r/stocks • u/2PhotoKaz • 2d ago

Broad market news Market getting smashed, where is cash going?

Clearly a massive sell off is happening, are traders (big and small) just sitting on cash once they sell? Gold, the bastion of safe heavens, is also getting hit.

Bonds? Simple interest? Are any sectors up in this mess?

136 Upvotes

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171

u/KissmySPAC 2d ago

Debt and bonds.

45

u/NeonistheFuture 2d ago

I worry even bonds won’t be safe tho…

45

u/westcoastlink 2d ago edited 2d ago

Yup, we're pissing off literally every country around the world besides Russia and north Korea. If everyone retaliates which includes dumping bonds... Well....

18

u/uniklyqualifd 2d ago

Japan is pissed off. China is furious.

35

u/GoodShitBrain 2d ago

Japan and China are friendly again. That’s how bad this is

10

u/KissmySPAC 2d ago

If that happens then food and water. Jesus.

7

u/Unbentmars 2d ago

Trump has bankrupted numerous companies and performed multiple crypto rugpulls.

Calling it now; a day will come where he will just announce “we’re not paying any of our debts anymore” or outright declare the country bankrupt as an attempt to not pay interest or other debts.

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u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

5

u/KissmySPAC 2d ago

Same, but im not in bonds that much. Still riding puts until something changes. If VIX dives again, i might buy more puts in def sectors.

5

u/independent_thinke 2d ago

Corporate or us bonds or bnd and bndx?

-12

u/PraiseBogle 2d ago

If youre not already retired this was an incredibly stupid move. Quite frankly, even if you are retired it was stupid. You should always have exposure to equities. 

13

u/Main-Perception-3332 2d ago

In normal times I’d agree. But these are not normal times, and hanging out in bonds for a short time seems perfectly reasonable.

3

u/Dr-McLuvin 2d ago

“For a short time”

How long until you sell your bonds and buy back into equities?

9

u/Main-Perception-3332 2d ago

My initial target to start dipping my toes back in was when the S&P 500 was down 20-25% of ATH, which we’re approaching the low end of, but I’ve honestly been thinking of revising that down based on continued bearish developments. I didn’t really account for the tariffs being this maximalist, so that’s part of my homework this weekend.

This was both easier to see coming, and harder to know when to get back in, since it was self inflicted rather a “natural” market development whose unwinding can be anticipated.

6

u/drjd2020 2d ago

I agree. The "markets" are unwinding much faster than I thought they would under Trump. Now I'm looking at 30-40% correction by mid-May then gradual rebound once the dust settles.

5

u/KCGeezer 2d ago

Create a problem and then claim you’re a miracle worker when it ends. Straight out of Putin’s playbook.

3

u/Main-Perception-3332 2d ago

Yeah, my gut tells me this is baseline scenario now after tariff day.

1

u/TuskaTheDaemonKilla 2d ago

At minimum you're going to want to wait for the April 30th GDP growth numbers to make their way through the market.

1

u/KissmySPAC 2d ago

Old farts can't understand the new world order. They think it's the 1950's.

2

u/drjd2020 2d ago

I don't think people realize yet that everything has changed since Trump took office. You are experiencing a paradigm shift that will invalidate all known market strategies that people relied on over the last 16 years.

1

u/obscureobject2574 2d ago

🤣. That’s fucking funny. You be scared and keep everything in cash. Let’s see how that turns out for you in 5-10-15 years. I’ll be buying as the market is going down, don’t give a shit whether it’s another 20 or 30 or 40%

3

u/drjd2020 2d ago

Nobody said anything about keeping everything in cash. I'm just saying that BTFD and passive investing is dead. But go ahead, enjoy the ride.

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u/obscureobject2574 2d ago

That’s quite a pronouncement to make that passive investing is dead. And I’ve been on the ride many times including 2000 2008 and 2020 but let me guess, this time it’s different and market will never recover?

4

u/drjd2020 2d ago edited 2d ago

Unless Trump flip-flops, then yes, it's absolutely different this time. You are comparing 2 self-imposed bubbles and a pandemic event to a reversal of globalization that's been driving markets for the last 30+ years.

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u/obscureobject2574 2d ago

But will the market recover and eventually make new ATH at some point in the next say 10-15 years even if he doesn’t flip flop? I think we both know the answer to this

2

u/drjd2020 2d ago

I really don't know, but I hope so. Will there still be a need for public markets at that point if all wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few?

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u/bangkokredpill 2d ago

Ya, I read this and think the same. People who try to time the market lose money always.

13

u/datasci1357 2d ago

Be wary bonds. There's a lot of government debt out there, and finances are looking shaky 

28

u/PraiseBogle 2d ago

If governments start defaulting on their debts we have much bigger problems. 

6

u/datasci1357 2d ago

It's not just the default risk though. Interest rates (especially at the longer end of the yield curve) are determined by inflationary expectations and supply/demand factors. As sovereigns issue more debt, someone needs to buy it. If that doesn't happen, then the cost to borrow (ie - interest rate) goes up, and your bond holdings take a haircut.
Who is going to buy US debt? There will be a rotation out of stocks & into US treasuries. But the US is rolling over a lot of debt in 2025, and foreign governments may be less inclined to buy. We'll see how it all unfolds, but to me, bonds are not the obvious choice given the unique nature of the present economic situation.

4

u/Dr-McLuvin 2d ago

Ya a massive global equity sell off and recession is not gonna result in run away inflation. Bonds are a great place to be right now.

3

u/HeadmasterPrimeMnstr 2d ago

Ya a massive global equity sell off and recession is not gonna result in run away inflation.

No, but a rapidly escalating global trade war will.

Powell and others are predicting a possible stagflationary economy.

2

u/datasci1357 2d ago

Isn't a tarrif war inflationary?? No one knows for sure where inflation is headed, but personally I prefer gold over bonds atm

1

u/Dr-McLuvin 2d ago

Tariffs are essentially creating artificial inflation for the goods that are tariffed. But that is just a one time price increase. The underlying inflation rate may not change.

After the tariffs, people have less buying power and buy less shit. People will lose their jobs. These are deflationary forces.

1

u/mouthful_quest 2d ago

It’ll be the fed eventually, but get ready for hyperinflation

1

u/First-Ad-7960 2d ago

What? With all that revenue from tariffs? /s

1

u/Dirks_Knee 2d ago

If the US defaults, USD won't be worth the paper it's printed on in the near term as we go through a period of hyperinflation.

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u/Any_Possibility492 2d ago

Yes, particularly US govt bonds

2

u/Welp_BackOnRedit23 1d ago

I moved to bonds at the start of February when the tariff word first left Trump's lips. I'm planning to move most of my money out of US backed bonds and into EU zone and Asian short term bonds after some research this weekend.

1

u/SaskatchewanSon69 2d ago

What bonds ??

1

u/Somnifor 2d ago

Also, a lot of value is being destroyed. That's what happens when there are more sellers than buyers