r/options • u/a6project • 1d ago
Call me crazy but my strategy for TSLA calls
I know macro is bad and market sentiment is equally terrible but I think that’s where opportunities lie.
Tesla is doing unsupervised full self driving in Austin with robo taxi in June.
Thinking about entering around mid May when the stock price is even lower. And get out before the end of August.
It won’t be massive but with good timing it can have decent return.
Thought?
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u/Dicey82 1d ago
Why not sell some $150 puts for next Friday and take yourself out for a nice dinner on the weekend?
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u/a6project 1d ago
Price of premium. That’s why
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u/Dicey82 1d ago
I’m willing to bet TSLA doesn’t go below $150 in a week…you’re receiver premium, which is insanely high right now…
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u/mwilkens 1d ago
Picking up pennies in front of a potential oncoming freight train. Max profit for each contract is $151 with potential to lose $15,000. I'm a gambling man but I wouldn't touch that bet.
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u/Dicey82 1d ago
Potential to lose $15,000? As in TSLA goes from $150 to $0?
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u/Civil_Ad_7068 1d ago edited 1d ago
The most likely catalyst for TSLA and the market going lower would be the uncertainty and potentially disastrous economic impact of Trump's tariffs policy. If they are still in effect over a month from now, I'd expect Trump to double down and stay course. Now, if that's the case I would be extremely surprised at any kind of bounce.
From a macro perspective, if tariffs are to persist I'd anticipate a global recession. Investment will be halted due to uncertainty and growing prices will continue to restrict weak consumers. This in conjunction w massive defunding to the IRS and a weaker dollar will result in our deficit growing, leading to upward pressure on interest rates on top of everything else.
The only way the market will rally is if people can regain confidence in being able to predict the future to at least some extent, so even in a world where Trump reverses these tariffs it's likely we don't rip off the bottom as that only makes him more unpredictable.
Personally I wouldn't touch calls with a 10ft pole in this environment, so if you really think it'll bounce because Tesla is going to release some groundbreaking tech just buy shares. IMO the stock is still way too expensive even after the recent pullback for a number of reasons.
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u/sam99871 1d ago
This definitely seems right, we’re only at the start of the storm. But there is a possibility of some kind of rebound if countries start making deals with Trump to reduce the tariffs on their goods. It isn’t clear to me yet whether Trump imposed tariffs to bully/bargain with foreign countries or if the tariffs are here to stay with no bargaining or relenting. I suspect it’s the latter, which will be devastating, but a couple of quick deals could persuade the market this is just a short term bargaining ploy.
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u/OrderlyPanic 1d ago edited 1d ago
Remember when Canada and Mexico made a deal with Trump in his first term? It was called the USMCA. Didn't save Canada from getting 25% tariffs and threats of annexation today. Trump's word is worth very little, he's broken many agreements as it suits him. Everyone can see he really, really wants tariffs as the end goal. That is why the market sold off so hard, because the admin made it abundantly clear that any kind of trade deficit was unacceptable. If the end goal is to have balanced trade then I'm we've got a lot furhter to fall to put it nicely.
So how does this end? Well you need the Supreme Court to rule that Trump admin exceeded their authority under the law. FedSoc Judges are loathe to restrict Republican Presidents but they also don't like to see their billionaire patrons getting hosed. But whichever way they rule, courts usually move slow. Even an emergency injunction would be something that takes place after the tariffs have gone into effect. Alternatively you need Congress to change the law, which means you need every Dem and 77 House GOP and 20 Republican Senators to vote to do so (to survive the inevitable Trump veto). Or you need Trump to die or be removed from office some other way. To my eye the only thing that could maybe happen before massive economic damage is intervention from the Courts. And that would be the least reassuring ting from the market's perspective because the Trump admin would look for other laws that they think give them authority to introduce other tariffs.
