r/politics • u/aliceindotardland West Virginia • 16d ago

Soft Paywall Trump Admin Threatens to Stop Social Security If DOGE Can’t Have Data

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-musk-stop-social-security-doge-data-1235300785/
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u/Sminahin 15d ago

I'm not sure it's the wrong attitude. Have you seen Republican town halls of late? They're full of absolutely furious older conservative types. Most of these people own guns and their anger is fairly directed at people promising to destroy America and actively threatening their lives.

What was it that Wyoming rep said while defending the elimination of life-or-death jobs against a town hall packed with over-60s, maybe over-70s shouting at her? "It’s so bizarre to me how obsessed you are with federal government."

This person's constituents were screaming at her and she blew them off and essentially said she was alright with killing them and their livelihood. The GOP is now in the fuck around and find out phase with their own base and it will bite them in the ass. I'm alright with that. We Dems can just sit back and make popcorn for once.

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u/ZebraMeatisBestMeat 15d ago

No it won't.  You are way too optimistic. 

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u/Sminahin 15d ago

If people stop getting social security checks, this will explode. That's always been the nuclear button. Most of the reason Republicans win is people don't actually believe they'll do something like this--it's perceived as Dem fearmongering.

If social security checks stop going out, things are going to get real very fast. Which is why I'm really, really hoping Republicans press that button--anything lesser and I don't think we'd see sufficient backlash unless we literally invade Canada or start a draft for a war with China. Social Security being compromised is easily the least damaging, most reversible of the extreme escalation options that would break through that threshold.

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u/wolfmanpraxis Pennsylvania 15d ago

They will 100% blame democrats/Biden or AOC/Hillary/Harris

Im not joking, this is the narrative they will push

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u/ERedfieldh 15d ago

Do you not realize how many times over the last decade we've seen some flavor of "if X happens then Y will explode"? And it never does?

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u/Neat_Egg_2474 15d ago

We have never, ever, seen something like cutting off social security. It would be impossible to compare it to anything that's happened in the last 40 years.

The thing is - he WONT cut it, he is threatening peoples money to get them mad at the courts. Thats it. If he cuts SS this early their whole plan falls apart and they know it.

The only fear GOP congress/senate have right now is being primaried by Trump. If the largest voting base in our country turns on Trump, then Congress will grow balls again and the current admin cant have that.

I dont see war from it, but I do see a mass wave of civil unrest, but again, he wont actually cut it.

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u/DiscoDigi786 15d ago

Oh people will definitely die. The level of stupidity and delusion is too high for that not to happen. Things will definitely get worse before they get better.

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u/YouShallNotPass92 15d ago

Spot on. If most of the country turns on Trump over SS, including his own voters, he would lose all his leverage with his own party. They will suddenly want to distance themselves from him or risk ruining their careers long term by sticking with him.

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u/Sminahin 15d ago

Yes. I literally have a background in campaign work and electoral studies. I'm very familiar. The last "if X happens Y will explode" framings were all for significantly lesser things.

But anyone who's studied political history also knows social security has always been the big one. The nuclear option. The hill they die on. It's like invading Russia in the winter. It's like getting involved in a land war in Asia. It's like going against a Sicilian when death is on the line. It's like saying "I hope nothing bad happens" in a horror movie.

Our surety in the past was laughable because frankly...it was over pretty small fry stuff that didn't impact people; you had to be politically engaged to care. But if people stop getting their social security checks, that actually matters for people.

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u/[deleted] 15d ago edited 10d ago

[deleted]

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u/Sminahin 15d ago

Yup. And social security is 100x more entrenched and beloved than Obamacare, especially by angry old people who are the bedrock of GOP support.

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u/Rambler330 15d ago

And these “angry old people” will literally tear his body and all his conspirators apart with our bare fingers if they cancel Social Security.

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u/Sminahin 15d ago

Exactly. You know the South Korean protests were getting serious when it was the over-50 crowd out getting rowdy with the police. That's when Park Geun-hye was just done.

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u/Neat_Egg_2474 15d ago

I completely agree with you and responded with something similar to op. They wont cut it, they are threatening peoples money to get them mad at the courts.

This is all for soundbites and manufactured outrage.

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u/Sminahin 15d ago

That's my fear. I'm really hoping they get carried away and actually go for it. Or, more likely, Musk breaks key departments so much that they accidentally screw up payments and start achieving the same effect.

