r/Economics • u/Majano57 • 2d ago
Editorial ‘This Could Get Much Uglier’: The Fatal Flaw in Trump’s Trade War
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-manufacturing-confusion-00267945426
u/uniklyqualifd 2d ago
Americans will be afraid to spend. Jobs will be lost. Investing in a factory woutbe foolhardy.
All Americans can hope for is that the Republicans will blink. They will impeach and remove the source of the Depression and his sidekick.
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u/flossypants 2d ago
Congress doesn't have to impeach. They could merely pass legislation (overcoming Trump's veto) that overturns the tariffs. The Trade Review Act of 2025 was recently introduced in the Senate and has less sanguine prospects in the House.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/03/senators-bipartisan-bill-trump-tariffs
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u/BadmiralHarryKim 2d ago
Consider how much misery it took for the Republicans to back down in Kansas and then multiply it by at least an order of magnitude.
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u/flossypants 2d ago edited 1d ago
I'm not saying it's likely. It's just a lower bar than impeachment, which the previous poster suggested
EDIT: The above is technically incorrect. Based purely on voting thresholds, impeachment and conviction represent a slightly lower bar than overriding a presidential veto:
Impeachment & Conviction:
Impeachment in the House: Simple majority (50% + 1).
Conviction in the Senate: Two-thirds majority (67%).
Overriding a Veto:
Both House and Senate: Two-thirds majority (67%) in each chamber.
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u/BadmiralHarryKim 2d ago
Yeah, I don't think there's any realistic chance of impeachment. If Trump has to go they'll try to convince him to resign for the good of the party first. Whether he goes or has a Night of the Long Knives depends on how much support he can muster.
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u/Bobby_Marks3 2d ago
The GOP can't do that. They'd sooner impeach Trump. To tie his hands but leave him in power is to watch him "meddlesome preist" his own party leadership for the next three years. But they can't do that either because he could do it from the sidelines, or just send DOGE in front of the J6ers to force Congress to let them in to wherever Congress is hiding.
The GOP's shot to restrain Trump in any capacity came and went the last time he was in office. Trump didn't win 2024 with a national mandate, but he did win with a GOP mandate. They will not stop him until they are more afraid of what happens to them if they don't. And even then, they do everything possible to avoid admitting it openly (see: Nixon being told to resign so the GOP didn't have to convict him).
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u/RddtIsPropAganda 2d ago
They don't need to pass any legislation. Only Congress can impose tariffs to begin with. Republicans are allowing Trump to do that. They could just come out today and tell Donny to stuff it and that would be the end of it.
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u/flossypants 2d ago
This bill is Congress telling Trump something along those lines.
Separately, a conservative group is suing the Trump Administration, challenging the validity of his proclaiming a national emergency, which allowed Trump to issue tariffs. It's not for all tariffs, but if they win, similar approaches may succeed for other countries' tariffs.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-administration-sued-over-chinese-import-tariffs-2025-04-03
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u/wufiavelli 1d ago
Really wish places would go over the legal procedures with this. Cause right now no is covering this aspect. I get congress can delegate powers through a law under certain conditions but feel they should be able to take back this power at any time and a trump veto should have no say.
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u/RddtIsPropAganda 1d ago
Republicans don't want to. It is as simple as that. That's why people should not have voted for GOP.
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u/LastNightOsiris 1d ago
The president can impose tariffs under an emergency declaration, which Trump has invoked. Congress has the power to rescind the declaration through legislation. If the president vetoed that legislation, then it would require a 2/3 majority to override his veto.
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u/RddtIsPropAganda 1d ago
Which in itself is unconstitutional since emergencies are only typically called during acts of war or natural disasters but conservatives love breaking the law and taking liberties with their reinterpretion on everything just like the Bible. no different from a mob boss
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u/Sleww 2d ago
Would it be enough to overturn the tariffs? I think this situation could only be fixed with improved diplomatic relations. That doesn't seem like it's going to happen with this PIC
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u/flossypants 2d ago
Suggest read the article. The proposed bill causes tariffs to lapse after 60 days unless Congress "validates" them. Enough Republicans are in districts affected by tariffs that they may buck Trump to oppose such validation...but very unclear at this point what would happen.
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u/Dolnikan 2d ago
Either Trump will then ignore it or launch brand new tariffs after those sixty days.
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u/flossypants 1d ago
If Trump instructs U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) of the Department of Homeland Security to collect tariffs without legal authority, the Judiciary can issue injunctions and even have Marshalls civil arrest CBP agents until they comply with injunctions.
The Judiciary can determine if new tariffs are a continuation of previous tariffs and find them unlawful.
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u/ReapingKing 1d ago
Then the judge will ask the court bailiff to enforce their judgement, or are you imagining a more "Judge Dread" sort of situation?
