r/Economics • u/joe4942 • 1d ago
News Trump administration to markets: Don't expect a rescue
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/06/trump-tariffs-stock-market1.7k
u/Current_Tea6984 1d ago
- "Americans who want to retire right now, Americans who have put away for years in their savings accounts, I - I think they don't look at the day-to-day fluctuations of what's happening," Bessent said.
This is right up there with Lutnik saying seniors wouldn't mind if they didn't get their social security payments
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u/2gutter67 1d ago
Well none of these things would bother them, so why would it bother anyone else right? Seems to be the logic. And most MAGA people I run into all can't wait to tell me how this will all be fine. They can't explain how, or when, but they sure say it. And if I try to tell them anything about the numbers or the posibility of failure, I get grumpy looks and a lot of "that can't happen." Idk what to do anymore.
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u/Sethmeisterg 1d ago
That's why I think we will have to hit rock bottom before these idiots realize they've been scammed.
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u/icenoid 1d ago
Even rock bottom won't convince a lot of these fools. They will believe Trump's rhetoric that better times are just around the corner. He is already saying that manufacturing will take 2 years to come back. So those fools will wait for 2 years, by then, he will move the bar. the Democrats may win the House in the midterms then he will just blame them for getting in the way, or he will blame the courts, or some other bullshit that the rubes will eat up.
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u/onedoesnotjust 1d ago
I think the large elephant in the room, that no one is addressing seriously, is bots on social media. Bots are completly out of control now, not just on reddit in conservative subs, but all through social media.
We NEED a global initiative against bots on social media platforms, tech firms won't because it allows them to fake interactions to sell advertisments. Has to be outside pressure put on these company, or legal ramifications for bots on social media.
The disinformation channels are very prevalent in right wing echo chambers, like the conservative sub on reddit, and it fuels hateful rhetoric and downplays anything positive.
I understand it may not happen, but it should be a step we take together as the human race.
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u/icenoid 1d ago
What is so annoying is that it may not even be bots in the technical sense. It could just as likely be human foreign influence campaigns. The US has been a house of cards for a long time. Obama broke the brains of what feels like half the country. The news in 2016 about foreign influence on our elections was somewhat accurate in that countries likely did use social media to influence votes. They did it again in 2024. On many of the more liberal subs, from damn near the day Biden took office there were posts about how we shouldn't vote for him in 24 because of student loans. When that didn't get traction, they moved on to the reversal of Roe. When that didn't get traction, they moved onto something else. It went on and on until the war in Gaza. I'm pretty convinced that some of the initial posts and more egregious comments were humans trying to convince people to not vote. It likely worked. I met one of those people in the wild who was influenced by this crap. She went on and on to a trans man about how it doesn't matter what the Rs might do to him, her only concern is Gaza. She has no ties to the Middle East, just what she saw on social media. How many people were influenced like her where they truly believe that the Ds are as bad as the Rs and that voting Stein is the solution?
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u/Static-Stair-58 21h ago
It’s “the monsters are due on maple street”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Monsters_Are_Due_on_Maple_Street
There are most definitely bots stoking fires, but all they have to do is stoke. The morons do the rest
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u/alltehmemes 21h ago
An arms race against the low- and no-cost weapons of bad actors and we are expecting corporations to do anything other line their pockets? I don't disagree with your point of arms reductions, but expecting an army of corporations to do it for anything less than all the money feels like a fools errand. Yes, they are capable as we can see in German Twitter, but without a substantial stick to enforce it, I don't see how this country is going to limit the speech of legal entities, especially when they can just spend more to combat the regulations to profit more.
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u/Special_Watch8725 21h ago
Yep. The promised land of plenty just around the corner that will make all the suffering worth it is a pretty common stable in more standard cults too. It’s really quite remarkable how many properties of a cult his political movement is checking off.
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u/HiddenSage 21h ago
The thing is - 2 years would be HELLA optimistic anyway.
A manufacturer wants to put up a new factory stateside, they've gotta find a location, buy land, draw up plans, get through permitting with local government - and none of that probably starts until they do a bidding war for tax breaks with a few municipalities.
Then you have construction of the facility, equipment purchasing, staff hiring and training.
