This isn’t a dip. It’s not a correction. It’s the slow, brutal unraveling of a debt-soaked fantasy we’ve been pretending was sustainable since 2008. The Fed is cornered—rates are high, inflation refuses to die, and there's no bailout coming this time. The only soft landing is for the billionaires with parachutes made of your 401(k).

Tech is imploding under the weight of hype and weak fundamentals. AI was a sugar high. Now we’re crashing. Banks are getting shaky. Commercial real estate is a time bomb. And consumers? They're maxed out, broke, and paying 29% on credit cards to buy gas and eggs.

And just when we needed stability, we get chaos: Trump’s back in the mix with unhinged tariffs, trade wars 2.0, and economic policies that look like they were scribbled on a napkin in a Denny’s at 3 a.m. Markets hate uncertainty—guess what? That’s all we’ve got now.

This isn’t a crash. It’s controlled demolition with nobody at the controls.

Sell, don’t look back, and maybe plant a garden. We had a good run.

Goodbye, and may whatever comes next be merciful.

I saw Trump just put out a tweet literally begging people to buy Tesla cars, an apparent act of desperation by Musk.

Musk now seems to be despised by the blue voters, who were the main purchasers of Tesla cars. What's more, the problem is even more acute in Europe.

In a very short period, Tesla has become the most uncool car on the market. I don't know how the company's stock will not continue to slide.

The Federal Reserve indicators are showing negative GDP for the first quarter, employers just added the fewest jobs since 2009, the market is increasingly volatile, consumer confidence is declining, and who knows what’s happening with tariffs anymore. All of this indicates a recession is coming. I know this sucks and there is a lot that is out of our control. But if you also think a recession is coming, what are you doing to prepare?

• Dotcom Crash 2000-2002 - 49%
• Global Financial Crisis 2007-2009 - 57%
• Flash Crash 2010 - 9% in a few minutes
• European Debt Crisis 2011 - 19%
• 2018 Correction - 20%
• Covid Crash - 33%
• 2022 Bear Market - 25%

So far from the peak, we're down about 11.5%. That's already a pretty significant amount. So what do you guys think?

Everyone is expecting more massive market gains because of trump. Big tech to get bigger, crypto to go to 1027374083727033 zillion, and pretty much indices to keep going vertical.

With everyone on one side of the boat does anyone think it’s possible that trump and his asset pumping / gas on the fire of animal spirits mentality will eventually cause a Chernobyl effect?? Could trump actually be the black swan that’s been right in front of our eyes all along?

His tariff policies maybe, idk. It’s a tough thought to even consider because trump will not tolerate a down market during his presidency. But at the same time we’re probably 15T-20T more in debt than when he started in 2016 and rates/inflation are still very high. It’s a much different back drop from 2016.

Trump has already made some sneaky comments preemptively blaming Biden for a crash, leads me to think maybe he’s somewhat concerned as well?

In reality, I know stocks will go up no matter what. Really doesn’t matter who the president is. Just interesting to think about the thought of trump, the savior of the market and the economy, actually being the cause for its implosion. 🤔

EDIT - and not long after I have posted this we now have the TRUMP meme coin launch…unreal times

So much fear in the markets and this time really feels different. All the Mag7 stocks are so hit by the tariffs our iPhones will probably cost $5,000 soon and as the world slows, people will use Amazon less, advertise less on FB/IG. No one is buying Tesla anymore. Who needs anymore AI chips, yet AI is decreasing Google searches.

I fear the world is realizing it all this weekend. Or is it just me that sky appears to be falling?

All stocks are tanking. Things have been overvalued for so long now. People making crazy gains.

New lows that we haven't seen in months. Tariffs n trump. We all have been warned about an economic crisis or a crash. Is it happening now? What are your thoughts?

Trump is gutting the government (see email he sent out this afternoon), including the parts that big businesses depend on. Here's on scenario I can foresee.

FDA no longer has staff to process NDA (new drug applications). NIST no longer has staff to produce the standard reference materials used in testing existing drugs. Big Pharma suffers. Production slows. Large chemical supply companies lose business. Petrochemical companies that provide feedstocks to the chemical firms suffer. The reduce production, which also reduces gas production. Gas prices go up.

I'm basing part of this on what happened in 2006, when clothing sales dropped, which meant less demand for acrylic, which meant less acetonitrile (a byproduct of acrylic production) was being produced, which meant big pharma didn't have acetonitrile for their HPLCs in their QA/QC labs, which slowed production.

Depending on how good analysts are at connecting dots, I wouldn't be surprised of there weren't a LOT of sell orders starting tomorrow morning.