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u/flossypants 1d ago
I'm just reporting what I've read--courts do have an enforcement capability independent from the DOJ. I'm not aware of instances where it is used against the Executive.
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u/GATORGAR56k 2d ago
Disclaimer: didn't read the article but read about this elsewhere
Something the previous comment left out is they can also vote to get rid of tariffs before the 60 days. The 60 day thing is only if Congress doesn't immediately kill the tariffs
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u/IceInternationally 2d ago
They could do that but it won’t restore confidence. Elect a clown get a circus
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u/ry_mich 2d ago
Couldn’t Trump just veto the legislation?
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u/flossypants 1d ago
I wrote, "They could merely pass legislation (overcoming Trump's veto) that overturns the tariffs." Congress can overcome a presidential veto by each house voting with a supermajority (2/3).
I retract what I earlier wrote that overcoming a veto is politically lower bar than impeachment (& conviction). Politically, impeachment and conviction represent a slightly lower bar than overriding a presidential veto, based purely on voting thresholds:
Impeachment & Conviction:
Impeachment in the House: Simple majority (50% + 1).
Conviction in the Senate: Two-thirds majority (67%).
Overriding a Veto:
Both House and Senate: Two-thirds majority (67%) in each chamber.
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u/wufiavelli 1d ago
I get that they can delegate powers, but how can a law override the constitution. I feel they should be able to recall the power anytime and trump should have no say in the matter.
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u/flossypants 1d ago
Congress can already override tariffs at any point but Republicans are unwilling to do so. The proposed bill causes tariffs to automatically lapse if not validated by Congress within 60 days. The thinking is that Congressional Republicans are biased towards inaction so the proposed bill is more likely to lead to tariffs being retracted.
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u/wufiavelli 1d ago
Thanks, Mind if I ask barriers. Is it a simple majority, require leadership to bring it to the floor.
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u/flossypants 1d ago
Rules for bringing a bill to a vote can be changed by the majority party. I'm not familiar with the current details.
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u/Koss424 1d ago
Trade partners will still move on. The damage is done at this point until Trump is gone.
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u/flossypants 1d ago
No argument, but that's a separate issue
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u/Koss424 1d ago
not really. Congress can remove the the tariffs, but it won't fix the economy at this point. Sure, companies like Apple and GM don't have to scramble to find new manufacturing locations. But American products now have a stink to them. I go out of my my to spend more on a product not made in the USA.
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u/Nathalie2020 1d ago
Is this for real? Why isn’t it on all the news networks, including those who oppose Donny??
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u/ThrowAwayGarbage82 2d ago
Raskin said earlier today they're working on it in the house but it's 218R/215D right now. They need 2 more defectors.
Senate needs a much higher number though and as we know that is absolutely DOA. Even reclaiming tariff power only got 4 R's to flip in the senate. Literally their own rightful power, not even anything remotely controversial.
He won't be removed. It would just be more performative nonsense.
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u/Bobby_Marks3 2d ago
They'd need a veto-proof majority. That will definitely not happen. They'd sooner remove him from office, which only requires 2/3s support in the Senate.
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u/ThrowAwayGarbage82 2d ago
That's what i meant. Raskin said they're working on impeachment in the house but need two R's to flip, then send it to the senate.
We are not going to have that support in the senate. Even reclaiming their own tariff power only got 4 R's onboard in the senate and it passed on a razor thin margin.
It might barely make it through the house but the senate is not going to remove him.
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u/Bobby_Marks3 2d ago
So I don't think we are there yet, but do keep in mind:
The GOP absolutely won't have anywhere near the votes for impeachment until they do. They aren't going to dangle it or drag it out, if/when they decide to do it it will happen on a Saturday night at 1:00am or something, get through the House and the Senate in 20 minutes, and then be over.
We will never really know how many votes they are short, because it's not like we will see it tested until the GOP has the votes to finish it.
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u/ThrowAwayGarbage82 2d ago
Johnson could try to derail a vote in the house, he's been absolutely loyal to trump. I just don't trust that we'll be able to remove him the way the law outlines.
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u/devliegende 2d ago
Johnson's district is heavy into fracking. His loyalty may change if the oil price went low enough and the job losses mounted.
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u/imsoulrebel1 2d ago
I was going to buy 2 cars, thinking I'm going to wait until next administration.
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u/ilikedevo 2d ago
I’ve been thinking part of Trumps panic is that with the popularity of electric cars there will be tons of foreign competitive that can produce vehicles very cheaply.
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u/LittleMsSavoirFaire 2d ago
McConnell threw his distillery constituents a bone by supporting a bill that is highly unlikely to get past the House, but it's unclear if anyone will be the first to admit defeat.
Plus, it's even harder to figure out what they would do instead. They've been so busy kissing up and towing the party line that they don't have a backup play. How are they going to sell this to MAGA? "Your little tin god was a false idol all along, but you can trust us to fix it."
