r/farming • u/MidwestAbe • 22h ago

Billions Lost in Value of Stored Soybeans

So i was curious after seeing the trillions of dollars lost in the value of the stock market over the past few weeks.

Farmers have lost $877,000,000 in the value of soybeans in storage on their farms since early February. Looked at the November contact.

Impressive work by the President.

1.1k Upvotes

96% Upvoted

107 comments sorted by

225

u/origionalgmf Grain 21h ago

I lost very little because I sold hard right after the election

60

u/MidwestAbe 21h ago

Well played. Now what?

72

u/_Br549_ 20h ago edited 20h ago

You wait for the inevitable weather scare come late spring early summer and you contract like usual. Hell might even be a good time now to start thinking about maybe buying some cheap calls

18

u/MANEWMA 20h ago

Where do most American soybeans get sold too?

38

u/_Br549_ 20h ago

As of recently, Germany, Mexico, Spain, turkey

21

u/origionalgmf Grain 19h ago

Mine all go to a biodiesel plant

28

u/ImNoAlbertFeinstein 20h ago

China is the biggest market, politics aside.

78

u/fleebleganger 17h ago

Except they now have a substantial tariff (34%) on US soybeans and is moving to fully decouple from buying American soybeans. 

Not only has Trump destroyed small American farmers, he’s signed the death warrant on the Amazon rainforest. 

33

u/UndertakerFred 15h ago

In his book, that’s a double victory

5

u/spaceneenja 2h ago

Rainforests are woke anyways

13

u/MidwestAbe 20h ago

Even after the Brazilian's harvest 170 MMT of beans and plant enough ground to raise 180MMT in 2025/26?

Hope it all works out.

16

u/_Br549_ 20h ago edited 20h ago

Prices have sucked for a long while (that's what we get for teaching our competition how to farm) which is going to lead to less acres and the potential for the US new crop balance sheet to get tight. We are projected to have a new crop carryout of less than 300 million. Carryout was 380 last year. We will plant far less acres and should have a much tighter US situation. Domestic demand is pretty Strongright now . The US is crushing more beans than it has before. Throw a weather scare on top of it all, we will get an opportunity to sell beans at a profitable price.

13

u/MidwestAbe 20h ago

Carryout is 380 right now. I'm not sure 80 million bushels disappear unless the weather really sucks. And then Brazil grows 175 MMT. And where are we again?

BTW be very careful about looking at crush. most recent crush numbers were down Sharply and honestly the growth in the oil market is fools gold right now. Especially if we hit a recession and commercial diesel usage goes down. There will be a lot less B whatever pumped and used.

12

u/ImNoAlbertFeinstein 20h ago

what we get for teaching our competition how to farm)

All our secret farming techniques got out.!

dang. now those people aren't going to be half as hungry. i blame Haber-Bosch.. 😠

The Agricultural Non-Proliferation Treaty never had any real teeth..

6

u/_Br549_ 20h ago

Guessing you're oblivious to what took place with North American influence in Brazil and Argentina in the 90s.

26

u/ImNoAlbertFeinstein 19h ago

ive been farming full time since the late 70s. the US is constantly exporting technology of every kind. it's what we do best.

GM taught toyota to build trucks after wwii. most of iur hog breeds are european origin. our ag chemical industry is based in nazi technology

we can't live in a bubble. even if know-how were even across the board ( it's not) we'd still have every advantage here (in a normal trade environment).

its hard to even take stock of our advantages.

16

u/ImNoAlbertFeinstein 19h ago

i dont want to argue but Germany could have kept the haber bosch process secret and US farmers would still be in the dustbowl.

every tractor i see these days on tv or elsewhere is pulling an anhydrous rig.

1

u/k10john 3h ago

I guess for some reason I open the farming subreddit to read from inciters about how Trump and Elon touched them in their nono places

1

u/origionalgmf Grain 19h ago

I was gonna say "profit?" But the answer to that is still no

150

u/IntoTheWildBlue 21h ago

I mean Nobel winning Economist (which i understand are pretty freaking smart) warned everyone about this. And we're surprised

61

u/MiniTab 21h ago

Also, anyone that ever watched Ferris Bueller.

30

u/macroeconprod 20h ago

Anyone? Anyone? Bueler?

76

u/r2k-in-the-vortex 21h ago

Forget Nobel prizes, anyone with two braincells to rub together can tell you that this is what tariffs result in. That's why the gop cope was "he is not really going to do it", of fucking course he did it.

30

u/fleebleganger 17h ago

And now the cope is “the economy was shit anyway”. 

It wasn’t good and there were a bajillion flaws, but it was growing. 

Not anymore. 

13

u/MidwestAbe 21h ago

I wasn't surprised.

54

u/Still_Tailor_9993 13h ago edited 12h ago

I'm a Norwegian farmer with fjord aquaculture license. My uncle and I have salmon and trout fish pens.