When it comes to recent major market corrections, the largest drops have coincided with the loosening of interest rates. There have been market corrections outside of these periods, however, those events are significantly lesser in scope compared to the current analog situations of 2000, 2008, and 2020.

The Fed Funds rate was held at 6.5% from June 2000 to December 2000. It was 5.25 from July of 2006 to July of 2007. It was 2.4 between January of 2019 and July of 2019.

As the Fed began cutting rates, in each situation, the market began to decline. However, it was during these declines that illiquidity events took place, causing major panic, and subsequent cratering of markets.

The 1-point decline in interest rates from peak coincides with February 2001, December 2007, and November of 2019. Each respective recession officially began in March of 2001, December of 2007, and February 2020.

We hit 1-point below peak in January. There is a strong possibility we are ALREADY in recession, however, genius economists will only tell us this in a year or two.

In any case, each of these recessions coincided with feat contagion and general panic. Each of these events also bottomed after major catastrophes - in 2000 it was 9/11 and Enron, in 2008 it was Lehman + subprime crisis, in 2019 it was.... that horrible thing that we no longer talk about.

We are already in the fear stage of the market. 2000's panic was a general meltdown PRIOR to the crises that later unfolded. However, it was those crises that marked its bottom. 2008 and 2020's craterings occurred simultaneous to their crises although stocks did drift down prior to 2008 as well.

This begs the question: what is the crisis that may or may not occur with the cyclical correction that happens as the Fed cuts rates EVERY cycle? Will it be a true black swan no-one saw coming (9/11) or will it be something like Enron, Lehman, or COVID, where some DID see what was coming ahead of the general panic?

Could TSLA be the Enron of the 2025 bust? It is seeming more and more plausible with each passing day. In any case, the bottom of the market in each of the aforementioned cases occurred simultaneous to the Fed funds rate hitting 0 (or almost 0 in 2003). I expect shelter contribution to CPI to vanish in the next few reports + unemployment to rise significantly, this could give the Fed leeway to put rates back to 0 as soon as Q3-Q4 2025. In both 2009 and 2020 the Fed rate hit 0 when annualized CPI did the same (in March), and March of both years also coincided with their respective market bottoms.

TLDR; we are far from the bottom, which should occur when Fed Funds hit 0, buy when that happens but before that point, gird your loins.

I bought into Tesla quite a while back, but have been busy with life so haven't really kept up with my stocks.

My tesla stock isn't looking too good, and I'm wondering if Elon has now permanently tarnished Tesla's reputation and stock price.

Should I sell barely in the green, or should I wait for a rebound, then sell?

Seriously as wonderful as the next dumbest “AI innovation” is that doesn’t change the fact that tariffs are being enacted and implemented (seemingly on a whim and of questionable effect), jobless numbers almost certainly going up (especially from the firings Of government sector workers putting even more pressure on the tight job market) inflation looks headed back up, egg prices are now $8 a dozen and so many of the international supply chains conglomerates depend on are at serious risk… not to mention the orange man in the White House will probably target you with the feds if you do (or previously did) something he doesn’t like (akin to a mafia more than in a regulatory sense), and that’s all assuming we manage to avoid the ever present looming government shut down and debt ceiling

Now tell me what is there to be possibly bullish about? Maybe individual companies could be fine, but the economy looks headed towards doomsday. As much as people like to pretend the government doesn’t play much of a role in the stock market, at the current moment it very clearly does and it’s baffling why this isn’t an obvious consensus.

Trump and his press secretary are saying that the markets will go down because of the tariffs but that we should all be okay with this because this will somehow make us stronger at some point down the road. Despite this, plenty of folks are staying in the market. Why are so many people committed to a market when the president openly acknowledges he will continue with policies that will drive the markets down? I get the typical just hold theory but I am curious why that applies when we have a president planning to tank the market and actually bragging about it.

Am invested mainly in sp500 and a little bit of NVDA. NVDA revenue forecast is the best when I compare it to many popular tech/ai stocks, and investors price target looks acceptable even though it isn't the best. It is a large company, the PE ratio is a good sacrifice for growth. They have plenty of demand and that led to high margins, even if the concentrated buyers cut their buys, it still is in good position and the monopolist of top quality ai enabler.
I don't think this is a .com bubble but if it was that would be even better, because it might quadruple its PE ratio to 200 like cisco, if it is a bubble it is more probable that we are early.

I would like to know what stock or (anything other than stock) you guys have high conviction of positive results for the following years especially.

