r/boxoffice • u/DemiFiendRSA Studio Ghibli • Mar 07 '25
Japan Wicked opened in Japan today with est. $1M. Eyeing $5M this weekend & Lifetime gross Box Office Projection $40M . WoM very similar Cinemascore ( A)
101
u/Motohvayshun Mar 07 '25
Part 2 will be one of the most interesting stories to follow this year aside from Avatar 3.
With how viral happy this property is, I can’t wait to see the press tour, which I think after a year of holding space memes and the like will be epic.
Also, more people will be familiar with the property.
19
u/Block-Busted Mar 07 '25
Also, we'll see if Wicked: For Good somehow manages to win Best Picture even though I know that the chance of that happening isn't particularly high.
99
u/Icy_Smoke_733 Studio Ghibli Mar 07 '25
That's a great number. If projections hold, Wicked should finish with around $770 - $775 million globally.
29
u/Blue_Robin_04 Mar 07 '25
Unfortunately, there's nothing else for it to crawl past since it already beat Dune 2.
13
u/Dynopia Mar 07 '25
It will get re-released later this year and double features. If it does well enough now in Japan, it can hit $800m later this year.
6
u/dicloniusreaper Mar 07 '25
You realise that people have been asking for Infinity War to be in a double feature with Endgame ever since it failed to pass The Force Awakens and the gross never increased, right? And you realise that double features tend not to be wide releases, just like how individual cinemas re-releasing movies now and then don't increase the grosses for even classic movies? You also realise that the gross for a wide double release goes to the new(er) movie and that the newer movie is not gonna split the only slightly more expensive ticket price gross with another movie, even a direct predecessor?
How long are you all going to push this narrative? Ever since the 1st movie came out? Double feature Inside Out 2 with Moana 2 too despite being completely unrelated, so that IO2 can suck away Moana 2's gross and leech off it.
You want it to increase, it has to be a substantial, heavily marketed standalone re-release.
2
u/filmyfanatic Mar 07 '25
I’m crossing my fingers for $800M. My OCD will keep bothering me tho that nothing finished in the $600M zone last year, lol
-3
28
u/ThermoFlaskDrinker Mar 07 '25
$775 million is probably a profit loss when you factor in marketing, movies need to clear $2 billion gross to be considered profitable now /s
36
2
u/LaerysTargaryen WB Mar 07 '25
On what basis? Profitability is tied to budget and as far as that goes Wicked has earned back the production budget for both ($300M) and its own promo ($150M).
20
u/tarallelegram Mar 07 '25
it was sarcasm
15
5
1
6
u/classicman123 Mar 07 '25
What's been a nice surprise as well is this movie has been raking in the dough on ancillaries. They will likely make a profit on those as well.
44
u/Parking_Cat4735 Mar 07 '25
Not bad. At least 750m is secured along with its top 5 finish for 2024.
38
u/Lord_Cockatrice Mar 07 '25
Why the long wait?
68
u/Forward-Piece-8421 Mar 07 '25
i’m pretty sure lots of movies get far out release dates in japan, i’m not sure why.
20
u/TackoftheEndless Mar 07 '25
Japan doesn't have an issue with Piracy because they heavily enforce their Piracy laws. People have gone to prison for years for violating them.
They still have 6 month theatrical runs for certain movies (Evangelion Thrice Upon A Time, Demon Slayer, Godzilla One) as a result of this as well.
There's no reason to rush to get it in theatre's there when there's no fear of them getting the programming elsewhere.
1
u/Iwanttoeatkakigori 29d ago
Maybe not piracy, but I do know a lot of people used VPN to stream it already, and some who went to nearby Korea to watch it. They are so slow with some things here.
I have this theory that it's to tie in the cherry blossoms which are coming out now with the movie release (Ariana wore them at the Japan premiere, it's all over the poster) and academic school year ends around now.
-1
u/r_gg Mar 07 '25 edited Mar 07 '25
Japan doesn't have an issue with Piracy because they heavily enforce their Piracy laws. People have gone to prison for years fo
What are you smoking. Japan is one of the earliest adopters of online piracy and p2p sharing.
