r/WallStreetbetsELITE • u/VK4000 • 13h ago
Discussion Usa Is Most Likely Heading For A Recession
You can choose to ignore what I say, but this is purely my opinion. The US markets are headed towards a death spiral. Historically, every time markets have gone down, they've eventually come back up. Why? Because the US is the world's number one economy, and nearly every global product and service is connected in some way to a US multinational that typically offers a superior experience.
But here's what's going to happen now: the rest of the world will simply stop trading and investing with the US and will instead begin forming Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with each other. They'll reduce their reliance on US goods, both for domestic companies and ordinary citizens, which will lead to less dependency on the dollar. As a result, the dollar’s value will decline significantly.
US companies' profits will tank, employees will earn less, and people will pay higher prices for goods due to tariffs on imports and exports. With reduced disposable income, spending on discretionary items will drop sharply, causing businesses to suffer even more during a recession intensified by tariffs.
Put simply, you can bully a couple of people in class and still remain popular, but when you bully everyone, you're going to get smacked hard.
The only way to avoid this scenario is if Trump faces immense pressure either from powerful corporate entities or his own cabinet to remove all tariffs, and this could potentially happen within the next few weeks. If his current policy continues for years, it could mark the end of US global dominance for a very long time. There would be no bounce back scenario. Instead, you'd see S&P 500 returns resembling the FTSE’s performance, which has only yielded around a 5% total return over the past six years.
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u/sacklunchbaby 13h ago
Wait till next week when everyday, in turn, the other nations start posting their tariffs.
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u/bowmanvillephil 10h ago
It's not only retaliatory tariffs, it is their citizens activity avoiding US products.
As a Canadian, we no longer view the US as a friendly place to do business. Enmass we are changing our economic habits to avoid US products and companies. This is not a flash in the pan or knee jerk reaction. It a calculated effort. It is a wholesale lifestyle change. Other nations are doing the same.
We see what the next 4 years, maybe 8 if the orange messiah changes your constitution, holds. I understand that 2/3 didn't vote for this, nevertheless you have to live the ramifications regardless.
I regret it has come to this. I empathize with your plight. I miss the old world.
Good luck.
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u/ub3rm3nsch 10h ago
Respectfully, Canadians have been making condescending comments about Americans long before Trump and the current trade wars. I think Trump (as much as I hate him) just made it easy for the latent anti-Americanism in Canada to become more manifest.
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u/bowmanvillephil 10h ago
There is always going to be a small voice that is in opposition to the beliefs of the masses. As a whole, we valued our former relationship. Did you expect all 40 million to bow down and tell you how great you are? Is there not not dissenting voice in your own country?
Let me remind you that every time the US has entered a conflict, Canada and Canadians have been there. We've shed blood for you.
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u/intheyear3001 9h ago
Small tweak, but I would change “for” to “with” in your last sentence. Sorry your big bro down south has gone full retard. Hopefully we can change our ways. I hate using that R word but that’s what we’ve done. All 27% that voted for Dumpy and the rest who sat out.
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u/Emma_232 9h ago
Most of the condescending remarks I've heard from Canadians were about things like your expensive health care or love of guns. That does not equate with anti-Americanism. Canadians still loved to buy American products and travel to America.
It is Trump's threats to our sovereignty and economy, and betrayal of our friendship that has turned Canadians against the U.S., at least against the current government.
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u/SnooPaintings3122 3h ago
Condescending comments?? Aren't you the ones calling everyone snowflakes for offended feelings? We still had CUSMA with you guys one of the most beneficial trade agreement on the planet, I would've thought that was enough to show friendship. lol ''you hurt my feelings'' give me a break
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u/angry_manatee 1h ago
Our opinion of America has been trending negative (along with the rest of the world) for decades. You act like it’s for no reason, though, but it was a direct response to stuff like the war on terror, which Canadians showed up for and died for. Also just a general response to the constant low-level condescension Americans have shown towards us and the rest of the world forever. We’re fed up and sick of all the narcissistic BS. You earned your bad rep, we haven’t just been secretly seething over here for no reason. We only became openly hostile when y’all started threatening a hostile takeover of our sovereign country.
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u/sepperpepper1974 6h ago
This! I miss the old world , too ! America was the place of my dreams, and I live in one of the richest countries in Europe.
We admired your universities, science, nature, diversity, and the way you do business, great companies. Endless possibilities. Tbh really the only thing that I could not understand were your gun laws and harm they were causing…..