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u/Neat_Egg_2474 15d ago

Yeah, that would be the canary in the coal mine for a lot of people that like to not pay attention.

I would love to know the voting % of those receiving SS and Medicare that voted for Trump, vs those that didnt.

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u/Syzygy2323 California 15d ago

It's like wearing a red shirt in a Star Trek landing party and beaming down to a hostile planet.

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u/Lumpy-Succotash-9236 15d ago

Like what?

Do you understand what's at stake here? This is 10,000's of people's existence... You can't possibly think americans will just die quietly and nobody will rise up. There's no precedent for the seriousness of this one. It will 100% result it riots.

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u/Sminahin 15d ago

Exactly this. And very importantly, the riots won't just be a bunch of people easily labeled as far-left agitators. It'll be old, heavily-white retirees. Like you're seeing in these townhalls. Many of whom are armed and would probably play much less nice than we have to in our equivalents.

Now I don't think the GOP would be that stupid. I do think Musk might be that stupid, or might disrupt the system enough that checks stop going out reliably, having the same effect. I'd be surprised if they completely followed through with it, but oh boy if they did...

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u/Syzygy2323 California 15d ago

Tens of thousands? It's more like tens of millions.

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u/Nemisis_the_2nd Great Britain 15d ago

We Dems can just sit back and make popcorn for once.

I wouldn't be so sure. AM radio and Fox will be doing everything in their power to scapegoat anyone other than republicans, and people will fall for it.

If they do turn on republcians, Dems also need to be organised to step in and fix the problems and avoid a power vaccum. (and ideally wipe out the rot for good)

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u/Sminahin 15d ago

Oh I completely agree--thought about that phrasing after I wrote it.

Half the reason we're in this spot is a near-religious devotion to inaction within the Dem party that's lasted decades, and that's why our polling #s are where they are.

I very specifically meant that it wouldn't be the usual crowd out protesting and raising a ruckus for once. The optics of these majority-white, older farmer types out for blood are very different than when we protest than our events.

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u/Helisent 14d ago

A lot of people around age 70 are liberal - having experienced the Vietnam/civil rights era. Even Wyoming is 30% democrat

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u/Sminahin 14d ago

Oh of course. I have an aunt who was at Kent State, and I'm from a big, mixed-race family that went hard in the CRM and took their lumps for it. And I've spent decades hearing them complain about how toothless their generations went after those fights. At the time, their age groups were also split. But half the former-liberals of their time seem to almost take a "we won our fight, problems solved" approach and become pro-establishment as they aged to suppress younger generations all over again. Plus protests and shouting at govt specifically has always been branded as the younger generation's game, so the optics when that's switched is a nice indicator that people are really pissed, beyond the usual.

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u/Helisent 13d ago

I saw a breakdown from the most recent election, and for some reason people in their late 50s, early 60s are the most conservative right now.

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u/More_Farm_7442 14d ago

Except not all of us Democrats can afford to sit back and relax. I'd be ready to jump off a cliff if my SS check didn't get deposited. I'm almost ready to jump the way things are going anyway.

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u/Sminahin 14d ago

I guess the questions are "how bad do you think this is going to get and what do you think it'll take to fix it?" Because right now, I think we're on track for a complete societal breakdown escalating over the mid-to-long term where we lose access to the safety nets, including social security further down the line. But if Republicans sufficiently piss people off at this point, we can still course correct and I'd hope the overnight outrage would be transformative and dodge a lot of pain in the mid-to-long term.

But what that'd take is a pretty grim and short list.

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u/More_Farm_7442 14d ago

I think things are bad, bad, bad, bad right now. It's all about to implode. They already done damage that will last for decades.

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u/Sminahin 14d ago

Exactly. I think them directly and visibly screwing with social security this early is one of the only things that could pull us out of this awful tailspin.

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u/Goodk4t 15d ago

The conservatives ain't going to do jack. Stop thinking someone else is going to fix this. The only question here is what will you do to stop then from turning your country into shit? 

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u/Sminahin 15d ago

Oh trust me, I'm plenty active. But Republicans cutting off social security checks would lead their own base to tear them apart and I would happily watch it happen.

Which is why I don't think they're going to be stupid enough to genuinely try beyond lip service, unfortunately. Because that would be a bit of a get out of jail free card for us. Musk is nuts enough he might, but I'd be shocked if their cockroach like survival instincts didn't kick in for the rest of them on this front.