r/boxoffice • u/LinkSwitch23 20th Century • 1d ago
Domestic Looks like $46M+ FRI for #MinecraftMovie, giving it $57M opening day. Expecting $150M or so weekend.
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u/splooge-clues 1d ago
From ~$40M OW from Day 1 Tracking to potential $150M+. What the Jurassic World Inside Out 2 Fuck.
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u/nicolasb51942003 WB 1d ago
I don't know if this will be the lowest predicted industry forecast for an opening weekend. In terms of absolute number, there have been many as most breakouts are under predicted. This, when it comes to percentage, could be a record.
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u/TheEmpireOfSun 1d ago
Lowest predicted only by clueless people. It's fucking Minecraft, probably the most popular game in history of gaming.
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u/Old-Score3295 1d ago
Jack Black could also have another $100+ million opening weekend for Super Mario 2 movie next year.
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u/ThatWaluigiDude Paramount 1d ago
The fact that this guy will soon have his name on the 3 highest grossing videogame movies of all time
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u/nicolasb51942003 WB 1d ago
I'm surprised Universal didn't talk about the sequel during their Cinemacon panel in terms of story details and whether Chris Pratt and the others are returning, along with some new additions, considering it's a year away.
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u/Vchipp2_0 23h ago
I think Nintendo still has final said on it's IPs. Didn't The Legend of Zelda get randomly announced on some Nintendo App they just launch.
And that the original Mario movie was also announced during a Nintendo Direct, along with casting and maybe even for a trailer?
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u/XenonBug 1d ago
$100m+ for the Mario sequel is pretty much gonna happen. Probably less than the first film though.
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u/reesesmilkshake577 Pixar 1d ago
Stuff like this is what makes tracking the box office numbers fun sometimes
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u/Playful-Push8305 :affirm: Affirm 1d ago
Yeah, really happy to see it!
This is why I got into this shit, sucks that we've spent so much of recent years dwelling on failures.
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u/blownaway4 1d ago edited 1d ago
Mother of god! It's gonna beat Mario's opening, granted that was deflated as it was 5 day, if it had a traditional release it would have been close to ~180m. Still this is an absolutely insane number and I don't see this opening being topped this year outside of maybe Lilo and Stitch or Wicked II (Avatar 3 will be deflated due to holidays). Crazy
Also this will have a 300m global opening from the looks of it. 800m is already locked with a very realistic shot at a billion imo. Will be Warner bros biggest film of the year
The gaming era might just be upon us.
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u/GapHappy7709 Marvel Studios 1d ago edited 1d ago
The children yearn for the mines
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u/Old-Score3295 1d ago
This is so wild. Jack Black with another box office hit.
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u/GapHappy7709 Marvel Studios 1d ago
Kung Fu Panda, Jumanji, Super Mario, School of Rock. Now Minecraft!
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u/dremolus 1d ago
Don't forget King Kong, Shark Tale, Tropic Thunder, Goosebumps, and even Anchorman
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u/asheraze 1d ago
If we’re just naming good jack black movies that made money gotta mention Nacho Libre, high fidelity, shallow hal, the holiday - I even really enjoyed House with a clock in its walls for what it was.
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u/nicolasb51942003 WB 1d ago edited 1d ago
If people weren't on the $1B train before even when the trailers came out, they'll most definitely hop on it now.
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u/WebHead1287 1d ago
This was a weird one where I could see a complete flop or a billion. I genuinely had no gauge.
Saw it tonight and every seat was sold (very abnormal for my area). The crowd also reacted in Endgame levels ways. I wish I was exaggerating but there were times I couldn’t hear the movie over the shouting.
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u/SalvaPot 1d ago
"Gen Z's Avengers" was not the take I was expecting from this movie.
Minions, Five Nights at Freddy's and now Minecraft proved young audiences are worth pursuing, if that rumored skibidi toilet movie gets off the ground it's going to make money too.
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u/EnergyAmbitious9313 1d ago
...Do people think Gen Z didn't grow up with the Avengers?
I'm literally one of the youngest Gen Z'ers lol those were our movies.
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u/HolidaySpiriter 1d ago
People don't want to believe part of Gen Z is nearly 30 years old.
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u/hotacorn 1d ago
Yeah I’m the older edge of Gen Z.
This is not okay to say out loud. Honestly please don’t do it again.