Now everything mentioned above is attacked. I just can‘t get it….
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u/Coconuthangover 8h ago
If you think this is bad, wait until every day, countries form new trade relationships the excludes the US.
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u/tychaiitea 12h ago
Most definitely. We’re probably already in it.
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u/cpapp22 10h ago
Again I agree the outlook is certainly looking that way, but you can’t say we’re in a recession until it’s had two consecutive quarters with negative GDP. A recession needs to be a prolonged period of time - even if this does pan out and turn out to be a recession, it’s just wrong to say that we’re already in one when ATH was a little over 1 month ago
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u/Jamickeymick 8h ago
That’s not even true anymore. 2 consecutive quarters negative. I don’t think these people have a clue what they’re doing. We had 3 consecutive negative quarters recently with Biden. They make up stuff as they go to panic people. You panic you do stupid things and the rich come in and buy it up. If anything people should be pissed with the congressman and government that pissed away trillions trying to brainwash people with the same message of unity joy and transgenders are more important to them than you. They tried to replace us with illegals to keep themselves running the train on the American people. Look at Europe. All of Africa now lives in Europe replacing culture and history with fat pockets of cash for rich people.
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u/TMudin 1h ago
Sorry to tell ya buddy, but your racist and xenophobic comments won't make the US economy work.
Look at Europe. All of Africa now lives in Europe replacing culture and history with fat pockets of cash for rich people.
Besides the obvious racism, the only government with a billionaire working for it is the USA. Dude, this whole "the elite is work" doesn't work anymore. Trump is actively working for (and working with!) the billionaires. Economic inequality is far greater (and will grow even more) in the USA rather than in Europe.
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u/MilitantlyWokePatrio 13h ago
Not an opinion bro, it's a fact. You are spot on. I'd even say depression, but there's a lot of room in recession so I won't go that far, but yeah, this is REALLY cataclysmic economically, particularly for how speculative our markets were and still are.
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u/Hamlerhead 11h ago
I dunno. It's only been two days but I feel like the Republican party is gonna lose patience even faster than MAGA. Even on Fox News (which I watch because I'm a glutton for punishment) the talking heads are starting to rub their foreheads. The whole point of tariffs is for smaller economies to protect themselves. For the love of Christ, we are the United States of the Empire of America! Why the fuck would we stoop to be level with the likes of Cambodia? It makes no sense.
Also, everything's computer.
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u/Artistic-Banana734 10h ago
We literally ran the world. MAGA saying countries are taking advantage of us. Fine — China? Sure. Vietnam? Maybe? Mexico? Maybe?
Australia? Canada? European Union? JAPAN?! Absolutely fucking NOT.
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u/legshampoo 8h ago
and even if they are, we still ran the world so who fucking cares the relationship is working out in our favor
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u/team_ti 9h ago
Disagree. Trump's approval is still high
This is why the US is fucked. Even on fundamental truths eg tariffs are bad, the Earth isn't flat, there will be disagreement among Americans so much so that coordinated action necessary to remedy this colossal loss of confidence is impossible.
And there is zero consensus support in any US institutions. The kind of support also necessary to guide the US away from the precipice.
Thoughts and prayers
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u/_nanite_ 12h ago
Who the hell is Usa?
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u/jbutler60 13h ago
Unfortunately, what makes everyone mad as it’s 1000% avoidable and caused by one individual acting as our dictator, senate and house should be involved with this level of decision. Wish they had the balls to standup, tariffs are not the solution
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u/SuspiciousSnotling 13h ago
They won’t, they will change the definition of the word and therefore avoid it XD
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u/watch-nerd 10h ago
Lawsuits have already started:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/04/first-lawsuit-filed-against-trumps-tariffs-00273646
As for stock returns:
I hold VT (global stock index), so I'm already used to getting the global average.
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u/tinymeatsnack 10h ago
We are in the recession now
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u/cpapp22 10h ago
No, we’re not (yet). A recession is accepted to be two consecutive quarters with negative GDP. It needs to be prolonged, and we just aren’t there….. yet anyway
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u/tinymeatsnack 9h ago
Yes, but when you define it as a “recession” by those standards you are reflecting. To say we are currently in one is accurate because this will be what we look back on and call a recession.
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u/shivaswrath 10h ago
It's Brexit.
Yes.
3 years later we will have no leverage to renegotiate FTAs.
