r/Conservative • u/Outside_Ad_3888 Moderate Conservative • 1d ago
Flaired Users Only Potential reason behind Trumps tariff
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1ts5wJ6OfzA&si=CeHiKT0IpAsCuNihSaw this video related to the new tariffs and found it an interesting potential explanation of the end objective. While i do personally see some serious obstacles to this plan it would still explain the general vision, what's your take?
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u/ThrowawayMonster9384 Fiscal Conservative 1d ago
We'll see how this goes in time. The effects won't happen for a while. But I hope if there is income from tariffs, there's a balanced budget for once in over 2 decades.
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u/JustinCayce Constitutional Originalist 1d ago
6 decades, or more. Forget the smoke they try to blow up your ass, of you are deeper in debt at the end of the year than you were at the beginning there is no surplus and your budget isn't balanced. And our national debt records are easily found.
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u/ReformedBlackPerson Conservative 1d ago
If he does it’s a very clumsy plan. I thought he was a master negotiator, shouldn’t need to fuck the economy to get America’s way.
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u/Siciliantony1 Conservative 1d ago
Exactly. He's just looking to lose the house in 2026 and get impeached
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u/BercCoffee Conservative Boom 1d ago
We got fucked on the way into this mess. Gonna take some pain and time to undo.
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u/Hylian_Shield Conservative 1d ago
This.
We've been trending in the wrong direction too long. Politicians are reluctant to course correct when there is some pain involved.
Its time to rip off the band aid. And I'm tired of supporting countries who hate us or look down on us. They need us more than we need them. If we took a total isolationist stance today, it would hurt, but we'd recover in a few years, maybe a decade. I don't know how other countries would fare.
Also, the fear mongering (fear porn) is outrageous. You have those in power who will be butthurt who are trying to keep status quo because it benefits them.
Media will back democrats in any move that hurts Americans. (Obama inherited a bad economy, Biden has most job growth, etc)
Media will kick and scream bloody murder when a republican attempts to move the needle (lost jobs, egg prices, WW3, stock market dips, etc)
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u/Outside_Ad_3888 Moderate Conservative 14h ago
The problem with what you are describing is that it's very different to the video.
In the video what it essentially says is that he is using the tariffs as a leverage to convince countries, especially allies, into a new shared agreement where the US dollar will still be the reserve currency of the world but it will be lower allowing more export. But for this it says what is also needed is a lot of trust from allies and other countries such as was the case for Bretton woods. And there is the problem i see. Because as of right now the trust is at an all time low and tariffs can be the stick, but you won't convince someone to trust to bind your economies by only threatening their economies. You could offer to aid security but as of right now that will look a lot less credible.
The plan itself is dangerous but potentially possible and bold. But the moves to do it, apart from the tariffs, are terrible.
So on one side, assuming this is the plan, it's a very interesting plan with a lot of potential benefits. On the other side, the current actions to enact that plan are, from what i can see, failing.
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u/Hylian_Shield Conservative 12h ago
The only problem I can see is that the US dollar loses its reserve currency status. But I think that is a long shot. The fact that the US dollar is the reserve currency signifies a lot of trust. The world would be hard pressed to determine a different world currency given the uncertainty, or lack of strength, of other currencies.
The fact that the US dollar is the reserve currency has allowed the US to continue with poor economic policies (printing money, aka quantitative easing). Yes, the video describes the necessity of it, but that spigot has been turned on to max for other reasons.
Other countries are more dependent on having access to the US market. They also need the stability (more or less) of the US dollar. While there is potential for disaster, I just don't see it happening without mutually assured destruction of economies.
One problem that Trump isn't addressing is the US business environment. He attempted to do so in his first term, but less pronounced this time. The US business regulations need to be relaxed severely. Excessive regulations add to the cost of operation and they need to be lowered. Also, corporate income tax needs to be lowered or gotten rid of. Lowering the tax would incentivize businesses to come, no corporate tax we would see a flood of business relocating here.
If the idea is to reinvigorate industry in the US, then you can't purely use force. Businesses are like water that it seeks the path of least resistance. You must have positive incentives as well. You attract more flies with honey than vinegar.
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u/agk927 Moderate Conservative 1d ago
I'll say it, I don't think these tariffs are a bad thing. At least not yet
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u/Siciliantony1 Conservative 1d ago
Maybe more cons than pros at the moment
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u/Hylian_Shield Conservative 1d ago
Short term there are cons, but if it works its definitely a pro.
Only time will tell. It will depend on the attitudes of our allies, do they want to play ball, or it will hurt both countries. Honestly its a pride thing.
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u/Siciliantony1 Conservative 1d ago
Yes that's the major question. I'm not too worried about it as I am younger. My father has a good chunk in the market
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u/Hylian_Shield Conservative 1d ago
The markets ALWAYS win long term. For younger people, this is nothing. In fact, it's time to buy and gain.
For older people, living on fixed income, this could be concerning.
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u/NyJosh 2A Conservative 1d ago
Watch the video. Key points are that inflation is still there and needs to be squashed and even bigger is $9 Trillion in U.S. debt payments coming due this year that need to be refinanced. Rates need to be cut which means inflation must be pushed down quickly. At current interest rates, we'll end up paying a huge chunk of the federal budget every year just in interest on the debt. We already pay $1.2 TRILLION a year in interest payments (that's not even paying down the debt - just interest)!
Every time congress raises the debt ceiling, the problem gets worse until it will require massive tax hikes that will destroy the economy. The Soviet Union collapsed from EXACTLY this scenario, as did Greece's economy when they went bankrupt and needed massive bailouts from the EU.