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u/dremolus 1d ago
Gen Z to the internet is everyone born after year 2000 even though starting this year, every baby is in Gen Beta
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u/SpaceOrianted 1d ago
Same as millennials were until about 2015. Gen z’s youngest will be 20+ years old with the oldest nearing 40 and everyone will still think of them as the young people that are super weird and different. It happened with millennials, and now some of them are in their mid 40’s and the youngest are just shy of 30. It’ll happen to you!
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u/Training_Pirate1000 1d ago
It’s crazy. I was a teenager during endgame, going to the movies with friends, etc. Not all of us are little tykes.
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u/EnergyAmbitious9313 1d ago
The takes on this subreddit make me realize that this subreddit (and reddit as a whole) skews much older than I thought lol. Millennials and up seem to be pretty clueless about Gen Z and under, especially in regards to what they like
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u/ghoonrhed 1d ago
Welcome to the world of Millennials 10 years ago or 5 years ago haha. It happens to every gen. Most people aren't really aware of the age differences inside each generation.
I still remember articles blaming a bunch of our gen for what you guys were doing (literally teenagers) and some had to remind them that millennials are already reaching 40 with kids.
I mean hell, the original comment is even't correct because Minecraft IS a millennial thing too. Not just "Gen Z".
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u/Unlucky-Bid-2601 1d ago
Literally you have to be a completely out of touch with anyone under 25 if you even slightly considered that this could have flopped
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u/lostbelmont 1d ago
This sub downvoted me to hell when i said that looking like shit won't care to kids and families and this will be a hit
At least we all agree that Lilo & Stitch will be a massive hit
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u/blownaway4 1d ago
This sub is low key underestimating Lilo and Stitch still. 2000s nostalgia is red hot and its releasing at the perfect time. I see it being their biggest live action remake ever outside of TLK.
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u/WebHead1287 1d ago
Im only 27. I was there when Minecraft was alpha which is why I had interest. I remember using the computers in 7th grade science class to play it while my old ass teacher slept.
That being said I honestly didn’t realize it had such a resounding impact even after I moved on from it. Then mix in how silly it looked? The choice to have hybrid live action?
I don’t think I thought it could have a Snow white performance but absolutely thought it could lose a little.
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u/Unlucky-Bid-2601 1d ago
It has nothing to do with anything other than the fact this movie has been going viral for the last two weeks among that age group
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u/mertag770 1d ago
Similar boat. I have even played it with friends off and on over the years (including a server that lasted 3 months last year). I didn't expect this based on the trailer to do well.
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u/Thrbt52017 1d ago
I’m a mom of the youngest of Gen Z and a Gen alpha. When the trailer came out they both expressed no desire to see the movie, even going so far as to say that the clips made them “uncomfortable” (I guess seeing squares mixed with real life threw them off or something I dunno, I chalked it up to a vague uncanny valley like feeling)
Over the last month or so though they’ve been walking around my house yelling “chicken jockey”. Among other random quotes I am guessing are from the movie. Yesterday they asked if I could take them to see it this weekend. I bought tickets for Sunday. I would say I’ll come back with a review, but I’m pretty easy to please if I get a few laughs and the kids actually watch an entire movie so I wouldn’t trust my judgement.
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u/Spiritual-Smoke-4605 1d ago
This movie was never going to flop. Unless you made a Minecraft movie that looked exactly like the game (I.e. just gameplay of the actual game that somehow was turned into a movie), any kind of Minecraft movie, good or bad, it was always going to make a billion, especially in a month with absolute no competition for 4 weeks straight
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u/Hot-Marketer-27 Best of 2024 Winner 1d ago
What if- what if this gets an A+ CinemaScore?
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u/nickrashell 1d ago
My gauge is if I am organically going to see it because of my kids. Last movie they hounded me to see was the Mario movie, before that it was minions rise of gru.
If it reaches my kids, it’s probably gonna break a $1b.
We saw it today, I love Minecraft, and I am not above a kids movie, but man I thought it was horrendous outside of a few jokes.
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u/myfajahas400children 1d ago
Honestly, I feel like the first trailer disheartened most of the $1B believers initially.
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u/jerem1734 1d ago
I got on the train when I saw that it managed to get mediocre reviews like Mario did
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u/Alive-Ad-5245 A24 1d ago
I'm still not on the $1B train, though I'm glad movie theatres are getting paid.