Next congress will have to eliminate the threat of EO driven tarrifs for anyone to trust us again.
F him and his goons.
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u/MashedPotatoesDick 10h ago
When they say Make America Great Again, the "Great" is used the same way as the Great Depression.
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u/Choopster 6h ago
No shit... Have you also recently discovered that the sky is blue and fire is hot?
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u/johnlambshead 2h ago
From my English perspective, important as it is, Americans focus too much on the economic angle at the expense of the political. America has dominated the Western World because it was the only first world economy not trashed by the German wars: Britain emerged from the Napoleonic wars similarly. That dominance continued through political leadership, soft power. The smaller first world nations found the USA an agreeable hegonomist. You never meddled with our internal politics and we got economic and military security in return for loyalty. We followed your political line in international matters and contributed forces to your wars.
Now, I hear nothing but screaming abuse from American politicians sneering at us for being part of the American hegonomy. You have declared economic war on us and threatened military attacks against us. We are apparently your enemies and Russia is your new ally.
This is damage that cannot be removed by changing a few trading rules back to parity. The trust is gone and it will take generations to revive if ever.
In a few weeks, Trump has destroyed something that took decades to create.
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u/mogambuu 13h ago
you know bottom is in sight when total gloom and doom messages start to show up
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u/ErrorcMix 10h ago
I think we are going to hit high 400s then probably flat for a while then maybe a relief rally?
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u/Artistic-Banana734 10h ago
We don’t even know what the response will be yet. Australia was a MAJOR trading partner with a FREE TRADE AGREEMENT and a SURPLUS. And they got 10% tariffs.
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u/Aromatic_Theme2085 12h ago
Offers a typical superior experience like what? Other than software and rockets I don’t see how other stuff are superior. Phone? Lol
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u/Lord_Vesuvius2020 10h ago
When you think about the consequences of the Trump administration’s actions since January 20 you also realize that there’s no “reset” possible. The damage cannot be un-done except perhaps many years from now. I am not even sure when turning the corner is possible. And what makes it worse is that the tariff policy grift has only begun. Trump will entertain “phenomenal offers” from tariff countries. He can jerk the market around at will. All of us will have to figure out if there is any way we can keep investing in the US market and actually make money. Your comparison of the future S&P v the FTSE is exactly right. And there could be more grift-related “carve outs” for US businesses that agree to bend the knee. Right now it would seem that the opportunities will be there but only internationally.
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u/KeyInvestigator3741 10h ago
We need to crash the dollar and bring back manufacturing jobs so we can compete with Cambodia. It’s obvious.
This is the only way the poor whites will survive. They won’t accept anything else.
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u/gibbonsgerg 9h ago
Worse, GDP will go down so much that tax revenue will be insufficient to cover the national debt. Figure out what happens then.
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u/Glad-Conversation377 7h ago
The sarcastic part is, this is not necessary. Just imagine if there is no such tariff bullshit, where would be the position now. The orange 🍊 retard tank the market DELIBERATELY
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u/portezbie 7h ago
I think people are also really underestimating the impact soft power and simple goodwill can have.
Regardless of tariffs, it seems like people are really losing interest in doing business with us, diplomacy with us, and even buying our goods.
It's not looking great.
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u/DamnTheDan 7h ago
One thing you forgot.. every country wants US consumers money. We spend it way more than any other. Also, we spend it on the dumbest shit. We are THE customer and the customer is always right (to an extent) We still have quite a bit of pull on the worlds goods/services
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u/Fox_Technicals 7h ago
If there’s no recession from this what is the motivation to ever short anything ever again
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u/NuclearPopTarts 7h ago
We've been in a recession and the media hid it to push VP Word Salad's stalled campaign across the finish line
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u/Pietes 6h ago
look, US has about three weeks to dump trump, after that it's irreversibly fucked. my advice would be to start raising hell now, because some systemic black swan may start toppling banks any minute now, and once that happens, you've either nailed all of maga to a wall or the rest of workd is done talking with you
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u/jayleia 4h ago
The only way to avoid this scenario is if Trump faces immense pressure either from powerful corporate entities or his own cabinet to remove all tariffs, and this could potentially happen within the next few weeks.
Yes and no. We can avoid immediate apocalyptic depression if things change fast, and I do mean FAST...end of the month at the LATEST fast, end of next week might ALREADY be too late. But either way, everyone is pulling away from us, at least trying to become less dependent on our ketamine-addled country and even if we elected a normal person next time, they're always going to remember those times when we went crazy.