You get to hold 33.3% in each of the stocks and you have to hold for 10 years, no buying/selling or opportunities for trading. Which stocks are you picking?

For me, I would probably do MSFT as one pick since I see them expanding offerings in the future particularly if AI takes off but don't have a solid pick for the other two lol

Three weeks ago, I made this post. There, I made an argument why markets were overpriced due to valuations and the actions of the current administration.

I am still worried, and I'm wondering what are the counter-arguments.

1. Valuations are still high.
2. Trump admin and Musk are pushing austerity via spending cuts/mass layoffs.
3. Unstable tariff policy. Companies and consumers can't plan ahead. April 2 is coming. More chaos or clarity?
4. Soft data has been terrible.
5. High-frequency and corporate data (travel, retail) all point to a rapidly deteriorating consumer.

All of that makes me worried we are headed for a recession. Banks seem to agree and have upped their forecasts for one. Three months ago this would have been laughable.

Granted, this can all change on a tweet. The trump team can pivot, make tariffs more clear & targeted, and Doge can become more work and less theater. Then, we can get to beneficial tax policies & deregulation.

I'm concerned that's not gonna happen.

I'm concerned that Trump tariffs wont make companies move to the US & create jobs as Trump, Lutnick, and Bessent think they will. I'm concerned that people will get fired and become more poor, things will get more expensive, and Trump team will have nothing to show for it.

Now, to positioning & stocks:

I've been buying things that will benefit from protectionist policies, like INTC and X. I've also bought the dip on several big tech names & then sold them on Friday after the rally. Why? Take Nvidia, for example. Great company, but if chips aren't excluded from tariffs, then Nvidia's profit margins would get slashed. So would the valuation.

I'm sitting on a lump of cash & am waiting for more clarity, whether it's up or down.

What are your thoughts?

US ally Israel preemptively lowered Tarrifs on US to 0% yet was still hit with a tarrif by the US.

The question here is how much of this tariff situation is close the deficit and pay down debt and how much is to negotiate free trade.

If the US indicates and oversight or says we want a 90 day period to make up for the years of no tarrifs or something, this could spell good news for the markets as countries come to the table and negotiate tarrifs down leading to more free trade across the globe.

If the US does not relent and does not drop the tarrifs and gives no indication, it's clear that we are in protectionist austerity and that will not be great.

Given the trade deficits, the US has more leverage as the economies broad stand to lose more.

As we got closer to the tarrif announcement market rallied from the selloff and today looks to open down sharply. My guess, is we have some downward pressure but in a month or so, negotiation news of reduced Tarrifs country by country start to dominate the headlines and optimism ensues for a strong back half.

Edit: I should have added Canada to the list. On CNBC yesterday they said they would remove all tarrifs if US does the same

With Trump back in office and tariffs returning in full force, I’ve been analyzing what this means for U.S. equities. His latest moves—25% steel and aluminum tariffs, expanded levies on Chinese imports, and a tariff-heavy negotiation strategy—echo his first term but with even stronger measures.

While 2018-2020 gave us some clues, the market setup in 2025 is different:

• Higher inflation & rates: Tariffs add inflationary pressure, making the Fed’s job harder.

• China’s response will change: Unlike in 2018, China now dominates EV battery production and controls rare earth supply chains—this could hurt U.S. tech more than before.

• Supply chain resilience is mixed: Companies have talked about reshoring for years, but it’s still expensive and slow.

Given these factors, here’s how I’m positioning:

Likely Winners:

1. Steel & Aluminum (NUE, STLD, CLF) – Tariffs give them pricing power, though cost inflation is a risk.

2. Defense & Cybersecurity (LMT, PLTR, CRWD) – “America First” likely means higher defense budgets.

3. Regional Banks (JPM, BAC, GS) – If deregulation follows, these should gain.

4. Domestic Infrastructure (CAT, DE, OSK) – If tariffs hurt foreign suppliers, U.S. construction demand rises.

Likely Losers:

1. Tech Giants (AAPL, NVDA, QCOM, INTC) – Heavy China exposure = supply chain and revenue risks.

2. Consumer Goods (NKE, WMT, DG) – Imports get pricier, and passing costs to lower-income customers is tough.

3. Auto & Industrial (TSLA, GM, F, MMM) – Higher input costs + China retaliation = pain.

4. Agri Exporters (ADM, TSN, BG) – If China targets U.S. farm products again, these get hit.

What I’m watching:

📌 Will China retaliate with rare earth metal export bans? (Impacts TSLA, NVDA, QCOM)

📌 Do inflation expectations rise, pushing Fed policy hawkish? (Bad for rate-sensitive stocks)

📌 Does Trump backtrack on any tariffs? (A la 2019)

📌 Will domestic manufacturing gains outweigh supply chain disruptions?

