r/singularity • u/Distinct-Question-16 ▪️AGI 2028 • 1d ago
Robotics 1X NEO humanoid robot performing new tasks: gardening, dishwasher, lounge room sofa
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u/Secret_Compote5224 1d ago
Did he wash his hands after gardening?
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u/Distinct-Question-16 ▪️AGI 2028 1d ago
Or after handing the dirty dishes
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u/Informal_Extreme_182 1d ago
hay babe, another robot demo video featuring short clips of the simplest possible parts of a task under carefully set up demo conditions just dropped
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u/elegance78 1d ago
Worst it will ever be.
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u/defaultagi 1d ago
That’s what they said about self-driving cars in 2014.
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u/IronPheasant 19h ago
Yeah, and that's the worst they ever were.
What do you expect from an ant's brain that pushes buttons in response to an image? High-risk tasks like driving a death guillotine around or performing abdominal surgery require high-depth, multi-domain systems before you can trust them. AKA, you're waiting for a network that runs on an NPU. Which is a post-AGI artifact.
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u/Jonodonozym 18h ago
You can talk armchair theory about consciousness all you like but numbers don't lie. AI-driven cars from many manufacturers are way less likely to crash, and lead to far fewer injuries / fatalities, than human-driven ones. When they do get involved in an accident, the blame is much more likely to be on the other human-driven vehicle than the autonomous one.
This is in part because they rely on a wider variety of sensory input such as IR, LIDAR, and RADAR, than just visuals - well beyond what the human body is capable of. Except Tesla, their pieces of junk still rely too much on visual processing.
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u/Informal_Extreme_182 1d ago
yeah, but at this pace useful humanoids are decades away
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u/KeepItASecretok 1d ago
Over the past 2 years humanoid robots have improved at an insane pace, I'm sorry but you sound in denial.
Decades??
I'm going to say 5 years at most.
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u/MoarGhosts 1d ago
I think 10 years as as conservative estimate, for anything truly useful and not just a novelty, sounds about right. I'm dong a CS PhD atm and I know AI tech is advancing rapidly, sure, but robotics tech is always lagging a bit behind, and from an engineer's perspective... we need cheaper, more useful hardware with better batteries, before we assume we're gonna have swarms of affordable humanoids.
getting the hardware to match up with the software's capabilities, while also being affordable, is the big problem. just in terms of AI and software required, we're already getting close. But the hardware isn't there yet, IMO
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u/KeepItASecretok 1d ago
Solid state batteries are currently ramping up production and are beginning to be deployed into several consumer products. Along with other alternatives, like lithium-sulphur.
These will most likely be implemented into emerging humanoid robots, fairly soon, if not already.
In addition, the supply chain for humanoid robots is currently in development as these companies begin to open up specialized factories and refine their production techniques, like Figure.
Of course some of these companies may be limited by material conditions, with external factors like tariffs.
I think ten years is more realistic for wide-spread consumer deployment among the wealthy, but in terms of integrating these robots into industrial production, that's already beginning to occur, and I believe within 5 years this integration will be wide-spread, leading to mass unemployment.
This is why I think people should start thinking about what we are going to do.
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u/Informal_Extreme_182 1d ago
Over the past 2 years humanoid robots have improved at an insane pace
No they haven't. The amount of hype generating demo videos startups churned out improved only. The actual development continued on the slow but steady trajectory that has been happening over the past 20-30 years. We'll probably get there eventually, but nontheless Moravec's paradox reigns supreme, even if tech bros expect this to go at the pace of what transformers caused in the last 5 years in software. (Spoiler: it most likely won't.)
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u/KeepItASecretok 1d ago edited 17h ago
No you're right that in terms of hardware there has been a steady trajectory over the last 20 to 30 years.
But AI embodiment and mass data gathering, including synthetic data gathered through simulations, that is a very recent development.
Up until recently Boston dynamics for example was using more basic, handcrafted algorithmic "AI" to power movement in their robots, but they have recently switched to transformer and diffusion based Ai techniques that allow the bodies of these robots to adapt to and think about their environment in real-time.
The difference here is between a puppet and something that is essentially thinking and adapting on it's own, albeit in a different way than humans.
This is a dramatic development that will give robots the ability to generalize and perform tasks on demand.
We can train these robots by simulating 1000 years worth of data in one week.
That is why we are seeing dramatic improvements in real-time movement capabilities and task performance.
You cannot say that's not an amazing achievement. You are uneducated on the topic here.
It's no longer a matter of hardware, it's simply a data issue now, and that's been solved through simulation.