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u/briefcase_vs_shotgun 1d ago
Thinking he does a few quick deals before the 9th to give countries the idea he can be worked with. This would be the *smart play in this absolutely idiotic situation dude has caused. May buy a few calls on Monday or Tuesday. Then back to puts before tech er and fomc prob gonna be ugly
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u/douche_packer 1d ago
IF the tech is ready for June, it's ready for rn. They aren't rolling it out early b/c it doesnt work
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u/Federal_Flow_3877 1d ago
Yep. If it was anywhere near the capabilities promised they wouldn't have been forced to "rebrand" in China the other day to remove anything that even hints at self-driving capabilities. That market won't even allow FSD to be called FSD. Oh yeah, and shut down the trial after a couple days.
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u/squareplates 1d ago
Bro talking about robo-taxis like they won't be the biggest target for vandalism in the country.
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u/crankthehandle 1d ago
before they become target for vandalism, they have to exist first. So nothing to worry about for the next 5-10 years
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u/AppropriateGoat7039 1d ago
I wouldn’t touch Tesla rn. I’m still shorting it with TSLQ. The brand has suffered irreparable damage. No where to go but down. That’s my 2 cents.
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u/phatsuit2 1d ago
Shouldn't the Tariffs increase market share. The competitor's Hyundai and Kia are going to be hit hard. Tesla is made in the US..
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u/AppropriateGoat7039 1d ago
But no one wants to buy a Tesla or be associated with Elon Musk whatsoever. Sales are plummeting around the world. Brand destruction has already taken place.
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u/oddlogic 1d ago
I wouldn’t say “no one.”
No one that you and I hang out with on the regs? Sure. But no one? People are still driving them in Kentucky. Maybe even proudly.
Beyond that…he may have opened up a market that previously wouldn’t have bought one. Dig?
Also….rumor has it that Saudi money is involved in propping up the stock. Honestly….given the price action, and what that stock should be doing right now, I don’t doubt it.
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u/jankenpoo 1d ago
When’s the last time some CEO ruined a brand so badly that they protested outside of stores and punks are spray painting “swasticar” on the products? Who wants to be associated with that? Who wants to be a target? I think the only chance Tesla has is if Elon dies or sells completely out and goes away.
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u/oddlogic 1d ago
You’re living inside of a bubble. And I say that as someone who completely agrees with you - the brand is toxic because the CEO is unhinged, the cybertruck is a complete monstrosity, I could go on - 1.5 years ago I was solidly in the camp of buying a used model S to replace my car. And now I would rather take public transportation in a city with a shit system than to own one. So please….hear me out.
There are people who genuinely believe:
the “left” is participating in acts of domestic terrorism by vandalizing and setting fire to cars/dealerships
Elon is part of the MAGA enforcement mechanism/goal to literally make America the thing promised to them in their own minds/cultures, which is an almighty (intentional word choice) superpower that rules the world, both financially and in military might, in a zero sum game
any friend of Trump’s is a friend of theirs, ergo, Elon is to be supported.
You and I are not living in the same reality as the people who might be the new market for Tesla vehicles. Despite the protests, despite the current brand optics and alignment with fascism, there exist people who do not align with your own political views. The polls would clearly show that, no matter how much you wish that it wasn’t so.
It’s disorienting, isn’t it? To live in a world where so many people have not only an opposing view from your own - people that you run into at the bank, the market, your neighbors - they cannot all be aligned with you, or else the election wouldn’t have turned out like it did. And yet, here we are.
It’s critical that we understand why. That we open discussion. That we listen. That we disagree with fervor, and….compassion. Because if we do not, and continue on this path of polarization, we are, all of us, doomed to the polarized monsters that social media make us out to be; enslaved to a two party system that (has, so far) only served the wealthy.
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u/phatsuit2 1d ago
True, guess we will find out the extent on 4/22. Been following this stock for years and whenever everyone turned against it, it blasted off burying shorts. Also wouldn't it put it past Elon to do a huge buyback or even announce some crazy government incentive/contract....
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u/Potential-Menu3623 18h ago
I think people would sooner buy a used car than a new Tesla during a recession, stagflation. I’m team TSLQ too.
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u/JuryNo3851 1d ago
TSLA sources a lot of materials and components from outside the US. Additionally, countries that impose retaliatory tariffs will cause TSLA to be less competitive in those countries.
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u/sleepystork 1d ago
Agree. Still short. The California thing is smoke. It is Tesla employees drive the cars and they have to ferry other Tesla employees. We know he is big in vaporware (robot demo). I would be surprised to see $50.