Amazon can get a new FC up from scratch in 2 years, sure - I've seen them do it. But they've also built dozens of those and optimized their process for sourcing equipment. The staffing requirements for a warehouse are also... less meticulous than a modern industrial factory (which is going to be full of robotics and needs engineers, not Joe the Plumber).
3-4 years is FAR more likely as a construction timeframe, and that's if Nike and Ford all started immediately. With markets in freefall, and with it not being clear that the tariffs will be around that long, they're going to be holding their chips for a bit before committing investments.
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u/icenoid 20h ago
Oh, absolutely. What he will do is sort of a riff on the 2 weeks crap he did last term. He will claim 2 years, make a big deal of how things will be better after the midterms, then after the midterms, he will blame the democrats
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u/HiddenSage 20h ago
Yup. It'll be someone else's fault for not blindly worshipping him and having faith in his insane plans. Not his fault for having insane plans.
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u/loverlyone 20h ago
We’re still two weeks and 8 years away from an infrastructure plan, but I’m sure that new steel mill will be up and running in checks notes two years.
Simple once you waive all permitting, economic and environmental impact studies, OSHA guidelines, taxes…
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u/RChrisCoble 1d ago
R’s will lose the house and senate by then and overturn all this, then he’ll blame Democrats.
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u/helluvastorm 1d ago
He will declare an emergency and no elections will be held. Mark my words. Democracy is dead. We’re just like Putin’s Russia. Sad part is MAGA doesn’t even see it
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u/theassman107 23h ago
Wish I could give you more than one upvote, but happy some folks actually understand how grave the situation is. It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of WHEN he invokes the insurrection act and declares martial law. He wanted to in 2021 but cooler head prevailed and talked him down. That's not going to happen again.
While it hasn't been formally announced, everyone needs to realize we now live under a dictatorship.
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u/Slicelker 22h ago
While it hasn't been formally announced, everyone needs to realize we now live under a dictatorship.
You're forgetting about the 50 State Governments.
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u/SchmuckTornado 22h ago
The majority of which are controlled by Republicans and will assist him...
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u/Slicelker 22h ago
And the minority, the ones with most of the people and power, will resist him.
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u/Special_Watch8725 21h ago
Dictatorships generally don’t announce themselves like that. The leave just enough trappings of the old system to maintain plausible deniability, and removing even this is done slowly, on generational time scales. We don’t want the frogs jumping it of the water after all.
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u/Shadow_Phoenix951 17h ago
Fortunately, Trump is an 80 year old man who seems to want to speedrun that method, and Vance absolutely doesn't have the control of the masses that Trump does.
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u/fuzzybunnies1 17h ago
Elections are state based, there may be states that go along with it but there's no mechanism, legal or otherwise that can stop states from holding their elections.
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u/Birdy_Cephon_Altera 21h ago
If this was 2015, or 2005, or 1995, or 1985...then yes we would definitely expect a republican bloodbath in 2026.
I think all rules and norms and expectations are out the window at this point. I would not look at the past as an indicator of what will happen in the future, when it comes to anything trump.
Even if this country is worse off than the Great Depression in 2026, I still expect 95% of republicans to still vote republican, whether it is hearty support or holding their nose. Because they still think anything Democratic would be worse.
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u/mickalawl 9h ago
Yeah, even if right now, dems or the house block even the tiniest of things, that will be blamed as the single reason the Grand Design didn't come together.
The only remote chance of admitting they were duped would be to completely acquiesce and let Trump do whatever he wants. It will hurt everyone, but that seems to be the only way... although they would probably just blame Canada and Euroope for not sitting there and taking it.
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u/Svuroo 1d ago
They won’t. They’ll blame us for not believing and undermining the genius plan. It’ll be another reason to hurt us. Hate is all they know.
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u/KA_Mechatronik 1d ago
It's going to be the modern American version of the Stab-in-the-Back myth.
It will already be a nationalist, right wing seed crystal that becomes the scaffold for any perceived grievance to form on, just as the anti-communist/anti-Jewish idea that Imperial Germany was betrayed was the foundation that the Nazi party built on.
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u/soualexandrerocha 1d ago
A bit like people who dismissed covid right to the bitter end.
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u/AlternatePhreakwency 1d ago
Oh, you mean the 5g microchip implementation cover-up? I literally heard multiple similar conspiracy theories that essentially said the COVID-19 vaccine was just a way for the government to install "nano-chips" in us that would later be activated and controlled via 5g or some nonsense.... these f-ing people 🙄
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u/Haunting-Writing-836 1d ago
Hah. When I got one of my Covid shots I tapped my temple and said “hello. Hello. Come in Elon… hmm mine isn’t working” the nurse had a good chuckle.
