I've been screaming this to my partner for months and was looked at like a kid crying wolf. Lol. Wellp. I've also known it a going to test almost every major low point over the last year or so. This is normal recession/market crash levels right now. What does freak me out a little is there's no real strong support if we continue lower than 505.48 (current support level) and past 487.65. Then it's free-fall down to like 401.19
It’s always like that because no one has readjusted their positions. Now, will they…
Tariffs factored in, this selling seems coordinated, it’s too strong, and maybe multinational positions being liquidated, but my reason for that is we’re almost at covid % sell off. Ik Ik uncertainty etc
We’ll see how it plays out but seems like room to hit higher lows and maybe long road to recover near mid / end of term
Maybe. Probably. But could also be resolved next week and you’ll miss 1.6% increase in a 2 day run up before buying back it. Or more because you’re thinking “it could change tomorrow” so you miss 3%. Assuming you’re down 5% over the past 2 days you have a port of like 1.8M or something so missing that first 3% bull run you just missed out on 54k. Plus the future compounded 54k of value. You also made a taxable event. Which is a guaranteed 15% (or 20) hit. I think about selling every day lately. But the numbers don’t lie. You either time it absolutely perfectly or you’re going to probably lose. Maybe the mental lack of stress is worth the 54k or so. Which I totally get. Some people pay their mortgage off even though it’s not a deal to do so. Whatever floats your boat.
I didn't think that much about it, tbh. Simply thought Cheetos' policies will be destructive - they are/were - so I'm happy to pay some short-term capital taxes to maintain the overall level of my accounts.
To be clear, I'm still down from the 20% I stayed in, but feel it's the smart short-term move given I don't think we're anywhere near the bottom here
I’m not sure this is a time you need to think that much about it. Like you I sold out early. Actually in Mid December went to a 99.5% cash position.
With Covid there was great uncertainty. With this we can see the moves coming a mile away. You want to know what’s going to happen next? Read Politico.eu religiously. The stories there are all about the EU lining up against us. Asia lining up against us. Add alerts. Read every story. If you hear Trump or one of his fuck it’s is scheduling a news conference, get your buy orders ready and hit the button if the announcement is favorable.
You might miss by a few points but here’s the deal. Not one single credible trader is suggesting anyone buy into this bloodbath. Now is the time to preserve cap. Basically, it’s worth missing a couple points in the bounce than risk losing another 15%. And that risk is more likely than not given the current news out of Europe and Asia.
Resolved? LOL. As long as trump and musk are in the driver's seat, this thing won't ever be resolved. Trump went bankrupt 6x and he's selling meme coins. Open the floor and dig a hole.
Ye they thought politics is boring stuff let the retards take it for once, how bad can it get. Trust is broken no investor wanna go to the us right now, there needs to a major shift in trust to even start recovering. Next 4 year it only goes down or trump gets impeached.
What do you mean “resolved”? Our international friends no longer trust us. It’s not only about the tariffs. Who is going to trust any deal made with Trump? He is as untrustworthy as Putin. They are actively looking for other alternatives. No one trusts the U.S.
A lot of this was long term cap gains so not as bad as short term. But yes, there will be some pain at tax time next year. My main thing was to just keep a lot of my valuation. I don't think this market will be roaring back anytime soon and could see this be a long-term downturn which takes years to recover from.
Yep, I have been warning my partner as well. He sheepishly told me yesterday that it was the worst loss his accounts have seen in a long time. I had warned him that we should probably move things around weeks ago.
Oh no, a freefall to where the market was about 18 months ago. What a disaster. I guess if the market had went sideways for 18 months, like it has done many times, we'd all be losing our minds. Or maybe the market was temporarily overvalued and this is a normal correction.
We could see a temporary bullshit final rally to 550-560, but that would likely just be exit liquidity for the actual crash, that this may very well not be. 475, 447 and 403 are the major support areas with any real liquidity. Everything is such chaos that it's ludicrously difficult to know for sure, but if I had to bet, I would say we rally for a couple of weeks from here, then a bunch of "everything is great" news comes out, then the US bombs iran or something and that's all she wrote.
if the US dollar loses it's standing as global reserve currency, and the Petrodollar system is dismantled (80% of the world's oil sold exclusively for US dollars creating a multi trillion dollar international demand for US currency annually)... I don't think it's out of the question that we could fall all the way to tree fiddy or lower. I don't think a 60% market drop is out of the question.
There is. I keep watching analysts on tv talk about how it could change if the tariffs are just leverage to get improved trade deals. I think they are missing an important part of the picture. This administration broke the trust, that will not instantly be reversed even if all the tariffs were dropped tomorrow. We are looking at generational damage already as a best case scenario IMO.
If you guys impeached him and arrested him for his crime, it would restore confidence overnight. Maybe it can't be done until after the midterms but there is a possible fix.
Well, truely possible if you look at the chart from the 90s.. yet, discount the Inflation and number of shareholders. In 13xx dass, latest, could be less volatile 😅
Halfway there, just from tariffs, which keep increasing.
I'm sure it'll be fine in a few years, but people that were fully invested will likely take a year or two to make up for the losses. All because of one guy that thinks he can jedi mind trick tariffs.
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u/prolificbreather 1d ago
Still plenty of cliff left to fall off.