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u/MeteorPunch 1d ago
The board is now asking him to step down... if/when that happens, it will likely rocket. Something to keep in mind.
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u/Endless_Zen 1d ago
As a european, I politely disagree, I don't care who the CEO will be if change happens, I am not buying tesla in my lifespan. Also, elmo will remain the shareholder and main profiteer.
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u/AgilePeace5252 1d ago
I mean maybe you won’t but Tesla pricing has never been based on people actually thinking it through do that might be enough for it to go up again
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u/VenserMTG 1d ago
This is a lie. Tesla pricing is based on a vision and promises. The promises are empty and the vision is obsolete. People will realize it and the balloon will pop.
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u/theglassishalf 1d ago
There will be a rally when Musk is forced out, but given that the fundamentals of the brand are toast, I plan to buy puts on the bounce.
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u/Alone-Phase-8948 12h ago
It'll take a while for a rally to occur after Musk is forced out because then all the Fanboys will liquidate correct?
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u/theglassishalf 9h ago
Could be. Musk will still be the biggest shareholder, so he would urge them to hold/buy. No idea, tbh. He's got an iron grip on a lot of people so maybe he stays on and all the cultists can go down with the ship.
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u/GreatPhase7351 1d ago
Idk, even if he stepped down Tesla brand will continue to have his stink on it. Will take years to wash off, if ever.
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u/Eggs-Benny 1d ago
Have you taken time to see where things stand with robotaxi progress? Are you aware that it won't be the robotaxi model? Are you aware it won't be consumer vehicles but more likely a Tesla fleet? Are you aware there's a strong chance it'll be supervised driving with human safety drivers? Are you aware of where Tesla is in the permitting process in Texas? Or is this just based on vibes?
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u/GreatPhase7351 1d ago
Sitting on my $255 strike puts from February…Friday it gained 22k. Whole things up 650%. Hanging on another week or two as it expires on may 16.
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u/VonnyVonDoom 1d ago
Go all in. No stop loss. Robotaxi and robots will be fully operational by may.
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u/nillateral 1d ago
TSLA will keep going down until they kick musk out probably
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u/Alone-Phase-8948 12h ago
In my humble opinion then it'll go lower after that, before a rebound occurs.
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u/futureformerjd 1d ago
I think you have no clue, none of us do, it's a meme stock, and you're better off going to Vegas and betting it all on red.
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u/VenserMTG 1d ago
Their lead software engineer just quit. I don't think that reflects anything positive regarding robotaxi, or their fsd.
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u/Sweaty_Slide 1d ago
I feel like brand is very important for any company and with all the tesla negativity happening, idk how long unmanned tesla cars are gonna last out there before being vandalized and destroyed. then again maybe things will calm down as folks move on from elon's recent insanities. Earnings will be interesting tho end of this month, I got teslz 2 time inverse lined up cus
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u/UnFuckingGovernable 23h ago
Idk if it's going lower... It might but i thought it just made a bullish divergence, i may be incorrect though.
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u/astromouse2024 1d ago
I’ve only ever had bad experiences with tsla. It’s like playing with fire. Doesn’t always move the way you’d think it would.
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u/losingthefarm 1d ago
I think that unsupervised FSD in Austin will be a disaster..... if they actually do it.
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u/Gotherl22 1d ago edited 1d ago
You making an trade base off uncertain future catalyst of an company when the market is in fallen knife mode. GL on that!
If you're lucky and time it right but the majority of the times when traders attempt to guess the bottom don't usually end well.
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u/BagelsRTheHoleTruth 1d ago
Not only based off an uncertain future catalyst, but based off of the statements of the known liar and hype man Musk. Let's talk about FSD when the Roadster is released. After all, it's been "next year" for at least eight years now.
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u/Gotherl22 1d ago
What really drives an stock is overall market and sentiment ESP some ticker like TSLA. Options aren't long-term investing so fundamentals don't really matter that much. Your looking to capture moves in the shorter term. Unless, you're buying 3+ year leaps then maybe it will work.
