r/boxoffice • u/IntoTheNigberverse • Jun 19 '22
Domestic Top Gun: Maverick is exploding of Father's day Sunday. Bound to have a huge increase over Sat. Could be #1, higher than JWD and Lightyear. Won't be shocked by 20M+ (28%+ over Sat) and a weekend haul of 46.7M+ (-9% from last week)
https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/30453-weekend-thread-lightyear-207-fri-jwd-1574-tgm-1096/?do=findComment&comment=4354634282
u/cmb2690 Jun 19 '22 edited Jun 19 '22
This is incredible. This movie really came out at the perfect time! It had Memorial Day, Father’s Day, and next is Independence Day. I think it will likely pass $650m. Amazing performance. I’m legit shocked.
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u/Ifuckinghateaura Jun 19 '22
I wonder if in future years more studios will use this as the best release time for their movies
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Jun 19 '22
Well top gun is the absolute perfect movie to watch for these occasions 90% movies won't be for one of these let alone all 3
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u/dehehn Jun 19 '22
Maybe Hollywood will try and find patriotic action movies tailored to dad for this stretch.
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u/College_Prestige Jun 20 '22
The only reason why this works for Top Gun is because it's good enough to have the legs to sustain through those holidays
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u/tmobilekid Jun 19 '22
Atleast it’s not doctor strange 2 weirdly contorting the plot to take advantage of Mothers Day.
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u/TheSilv Jun 20 '22
Ikr, they released a film where the mother goes crazy on Mother’s Day, perfect!
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Jun 19 '22
TGM has great WOM to help it too. You gotta release a world class movie also, like they did.
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u/Overlord1317 Jun 19 '22
I hope they use it as a template for what kinds of films to make more of.
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u/OldManHipsAt30 Jun 19 '22
Haven’t studios always saved their massive blockbusters for an early summer release?
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u/thesmash Jun 19 '22
Paramount firing the ceo that greenlit all these hits for the guy in charge of Nickelodeon is quite the choice.
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u/FartingBob Jun 19 '22
This is the most fascinating run since Avatar, these drops for something this big are almost unheard of in the last 30 years.
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Jun 19 '22
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u/Overlord1317 Jun 19 '22
It felt like a world in harmony, until the Fire Nation attacked.
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u/synthsaregreat1234 Jun 19 '22
Just saw this last night it rocks, makes me happy to see that the old school blockbuster isn’t dead
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u/saifou Jun 19 '22
There’s something about the movie that reminds of the old era movies but can’t put my finger on it or how to explain it.
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Jun 19 '22
I’m not trying to sound snobbish, but I really do think craft has gone out the window these days and Maverick is just chock full of it. Beautifully shot, precisely edited, the story is clear and defined with a strong emotional hook at the center of it.
There were certainly bad movies made back in the day, and I am a BIG defender of digital tools (of which Maverick makes extensive use), but not anybody could pick up a camera back then and you had to plan shit out and have a vision. Studios hire bland indie directors these days who have no sense for color, composition, staging a set piece, camera direction, rhythm of cutting, etc. Top Gun Maverick is a reminder of what it’s like when a filmmaking team knows and cares about this shit, and that’s a total rarity in franchise filmmaking right now.
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u/k4j98 Jun 19 '22
Tom Cruise seems to inspire this sort of behavior from movies in which he's cast. Not to say he's the reason for all his movies' successes, but there is definitely a correlation.
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Jun 19 '22
Oh totally. Look at all the directors he’s worked with, he clearly has good taste. Coppola, Scorsese, Spielberg, Paul Thomas Anderson… for awhile Robert Town was his guy for doing a pass on the script. He appreciates cinema.
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u/durdesh007 Jun 20 '22
Not just the directors, all his coworkers too. Every people who have worked with Tom always mentions how energetic and professional he is. His presence brings life to shooting
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u/OldManHipsAt30 Jun 19 '22
Too many movies nowadays just phone in a generic script that’s ripped off from a classic, checking some general diversity boxes, and then ultimately trying to wow audiences with the cinematography, visual effects, and soundtrack. It’s boring to be honest.