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u/AlternatePhreakwency 1d ago
We had a crazy lady outside of the parking garage w/ a bullhorn reminding us where they were administering ours (drive-up). We made fun of her with the staff, real nut job lol.
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u/Haunting-Writing-836 1d ago
It’s actually really sad, because of all the real benefits vaccines have provided our entire civilization. It’s just so hard not to laugh at these people.
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u/Bundt-lover 18h ago
My coworker joked, “I got Microsoft Office loaded with mine. Word starts up so quickly now!” 😂
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u/clocks212 1d ago
If you look at any shit hole country with a strong man running the economy into the ground their approval rating never drops below the mid 30s. There is decent portion of any population that will believe the lie all the way into the ground and never reconsider.
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u/sfjc 1d ago
If COVID taught us anything it's that a person can be on their death bed with a disease they refuse to believe is real and they will literally take their last breath before acknowledging they were wrong.
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u/Eshin242 21h ago
The sunk cost fallacy is both fascinating and terrifying at the same time.
Fascinating to study and understand why humans have evolved to do it. Why some fall completely victim to it. Why some who have fallen victim to it, and end up breaking free from it. While others will die before they admit they were wrong.
Sadly, some of what makes it fascinating is also terrifying. To believe something so completely that you would rather die than admit fault is scary as fuck.
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u/omgFWTbear 1d ago
They won’t. Look up the founding of the 7th Day Adventists. Replace Rapture with “realize they’ve been scammed.”
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u/Evilbred 1d ago
MAGA aren't going to come around. They'll Jim Jones themselves before they admit they've been had.
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u/PUSSY_MEETS_CHAINWAX 1d ago
Many of them are already realizing it and just don't want to admit it.
Or, more callously, they don't feel like they have much to lose, so their capacity for empathy is at or near zero and has been for a long time.
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u/CaponeKevrone 1d ago
Nah when we hit rock bottom it will be someone else's fault.
We didn't go hard enough on tariffs
Or Democrats protesting spooked investors
Or the deep state undermined Trump
Or it was 4 years too late and it's Bidens fault
It will never be because Trump is an economically illiterate shit gibbon
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u/PossibilityFit5449 22h ago
Millions and millions of people in the ex soviet block countries who lived during that time are STILL super nostalgic about these times. Hence the reason why so many of them try to shit the soviet union back.
No amount of struggle they go through will ever convince these people that the idea they adore so much is the cause for all of their problems.
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u/hug_your_dog 1d ago
That's why I think we will have to hit rock bottom before these idiots realize they've been scammed.
Remember: doctors reported there were people dying from COVID who were vocally saying they don't have the virus and are not dying.
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u/spendology 1d ago
The MAGA bagholders will beg for rock bottom once the tragedy of Trump's idiocy drives the entire world into a global depression.
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u/juliankennedy23 23h ago
Honestly a lot of them are just too far gone it's flavor aid time for that bunch.
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u/RealisticForYou 1d ago
We do nothing....We let Trump ruin his own term. The sooner people feel the pain, the better chance the Republican Party will turn on him, while there are already cracks within his party. Let the stupidity of Trump ruin Trump.
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u/superindianslug 1d ago
There are only consequences if Mike Johnson wants there to be. Johnson seems like the type to burn the house down if he gets to establish a christo-fascist kingdom in the ashes.
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u/dznuts1977 1d ago
They’ll find a way to blame Canada or Mexico. Probably say we conspired against them. That we did crashed the market
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u/Terrible_Patience935 1d ago
Yes, that may happen. The gop may finally turn against trump but at what cost?! Ruining global economies to prove once and for all he is a loser seems extreme
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u/FourteenBuckets 1d ago
Twist the knife. Grumpy is good! That's their thinking brain trying to fight thier emotional brain, and the grumpiness reflects the pain of that.
Casually throw in that "nobody actually believes that" to everything they say. "whoever told you that lied to your face" Add the social dimension. Show some tough love. They're thinking emotionally, give them something emotional to think about.
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u/ozzie510 1d ago
Variations on the "let them eat cake" response.
