This is a bit of a follow up from a post I made a few weeks ago. More and more respected people are saying this.

We are now seeing the stock market take a significant dive as a result of the chaos and uncertainty around Trump's tariffs and unnecessary trade war. I think this is the beginning, though we may have some green days in the weeks/months in the stock market before the bottom falls out.

When we, the American working class, start paying much more for imported products that will make a huge impact on what we can buy and we will have much less money to spend on luxury items.

Also we are still months, maybe a year away from the full effects of the 'DOGE' dismantling of government contracts and workforce. Small businesses are being much more impacted by these contract cuts than the industry giants, this will force layoffs.

The government workforce that are now unemployed will have a difficult time finding work, especially with companies that benefited from government contracts not hiring. These contracts and paychecks that are cut by 'DOGE' are no longer going to be part of the economy, government contracts and employment are in a sense a form of economic stimulus that is currently being dismantled.

Hang out folks, unfortunately I think the worst is yet to come!

Seen in downtown Miami today

Are any red flags not yet flying? Still seeing any green flags?

Question: If the United States government give 10 year tax breaks to manufacture company in the United States, would that be enough to manufacturing an item here in the United States and make it cost worthy where it could compare to buying that same item from China?

The birth rate declined 26% during the Great Depression. Despite being a bunch of whack job pro-natalists obsessed with the birth rate, tanking the economy is the opposite of what makes people feel secure about having kids.

In this economy, how many women now would go on maternity leave or exit the workforce entirely to have kids? Who wants to risk being unemployed with young children when they're cutting Medicaid and the USDA is stopping food delivery trucks from reaching food banks?

(Pre-Note: I understand that this just a few specific examples in a specific region in America. Also, I’m not saying this is going to be exactly like the 08 Recession or the 1923 Great Depression. I am just reporting what I saw and adding it to pile of empirical and anecdotal data/evidence that outlets and everyone here have been discussing. I am purposely not trying to make this post sensationalized. I am also putting the thesis/main point in the second paragraph of the post, and I made the title vague to prevent people from just repeating a title as news to others without knowing the full story. It is a long story bc I want to be accurate of exactly what happened, what I was told, and what I overheard. So I am going to put a summary at the bottom to see the main points but would obviously read the full thing before reporting to others in your life it as if it’s actual news.)

Yesterday (Friday April 4th) I was looking at vehicles and planning on purchasing a used work truck. I was going to pay for it fully in cash since it was “only” $6000. I went to my local bank/credit union to withdraw the money. I like flipping (buy,fix, sell) things, so I have done this many times with different kinds of tools, vehicles, boats, etc. and have withdrawn larger amounts of money many times before. I never really had an issue doing this before until yesterday.

I went to the counter to ask to withdraw $6000 and was told they weren’t doing money withdrawals over $1000 for the day due to the fact that they were almost out of money on hand and that they hoped to received more money tomorrow. They said that it has been an absolute hectic day today and that they were already almost out of money. They told me to go to a neighboring city branch since they were bigger, had more money on hand, and might have luck there (Even though this was a decently sized location and officially the branch location for this large city. Strange, but okay. When I was outside the line to the ATM was near the parking lot. There were maybe 3-5 people when I got there, but didn’t think anything of it until I left.

I drive to the next town over with the branch that usually has more money in hand. I walk up to the counter and told the receptionist that I was wanting to take out $6000 and asked if there was a maximum on withdrawals from accounts. She said no and that I could technically take out as much as I wanted, (I think maybe she thought that I meant as a general bank policy.) I say great and ask to withdraw $6000. While she is running my card, accessing my account, copying my drivers license, etc. she tells me how hectic the day has been and how it’s been nonstop since open (kinda weird for mid day Friday and to this degree, but not too too crazy.) It looked like as soon as she started to move on to the actual withdrawal/getting the money portion of the transaction her eyes seemed to flash open for a half second and she seemed a lot more focused and quiet. She kinda nervously “sang” under her breath a question to the banker a window or two down from her. (By sang I mean she said this but in a soft musically type of way you would to a scared/crying baby) She asked, ‘Hey Liiiiisaaaa……are we supposed to have a limit on caaash withdrawals?….because we are getting very low on money and think they already dropped off earlier today.’ The other banker asked what the computer showed they had left in $100s and my banker replied “480.” There was a pause and in a kinda “that’s above my pay grade” type of feel, she said something like ‘Well they haven’t said anything to me or anyone yet, so as of now just give him his money.’ She then apologized and told me that they have been slammed all day and that there has been a huge amount of people taking out large cash withdrawals today. She said that she figured the other branches would be out of money soon and would be sending their customers to their branch. I confirmed to her that she was correct in my case. She said she wasn’t sure if they would have enough money to get them to Monday which is when their next delivery is, but they hoped/thought they might maybe make it. She also made it sound like it wasn’t just the branch that I came from was out of money and were sending their customers to her branch, but that there were a handful of branches in the same/similar situation.