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u/ColdEvenKeeled 2d ago
Investing in a factory would be foolhardy.
Precisely. Shareholders don't want to support a company while it completely retools in a new factory on expensive land with expensive workers with much less volume of goods to transport to major ports. This will take years, and, as per Fordist means (i.e. when America was Great!), the American workers need to win in this, affording the goods, through high wages. Shareholders don't want to pay high wages! They want dividends.
All this reshoring was slowly happening anyways without all the drama. More could happen through incentives and lessening some restrictions. More could happen by closing tax loopholes as big as Lake Erie on offshore profits. That's just an obvious start.
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u/Pitiful-Recover-3747 2d ago
Well we are actively and aggressively deporting everyone that would build and work in said factory, so yeah seems bad timing….
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u/Konukaame 2d ago
For all the detail in Trump’s Wednesday announcement, his endgame is still shrouded in confusion. That’s lethal for long-term investment, making confident planning all but impossible.
The fatal flaw is that they have no idea what they're doing or why, and despite all the "experts" trying to read the tea leaves for a coherent plan, no such plan exists.
There is no endgame, no midgame, no early game. Just the confidence of a pigeon walking around a chessboard before pooping on it and flying away.
And for that matter, what "all the detail"? The launch and explanations were as incomprehensible as everything that came before and after.
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u/Little-Sky-2999 2d ago
The new theory on the block is that Trump is starving Congress of the money it can spend, from IRS, taxation, and increasing the money that can be spent by the Executive, from tariffs, crypto, sovereign wealth fund, etc.
It's all about concentration of power, while isolating the American population from the rest of the world.
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u/spinningcolours 2d ago
The newest Hermit Kingdom on the block.
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u/turbo_dude 2d ago
You used to have a lot now you’ve got a littler
And it’s all thanks to the balding orange h_tler
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u/foomp 1d ago
You lack the courage to spell out your own insult man. Trump is like Hitler, just write it out. No one here will be offended.
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u/turbo_dude 1d ago
you'd be amazed how many comments and posts get (shadow) banned because of certain words
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u/Nathalie2020 1d ago
If you’re one whose likely to travel in or out of the US, the border guards might check your phone and do some sort of word search to look for reasons to detain you.
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u/foomp 23h ago
Well I cross the can/us border frequently. Neither side can compel you to unlock your devices -- I've never been asked to.
Even if the phone was unlocked I also have my social apps biometric locked as well.
Thirdly, everyone should use ReDact or similar tools on social posts every so often. I overwrite my Reddit comments about every four/five months. Just scroll back in my history to see.
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u/XenopusRex 3h ago
The US can definitely ask you to unlock your phone at the border. If you are not a US citizen and you refuse, you are denied entry (and can be indefinitely detained). If you are a US citizen, you can be “delayed” and your phone can be detained and analyzed, or even copied. “Casual searches” where an officer reads your texts and social media and photos does not require any suspicion (let alone a warrant).
Biometric “passwords” are less constitutionally protected in the US. If they want, they can force you to unlock with a warrant.
It is indeed true that phone searches are rare, but they are definitely allowed to a degree most US citizens would find overly intrusive. Current rules have a carveout for national security, they could definitely be more aggressive about these searches within the current laws if they wanted to.
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u/Marathon2021 2d ago
I'm not sure that flies. We already had tarriffs in place prior to this administration. The revenue from those (as well as income taxes, fees, licenses, etc.) was already Congress' to spend and still is.
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u/kyle_irl 2d ago
And another that echoes your second point: that it's not an economic policy, but a political one. This is bringing the private sector to heel like he did to Columbia, Brown, and Harvard, and the Smithsonian, national museums, libraries and archives. Rubio has been spreading the word to the EU that the administration wants European companies to comply with the Trump DEI purge. Throw the entire world economy into a tailspin to have it pledge fealty to Trump.
So yea, it's all about power.
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u/virrk 2d ago
Or it's accelerationist who have enough influence to get some of what they want. He's the useful idiot for them.
Crashing the world economy gets them what they want. Tear everything down because it is holeless to fix and start from scratch. The want to make their own world order.
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u/Little-Sky-2999 1d ago
Possibly. But accelerationists that want to destroy the system for what reason, and in favor of which vision?
This theory for me is as unlikely as the others, but if you put rich poweful reactionary white nationalists in charge, and we know Musk is one, that wanted to destroy a capitalistic system thats canibalizing its own population...
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u/virrk 1d ago
Look up accelerationist, it isn't comforting. They think the current system is hopeless and needs to completely reset. The best option is to accelerate the collapse of as much as they can to put a completely new system up in it's place. They see all the Christian nationalists a as means to that end, not because they support that group in any other way. I suspect that someone in that group, which a bunch of tech billionaires are part of, has gotten enough influence on Trump to get that started. Firing everyone from federal government, collapsing the support structures of government, and collapsing the US economy heads in that direction. Still might not succeed, I sure hope not.