We used to use American soybeans in our feed. Well, never again. The US has proven unreliable, and even if the government changes or Trump changes his mind, I will not do business with American companies again.

And now we are looking for a new, non us, bulk soybean source. I might even have to cancel stocking orders....

16

u/Crazy-Canuck463 9h ago

Canada grows some soybeans. 😇

12

u/MidwestAbe 7h ago

The US isn't even the world's top growers of soybeans. I think you can find another place to buy them.

I've perhaps eaten your farm raised salmon and trout. If so, it was tasty.

31

u/_Br549_ 21h ago edited 21h ago

Beans have been shit since last summer due to over supply

-12

u/MidwestAbe 21h ago

Nov Beans were over $11 this summer.

And now?

20

u/_Br549_ 21h ago

The low was in August at 9.47

-13

u/MidwestAbe 21h ago

Cool.

39

u/squarebody8675 20h ago

We can hire children in America for $5 an hour to make soybean maga hats!

9

u/MidwestAbe 20h ago

Finally a decent idea

39

u/troutbumdreamin 22h ago

They don’t care. My six figures in paid taxes as well as tax dollars from other hard working Americans will go to subsidize these welfare queens.

45

u/BrtFrkwr 19h ago

You mean welfare queens like musk and his $200 billion a year from the federal government?

21

u/49orth 22h ago

Elon musk and his DOGE SS team will have fun taking money away from the poor and sick so that Trump's supporters can benefit.

14

u/beekeeper1981 21h ago

Calling farmers welfare queens isn't fair IMO. Yes a higher percentage voted for Trump but there's lots of other demographics that did too. Farmers don't want welfare they want to work hard and get a fair price for their crops. Bailout programs don't cover the all the lost money, if they are lucky they will be just barely above water.

Sure, you can say they are getting what they voted for. People of all walks of life voted for Trump thinking it would be better for themselves and America. Obviously they were wrong.

25

u/fleebleganger 17h ago

Farmers are just as big of welfare queens as “the poors” they like to deride as welfare queens. 

Most anyone wants to work for a fair wage. Problem is, so many of us don’t get a fair wage

-53

u/_Br549_ 21h ago

It's a little early to be saying everyone who voted for Trump was wrong. Everything that's has happened thus far has been expected

36

u/beekeeper1981 21h ago

A relatively small percentage of Trump voters now realize it was a bad decision. What they believe doesn't really make a difference to me. It's not too early for me to understand is was a major mistake. This tarrif war/highest peacetime tax increase in history, will not accomplish the stated goals.

-69

u/_Br549_ 21h ago

A shit day under Trump is better than any day under Harris

25

u/beekeeper1981 21h ago

A recession with inflation is what Trump will cause. That's worse than what happened under Biden/Harris.

I guess it's possible Trump flip flops again.. that might prevent the worse case scenario.

-28

u/_Br549_ 21h ago

Time will tell.

15

u/SavageDownSouth 20h ago

RemindMe! 1 year

1

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13

u/personwhoisok 20h ago

It's literally inevitable

17

u/Nerakus 20h ago

You know it’s bad when even apolitical folk don’t agree with you

-8

u/_Br549_ 20h ago edited 20h ago

I take it with a grain of salt.....this is reddit, hysteria, and mass panic overtake rational thoughts

33

u/Nerakus 20h ago

Rational thoughts escape Trump voters unfortunately

11

u/ShelZuuz 16h ago

Yeah it was really important that that couple of dozen trans kids not be able to compete in girls sports.

/s

0

u/jrossetti 14h ago edited 5h ago

Only if you ignore all the negatives and pretend they dont exist.

3

u/gexckodude 3h ago

Who did the farmers vote for?

1

u/rectumrooter107 5h ago

We sold ours out the field, since we're small with no storage. Hopefully, from my pov, prices at least pick up at next harvest time.

-5

u/P-B-Town 9h ago

Just be happy you got what you voted for

11

u/MidwestAbe 7h ago

Uh, I voted for Harris.

-9

u/Odd-Historian-6536 15h ago

That food is for the people. American farmers will feed Americans now. Eat your damn soy beans.

8

u/ommnian 11h ago

Lololol you gonna switch from beef to tofu?

1

u/Maccabee2 9h ago

Who can afford beef since 2022?

-23

u/uonlydie_once 21h ago

Sell it in America!!

27

u/MidwestAbe 20h ago

An answer full of nuance and understanding of a global marketplace. The consumer demand of soybeans, meal and oil and the fact that 94% of the world's population lives somewhere other than the United States.

I sure hope i missed your /snark.

Just incase other people believe that, then read above.

8

u/BrtFrkwr 19h ago

Tremendous blast of ignorance. Like all the magas.

-8

u/uonlydie_once 18h ago

Sarcasm dawg.

-20

u/charlestontime 20h ago

Not even a billion, chump change for trump.