I left feeling very uneasy about the situation and as soon as I left I saw the ATM line was many people deep and almost into the parking lot just like it was at the first branch I went to.

————————————————————————

TLDR -

I went to the bank yesterday (Friday April 4th) to withdraw $6000. The first bank said it’s been a very busy day and that they didn’t have enough money on hand to do more than $1000 withdrawals. They told me to go to a different branch (Branch B) in a different town bc they usually have more money on hand. I get there and tell the banker I want to withdraw $6000 and ask if there is a limit. She seems surprised by the question but says no and that I can withdraw as much as I would like. After doing the abeginning leg work she begins to start the actual withdrawal portion of the transaction. She looks at her computer and quietly yet concerningly asked her coworker if there is a limit on cash withdrawals and no one told her. Coworker semi surprised asks how many more $100’s does the computer show that they have left and my bank teller answers “480.” They both seem concerned but give me the money because they haven’t been told not to yet. They begin to tell me that their day has been very busy and that there has been so many people coming in to make ‘large cash withdrawals’ from their accounts. They then say that the nearby branches probably don’t have enough money and it’s causing them to run low on money on hand too.

Economic collapse is not inevitable, if only we take lessons from an improved macroeconomic lens such as MMT.

This is a digestible infographic laying out many core ideas for those new to it, those who have heard of it before and are curious, or those who were previously misinformed about it and need a pallete cleanser to clarify the fundamentals.

and what are the expectations for the dollar prices compared to poor countries, are they at risk of decreasing (exchange rate of dollar), and if so around when

I have had a rather nightmarish, doomsday scenario in my head ever since trump started to run. It amplified over his tariffs, and I'm really worried we are seeing the beginning of this "sum of all fears" scenario.

Basically, it's one exacerbated by trump. I feel we've already been on precarious ground, but he may be pushing us off the cliff.

I know the likes of Peter Schiff /Jim Rogers have been "warning" of this for the past 15 years, although I hadn't put much credence into them because of the global acceptance of dollars, the fact many countries also have high deficits, and because of the momentum of the overall us economy. But with the right setup on the table, the chain reaction could begin. It's just I didn't feel we had the right (or wrong) setup until now.

The scenario basically is trump, his policies, tariffs, cause the us to decouple from the world order the us was a beacon of for decades. The next part is trump crashing markets, destroying the privilege of the us dollar's strength at the same time, the dollar losing the reserve currency status, and inflation spiking with nothing the Fed can do-a real dollar crisis. The likes of which we've never seen in the US-it can't happen here, it's reserved for other countries. Perhaps the most significant one in recent memory was how the petrobras scandal in Brazil further eroded confidence in the economy, causing the Brazil real to devalue from 2 reais per dollar to 4 in 2014-15. But do note that it wasn't the scandal itself as much, rather, the currency started dropping preciptiously when the enormity of the scandal was unveiled to the world. Had it never been unveiled , I doubt investors would've fled Brazil as much and/or as rapidly as they did.

Trump has threatened countries that de dollarize - but this could actually lead to a stressand effect, combined with everything else, I believe. So his threats may actually exacerbate the fury of exactly what he's trying to "prevent." he has also been public about de valuing the dollar. But again, what I'm talking about is much more severe and catastrophic. Like 40-80 percent loss in the us dollar index $dxy.

While the usa's world and allies decide they've had ENOUGH of Trump. American soft power goes poof in quite a short period of time. So the unraveling of America's liquidity also comes into play here. Again, I feel we may be in the first innings of this.

The end result is per capita gdp ppp in the US dropping maybe 30--70 percent, while the markets crash 40-80 percent, inflation rises, and savings (including investment assets) equally dries up-all exacerbated by trumps global isolation and tariffs. The fed cannot do anything to stop this. They're out of ammo...great depression 2.0 scenario.

Appears Subaru is pausing sales on new cars in thd US until they have a better idea what's going on with tariffs.

I have been shown this chart twice on FB. These people will never learn.

How bad does it need to get before they reverse their tariff decisions. People keep saying that it will get better just like how the last time this happened the Republicans lost for 60 years, but people still gotta live through these 4 years until then. I was hoping they would reverse their stance once they saw how the markets are and the backlash maybe as soon as May, but I don't know anymore.

Also, I have been reading news from this article that I want to share.

→ Are there historical precedents for similar tariffs, and what were the outcomes in those cases?

Gulotty: Tariffs have been part of U.S. trade policy since the founding, but in the period that tariffs were high, they were consistent and targeted. There is little historical precedent for this sort of rapid experimentation in tariff-setting, where tariffs are declared one day and dropped the next, or applied to all products from a country.

One analogy would be the 1807 Embargo Act—a ban on all trade intended to punish Britain and France. It had the effect of sharply reducing American imports and exports, allowed British trade expansion in South America and escalated political tensions, culminating in the War of 1812.