We went from being the only hyperpower down through superpower and declining in three months...with most of that happening in the course of thirty minutes.
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u/delulubacha 3h ago
The US is the world’s biggest investment beta, you can’t reduce this to zero. What are you going to put your money in? lol all this absolute pure shyte about Japanese corporate governance reform and how they’re on track for a come back …. No. European equities? No. How much money in your equity portfolio are you going to allocate to banks and fkin utilities. What was the last great tech company to come out of Europe? In saying this I do not disagree with your call on US recession, but fuck off with the “no one will never invest in the USA crap”. Like we’re in shit times at the moment, but it doesn’t allow you a permit to go full retard. Just chill.
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u/HeftyCompetition9218 2h ago
Don’t forget that since the repealing of the Dodd Frank act small and medium sized banks across the US have had almost no oversight and are ludicrously overleveraged
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u/AdScary1757 1h ago
I'm doubting the jobs numbers were legitimate. I get text messages from recruiters weekly and they be 7 or 8 openings. Now I get 1 every month or 2 with 3 openings. I'm fully employed but lije to keep an eye on the market because I'd love to move to either coast for the right offer.
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u/PiingThiing 12h ago
If this is part of some plan, was DOGE's real purpose to preemptively scrap every department and scheme that wasn't going to be affordable after the crash?
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u/Other_Block_1795 11h ago
I hope so. Maybe will teach them a lesson.
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u/cool-beans-yeah 11h ago
This is going to affect every country in the world, not just the US.....
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u/Commercial_Regret_36 2h ago
At least our governments are working to mitigate it rather then push us further underwater
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u/Majestic_Republic_45 10h ago
The US is the World’s largest market. U can’t be successful without selling in the US. China will collapse wo the US market. Europe auto industry decimated, Canadian industry decimated, etc. We're going to take some lumps too, but in the long run, we’ll be fine. I say this being down 400k in 3 days.
This is more of a hate Trump sub than a Wall St sub, but Countries will come to the table. The smart ones will do quickly (Vietnam). Every Asian Country that comes to the table is a huge threat to China’s industrial base. Wait until unemployment goes up in China and inventory is piled to the roof.
US tariffs were some of the lowest in the World prior to Trump implementing reciprocal tariffs. Your alternative was to do nothing and watch this Country go 50T in debt, unable to pay our bills, the dollar destabilized, and the US left bankrupt.
How would the market look in that scenario? The problem with US citizens is we think we can never run out of money and that’s a fallacy
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u/Radrezzz 9h ago
All we can do is hope that somehow you’re right. Maybe the shadow government figured it out that this was in fact necessary and chose Trump to be the bogeyman. But damn if it doesn’t suck and wouldn’t it be great if there was a more gradual process. Maybe we could have emphasized healthcare reform and reduced military spending instead. Still, there isn’t much this administration does to instill confidence in their abilities. How long will we bleed?
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u/JonInOsaka 7h ago
Please explain how other countries lowering their tariffs on us balances the U.S. budget? Also seeing how the US Dollar was the strongest currency in the entire world at the time Trump took office, how was the dollar "destabilized"?
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u/raeninatreq 7h ago
I can't speak for every country, but for Australasian countries Trump's tariffs don't affect them that much. To put in perspective, America buys 3% of Australian's steel exports, and 19% of wine.
In comparison, China buys 76% of Australian's steel exports, and 40% of wine.
Australia and China were in a trade war a few years ago. Australia survived it just fine before China caved when their winter got bad and Australia's government changed to Labor.
Trump's trying to bargain with the Australian government, but the rejection of the lowering of PBS and bio-security laws is bipartisan.
American isn't the biggest player; China and Japan are. And now those two nations are working with South Korea to become an Asian powerhouse... And if Canada and Europe trade with Asia too...I really don't see what we need America for.
(Except for maybe movies and TV shows, because they're still really good).
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u/Commercial_Regret_36 2h ago
Plenty of successful companies don’t sell in the US. China and the EU won’t collapse without the US. The EU single market would actually be the world’s largest market.
So, no worries. I remember last time Americans were adamant that China would end up in civil unrest after US soy was cut off. China just bought it from Brazil instead. That sense of over inflating your importance rings just as true this time.
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u/toxiccortex 13h ago
They had to own the libs ya know