Moana 2 opened to $225m 5-day DOM and had a slightly better but still similar verified audience RT score (86% compared to 83%) and only hit a billion by the skin of its teeth and it had holiday legs to help it.
I still think Minecraft ends up at $800-$900ish WW still
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u/Hot-Marketer-27 Best of 2024 Winner 1d ago
Also this will have a 300m global opening from the looks of it. 800m is already locked with a very realistic shot at a billion imo.
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u/blownaway4 1d ago edited 1d ago
Those are largely pretty solid predictions imo sad to see yours are one of the most downvoted in the thread lol. You will be closer than most with Minecraft. I don't see that at all for Michael but maybe you could be on to something.
I'd add 200m to Wicked II, and Swap Lilo with Zootopia 2 (controversial opinion).
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u/Hot-Marketer-27 Best of 2024 Winner 1d ago
Michael might not even come out this year so I feel like that's the one I'll be most off on. Plus, recent reports on its troubled production are concerning.
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u/AgentOfSPYRAL WB 1d ago edited 1d ago
I’m just glad Superman isn’t expected to carry WB’s 2025 on his back anymore.
Still some pressure of course but being in a position where it was WBs only movie with a 800m+ ceiling was not doing it any favors.
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u/Cannaewulnaewidnae 1d ago
This might be the crossover point, where everyone stops expecting superhero movies to do a billion and game movies replace them as Hollywood's cash cow
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u/AgentOfSPYRAL WB 23h ago
I do think we are in the X Men / Blade / Spider-Man era of videogame movies, we’ll see if it can make the jump to the MCU/DCEU era.
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u/DaltonMalton 1d ago
I think it might have hit 200M if it was completely animated.
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u/nicolasb51942003 WB 1d ago
$57M was supposed to be its opening weekend a couple weeks ago lmao.
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u/Old-Score3295 1d ago
Jack Black and Emma Myers walkups.
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u/Hot-Marketer-27 Best of 2024 Winner 1d ago
Napoleon Dynamite walkups
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u/Responsible_Grass202 1d ago
Bro it takes place in rural Idaho. They better have a Napoleon cameo in the sequel
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u/Robberryan 1d ago
There are actually a few Napoleon Dynamite references in the beginning.
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u/BuckteethBandit1 1d ago
Oh my God, it's unstoppable. 250 million+ opening weekend worldwide is locked
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u/blownaway4 1d ago edited 1d ago
250m WW is a lowball imo at this point especially with 18m made in Thursday previews alone internationally.
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u/XenonBug 1d ago
No, will most likely make $300m+ for its WW weekend, will maybe even flirt with $325m
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u/SatireStation 1d ago
Might even wink at $350m
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u/Area51_Spurs 1d ago
Might gape at $355
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u/Resident-Mixture-237 1d ago
Might show feet for $360 million
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u/nightfan r/Boxoffice Veteran 1d ago
Well, seeing how absolutely hyped my midtown NYC crowd was at 430pm, I'm not surprised. This movie is really connected with the young uns.
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u/jam11249 1d ago
This movie is really connected with the young uns.
I think this is what so many people seem to be forgetting when they're cringing over Jack Black in it - if you're on reddit, you're probably not in their target audience.
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u/splooge-clues 1d ago
$400m domestic seems closed to locked if that sticks. Could $500m domestic happen? Would need like a 3.3X multiplier, but I don’t know if the word of mouth is THAT good.
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u/Old-Score3295 1d ago
The next family movie coming up will be Lilo & Stitch next month. I would say 460 million domestic for Minecraft
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u/TBOY5873 New Line 1d ago edited 1d ago
The next day…
“Fortnite movie bidding war erupts with 9 bidders, interested parties include Netflix, Disney and Amazon”
Never underestimate the walk-ups for family films including this, Ne Zha 2 and Inside Out 2, if it’s based on a beloved property as big as this then the people will come
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u/Successful_Leopard45 A24 1d ago
Disney has stake in Epic Games it’s probably them doing it.
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u/Playful-Push8305 :affirm: Affirm 1d ago
Oh my G-d, some day we're going to see a Marvel-Star Wars-Pixar-Disney-Family Guy crossover Fortnite movie some day, aren't we?
It feels like the natural culmination of recent trends.