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u/One_Cry_3737 1d ago
I was just thinking the same thing. It's just modified for the current century and economy.
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u/DarkBlueEska 1d ago
I guess they're completely ignoring all the people in the twilight of their careers who could retire at almost any time. Which is *really* weird, because that's exactly the demographic that votes reliably Republican in the first place.
It's also just demonstrably untrue that people don't check their account balances during chaotic times like this. Consider that the single most common piece of investment advice out there is not to panic sell.
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u/icenoid 1d ago
I was starting to look at when I can retire, the goal was a year or two. Was supposed to be meeting with a financial advisor to look into rebalancing all of my investment accounts towards that goal. That meeting was scheduled for early May. Since Thursday, I've lost something on the order of $150k which pushes my retirement back at least 2 more years. I'm not a republican voter, though I have voted for the occasional one over the years. In the end the tariffs have done a ton of damage to people my age and older. I'm not panic selling, but may cash out some investments to pay off any remaining debt I have. Yes, I know it bakes in the losses, but at this point, it's a question of baking in the losses, or continuing to bleed for the next 4 years. I don't see the markets getting any better until he is out of office
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u/f5alcon 1d ago
Do you have a plan for a long and big drop? 2008 and dot com bubble were both over 50% down, that might push you back a decade.
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u/icenoid 1d ago
My wife is already retired and has a pension. Thankfully we can live off of that if we live very frugally. I'm still working in tech and have lowered but not eliminated my 401k contributions, the rest is going into a HYSA for now. Beyond that, I'm holding on for now, though like I said, I may cash some things out to pay off what few debts we have left.
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u/kilpatrickbhoy 1d ago
And after all this, they'll still vote Republican. I've seen enough cycles of GOP-led disasters, but these idiots still vote for them. Because they're uncomfortable with gays and brown people living in cities.
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u/Unique-Coffee5087 1d ago
Yes. During the 2008 financial crisis, I was sure that the Republican party would be radioactive for a generation. Instead, they made gains in Congress during the 2010 midterms. I cannot express how hopeless I felt on that election day.
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u/mnradiofan 1d ago
I’m not saying we’ll never have another election again, but those in power sure seem to act like we won’t have an election ever again.
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u/pile_of_fish 1d ago
They want us to think that. It's part of an effort to demoralize opponents. Doesn't mean they're right. Folks have voted out more authoritarian governments than this.
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u/mnradiofan 1d ago
Oh I know, and it certainly won’t stop me from voting, I’m just increasingly afraid that they’ll come up with some loophole that “cancels” the election, like a wartime state of emergency.
It’s increasingly clear to me that by 2026 we will be at war with at least one country, if not the entire world.
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u/Shadow_Phoenix951 17h ago
It took Orban longer than this to get rid of legitimate elections, in a country with a weaker democracy to start with.
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u/Lostlilegg 1d ago
Americans who have been saving have likely been putting things away in safe bets like the S&P 500 so that their money doesn't get crushed by inflation. Now they are watching all that effort get destroyed.
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u/Marching_Hare1 1d ago
In my area of the country I see Trump 24 flags still flying in front of poorly maintained “ houses “ with multiple boats/ cars ( also in bad shape) in the front yard- I doubt these people have serious investment in the market an are likely “ Told ya so” laughing at people who are taking a serious hit
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u/icenoid 1d ago
The funny or sad thing is that these same people quite often work for public companies and don't understand that if a company stock tanks, they look at layoffs as a way to boost the stock price, even if it's only a temporary boost
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u/Marching_Hare1 1d ago
Or are enrolled in public assistance programs which are likely to get cut
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u/icenoid 1d ago
A good friend works for Habitat in a very red state. He's said that most of the people he and his group works with have the MAGA hats, some have the flags, and none of them see the irony in getting help from Habitat. He also said that some of their funding streams just got cut so all I can do is laugh
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u/FrankPoncherelloCHP 1d ago
This! Republicans get their rocks off on other people suffering, they sure back down easy when people fight back (hopefully soon)
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u/carbonclasssix 1d ago
This is the thing, the hardcore MAGA people support trump because they feel trampled upon and powerless. Generally speaking people that feel powerless and a loss of agency aren't outwardly successful.