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Jun 19 '22
trying to wow audiences with the cinematography, visual effects
I wish! Modern cinematography styles are shit, and visual effects are so muddy because they rarely have vision to them. Definitely agree they’re boring though!
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u/durdesh007 Jun 20 '22
cinematography, visual effects, and soundtrack.
Those aren't good either. Movie CGI peaked like 7-8 years ago. Recent Marvel movies look worse now than they did in 2008.
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Jun 20 '22
It’s not the CGI that peaked, it’s Marvel’s quality control. So many movies and shows a year is just not feasible if you want them to be good. People always make fun of Cameron for taking so long on movies but he wants to get it right! You have to put that work in!
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u/helpfuldude42 Jun 19 '22
This is the answer. Care and attention to detail was taken at every level - writing, acting, camera work, editing, sound FX, sound track, set detail, superfan callbacks that were not obnoxious, etc.
Reminded me sort of like a Tarantino movie in terms of technical excellence, not sure anything in modern times can really come this close. Especially since it's a legitimate Blockbuster with wide appeal.
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u/lot183 Jun 19 '22
Beautifully shot, precisely edited, the story is clear and defined with a strong emotional hook at the center of it.
What's funny is that I wouldn't say all that about the original film. Mind you I think the first one is a lot of fun and I only first watched it as an adult recently, if I had seen it as a kid I'd have probably loved it and had nostalgia, but I think the first has some flaws and this new one has none of those flaws
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Jun 19 '22
Which is what makes it such a good legasequel! It’s a subtle remake of the first that pays beautiful homage while also topping it in every aspect.
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Jun 19 '22 edited Jan 04 '23
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Jun 19 '22
Of course, but my point is that there are almost none at this level. Once upon a time the blockbuster films sought out directors with distinct vision and now they do just the opposite. Well made blockbusters are not totally extinct but I don’t think they’re the norm. We definitely have had a solid year thus far, so I’m hoping the trend continues!
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u/cactusmaac Jun 19 '22
It focuses on believable characters with relatable stories and dilemmas and the action is there to serve their development,. Plus it doesn't descend into 20 minutes of tedious, pointless CGI slugfest for its final act.
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u/leafywanderer Jun 19 '22
Not having any political message was part of it, I think. I miss that about older movies.
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u/mrsunsfan Jun 19 '22
Its a 80s movie set in the modern day
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u/durdesh007 Jun 20 '22
Ironically why it feels so fresh. Blockbuster movies got their life sucked out some time in the last decade
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u/wien-tang-clan Jun 20 '22
It reminds me of that scene in the first avengers when Coulson is talking to Captain America about his uniform.. in that things got really weird the last few years and I appreciated the old fashioned… 80s movie.
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u/denizenKRIM Jun 19 '22
It's a fantastic throwback, but it also feels like it's almost a swan song to this type of film making.
Even producer Bruckheimer noted you'll never see a film made like this again.
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u/mistarteechur Jun 19 '22
A cursory, completely unscientific look at my area theater’s available seats today for all three films:
Lightyear is about 1/3 sold but that drops off completely after the early afternoon showings.
JWD is about what you’d expect for a second weekend event picture. Prime time showings are mostly full with plenty of good seats for matinees.
Top Gun is nearly sold completely out with the exception of the 10 pm and later shows.
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u/mrsunsfan Jun 19 '22
Yeah I looked at some of the Harkins seats and a lot of seats are already sold
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u/Scarns_Aisle5 WB Jun 19 '22
Wish the mission impossible series enjoyed this level of success too. But I guess this is years of insane stunts finally paying off.
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u/ArsBrevis Jun 19 '22
Fallout was a masterpiece. If I were a major studio, I'd throw all the money at Christopher McQuarrie. I hope TGM's success rubs off on the latest MI installment.