I’d love to hear counterpoints. Which stocks do you think will outperform or underperform in Trump’s Trade War 2.0?

Some stocks are entering correction territory and are down nearly 10%, for example Nvidia was at 140 last week and is around 128 right now, which is roughly an 8% drop.

We’ve all heard to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy when others fearful etc… etc…

I think it’s tough to know how this will play out tbh. It could be the start of a more serious economic downturn based on some serious headwinds such as tariffs, poor consumer sentiment, and concerns about sticky inflation and what that may mean on the fed’s fund rate. Conversely, I wouldn’t be surprised if two months from now the secular bull run is still in full force and we see indexes hitting all time highs again.

What I do know, is that the share prices for many companies is down this week compared with last week, and personally I like to buy things when they are cheaper.

Is there anything you guys are eyeing to maybe buy right now or in the very near future?

If so, what is it?

Did anyone buy palantir stock at IPO/DPO, held it during its down years and is still holding? Did it ever cross your mind to sell the stock when it was trading at eight dollars per share? Are you happy that you did not go through with the sell when it was trading at eight dollars per share?

As stated in the title. Trump's tariffs come and go, but on Monday when they happen, I'm assuming it will, what do people think? Will it hit the markets as hard as unexpected changes to cost of living, or the larger than expected rate cut, etc? Interested to hear opinions on this.

So it has been a quarter since the US elections. Trump rally came, gave us 6000 in S&P, then gave us 6100, along with exactly four dips. So I compiled a list of Top-20 gainers and losers from the S&P 500 index.

https://imgur.com/a/q-gainers-losers-uD5SWRz

Noticed that Utilities, Solar, in general, lost out a lot, and some semiconductors that have fallen out of fashion, e.g. ON, MCHP and AMD.

On the winning side, the obvious star is PLTR, and some cyber security names like FTNT, CRWD. Tapestry and United Airlines are an odd surprise!

Which names do you think will

• hold on to or enter the winning list? Cyber security theme is the next, e.g. PANW?
• from the losers list, which ones could post a sharp comeback, because the market's been unfair to them? Utilities?

Odd trivia: there's an S&P 500 company (LW) that's just sells potato chips! 🍟

I'm still holding on to a fairly optimistic view that Trump will give in to economic pressure and reverse course at some point in the hopefully not too distant future.

Which stocks / ETFs are you guys watching for this case?

There's a few obvious choices with exposure to these tariffs, e.g. Nike and GAP with manufacturing in hard-hit Vietnam, Maersk as the global trade seismograph, Apple with its manufacturing base in China, Vietnam and India, any car manufacturer in case the 25% on autos get scrapped or reduced...

I think everyone should have a decent up-to-date watchlist at this point.

I’m not memeing or joking— I’m seriously wondering if now is a good time to short stocks. I know depending on one's personal situation and investment horizon, buying things like VOO and VTI and holding for a long time are the most stable investment. However, I’ve been seeing articles about hedge funds betting against the market, and with the new tariffs, it seems like the economy is going to take a hit. Are there specific sectors or stocks that look particularly vulnerable to being shorted? Or is the market still efficient enough that this information is already reflected in the stocks since we knew tariffs were imminent? Interested in everyone's thoughts.

What do you guys think about Nvidia’s stock? Soon, it will be below 110. The average cost of mine is 129. I wonder if it's worth holding it for the long term. The main concern is if the GPU demands will be the same after 3/4 years or more? I am ready to hold it, but the real question is if I hold it for 3/4 years or more, the price won't increase. In other words, does the decline of chip (GPU) demand decrease?

Not to make this post political, but obviously Tesla's reputation is in the gutter among liberals and environmentalists who are most likely to buy electric vehicles. We see boycotts in the USA and Europe, and Tesla is being pummeled by BYD in China.

I would assume Tesla has to have poor earnings in Q1 2025 in comparison to Q1 2024? It's tough to buy a new Tesla nowadays with so many protests outside Tesla dealerships.

At the same time, Tesla has been able to pull off decent profit margins off of selling carbon credits to traditional auto manufacturers ($2.76 billion in 2024). They will have even more to sell in 2025 which could offset a drop sales/ deliveries in their earnings report.

Do you think the stock will correct or tank on poor earnings? I still have a hard time seeing this because all the indicators right now show Tesla going down hill, and they are still sitting on a $700 bil+ valuation. Maybe it will take a series of bad earnings and shitty products to tank the stock?