Yeah 3-4 rate cuts seems accurate. Will tariffs cause inflation? Yes. Will growth decline (perhaps a lot), fuck ya. Unemployment higher? Certainly.
However, this is a price / inflation shock rather than a systemic underlying thing (like covid recovery) was. If anything it’ll reduce demand, reduce earnings, and slow down growth, but I can’t see elevated inflation rates longer than 3 maybe 4 months (time for tariffs to work into the economy).
That’s also assuming that there’s no reversal on tariffs, which I think there will be some deals made.
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u/mepahl57 22h ago
The bond market makes pretty accurate predictions.