Rooting for the victory of ISH + Torres + Flow is all I am rn!!!! Against everything and everyone!!!! 😭✊🏾

For me Best Animated Feature Film-: Spider Man Across The Spider-Verse.

It seems like all the awards are choosing Emma over Lily Gladstone.

I think Incident will win best short doc over I Am Ready, Warden. Anora will take BP, but Corbett will take best director over Baker. A Lien will take best live action short over The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent.

This is all subject to change as time goes by once the PGA’s, SAG’s, and BAFTA’s are announced. But for now, here it is.

Dune: Part Two

Winner of 3 Academy Awards:

Academy Award for Best Film Editing (Joe Walker)

Academy Award for Best Sound (Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett and Doug Hemphill)

Academy Award for Best Visual Effects (Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe and Gerd Nefzer)

Wicked

Winner of 2 Academy Awards:

Academy Award for Best Production Design (Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales)

Academy Award for Best Costume Design (Paul Tazewell)

The Substance

Winner of 1 Academy Award:

Academy Award for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (Frédérique Arguello, Stéphanie Guillon, Pierre-Olivier Persin and Marilyne Scarselli)

Anora

Winner of 3 Academy Awards:

Academy Award for Best Picture (Sean Baker, Alex Coco and Samantha Quan, producers)

Academy Award for Best Actress (Mikey Madison – Anora "Ani" Mikheeva)

Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay (Screenplay by Sean Baker)

The Brutalist

Winner of 4 Academy Awards:

Academy Award for Best Director (Brady Corbet)

Academy Award for Best Actor (Adrien Brody – László Tóth)

Academy Award for Best Original Score (Daniel Blumberg)

Academy Award for Best Cinematography (Lol Crawley)

Conclave

Winner of 1 Academy Award:

Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay (Screenplay by Peter Straughan; Based on the novel “Conclave” by Robert Harris)

The Wild Robot

Winner of 1 Academy Award:

Academy Award for Best Animated Feature Film (Chris Sanders and Jeff Hermann)

Emilia Pérez

Winner of 3 Academy Awards:

Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress (Zoe Saldaña – Rita Mora Castro)

Academy Award for Best International Feature Film (France – directed by Jacques Audiard)

Academy Award for Best Original Song ("Mi Camino" Music and Lyrics by Clément Ducol and Camille)

A Real Pain

Winner of 1 Academy Award:

Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor (Kieran Culkin – Benjamin "Benji" Kaplan)

I didn't watch much of foreign movies last year but I wanted know to whether this movie has any chance of winning because I think this is one of the best movies I watched last year.

If not then what are the other foreign movies that have a chance of winning I know Walter Salles's I'm Still Here is a crowd favorite but haven't watched it yet because of availability

Think about it—it's happened before. This oscar season is incredibly close and unpredictable. Could it be possible for them to tie?!? After all, it has happened at the 41st Academy Awards with Barbra Streisand and Katharine Hepburn.

Oscars love biopic. We already have 9 nominated for playing a u.s president and a few winning. I Se Obama being added to the list of winners. What are you thoughts

Am I the only one who thinks his acting was too much underrated ?

Each year I post my annual Oscars Predictions based on statistical analysis of a large number of predictors. This year has increased to a new record 26 predictors!

The model improves each year due to each predictor being weighted based on historic performance and this aggregated weighing determines the model's winner.

There has been some significant "improvements" (we will see, based on the results) to my modelling with a transfer from Google Sheets to inputs and outputs in R, with more advanced training on larger data sets.

https://imgur.com/a/oscars-2025-predicted-winners-9iWahvl

Everyone is betting in Wicked nomination for Best Picture, but for some reason, no one is actually considering Wicked as a serious contender for Best Picture, but the movie have everything in it's favour to win:

1 - It's a musical.

2 - It's a musical based on a play that is a massive part of the american culture and that the voters probably watched, in a moment when America HAVE a problem.

3 - It has a racial subtext that the Academy LOVES.

4 - The movie received a standing ovation from the voters in a private screening session.

5 - It has the potential to be the most nominated movie.

6 - The tradicionalists will like the fact that it was singing in live.

7 - Eveyone is predicting Conclave or The Brutalist to win, but i have to remember you guys why Shape of Water and Coda won: Because the world was BAD. With Hollywood literally catching fire and all the political issues going on, i don't see movies like Conclave or September 5 winning, the voters will prefer something to escape, like a fantasy musical movie in The Wizard of Oz universe or even a movie about a loved american singer.

Aside from it being a very safe pick, it just won at BAFTA and SAG. I could see it pulling an Argo and winning Picture, Adapted Screenplay, and Film Editing. Not out of the realm of possibility.