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u/TBOY5873 New Line 1d ago
Technically Sony also has a stake in Epic so unsure of what would happen
IMO the best option for Epic would be them deciding to self finance it and give domestic distribution rights to Warner Bros. and international to Disney or vice versa in return for them using their characters. You would have DC, Marvel, Looney Tunes, Mickey Mouse, Star Wars, Harry Potter all in one movie. Instant $2B and Epic would get >$500M in profits only having to pay 8% as distribution fees to Warner Bros/Disney.
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u/thetiredjuan 1d ago
Everyone wanted to see Jennifer Coolidge date a villager.
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u/blownaway4 1d ago
People keep talking about Mamoa and Black which obviously played the biggest role in terms of casting, but Coolidge's cameo should not be understated, she is huge rn.
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u/xenago Lightstorm 1d ago
She also had some of the best moments in the movie despite her very short screen time. The lines about her car got crazy reactions in particular
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u/Sea-Drop2811 1d ago
I’m not gonna be surprised if they do make a Fortnite movie in the near future. Video game movies at this point are the new comic book movies
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u/magistrate-of-truth 1d ago
At this point jack black is a major movie star or he sold his soul to the devil
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u/ozmega 1d ago
he sold his soul to the devil
why do you think kyle isnt in those movies? he is busy gargling mayonaise
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u/OmmarMatty 1d ago
I won't be surprised if this gets close to a billion, if not pass it altogether. What a massive win for WB.
The 2020s is really becoming the age of video game-based movies outperforming at the box office, much like the 2010s were for the superhero movies and the 2000s were for book adaptations.
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u/kingofstormandfire Universal 1d ago
I think the next decade will be the age of video-game movies. This decade feels like the 2000s for superhero films where there were hits and misses major studios were still figuring things out and seeing what sticks and how to make these things viable.
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u/abellapa 1d ago
Agreed
The 2020s cant be the age of videogame movies when only Mario Broke a Billion and The rest of the movies stop short of 500m and we already in the Middle of The decade
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u/vegasromantics WB 1d ago
I work at an AMC and I’m telling ya’ll…this had one of the biggest crowds for a movie I have ever seen. The line went out the door and even then, the line continued down the entire left side of the building. We didn’t even have that problem for Deadpool & Wolverine, which was one of our busiest films of last year.
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u/Mobile_Ad3339 1d ago
Everyone I know keeps making Flint and Steel jokes. It truly is Barbie for formerly chronically online boys.
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u/Superzone13 1d ago
It’s been a while since I’ve seen a movie absolutely obliterate projections like this. Every headline from the last couple of weeks suddenly looks hilarious.
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u/Kyro_Official_ Legendary 1d ago
It just keeps going up
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u/ptabs226 1d ago
I just got back from it. I was shocked how into the movie the crowd was. I think this will have very good word of mouth - then fall off a cliff once the crowd reaction bit gets old.
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u/Blaine1111 1d ago
This is a meme movie like morbius for young adults I think but unlike morbius we have an actual connection to the IP
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u/SalvaPot 1d ago
This is closer to what happened with the Minions movie. Recognizable IP that young people love and young adults can meme about.
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u/ptabs226 1d ago
And the direction, Jack Black and Jason Mamoa are silly enough that the movie is legitimately funny. Not $1BB funny - but the memes might push it to a billion.
I pitty the studio that tries to duplicate this formula. This movie is a unicorn. It rides the razors edge of being a disaster, but somehow pulls it off.
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u/kfadffal 1d ago
Jennifer Coolidge as well. Her subplot is pretty disconnected from the main plot but I got a lot of laughs out of it.
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u/popoindatass 1d ago
insane that this’ll probably be warner bros highest grossing movie of the year, I thought 150 was going to be the domestic total😭🤦🏿♂️
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u/snospiseht 1d ago
I said in an earlier thread that I felt like video game movies are becoming the new comic book movies. The movies your nephews and nerdy coworkers get excited for, the movies general audiences are eager to check out. A lot of people disagreed.
I just saw this movie, and now I can say the two craziest theater experiences of my life were Minecraft and the Five Nights at Freddy’s movie.
Video games movies aren’t becoming the new comic book movies, they are the new comic book movies.
I don’t think kids are gonna give a fuck when the 2000’s X-Men come out of portals or whatever in Avengers Doomsday, but they went absolutely apeshit for 90% of the runtime of this movie.