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u/SuperMuCow Jun 19 '22 edited Jun 19 '22
WB have to be kicking themselves for not taking McQuarrie up on his Superman/Green Lantern pitch right?
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u/TheJoshider10 DC Jun 19 '22
Surely. McQuarrie's direction with Cavill's increased stardom after Fallout/Witcher and the pent up demand for a Superman sequel would have potential for a billion.
Cannot believe they were so against his pitch that he refuses to entertain the notion of going back again.
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u/ImaginationNervous Jun 19 '22
I have a feeling Zaslav is phoning McQuarrie as we speak. After finding and beating the shit out of Ezra Miller, hopefully.
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u/synthsaregreat1234 Jun 19 '22
It was great but I still think ghost protocol was the best one! Maybe I’m just biased but that burj Khalifa stunt was just so cool. Can’t wait for dead reckoning either way!!
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u/JediJones77 Amblin Jun 19 '22
Rogue Nation was my favorite one by far. Amazing script, unbelievable cast with the additions of Ferguson and whoever played the villain. Best villain in the series.
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u/mmaqp66 Jun 19 '22
Rebecca Ferguson was a pleasant surprise, the only companion that Tom Cruise could not overshadow but because of her talent and was on par with him, that movie was her definitive launch as one of the most capable actresses in these times.
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u/Bowler_300 Jun 20 '22
I love Vanessa Kirby. I hope she just keeps showing up as a British baddie anywhere.
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u/nale21x Jun 19 '22
I hope when Tom Cruise retires from the series they continue with Rebecca Ferguson and some others
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u/epokhrel Jun 19 '22
tom cruise clearly isn’t meant to die so there might be a wait
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u/sea_guy Jun 19 '22
Ferguson was pregnant during the filming of Fallout and the movie suffers from her diminished presence. I love love love Rogue Nation.
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u/matthero Jun 19 '22
Sean Harris is the only MI villain I like more than Philip Seymour Hoffman. He's a fantastic actor in general but the way he holds his own against Ethan Hunt and the IMF is amazing. He really challenges them in RN and Fallout
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u/Edgaras1103 Jun 19 '22
My biggest gripe with ghost protocol was the overall tone. It sometimes felt a bit cartoony. The stunts were great tho. Still it's probably my second least favorite MI.
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u/1731799517 Jun 19 '22
I saw this movie only a couple years ago and knew that TC climbed the skyscraper from news clips, but still it blew me away.
CAnnot imagine how crazy that must have been on the big screen.
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u/synthsaregreat1234 Jun 19 '22
It was really amazing in theatres. One of my top experiences along with Blade Runner 2049 and this new Top Gun!
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u/medspace Jun 19 '22
Honestly any of the last 3 are all insanely good, any of them could be number one.
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u/willw Jun 19 '22
In case anyone's curious McQuarrie was script doctor on Ghost Protocol too, and directed a bunch of reshoots.
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u/lot183 Jun 19 '22
Fallout was a masterpiece. If I were a major studio, I'd throw all the money at Christopher McQuarrie.
They did. Just the first part of the new Mission Impossible movie has a $290 million budget. We don't even know the second parts budget
They let them blow up a real bridge for the movie
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u/russwriter67 Jun 19 '22
I think Dead Reckoning will definitely benefit from this movie’s success. Tom Cruise is a very bankable star in the right role.
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u/rebels2022 Jun 19 '22
I think the next two Mission Impossibles are gonna ride the Top Gun Maverick wave. Wouldn’t surprise me for those movies to get a late franchise box office explosion in the same way Fast and Furious did.
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u/ryanreigns Jun 19 '22
Dead Reckoning will kill it at the box office if it’s on the same level as the last 3 MI movies. I know a lot of people who have been revisiting the series recently due to Cruise being in Top Gun
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u/kitsua Jun 19 '22
I like the Mission Impossible films but they do just fine. I wish films like Everything Everywhere All At Once had even a fraction of the marketing and exposure this film had so more people could see it and it got the success it deserved.