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u/a6project 1d ago
I’ll have to see how things are after April and unemployment data, etc. tons of variables and uncertainty for sure. Just brainstorming random ideas and thoughts
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u/edwinchs 1d ago
Since when does stock represent real value?
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u/xoogl3 1d ago
If it did, $TSLA would be below 50 right now.
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u/LopsidedPlace2772 19h ago
Really?!?
• In 2024, Tesla maintained a dominant presence in the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market, capturing approximately 48.7% of total EV sales.  • The Model Y and Model 3 were the top two best-selling EVs in the U.S., accounting for over 40% of all EV sales in 2024.
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u/A_Dragon 1d ago
I don’t know man…I mean sure…it could be a good idea but you’re making the mistake of thinking markets operate on logic.
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u/ayashifx55 1d ago
I have a Tesla Y right now but I wonder who the fuck gets one (I live in Canada)
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u/zensamuel 1d ago
For calls to work out on this stock, I would be looking for their sales to drop in half on their earnings. That usually sends this stock. If the cyber cab works out, this stock is cooked.
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u/Infamous-Potato-5310 1d ago
I dont see why any options player even touches TSLA. Its got a mind of its own, usually if its down it means other things are going to be equally down that dont randomly(as much anyway) defy logic other times.
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u/theglassishalf 1d ago
The fun thing about Texas letting Elon running his cars unsupervised in Austin will be the -15 percent day when it murders its first child.
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u/bdh2067 1d ago
Waymo has been all over SF for years now. And Austin and Las Vegas for months. And soon DC and Miami. Tesla has a lot of catching up to do with nothing but self-inflicted headwinds to help.
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u/douche_packer 1d ago
and if their tech was ready.... they would've just gone ahead and released it to get ahead of these bad numbers
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u/rosier_nights 1d ago edited 1d ago
I'm betting it will be released before it's ready and all the bugs are worked out in an attempt to pump the stock after bad earnings. Then the inevitable accidents will happen due to the tech not being road safe/ready yet, and social media/mainstream media hungry for negative tesla news headlines will begin to come out, showcasing this fact.
I'm also wagering since these robotaxis will be driverless, they'll be easy targets for vandalism etc.
Edited to say: I'm 100% certain that Musk will blame any accidents caused by these death traps as the work of "saboteurs" and not his tech being faulty and dangerously rushed.
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u/meatlamma 1d ago
You think people boycotting Swastikars won’t spill over into robotaxis? That’s even easier to boycott. Tesla’s done. Cooked.
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u/DayAffectionate4077 1d ago
Honestly your plan sounds good. I've made ridiculous gains just off a 'what if im right' assumption.
Sure its volatile, but thats where the money is. Whatever expiry you're thinking of entering, double that
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u/JuryNo3851 1d ago edited 1d ago
There is nobody farther from safe fully unsupervised self driving than TSLA.
Musk has been promising it for years and FSD has only gotten worse as they went to only camera systems.
Folks say TSLA is an AI/Robotics company; if so, why do their vehicles have so many defects? Why does FSD have so many bugs?
TSLA has yet to demonstrate the software or sensor fusion tech to successfully pull off unsupervised full self driving. If they had that tech, they’d be putting it in their cars.
There is nobody on the market with SAE level 4 capabilities. TSLA FSD is considered levels 2-2+. There’s other OEMs with level 3 systems already approved in Europe and the US. By any measure, TSLA is no longer a market leader capabilities-wise with FSD.
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u/magic10trader 1d ago
Remember, Tesla lost 50% sales in Europe. So, idk if it will go up after earnings. Any bad news, even the slightest will definitely drop again.
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u/SettingPlastic373 1d ago
People always judge Elon so wrong lol. When he manipulated the market, people cheered for him. And now, when he actually helping the country saving money, people cursed him. After years of disliking him and his stock, I am actually opening my very 1st position on tesla for long term
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u/a6project 1d ago
Yep. I haven’t done deep dive on Tesla since it was so overvalued but I need to start analyzing the company. I don’t let my emotions get in the way of making money lol. Market is always irrational and gotta find a pocket of inefficiencies!
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u/RockLeoTTV 1d ago
Something to keep in mind is Earnings coming up on 04/22. Especially with how the Q1 Delivery numbers went.