Fed only saw cumulative inflation ticking up .3 percent this year on PCE from 2.5 to 2.8 percent. Markets think they’ll try and save jobs as long as it doesn’t get out of control.
Old data? It’s current data. You’re taking future projection from a company we’re currently putting 20% tariffs on. Can’t see the conflict here 🥱
Companies are trying to bring manufacturing to the US, so there will be plenty of jobs (just not well paying).
So we will have low unemployment but way worse utilization of manpower. We will see people with specialized degrees have to start working labor in a drone factory.
Quality of life goes down hard and people can’t afford their loans… but they will not be unemployed.
High employment does not necessarily mean good usage of resources.
It will make the Fed position very hard, economy in the shitter, inflation rising, low unemployment… all their tools will be useless.
They are no doubt in a tough spot, we should start to see layoffs however as companies begin to digest & react to all of this. Consumers are going to pull way back and only buy essentials.
I think companies will try and go lean and just rely on the hoards of cash they have stockpiled until we can get a new president potentially.
I don't know ultimately how much manufacturing is going to be relocated, CEO's on the record as very reluctant to make any concrete plans with Trump because he could change his mind on a whim.
There will be hiring freezes and layoffs coming soon.
The country may have made a huge mistake re-electing him.
It's pretty unlikely companies will actually start bringing manufacturing to the US, unless there is a guarantee these tarriffs will last even after Trump's term. Buildig a new factory and getting it completely set up isn't a month process, and it's incredibly fucking expensive.
Factories aren't in the US right now because it's cheaper elsewhere. If the tarriffs go away, it'll again be cheaper to manufacture elsewhere. The companies that invested in new US factories are then left holding the bag, since their competitor's product will be cheaper (since manufacturing in other countries is cheaper).
If the genuine desire is to increase manufacturing in the US, you can indeed use tarriffs, but companies have to be aware of this beforehand, and have to be able to trust that these tarriffs will last a long enough time that the building of a new factory is cost-effective. Regardless of political affiliation, Trump has caused a lot of economical unrest, which makes companies a lot more hesitant and unwilling to take the risk.
What is more important for the Fed, inflation or stock prices?
Is this even a serious question?
Stock price is more important to the fed lol. That’s why the best advice you can give anyone is to invest in the stock market. Rich people will let any other negative thing happen long before they would let the market tank.
82
u/spookyswagg 22h ago
Inflation is predicted to rise to 4% this year and >4% next year
Without accounting for retaliatory tariffs or potential rate cuts.
Why would Jpow go and make that worse by lowering rates? Just to save the stock market?
What is more important for the Fed, inflation or stock prices?