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u/RailwayMenace Jun 19 '22
Top Gun Maverick was an incredibly fun movie. Glad to see it's so successful. Great movies should be rewarded.
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u/durdesh007 Jun 20 '22
It's a gift to all movie goers after 2 years of covid. It's been a long time since I have seen people actually happy coming out of the theatre after finishing a movie
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u/Evangelion217 Jun 19 '22
This is why Tom Cruise hates the idea of a 45 day theatrical window, because this movie has some serious legs.
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u/Docthrowaway2020 Jun 19 '22
He hated the 45 day window so much he up and killed it. Seriously, expect to see longer windows now in TG:M’s wake
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u/weekapaugrooove Jun 19 '22
The theater was PACKED Friday night and they had it going in two theaters!
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u/nicolasb51942003 WB Jun 19 '22
What. The. Fuck.
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u/trphilli Jun 19 '22
It's getting a big marketing push for Father's Day on-line, also heatwave around.
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u/OldManHipsAt30 Jun 19 '22
Also happens to be the best film released in theaters last couple of years
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Jun 19 '22
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u/durdesh007 Jun 20 '22
Feels refreshing doesn't it? I was starting to hate movies in last few years. Every single blockbuster is a superhero movie. And I considered myself a superhero movie fan a while ago
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u/NotTaken-username Jun 19 '22
Dare I say this is more impresive than NWH. People expected that to be a massive hit, although not on the level it was
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u/ArsBrevis Jun 19 '22
TGM is also, by far, the superior movie. It's great to see quality rewarded.
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u/Giesi85 Jun 19 '22
THIS!!!! Spider-Man looked so lazy in a lot of scenes with questionable story choices. TGM was the perfect blockbuster experience for me.
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u/bfhurricane Jun 20 '22
I’m glad NWH is getting some more critical looks. I really liked it it but felt it was in the middle of the MCU pack, while many others were claiming it was their best film.
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u/defiantcross Jun 19 '22
NWH was nice but objectively, it was memberberry after memberberry. TGM did not rely on that AT ALL. the only things from the original were crucial to the story.
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Jun 19 '22
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u/mrsunsfan Jun 19 '22
Because Top Gun is authentic and feels real
I love Doctor strange 2 but its all magic meets Evil Dead
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u/GetOutNormiesREE Jun 19 '22
It's actually impressive how many people thought that NWH was 10/10 or 9/10. Sure, it was fun seeing Garfield and Maguire return, but the story just wasn't THAT good. Plus it had that death scene which was supposed to be emotional but I doubt anyone actually cared for that character.
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u/CashmereLogan Jun 19 '22
I totally get why people had a fun time with it, but I was so surprised at the overwhelmingly positive response to the film itself. It’s really telling when even the people that LOVED the movie refer to Andrew Garfield as the emotional anchor of the movie (a statement I agree with). Holland’s arc was boring and not resolved well at all, being stolen by Tobey. The best part of Holland’s Spidey was where the character ended up, but that’s more “oh wow he’s in this position we’ve seen before and wanted got a while, yay!“ than the result of any meaningful arc.
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u/JimJimmyJimJimJimJim Amblin Jun 19 '22
There was more to it than the movie itself - audiences were sharing an experience for the first time post pandemic.
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u/Ifuckinghateaura Jun 19 '22
I think it's a shame the old Spideys never got to interact with their villains as much
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u/Pirate_Jack_ Jun 19 '22
NWH was a big hit purely because of nostalgia. Seeing Toby and Andrew as spiderman again had everyone remembering some cool moments from their past and it was the major reason why it was such a big hit. The story itself was very average. And honestly i felt it was a bit stupid if you think about it when you realise the entire story plot began due to a very immature and stupid mistake by Peter Parker, especially when you consider that Peter saw Iron man die in front of his eyes and so many others as well. You would expect Spiderman to be more mature after those experiences.
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u/formerfatboys MoviePass Ventures Jun 19 '22
Could we just get it back in IMAX?