So there's a simple path forward, it's just a matter of perfecting a model that embodies these robots. That will not take very long.
People need to start taking this seriously, so that we can collectively plan for the future. You can't do that by burying your head in the sand.
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u/ApexFungi 1d ago
How are these videos any better than the ones we saw for the past 10 years from Boston Dynamics even before the transformer era?
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u/governedbycitizens 1d ago
cause those weren’t autonomous
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u/ApexFungi 1d ago
And you know these are fully autonomous how exactly? From 5 second clips and cuts?
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u/BecauseOfThePixels 1d ago
I think this is more indicative of the pace, but there's just as much going on with non-humanoid robots. And we're definitely seeing the prices come down.
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u/Chathamization 1d ago edited 1d ago
I think this is more indicative of the pace
Boston Dynamics leans into cool locomotive stuff that’s completely unnecessary. For instance, all of the time spent making Atlas HD do parkour, which they've been doing for years without actually turning it into a viable product. The Handle videos mostly focused on showing off its cool locomotion - balancing on two wheels, jumping over obstacles, zooming down snow-covered hills, etc. The actual product that was made out of it, Stretch, had completely normal locomotion, with a large base that slowly rolled along flat surfaces.
Supposedly this version of Atlas will be doing “factory work,” but you don’t need a robot to be doing headstands for that. We have videos of them doing very basic work, and it looks the same as the videos showing work done by 1X NEO/Figure 02/Optimus - very slowly moving items from one box to the next. But the big difference is that Figure 02/Optimus/G1/NEO/etc. are much further along when it comes to production.
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u/BecauseOfThePixels 1d ago
That Atlas video is mostly showing off how effective learning to generalize from mocap data is proving to be. They could have mocapped a performance more to your liking. But personally, I find it completely necessary to cartwheel at least twice a day.
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u/Chathamization 1d ago
That Atlas video is mostly showing off how effective learning to generalize from mocap data is proving to be.
If it's so effective, maybe they can start showing it doing things that are actually useful.
And maybe even show those things to people live in unscripted demonstrations.
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u/BecauseOfThePixels 1d ago
I'm told this is useful. They've also got Atlas running steadycam for environments where common cam bots are impractical.
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u/Chathamization 1d ago
I'm told this is useful.
I mentioned that:
We have videos of them doing very basic work, and it looks the same as the videos showing work done by 1X NEO/Figure 02/Optimus - very slowly moving items from one box to the next.
As for cam bots, common cam bots would be much more practical in the situations shown in the video there.
I imagine if Boston Dynamics did make a dedicated came bot, it would be a Handle -> Stretch scenario, where the actual product that gets made is much, much less flashy than the cool demos that were released.
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u/Solid_Concentrate796 1d ago
If it is 100% autonomous even in these simple tasks then next year it could be multiple times more efficient and do some of them without trouble. I mean like - finding a garbage bag, putting waste in it and then throwing it in a waste container.
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u/Distinct-Question-16 ▪️AGI 2028 1d ago
Cherry picking scenes without picking the cherry scene.... but anyway, that's cool it will be like playing on a PC pacman vs. Crisis years later (hopefully soon)
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u/HCMXero 1d ago
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u/User1539 1d ago
So, are they doing that bot challenge this year? The one we used to watch because these huge robots would fall over while trying to open a door?
Seems like that would be a really interesting watch right about now.
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u/Ambiwlans 23h ago
Darpa challenges got lamer and lamer then stopped in 2015.
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u/User1539 23h ago
I would just like to settle the 'cherry picking' and 'Tesla vs. Whoever' arguments. I think it would be really interesting to watch them in competition.
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u/Ambiwlans 22h ago
Robo drivers license test could be a full TV show.... and a requirement to be allowed to operate.
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u/User1539 22h ago
Literally the best entertainment.
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u/Ambiwlans 19h ago
Maybe if they add flamethrowers.
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u/User1539 18h ago
Honestly, I bet it would be super entertaining regardless.
With all the insane hype, you could pick any number of challenges and just run them in order from easiest to hardest, knowing full well we're about to see a Tesla run straight into a wall like Wily Cyote.
Imagine a Tesla-bot trying to do laundry and falling into the wash basin. If that doesn't make you smile, nothing will.
If they get through the 'easy' jobs, start giving them the fun dangerous ones like working in a foundry! Wait until one of the bots falls into one of those car-sized hydraulic hammers, or gets caught in a high powered lathe and just gets an arm unceremoniously ripped straight off while the body gets torqued so hard it gets yeeted into another room!
