r/theydidthemath • u/TheMaybeMan_ • 1d ago
Is this loss estimate and cost per family accurate? [Request]
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u/scotchtapeman357 1d ago
$30T / 350m = Just under $86k/person. Average US Household is 2.5 people. 86k x 2.5 = $214k/household.
However, that assumes stocks are owned uniformly - they aren't. 7 percent of stock market wealth is owned by the bottom 90 percent, with only 1 percent owned by the bottom 50 percent of households.
Source:
https://inequality.org/article/stock-ownership-concentration/
So, while this isn't helping anyone's retirement fund, it's impacting the top 1-2% of society far more than everyone else.
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u/MyInterThoughts 1d ago
Didn’t come to check the math. But came to say the 2nd paragraph. The stock plunge is a huge blow to the billionaires.
Once the prices of everything US consumers buy go up the households will feel the pain. I just hope it isn’t 300,000 dollars a year.
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u/delux561 1d ago
Na, it's a huge blow to the millionaires. Billionaires are buying the dip like covid and will be trippling their worth by 2028.
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u/gingerbread_man123 17h ago
Billionaires can afford the loss more. Most of their wealth is locked into their own companies anyhow and isn't easy to cash out - theoretical money. Mostly they realise that money by borrowing against the stock as collateral rather than selling it off.
The real people hit are those regular people near retirement. 401ks that have tanked and won't have a decade or two to regain value before they need to be called on. Or people needing to delay retirement in order for their savings to recover enough to support them.
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u/phigene 19h ago
Hmm. Doubtful since they are the ones moving the needle in the first place. You don't get to billionaire status without being able to survive a bear market.
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u/scotchtapeman357 19h ago
You don't get to stay billionaire status without being able to survive a beat market
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u/Beachhouse15 1d ago
Yes, but the ultrawealthy can bear the pain to get the tax cuts and buy everybody's loss at a discount.
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u/scotchtapeman357 1d ago
You only lock in a stock market loss if you sell. Right now would be a terrible time to sell.
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u/KougatCylinder5_ 6h ago
Can be forced to sell if going bankrupt is the the only other option
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u/scotchtapeman357 4h ago
Retirement accounts are shielded from bankruptcy - you should never sell low in retirement accounts, which is where the majority of the populations investments are
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u/LanceWindmil 1d ago
That's about right assuming the 30 trillion is the wealth lost in US companies.
30 trillion is almost certainly not right though. As of last month global market cap was estimated at 124 trillion. And while the US is almost half of that, even with 10% loss in the s&p i don't see that adding up.
We're much more likely at around 6 trillion lost in the US market, which would only be.... 70k per household of 4 (population ~340 million).
Obviously this is a good example of the wealth disparity as the average person definitely hasn't lost this much.
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u/hysys_whisperer 1d ago
We are at almost 20% on the S&P. Even more on the Russell 2000.
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u/LanceWindmil 1d ago
From peak or the last two days?
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u/Ok_Animal_2709 1d ago
18% from peak this year
13.73% YTD
Loses largely since inauguration
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u/LanceWindmil 1d ago
Yeah ok that's what i thought. My post was just on the last 2 days since "liberation"
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u/Ok_Animal_2709 1d ago
Based on the post content, you are correct, about 10% due to his speech. But his policies have been hurting us since inauguration day
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u/hysys_whisperer 22h ago
From the peak, before he started talking tariffs. This is simply a continuation of his previous rhetoric on the topic.
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u/xFblthpx 1d ago
Yeah, divide the total loss over all families as though all families have equal stake in the market. Definitely not a biased metric.
There are so many valid criticisms of the tariffs, yet people always jump to the worst possible ones.
How are Redditors not aware of the cognitive dissonance of equating stock market loss with family savings loss and then immediately cheering when billionaires lose a bunch of money?
Which one is it?
There are so many better arguments to make against the tariffs, like how it’s affecting retirement accounts, or how it will cause cost increases for typical consumer goods. But you can’t simultaneously cheer that the rich lost a bunch of money, and then attribute that loss to families as well.
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u/xfilesvault 1d ago
US federal national debt is $36 trillion. So... we lost almost enough wealth to pay off the entire debt accrued by the US federal government in its entire history?
And we got nothing for it.
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u/SoylentRox 1✓ 23h ago edited 23h ago
Note that "loss" is conditional on the outcome.
If the Trump admin rethinks the tariffs or does them a different way? (actual reciprocal tariffs, where specific laws or processes blocking American imports, country by country, are estimated to decide the tariffs, and some formula is used to determine the other country's actual tariff relative to the USA's actual exports (for example if the other country had a 100% tariff on red string, but the USA doesn't produce any string, it wouldn't factor in))
Then the market value would be inherently the same as it was pre-announcement. The market prices would return to what they were before, this is a great opportunity to buy.
If Trump goes through with these specific poorly thought out tariffs? Oh we fucked. In fact, the market drop isn't nearly enough. The market is "pricing in" Trump changing his mind, that's why it's only down 10%. WIth these specific tariffs, as is, its probably a 100-200% drop, at least. These are essentially an end to most trade with the USA and thus most revenue to the entire US economy.
The rumor is Trump demanded the tariff numbers, due Monday, and this is what his staff could scrape together by the deadline. Or, you could say, the admin didn't r/dothemath .
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u/Lilpu55yberekt69 18h ago
I have no idea what math is going into his estimate of $30 trillion in damages, but no method I can think of would be anywhere even close to that.
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u/Sudden_Detective7080 1d ago
Donald Trump is the human version of spoiled meat rotting in the sun…bloating, leaking, attracting flies that worship him as if the stench is strength. He is filth made flesh. A sociopathic goblin in a red tie who clawed his way into power not by earning respect, but by vomiting poison into the mouths of the already broken. FUCK tRUMP!
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u/Logical_Strike_1520 1d ago
Comments like this make me glad he’s POTUS ngl. Straight up broke your brain lmao
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u/unimorpheus 1d ago
Give me a break, one minute your crying about the billionaires power and control next your complaining about their market losses. 300K per family of four? What a false equivalency.
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u/Matt_Foley_Motivates 1d ago
Huh? My 401k got destroyed and the math fits. Everyone in my family suffered the same hit to theirs or more
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u/RajaRajaOne 21h ago
You aren't retiring tomorrow I assume.
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u/Matt_Foley_Motivates 20h ago
How tf does that matter to your original statement?
More excuses…
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u/RajaRajaOne 20h ago
Not the same guy. Impartial observer just fanning the flames. Don't mind me. Lol.
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