27k -> $765k BABA $125p 4/4

[u/DegenOptionGuy]

[u/DegenOptionGuy]

Once I seen the new China tariffs I had a feeling china was gonna clap back quick. Was easy play since baba was pretty much green yesterday made no sense in such an ugly tape.

[u/Prestigious_Chard_90 → u/DegenOptionGuy]

Appreciate the answer. I need to get better at connecting the dots like that off news.

[u/BatteryAcid420_ → u/Prestigious_Chard_90]

This is rare though. Usually if you see an opportunity that‘s to good to be true there are factors priced in that you‘re not considering. The markets are rarely ever blatantly wrong. At the very least a lot of volatility should be priced into them so you need to be more than just correct with your timing and direction, you also need to hit it far enough.

OP sais „clap back quick“. Sunday would still be quick but OPs option would‘ve been expired for days. So either the guy has no clue what he‘s doing and just got lucky or he was just looking for a small gain and got lucky.

Remember he has to be right, and the stock has to move in his direction more than what‘s priced into the option. All in a day or this is a complete write-off.

I was thinking it‘s a good trade but his explanation makes me reconsider, now I think this is regarded.

[u/DegenOptionGuy → u/BatteryAcid420_]

China had a holiday on Friday their markets were closed. When Thursday they said they would respond back. I also figured they’d fuck us since our markets are open Friday but there’s are closed. Waiting till Sunday fucks them and us.

[u/BatteryAcid420_ → u/DegenOptionGuy]

I‘m proud of you, as long as you could‘ve stomached losing that much and you intentionally went in for absurd risk then I happily reconsider and think of this as a good bet again lmao

[u/DegenOptionGuy → u/BatteryAcid420_]

Thank you BatteryAcid420_, that means a lot coming from you

[u/Prestigious_Chard_90 → u/BatteryAcid420_]

That's why I asked. Seems like the news came out when the option market was closed. Like, had China retaliated with their own tariffs on Monday, he's SOL.

[u/United-Prompt1393 → u/DegenOptionGuy]

Why did market open at 8:39?!

[u/DegenOptionGuy → u/United-Prompt1393]

I was in CST and for some reason options on BABA didn’t start pricing until like 10 mins after market open

[u/United-Prompt1393 → u/DegenOptionGuy]

Amazing trade, i love you

[u/Revolution4u → u/DegenOptionGuy]

That was actually the classic robinhood fuck you where they "lag" and dont update until 10 min after open on a high vol day.

I really suspect they are frontrunning their users trades and doing all kind of other no no's regularly.

[u/fart-to-me-in-french → u/United-Prompt1393]

Reddit discovers time zones and countries outside US exist

[u/United-Prompt1393 → u/fart-to-me-in-french]

Which time zone is 51 mins behind EST?

[u/ItsOkILoveYouMYbb → u/DegenOptionGuy]

Well done spotting it and listening to that voice saying "this ain't right"

[u/Waldotto → u/DegenOptionGuy]

Why does China's retaliation result in a put on Baba? Can you explain the mechanism behind that?

[u/DegenOptionGuy → u/Waldotto]

Dude your like way to far to help with questions like that

[u/learnthaimoderator → u/DegenOptionGuy]

brutal lol

[u/Same-Fox9304 → u/learnthaimoderator]

Not brutal at all. It's a valid question. Why would baba fall on the news of China tariffing US products?

[u/learnthaimoderator → u/Same-Fox9304]

Never said it wasn't a valid question. Just a brutal response.

1. Tariffs on US products increase prices in China (yes the US does export to China).
2. China's retaliation could be met with further tariff increases by the United States.

[u/bigweeduk → u/learnthaimoderator]

So the assumption is that BABA may be affected by a potential further tariff on China exports to USA? To be fair, it doesn't make a huge amount of sense.

Unless the original USA tariff on China was already priced into the options price, but not the China response/subsequent likely USA response

[u/learnthaimoderator → u/bigweeduk]

It's not only that. The tariff placed by China on US goods will affect $160 billion of imports. That means more belt-tightening for Chinese consumers which are the main revenue stream of BABA.

BABA makes 46% of it's revenue domestically.

[u/ChampagneWastedPanda → u/learnthaimoderator]

Truth

[u/Waldotto → u/DegenOptionGuy]

Cheers pal, enjoy the winnings though

: ^ )

[u/wa_2050 → u/Waldotto]

Highly Regarded Welcome Home!

[u/falooda1 → u/Waldotto]

Use chatgpt my friend

[u/Same-Fox9304 → u/DegenOptionGuy]

How? It's a valid question

Why should baba be hit hard by tariffs on US products?

[u/Same-Fox9304 → u/[deleted]]

You definitely don't appear to

[u/-medicalthrowaway- → u/Same-Fox9304]

I thought you were referring to products coming into the US

The anomaly is that BABA didn’t drop yesterday. I can only imagine what finally made it drop AH yesterday was the realization that a trade war has commenced

[u/Same-Fox9304 → u/-medicalthrowaway-]

Yea that's it. But the way OP makes it sound is false. He basically just got lucky although a good bet to place.

[u/DegenOptionGuy → u/-medicalthrowaway-]

Bingo

[u/primalmarket → u/Waldotto]

Baba is the biggest exporter of Chinese crap to the US. Tarrifs will hit and cause a huge decline in baba sales from the US

[u/Routine_Airline4215 → u/primalmarket]

Why did it not take a hit from US tariffs then? It took chinese tariffs to go down. makes no sense.

[u/conoremc → u/Routine_Airline4215]

Could make the argument it meant the tariffs on China were going nowhere. Similar to how we're now wait and see with the EU for mid-April as to whether they clap back. Orange man's ego likely wouldn't let it go if they do. Not sure what stock would be as easy a play as baba in that case

[u/AnyFaithlessness7991 → u/[deleted]]

No.. US tariff is for products coming INTO the USA