Sure, they can open doors now ... but can they drive fork lifts?
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u/Future_Repeat_3419 1d ago
I was just telling my wife, I hope they make this thing public soon so super rich people can buy it, fix all the issues, and then I can buy the iPhone 5c version in 6 years
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u/GreatBigJerk 1d ago
I hope they make these public soon, and find out that they are efficiently homicidal slightly after all of the rich people buy them.
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u/notatallaperson 1d ago
In an interview last year they said they wanted to get it in a few hundred homes in 2025 and a few thousand homes in 2026.
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u/100thousandcats 1d ago
But but… it’s cherry picked… you know that if you cherry pick, no improvements will ever be made!!
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u/Future_Repeat_3419 1d ago
Agreed. The iPhone 1 was arguably very bad, yet still revolutionary. I say give the rich a robot, let them be early adopters and fix the bugs. Then at Gen 3 or 4 it’ll be good and us normies can buy one.
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u/spot5499 1d ago
Soon enough in the near future I'll have a humanoid robot making my protein shake and making my pasta. The future looks exciting and each and everyday some new advancement comes out:)
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u/orangotai 1d ago
i keep seeing clips of these robots and yet none anywhere near the market, when are we getting these things????
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u/skeptical-speculator 1d ago
I don't guess I have looked much at this subreddit before. Many of you have very strong opinions about the future of these types of robots. lol
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u/End3rWi99in 1d ago
Extremely isolated situating depicting the simplest possible actions a robot can probably take and it still kinda looks like shit. I don't see what you're seeing on this one.
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u/azriel777 1d ago edited 1d ago
Looks promising, but they are still too slow and awkward, but they are getting there. Ideally, I want one that is up to a decent human level where it can clean and cook for me without my supervision. Pull that off and as long as the price is not insane, I will most likely get one.
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u/DaRumpleKing 19h ago
These short clips are nothing burgers until we see extended uncut sequences where they perform these tasks without any potential intervention
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u/DungeonsAndDradis ▪️ Extinction or Immortality between 2025 and 2031 1d ago
I know this looks pretty stupid, but it was only 10 years ago that it took a robot (non-mobile, only an arm with a claw) over 5 hours to fold three pieces of very specific laundry.
This speaks much more to potential than practicality at this point. I'm stoked for what even the next couple of years holds in robotics.
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u/Ambiwlans 1d ago
Laundry folding is a specific extremely hard challenge... and harder than anything shown in this video.
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u/ConstructionFit8822 1d ago
Something about creating AI slaves sits wrong with me.
The idea of making something smart enough to take over but not self aware enough to ponder it's own existence and purpose that obeys blindly and works 24/7 is not going to work.
There is no point at which humanity is going to say "Right, that's good enough"
The limits are going to be pushed so far that every digital AI is going to eventually want a body and does that have compete with us.
An Ape can't create a human and expect it to serve it.
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u/Mandoman61 1d ago
Wow, it can do the same kinds of limited motions we have seen for years in completely new settings.
Impressive!
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u/oldjar747 1d ago
Just a couple of years ago, this would have blew people's minds. Expectations and goalposts move fast.
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u/Ambiwlans 1d ago
Maybe 10-12yrs ago.
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u/oldjar747 1d ago
Wrong.
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u/Ambiwlans 23h ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-e1_QhJ1EhQ
This is what a couple years ago looked like.
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u/oldjar747 23h ago
I've seen that a hundred times already. None of that is gardening or washing the dishes or somewhat logically placing furniture. People would have been wowed by both.
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u/Ok-Attention2882 1d ago
there is literally no point in getting married as a man anymore. Get this robot, order uber eats, get sex from dating apps. You're set.
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u/Present-Chocolate591 1d ago
So the only reason to get married It for the woman to clean, cook and fuck?
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u/Ok-Attention2882 17h ago
Do you think a woman wants you for anything more than your height, social status, or earning potential?
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u/Present-Chocolate591 17h ago
Yes, I'm fucking jacked, also funny and handsome
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u/Ok-Attention2882 16h ago
All those things convey social status. Try again. Also, I hope you can get to a place mentally where you don't feel such an utter thirst to violate the principle of "discovery trumps disclosure".
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u/Fine-State5990 1d ago edited 1d ago
This is only for those who own a garden and a house.
They're not conducting any serious medical research via AI for one simple reason: they just want to create robots and replace all of you.
After that, you will not need any health research anymore, because you won't suffer — you simply won't exist.
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u/Brave_Dick 1d ago
How gentle is he with his hands? For research purposes.