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u/DFWRangers Jun 20 '22
This! I was waiting until crowds went down a bit and now IMAX and Cinemark XD are Jurassic park. I totally timed it wrong.
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u/mrsunsfan Jun 19 '22
I'm gonna laugh my ass off if this movie somehow beats Lightyear and JWD
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u/russwriter67 Jun 19 '22
It’s not gonna beat either of those movies this weekend unless Lightyear is being overestimated by Disney who tend to lowball their movies on Sunday mornings.
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u/gajendray5 Pixar Jun 19 '22
I had it at 50-60M opening weekend. This movie’s an unprecedented worldwide sensation.
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u/super_sam9694 Jun 19 '22
Good thing its performing so well this weekend, last week this sub was all doom and gloom saying 1 billion is dead. Now that it has survived the dinos even 1.1 would not be surprising.
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u/madthunder55 Jun 19 '22
Once it passed $740 I think a billion was a guarantee, some people were saying 1.5 billion which I think is unreasonable. The question is can it hit $600 domestically
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u/ThatNewTankSmell Jun 19 '22
Verdict is still out. Next weekend will tell us the story. At this point, the film is pulling in people who rarely see films, and you're getting repeat viewings. If it can sustain that kind of pull, then yeah, definitely you have a shot at $600m. If we get another crazy sub-30% drop next weekend, I'd guess we're probably at least 50-50 on $600m.
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u/olemiss18 Jun 19 '22
I’ve never seen or had any interest in Top Gun. I’ve been waiting 4 years to see the new Jurassic World movie. But shit, I think I’m gonna see Top Gun 2 first.
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u/vga25 Jun 19 '22
Please please go see Top Gun: Maverick. Easily might be my favorite movie of the year. But go see Jurassic World also if you just want to have a silly dumb good time at the theater.
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u/svarowskylegend Jun 19 '22
The cruise missile has made those dinos extinct and grounded Buzz's spaceship
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u/AnotherJasonOnReddit Best of 2024 Winner Jun 19 '22
If Tom Cruise fights dinosaurs in that upcoming space movie of his, it'll be the first $3B Movie in cinematic history!
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u/DSQ Jun 19 '22
My dad plans on seeing the film again and so do I. The word of mouth on this film I think is huge.
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u/Evangelion217 Jun 19 '22
That is incredible! I’m super impressed with “Top Gun Maverick’s” box office. Many of us didn’t think it would be a major hit, but it surpassed all expectations. With it’s surprise showing at cinemacon, that lead to a great reception among the audience and media. It’s rave reviews from it’s San Diego premiere and at the Cannes film festival. It’s build up and eventual run at the box office has been legendary. And I salut Tom Cruise for showing so much love and respect towards the movie going experience. He’s the last real movie star.
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u/FrickinNormie2 Jun 19 '22
This, Logan and Ford V Ferrari are the holy trilogy of “dad movies”
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u/orangeucool Jun 19 '22
Maverick is selling out matinees in my area. Insane hold. What really elevates this movie above blockbusters from the last decade is the focus on character and not plot. The story is simple and allows the characters/actors room to breathe. This is the kind of film with great rewatch value.
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u/Holequiz Jun 20 '22
I’ve seen it 3 times (different friends and family have wanted to see it) and you’re right, it wasn’t difficult rewatching. Even though I knew things were coming I was still amazed and even caught some details I missed on round 1.
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u/CJO9876 Universal Jun 19 '22
Action films always do well on Father’s Day Sunday with most holdover action films seeing a noticeable Sunday increase.
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u/majorc564 Jun 19 '22
I probably would have never watched this on my own, but my dad convinced to check it out. Super glad I did, easily one of the most enjoyable movies of the year for me, and a great bonding experience.
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u/SpencaDubyaKimballer Jun 19 '22
So if it hits 650m domestically what would you say its chances of remaining #1? Considering black panther and avatar are coming out at the end of the year. Both of their predecessors did 700m+ but both could be looking at substantial decreases
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u/ThatNewTankSmell Jun 19 '22
If it hits $650m it will be either #1 or #2. Black Panther 2 will not hit $650m, no chance. The only real competition - IF it hits that high - would be Avatar.