The only problem with predicting this is that 3 major candidates (Wallace & Grommit, Moana 2 and LotR) haven't had any release or reviews yet, so we have no way of knowing their quality. I could see Flow not getting nominated if at least 2 of those are very well received

Best Picture

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Jay Kelly
3. Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. F1
5. Hamnet
6. The Rivals of Amziah King
7. One Battle After Another
8. The Smashing Machine
9. Marty Supreme
10. Wicked: For Good

Alternatives: After the Hunt / Frankenstein / Bugonia

Best Director

1. Edward Berger - The Ballad of a Small Player
2. Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
3. Josh Safdie - Marty Supreme
4. Chloé Zhao - Hamnet
5. Noah Baumbach - Jay Kelly

Alternatives: Guillermo del Toro - Frankenstein / Benny Safdie - The Smashing Machine / / Luca Guadagnino - After the Hunt / Yorgos Lanthimos - Bugonia / Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value / Denzel Washington - Highest 2 Lowest / Miles Tellar - Eternity

Best Actor

1. Willem Dafoe - Late Fame
2. Oscar Isaac - Frankenstein
3. Dwayne Johnson - The Smashing Machine
4. Paul Mescal - Hamnet
5. Jeremy Allen White - Deliver Me from Nowhere

Alternatives: Timothée Chalamet - Marty Supreme / George Clooney - Jay Kelly / Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle after Another / Daniel Day-Lewis - Anemone / Jesse Plemons - Bugonia

Best Actress

1. Cynthia Erivo - Wicked: For Good
2. Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
3. Julia Roberts - After the Hunt
4. June Squibb - Eleanor the Great
5. Lucy Liu - Rosemead

Alternatives: Emma Stone - Bugonia / Amy Adams - At the Sea / Cate Blanchett - Father, Mother, Sister, Brother / Anne Hathaway - Mother Mary / Olivia Colman - The Roses / Margot Robbie - A Big Bold Beautiful Journey / Tessa Thompson - Hedda / Sydney Sweeney - Christy Martin Biopic / Jenna Ortega - Klara and the Sun / Elizabeth Olsen - Eternity

Best Supporting Actor

1. Michael Cera - The Phoenician Scheme
2. Colman Domingo - Michael
3. Stellan Skarsgård - Sentimental Value
4. Jeremy Strong - Deliver Me from Nowhere
5. Adam Sandler - Jay Kelly

Alternatives: Joe Alwyn - Hamnet / Keanu Reeves - Good Fortune / Sean Penn - One Battle After Another / Callum Turner - Eternity / Jeffrey Wright - Highest 2 Lowest

Best Supporting Actress

1. Ariana Grande - Wicked: For Good
2. Emily Blunt - The Smashing Machine
3. Greta Lee - Late Fame
4. Nia Long - Michael
5. Gwyneth Paltrow - Marty Supreme

Alternatives: Amy Adams - Klara and the Sun / Michaela Coel - Mother Mary / Penélope Cruz - The Bride! / Alicia Silverstone - Bugonia / Da'Vine Joy Randolph - Bugonia / Tilda Swinton - The Ballad of a Small Player / Emily Watson - Hamnet

(And the template I made in case anyone wants to use is)

For me I would say Transformers One due to how the movie bombed at the box office.

It was an absolute masterclass in conveying authority, confidence, charisma, for the purposes of achieving mass power.

How he uses charisma to get people to like him, then to play along with him, motivate them to do what he wants, pin people against each other, etc.

His character's rise to power is completely accredited to his charisma and body language with Machiavellian strategy.

Actors, salespeople, politicians, managers and leaders will study his performance for decades to come.

If this is not Oscar nomination worthy (for best supporting actor) then further stains the Oscar's credibility, not Denzel's performance.

Averaged rankings from various sources in an attempt to predict.

...

Sources:

https://www.goldderby.com/odds/graph/oscars-nominations-2025-predictions/best-picture/

https://variety.com/lists/2025-oscars-best-picture-predictions/1236048272/

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/2025-oscar-nomination-predictions-feinberg-forecast-1235957278/

https://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars/best-picture

https://www.covers.com/entertainment/academy-awards-oscars-odds

https://collider.com/2025-oscar-predictions-nominations/

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/18/movies/best-picture-predictions-oscars.html

Saw Conclave last night. I thought it was great. Did I think it was the best film this year? Probably not. But… it was great. I really really liked it.

And so, I can absolutely see Conclave winning BP this year. I have a feeling that it’ll win Cast in a Motion Picture at SAG, and then in that week leading up to the Oscars it’ll look like the front runner (seemingly kind of out-of-nowhere) and ultimately win.

Gives me 2016 Spotlight vibes kind of.

I seriously doubt Emilia Perez will actually win. That feels like it would be a completely on the nose spiteful pick for our current administration and after all the work that the Academy has done to try and gain voters/audiences’ trust back- and in this age of social media- it won’t happen.

I think The Brutalist should win- but I don’t think it will. Not because of the AI- let’s not get into a spiral about that- but because the experience of that movie was so geared towards seeing it in a theater and I just don’t think it’ll carry the same weight for voters at home. Which honestly, good…. If it wins I feel like people will always try to downplay how amazing it is. If it loses, I think it’ll stand the test of time.

Anora is excellent… but it won’t win. Sean will win the Original Screenplay Oscar though.

And, ultimately, I think the Academy will play it safe this year, award Conclave- which still has a tremendous message about politics, elections, leadership- and I think… maybe… the film will suffer for it in the long run. Folks may look at it as a weak choice in about 5/10 years. Maybe? IDK. Just anything but Emilia Perez please, and I’m sure I’ll get downvoted to high heaven for this take.