I remember people during COVID were saying at the time, we have nothing to worry and that this pandemic we are smarter and will do things better and no economic collapse will happen. Fast forward a few years and now we are eerily following what happened back in early 20th century.

The pandemic back then was also followed by high inflation, economic boom, over-levereged positions in the market, pumped up stocks etc. What followed was as a market crash, USA starting to impose tariffs and even a bigger market crash that led to the economic collapse. Fascism/nationalism was also widely spreading back then through Europe as it is now starting to gain voice once again. What followed were dark times and it really makes me question why did I decide to look into this on a Saturday morning 😅.

My question is, what makes current times different? What are we doing better and are we actually doing better, as back then the average person was younger, richer(lower taxes according to some economists) and lower debt levels? Are we walking head first towards even a worse collapse or is it just too similar, but it won't lead to nothing?

Summary: Wealthy boomers and wage earners, regardless of political affiliation are beginning to express panic amid a drop in the stock market. This reaction highlights the "Numbers Go Up" mindset, where stock market performance is seen as the sole indicator of societal health despite real-world issues like inflation and social decay. This article critiques this unhealthy obsession, noting how panic from a continued drop in the market will be exploited by the elites for their own purposes.

https://neofeudalreview.substack.com/p/the-numbers-go-up-hypothesis

Back-of-the-Napkin Economics (Yeah, cue the eye roll from your first-year calc prof 😅)

 Let’s break this down. 

Imagine a 25% tariff slapped across the board. Consumers don’t suddenly have 25% more money, so demand drops. Corporate sales? Down 25%. Earnings? Also down 25%.

 Now let’s bring in some context. 

Ignore post-2008 P/E ratios (thanks, money printing). From 1971 to 2007, the average S&P 500 P/E ratio was ~19.4. Today? It’s sitting at ~25. 

Now apply that 25% earnings drop and a reversion to historical valuation norms, and boom — you get a potential 42% drop in the S&P from current levels. That’s just basic math. Regression to the mean. 

But here's where it gets spicy: the intangibles. 

• Crumbling consumer confidence
•  Rising unemployment 
• Derivative exposure exceeding 2007 levels 
• Investment firms leveraged 100:1 
• Commercial real estate on life support 

So… are we cooked? Actually, we’re burnt to a crisp.

Remember 2008? The TARP bailout shifted private risk onto public debt. That playbook's being dusted off again — only this time, the scale’s bigger. The debt tied to risk assets is becoming unsustainable, and a massive financial reset seems inevitable. When it comes, expect another TARP — only this time, it’s gonna be a doozy. The game is the same: protect the top.

 Here’s the ugly truth:

Those living paycheck to paycheck can’t afford to play the long game. Those with a few bucks in the bank are going to see those reserves used up to survive and move into survival mode. People's future-focused decisions will be shelved just to get through the week. Meanwhile, the wealthy sit on reserves, wait for the crash, and scoop up assets at fire-sale prices. The majority get crushed under liabilities, unable to participate in the rebound.

 The pie gets smaller — but the slice for the top grows bigger.

 Thus, even if tariffs vanished tomorrow, the trust in global trade is broken. That damage is done. The U.S. economy will likely contract significantly — and stay smaller. But rest assured: those at the top will come out of it with more control, more wealth, and a bigger piece of what's left.

 Same playbook. Same outcome. Every time.

When the stock market goes down who suffers? What percent of the stock market is in the hands of the few with the wealth? A lot. Much of the market consists of wealthy people investing their wealth to make more and hire smart people to make more. The management of many public companies own their stock and use company money to buyback the stock pushing it higher so they can sell. Earnings are rigged. The CEOs are losing wealth. Corrupt CEOs are generating earnings by cutting costs, not good business.
Boeing, health insurance, retail, etc.
International investors may not have as much faith in the US market going forward.

Then there are those who are unaffected by the market crash because they have no vested interest, nothing to lose if it all comes down.

Maybe they want the the whole thing to come down. Maybe we need to find a way to listen.

I have ~$800 USD that I take with me on trips in case I ever need cash to evacuate. In fact, tour companies will recommend/require this for some countries (ex. When I visited Morocco and Egypt).

Wondering if my US cash is just losing (too much) value and I should swap them into GB Pounds as my back up for future trips

I am an American but I have citizenship in New Zealand as well. I’m trying to figure out how impactful the state of the US will be on myself and my family.

Do you think the current or future state of the US actually warrants leaving? This would likely be a forever move.

Leaving the US would cut my income in half, and increase the cost of living quite a bit, but also potentially the quality of life. I already have a form of free, universal healthcare and education through the US military, so that aspect is not a factor. I also have a decade in service towards a pension; 10 more years until I can collect ~$66.5k per year in pension, adjusted yearly for inflation, and free healthcare for life.

If I feel like reasonable heads will prevail and this storm can be weathered, I’d prefer to stay in the US, but I can’t predict the future.

Thoughts?