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u/Little-Sky-2999 1d ago
I mean, the current system do be hopeless. Climate going to shit while populations are collapsing, and the solutions are starring at us in the face but we lack the will.
How more hopeless can you get?
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u/OldMastodon5363 2d ago
That’s an interesting theory. Can’t imagine Trump himself thought it up though.
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u/TryptaMagiciaN 2d ago
Disagree. Looks like exactly what Russia and Israel were wanting from a US administration.
There are plenty of plans. They just arent being plotted by US politicians. Why would the ruling class explain their intent to the servants? That's all these politicians are. Loyal pets of the wealthy. That's all many have ever been.
Why did people expect anything different? Where were they getting their information? Do people not study history as well as use several different national media outlets along with independent footage from events to form an idea of the world around them? /s
This has been a long term plan in the making. Decades of policy targetting education and the social structures protecting at risk americans like the elderly. Every aspect of US politics is about extracting wealth from the workers to give more and more each year to those who already have plenty. This is simply where that ends. Both parties have worked hand in hand to get us here. And it only took a small little portion of the voting pool to make it happen. And now, because both parties are in some actual danger of having voters abandon them, they want to work together or pretend there is something they can do to "fix" this. We should not let near anyone of government from theblast 50 yrs be involved in fixing this mess. We should be adamant that we are done supporting these corporate offices that claim to represent the average dude in anyway whatsoever.
And more than any of that. We should never support parties that back and fund the genocide of any peoples. That fund ethnic cleansing of any people. We should not support any government that can only exercise authority under the threat of a gun. We need to find our shame again. We have none. People spend their entire lives sorting through our garbage for what little of value can be found and we act like the world is made better for it. I want to be a country that sets an example that can be proud. But we need our shame first. Then we need to get to work.
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u/kyle_irl 2d ago
Every aspect of US politics is about extracting wealth from the workers to give more and more each year to those who already have plenty. This is simply where that ends.
Au contraraire my friend, this is where American avarice is unmasked and codified. It's always been there. It's why we supported brutal authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and Latin America while projecting the image of freedom and democracy. Now, we're just continuing the greedy capitalism part without the cloak of idealism.
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u/rxroids101 2d ago
This comment is offensive to pigeons given that even a pigeon would have more economic sense than our current administration.
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u/SurinamPam 2d ago
Look at who is in the cabinet. Do they seem like the kind of people to consult experienced experts and develop optimized response plans?
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u/Welp_BackOnRedit23 2d ago
So one day Trump woke up and said "What if we did Brexit, but for EVERYBODY"... because... Brexit went so well? There isn't a plan. There isn't event concepts of a plan.
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u/bnh1978 1d ago
It's not a trade war. It's a totalitarian power grab.
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u/SatoshiReport 1d ago
This clarifies things, usually the simplest explanation makes the most sense. Thanks for posting.
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u/Free-Competition-241 1d ago
No….this is like political fan fiction
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u/bnh1978 1d ago
Then what else makes sense?
Trump dumb. No other explanation?
Or
Trump super genius. No other explanation?
More plausible
Trump following totalitarian game plain laid out for him for the past 4 years by all his handlers and really he is just autopenning everything they put in front of him. He is just content to play golf, read the teleprompter and cause general mayhem while being the big cheese and not really needing to do any work while everyone else carves up the country.
Nah. That doesn't mesh at all with what's been going on.
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u/Free-Competition-241 1d ago
I know that, as humans, we want to buy into conspiracy theories because it gives us the illusion of control. And clarity. It’s a chaotic situation - I get it.
Remember the Reciprocal Act of 2019? Or the attempt. Well it’s back again.
It’s the same play that it’s always been, amped up to 11.
Or maybe there’s Helium-3 on the moon and we need to mine it before other countries. So bring Manufacturing back!
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u/mytthew1 1d ago
Trump wants individual countries and businesses to come begging for tariff relief. Who is going to build a factory when tariffs could be dropped by someone else flattering Trumps ego or lining his pocket? Seems to me donating to a Trump charity would be a lot cheaper.
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u/FlummoxedXer 1d ago
Even if new factories actually do get built in the U.S. they’ll be mostly automated.
Sure you’ll need some actual humans to monitor and maintain the machinery or bots but the idea there’s this groundswell of good-paying reliable factory jobs like in the good ol’ days ever coming back is out of touch with the reality of how fast tech is advancing.
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u/stormy2587 2d ago
I think Trump just enjoys chaos and is comfortable navigating chaotic situations to his benefit. He is bad at doing boring things that help everyone involved. He is good at creating chaos and helping himself.
This is what we saw with the firing of government workers last month and the month before. He’d fire people with vital jobs without realizing it and then try to get them back.
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