Batman and Spider Man are safe, I really hope people like the new Superman and Fantastic Four movies, but I think we’re witnessing the start of a new era. God help us all
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u/cockblockedbydestiny 1d ago
It remains to be seen where video game movies compare to CBMs in terms of being able to get people out to see B-tier titles, though. We're still in the honeymoon period of all-time sellers just now getting their debuts (Sonic excluded, of course)
I don't reasonably see a day when this sub is going to be arguing "Earthworm & Jim could easily do $700M WW if WOM is good"
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u/VakarianJ 1d ago
I don’t think they’ll reach that level just because there won’t be a MCU to connect the smaller characters to the big ones.
But there’s a lot more popular video game series than there is popular superheroes (pre-movies).
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u/kingofstormandfire Universal 1d ago
I think people are getting tired of shared universes to be honest since there's always too much homework to do to watch a film. I could see a return to more standalone franchises becoming a big thing.
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u/blownaway4 1d ago
Remember it took time before comic book films reached a point where C list properties were killing it.
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u/DatboiX 1d ago
Video game adaptations are definitely having a renaissance, what with this, Mario, The Last of Us, Fallout and Sonic all proving popular and bringing in tons of new audiences. I don’t think we can officially say they’re the new king just yet, but they’re definitely coming for the crown.
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u/RepeatEconomy2618 1d ago
Superhero movies had their run, but video game movies and other franchises are going to be the top dog, Movies like Barbie, Mario, Godzilla x Kong, Dune, Wicked, the list goes on, people are fans of other things too and they want to see something new that isn't superhero related
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u/Successful_Leopard45 A24 1d ago
This should hopefully get WB to reconsider Pokemon and make a traditional full fledged Pokemon film.
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u/Responsible_Grass202 1d ago
This is the funniest trend ever lmao. Movie critics and the press repeatedly downplay and mock video game movies just for them to explode over their OW
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u/RepeatEconomy2618 1d ago
Video Game Movies are one of the things keeping the theaters and box office alive rn
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u/TheGod4You Paramount 1d ago
Holy. There's two factors to this: the Jack Black quotes and obviously Minecraft as a whole.
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u/DrCalFun 1d ago
Unaffected by the market crash. Americans are so strong financially!
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u/TheCoolKat1995 Universal 1d ago edited 1d ago
Expecting $150M or so weekend.
After how slow things have been for the last three months, it's really great to see something exciting happen at the box office again. Movie theaters have also really needed a win like this.
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u/Gh0st412 1d ago
I actually found this movie to be a lot of fun to watch, especially stupid details like the automatic chicken farm and the homage to Technoblade. It also had enough adult humor to make it entertaining for us older veterans of the game laugh. Overall, I was shocked by how much I enjoyed this movie. I’d give it a solid 7.8/10
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u/Brilliant-Whole-1852 1d ago
called it for 7 months this'd be a hit no matter how much people complained about the trailer
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u/MattBrey 1d ago
In the age of social media, once a movie hits this virality the sky is the limit. A lot of people I know went to see it because everyone was going too, similar to the barbie effect. I saw a couple TikTok videos of people going dressed up, and that's also a good sign because it turns into a trend like the minions one
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u/Legofan2001 1d ago
Again obviously not the same demo but with this+Mario I don’t see how a GTA movie is anything but a lock to be a billion dollar movie WW.
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u/AgentOfSPYRAL WB 1d ago
I don’t know how you do a GTA movie.
Mario and Minecraft and Sonic are all super unique and totally videogamey.
GTA from a story perspective is basically just classic crime movies: the game.
I guess if they really play up the car chase/ 5 star rampage angle?
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u/blownaway4 1d ago
GTA is about the absurdity.
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u/AgentOfSPYRAL WB 1d ago
True, I just don’t think it should be any kind of serious character driven crime story and just lean into the chaos factor/free roam escalation, and have the world feature all the over the top parody stuff GTA is known for.
For some of these games it is really fun playing Goodfellas/Scarface/Heat: The Game, but the movie needs to avoid that.