Their long theatrical runs have little to do with the "absence" of piracy, especially when those runs are mainly fueled by repeated viewing from hardcore fans trying to show support and collect limited promotional goods.
5
u/DeliveryKnown6844 Mar 08 '25
Since 2017 japan has enforced some of the strictest anti piracy laws and measures in the world. It’s known as “the law” in japan. It’s also a criminal offense not a civil (like 99% of the world), with anyone caught being fined or imprisoned for up to 10 years. It is heavily enforced that a lot of people are scared of it and now they’re using AI to crack down on the last 5-10% of people still pirating
0
27d ago
[deleted]
1
u/TackoftheEndless 27d ago
The Evangelion remakes did not have HD camrips near release I know this because I kept up with both. Thrice got a single camrip that stopped being shared around after Khara showed they actually arrested someone in Japan for it before.
The manga leaks come from Korea and China and not the Japanese physicals. These are all facts anyone who actually watches anime and manga knows.
1
26d ago
[deleted]
1
u/TackoftheEndless 26d ago
So you're actually just lying at this point because I kept up with thrice upon a time daily until the day it officially released in English, all 9 years, and I know about the camrip I also know it wasn't readily available and no one tried again after one guy got arrested for it in March 2021.
https://forum.evageeks.org/thread/20651/Official-Waiting-For-Camrip-Thread/ there was a whole thread on the biggest evangelion fansite about how hard it was to find a cam rip. Come on.
You can't just say things that aren't true and ir makes them true.
28
u/willozsy Mar 07 '25
Usually it's translations and dubs. Japanese voice actors are also very busy with anime TV shows and movies, so to get the right VA for a movie is also a pretty time consuming task.
42
u/scheeeeming Mar 07 '25
Thats not the case with this, Wicked was translated and dubbed in so many countries for immediate release. Japan isn't some special case that makes it way more difficult to dub.
Its about screens and how packed Japans calendar is compared to how many screens they have. Japanese films get priority, American films usually have to wait a while
12
u/RunnerComet Mar 07 '25
Usually it's translations and dubs
That's really insane take, mate. Dubs are finished before movie is released all over the world and in Japan if they want to release movie on same date. Japan just doesn't care for the most part about foreign movies so much+internal product is more important and profitable+piracy is almost non-existant.
1
u/Apprehensive_Fan_144 Mar 07 '25
This is it. It’s similar in reverse too-new Demon Slayer movie getting a release in September in the US instead of July like Japan cause why on earth release that in between Superman/Jurassic/Fantastic four trifecta instead of a slower period where it might perform pretty well for itself instead.
27
u/scheeeeming Mar 07 '25
Japan only has 3,653 screens for over a thousand titles a year. For comparison the US has 40,000 screens for a lot less than 1000 titles.
And then domestically Japanese films make more on average than Hollywood movies do. So their films get priority on these screens
7
7
18
u/RepeatEconomy2618 Mar 07 '25
Japan usually waits a few months, sometimes even a year until they get Western Films, it's just always been that way
6
u/invaderark12 Mar 07 '25
Works the opposite way too, most japanese movies take a few months to come out here too
2
u/Apprehensive_Fan_144 Mar 07 '25
If at all. A lot of Japanese films, even anime oriented Never get outside Japan / other Asian countries, let alone Japan ie. Detective Conan last I heard was 3 movies behind in the states where they go direct to video and idk if a Doraemon movies ever been properly released, two of the biggest franchises every single year at JP box office.
3
u/invaderark12 Mar 07 '25
Yeah, although its gotten better. Most big anime franchises at least get limited releases in US theaters, Godzilla was really successful too, even Gurren Lagann the Movie and the upcoming Hatsune Miku movie based on a mobile game got US releases. Besides Godzilla Minus One, theyre usually super limited tho.
13
u/CinemaFan344 Universal Mar 07 '25
Japan could push this to a worldwide gross of $780mil, which would also get the film close to entering the top 100 worldwide grossers of all time, unadjusted.
11
u/DirkNowitzkisWife Mar 07 '25
This might end up hitting $770 million, which is quite good, won’t pass despicable me, but still a great number
32
u/MoonMan997 Best of 2023 Winner Mar 07 '25
So $750m+ is locked with $800m on the table but very unlikely. Its fifth place position for the year is also now secured.