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u/superduperm1 Jun 19 '22
It’s going to jump JW and LY next weekend and its only obstacle for the rest of the summer will be Thor… holy shit.
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Jun 19 '22
My company offered free tickets for dads today and reports from the field is that they are SLAMMED. Oops..
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u/NuPhoenixX Jun 19 '22
After seeing JWD and ignoring Lightyear (which seems like a small disaster as I guessed), Top Gun deserves that top spot again. Here’s hoping it’s number one until Thor hits.
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u/MyNameIsRS Jun 19 '22
I saw JWD and Lightyear on back-to-back days. Lightyear is far superior to JWD (which is a large disaster, movie-wise).
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u/NuPhoenixX Jun 19 '22
JWD was so bad I started nodding off during the movie.
Compare those to Top Gun, which I have seen twice.
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u/MyNameIsRS Jun 19 '22
Absolutely. Maverick is way better than both.
Just saying, Lightyear is worth a watch. I don't think the marketing did it justice.
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u/michaelm1345 Marvel Studios Jun 19 '22
No fucking way this is insanity over and over. A $46M weekend would be 4M less then last weekend how is this even happening lol. Defying all odds every weekend
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u/JJoanOfArkJameson Paramount Jun 19 '22
A higher 3-day? JWD seems to be in the high 60s. Unless this is a 4-day estimation, which I'm assuming it's not.
Absolutely deranged this is going to be within spitting distance of Lightyear's OW.
Oh, Chapek.
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u/ArsBrevis Jun 19 '22
What's Chapek got to do with Lightyear's OW?
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u/JJoanOfArkJameson Paramount Jun 19 '22
It's on him that the brand has been diminished. Turning Red should've been released in theaters and could've done well, it's great. I understand Luca, if you didn't want to push it back June 2021 was a rough time to release something theatrically. The movies were all but back after NWH and it seems to fall on a bigwig at disney for not taking care of Pixar
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Jun 19 '22
Light year had one of lowest user ratings for Pixar movie
The movie simply doesn’t have good wom lol
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u/bala_means_bullet Jun 19 '22
Such a fantastic movie I watched it 3x. The action sequences were phenomenal. The individual characters didn't try to out do each other. Hangman was a total ass but that was his character. Like a hybrid of young ice/mav. Phoenix wasn't overly "look at me I'm the best woman naval aviator". She was cool and collected the whole movie. I hope word of mouth continues to push this movie through 4th of July!
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u/pearlz176 Sony Pictures Jun 19 '22
TGM's theatrical performance is probably better than Maverick's 2:15 run.
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u/CJO9876 Universal Jun 19 '22
Already, Maverick is at a 3.68 opening to total multiplier after just 24 days of release, with the opening weekend so far making up only 27.2% of its current domestic gross.
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u/PearlJamPony Jun 19 '22
I haven’t been able to find a seat for this on the weekends in my nearby theater yet since it released
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u/robotslendahand Jun 19 '22
We showed my 8yo and 12yo sons Top Gun a few weeks ago. They liked it. (God I forgot how 80s it was!). All seeing Maverick this afternoon. A lot of the shows just had the crappy up-front seats left. Finally found a show with 2 rows with 2 seats each on an aisle. We can still share our Twizzlers. Whew!
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u/aronnov Jun 19 '22 edited Jun 19 '22
On my way to go see it for my second time now. All other movies have tons of free seats while top gun is nearly sold out every showing.
Edit: my local theatre looking online
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u/EvilAbdy Jun 20 '22
I took my Dad to see it on Father’s Day and every showing was sold out. Had to get a later showing due to this (we weren’t expecting that to happen)
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u/abracadabra1998 BoxOfficeTheory Tracker Jun 19 '22
A single digit drop for the weekend would be fucking INSANE