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u/AsleepYesterday05 1d ago
GTA is definitely the pick for the biggest results. But, selfishly, I really want a Red Dead Redemption one
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u/Successful_Leopard45 A24 1d ago
RDR would honestly be better as a HBO show
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u/AsleepYesterday05 1d ago
You are reading my mind 100%, I said I would like a movie, but I would much prefer a show and specifically on HBO
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u/Andy_Liberty_1911 Universal 1d ago
GTA Movie won't work, they are all based on Goodfellas, Godfather and Scarface. At most you could continue the serious story but outside of Trevor and Niko, I don't see who else has the pull to even do that story.
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u/BreezyBill 1d ago
Tomorrow is going to be absolutely ridiculous. Today’s Minecraft haul was mostly for shows after 3:30 pm. It gets the entire day tomorrow to bring in the big bucks.
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u/ThePulpReader 1d ago
My wife (teacher) said that MANY of her students already got tickets and were talking about it.
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u/Digndagn 1d ago
Just saw it with my two kids. 12 yo son gave it a 10/10, 8 yo daughter liked it too
I think that a 5 mg edible is not quite enough of an edible to sit through this
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u/Vadermaulkylo DC 1d ago
Not a shock in the slightest. This IP is the biggest among young people.
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u/luiscaceresd 1d ago
I’m so happy because a lot of people got exposed to Superman
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u/blownaway4 1d ago
People were thinking Supes was gonna help this, it might be the opposite in actuality.
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u/WySLatestWit 1d ago
putting a sneak peak for Superman on the front of this movie might be the smartest decision WBD has made in years.
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u/AsleepYesterday05 1d ago
Is it the thing they put on youtube or something else that they are showing?
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u/WySLatestWit 1d ago
The thing that's on youtube. It's playing in front of screenings of Minecraft.
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u/snospiseht 1d ago
I couldn’t tell if the kids in my audience were applauding for Superman or if they were just excited that the movie was about to start.
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u/Daydream_machine 1d ago
Absolute insanity, kudos to this movie for single-handedly saving the 2025 box office!
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u/bookon 22h ago
But Reddit told me it was the worst film ever made and would bomb.
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u/dancy911 DC 1d ago
Leave it to WB to always have to most out of nowhere hits ever lol.
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u/Low-Construction1755 1d ago
Out of nowhere? Minecraft is one of the biggest IPs ever.
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u/Never-Give-Up100 Universal 1d ago
It's like Barbie, people keep underestimating How popular something is just because they personally have no interest in it
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u/dancy911 DC 1d ago
When it came on tracking my prediction for Minecraft was 500M WW. With quite a bit of luck, it could double that now. That's how far I was off...
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u/blownaway4 1d ago
This is one of the most under forecasted films in history so the industry clearly didn't see it coming.
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u/PassionInteresting76 1d ago
The trailers were ok but the marketing and collabs for this film were amazing when Warner brothers puts effort in marketing there films success just like Barbie did.
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u/BigAlReviews 1d ago
All.those downvotes when the trailer launched means Internet people votes mean eff all
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u/MaDanklolz 23h ago
In this thread- people realise that people go to movies to be entertained and engaged; therefore entertaining and engaging movies do well
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u/singleguy79 1d ago
How? Every trailer I saw for this made it look like shit.
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u/AsleepYesterday05 1d ago
One reason, and not a small one at all, is that it is one of the most popular game of all time
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u/Shack691 1d ago
But the point is you saw the trailers, even though you’re likely far from the target audience. It went viral and became a meme and unlike a lot of other meme movies it’s perfectly ok as a film, such that the popularity will propel it to success.
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u/LawrenceBrolivier 1d ago
We keep paying attention to industry long-range tracking for what now?
why again?
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u/blownaway4 1d ago
Nothing matters outside of BOT trackers. Variety and Deadline tracking has become close to useless.
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u/TedStixon 1d ago
Doesn't surprise me at all.
I work at a theater and it was a madhouse today. Even during the day shows with school in session, we had parents bringing in kids (lots of "My son/daughter loves this so I let him/her play hooky to see it!"), plus tons of teens and adults. Hilariously, no other movie had more than 10 tickets sold my entire shift. It was ALL Minecraft. And we sold way more of the $50 plushy combos than I'd have thought.
Last I checked, there were nearly 1,000 tickets sold for today alone (which is a lot for a single movie for our small-town location), and they were getting ready to add more evening shows (potentially as late as midnight) because the last show was closing in on selling out. So the poor closers are probably going to have to stay late.