The DOM/OS won’t look nearly as bad as fellow DOM-heavy 2024 releases such as Twisters and Beetlejuice Beetlejuice when all said and done.
15
u/HM9719 Mar 07 '25
“Wicked” is about to turn from stage musical into a billion dollar movie franchise (since we have the second film coming) if momentum keeps going strong with this release in Japan.
8
26
u/Takemyfishplease Mar 07 '25
Part 2 with a year of buildup could be huge
29
u/NotTaken-username Mar 07 '25
The issue is the first half of Wicked is considered superior to the second half. I think Wicked: For Good will have a significantly larger opening weekend than the first, but weaker legs and ultimately earn slightly more.
I’m thinking $155M OW / $510M DOM / $880M WW
20
u/BackpackofAlpacas Mar 07 '25
We haven't seen what they did to the story yet. They did add an all new song. The first half was filled out a lot more than the play so I guess it depends on if the book finishes strong or not.
11
u/Sliver__Legion Mar 07 '25
The first half is considerably easier in that you can do a very faithful adaptation (as they did) and get a very satisfying narrative (as they did). For part 2 either gotta go not so faithful, or hew to the source warts and all, either of which have their own risks.
15
u/SubatomicSquirrels Mar 07 '25
I think they'll improve on the second act, but it's just not as much fun. It's a darker plotline. Idk, I'm a big fan and I'm rooting for it, but I'm not getting my hopes up
3
u/Cole-Spudmoney Mar 08 '25
The stage show’s second act just kind of skims over the events of The Wizard of Oz because it basically assumes “You bought a ticket to see this show, so you almost certainly know this already.” But I think the second movie’s actually going to integrate those events into its story properly, and give Dorothy an actual role rather than keeping her offscreen.
Not only because it’d fill in the runtime, but also because I noticed the first movie doesn’t assume that the audience has seen The Wizard of Oz and provides enough context for everything that you don’t need to. So I think the second movie will do the same.
9
11
u/Dynopia Mar 07 '25
Knew it would do well, now al the idiots saying Mufasa was overtaking Wicked will shut up.
8
u/Mediocre-Fox-8681 Mar 07 '25
Even just a couple weeks ago I saw people saying that. Pretty wild tbh. Mufasa won’t even get to where Wicked is now, let alone to where Wicked will end up with Japan.
2
u/TheCoolKat1995 Universal 29d ago
Eyeing $5M this weekend & Lifetime gross Box Office Projection $40M,
You love to see it.
0
-9
u/Purple_Quail_4193 Pixar Mar 07 '25
Seeing this get just 40m knowing what other movies have made there just seems so average. I know the yen isn’t as strong as what it once was but still
30
u/Icy_Smoke_733 Studio Ghibli Mar 07 '25
$40 million from Japan will make it the 2nd biggest overseas market for Wicked. Only behind $76 million from U.K, and above Australia's $30 million.
Overall, a good performance.
12
u/Once-bit-1995 Mar 07 '25 edited Mar 07 '25
You already put the answer to why this isn't as high in your post. The yen is considerably weaker, we can't pretend that isn't the case. The admissions to get to 40 million are very very good and impressive. There's nothing we can do about the conversion rate being what it is compared to other comparitive musicals that released years and years ago.
Edit: typo
12
u/Mediocre-Fox-8681 Mar 07 '25
A better comparison would be Wonka, since that movie came out a little over a year ago when the yen was already in decline. Wonka made 2.9M opening weekend and 15M total in Japan. Seems like Wicked is performing pretty well.
6
u/Apprehensive_Fan_144 Mar 07 '25
Are you looking at recent years though? 40 million USD is huge in Japan, especially for a Hollywood film. Last few years (I believe since Top Gun Maverick, which blew up here) nothing has gotten to 40 and only a handful got to 30. The reality is a movie even getting 10mil in Japan from Hollywood is a big deal nowadays.
•
u/AutoModerator Mar 07 '25
Nominations for the Best of 2024 awards are open now. Come and vote, and get a special flair. Best of 2024
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.