Everyone being like "Trump supporters, are you tried of winning!?" is yelling into the wind
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u/mnradiofan 1d ago
Killing seniors is the point, it’s really that simple. Trump doesn’t see anyone who doesn’t contribute to the economy as anything more than a burden, and he hasn’t been secretive about this belief.
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u/coconutpiecrust 1d ago
Also GOP saying that grandma should just die to save the economy. Same energy right here.
Do GOP fans still think they, like, care? Are they still going to beg President Trump on twitter to save them?
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u/PdxGuyinLX 1d ago edited 1d ago
I’m retired recently and I sure as hell mind that I lost about $600k last week. Because I don’t believe any of the Trump administration’s bullshit I think it’s likely that we will go into a recession if not a depression, and the markets will likely drop further and stay down for a long time. In short I will most likely be poorer for the rest of my life thanks to this.
And who are the most reliable voters in the U.S.?
Edit: to be clear I voted for Harris and haven’t voted for any Republican for anything since 1984 (and that was in a specific situation where the Republican candidate was more socially liberal than the Democrat). But there are a lot of retired people who are independents or non-Maga Republicans and I don’t think they will ever forgive or forget this.
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u/BernieDharma 1d ago
I'm worried about being laid off and watching my portfolio being erode away every day is definitely stressing me out. "Day to day fluctuations" is an up and down - this is just plummeting down, there is no fluctuation.
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u/jedec25704 1d ago
Americans who want to retire right now, I think they don't look at the day-to-day fluctuations of what's happening
Aren't those the people who are most likely to care about day to day fluctuations, since they have the least flexibility for when to sell their retirement holdings? Wtf is he talking about?
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u/unclefisty 23h ago
Aren't those the people who are most likely to care about day to day fluctuations, since they have the least flexibility for when to sell their retirement holdings? Wtf is he talking about?
Actually they SHOULD be fairly well insulated from stock market turmoil because as you get closer to retirement your investment strategies SHOULD become more and more conservative. SHOULD.
Reality is that most of those people probably still have their 401k invested in whatever fund is the default from their plan provider which may or may not be a target date fund or some other fund that becomes less risky over time.
So right now they could be getting absolutely fucked over a barrel.
The US education system places zero value in economics education. Probably because if it did the unwashed masses of the US would want to feed politicians into a wood chipper at 10x the rate they already do and might actually do it.
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u/IKillZombies4Cash 1d ago
It’s like they are trying everything to not let boomers hand off the baton
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u/partia1pressur3 1d ago
It boggles the mind that this administration can continuously make mistakes and say things that any one of which would torpedo any other politician and there’s barely any backlash. And it’s only been 3 months.
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u/altukha1 1d ago
A lot of the prudent older investors will have a large allocation to bonds which have been doing good despite the equity turmoil.
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u/zeugma_ 1d ago
Bonds have been crushed the last five years what are you talking about? They will get worse if there's inflation and dedollarization, much worse.
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u/altukha1 1d ago
I am talking about the last few weeks with tariff anxiety not sure where you got last five years from consider equities did well during that period.
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u/Birdy_Cephon_Altera 21h ago
I - I think they don't look at the day-to-day fluctuations of what's happening
"DON'T LOOK UP!"
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u/DoughBoy_65 1d ago
No when you’re a billionaire you don’t look at the day to day fluctuations because you know you’re getting richer by the day when you’ve busted your ass for the last 40-50 years and look forward to retirement you look at it everyday to determine if you can stop working. These guys are so out of touch with the reality of the public they serve.
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u/slippery 21h ago
This was not the actual truth social post last week, but it feels right.
It feels like a world breaking moment of madness. Hey, after the last Smoot-Hawley, it only took 24 years to break even in US stocks. People about to retire won't mind.
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u/DonkeyIndependent679 1d ago
Lutnik likely has a red phone to putin. (I'm sort of kidding but the crap he preaches is beyond stupid.)
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u/skafantaris 1d ago
This is the most delusional out of touch thing he could possibly have said. Rich Americans can hand their portfolios off to others to manage. Middle class retirees, it’s basically your job to steward and manage your money — of course you’re looking at fluctuations in the market and strategizing which accounts to draw from — taxable or non-tax, cash or stock. You have to attend to it like a damned garden. These jagoffs are completely out of touch.
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u/vermilithe 18h ago
Wild.
No, the average American who is 40 years from retirement, who can’t touch their 401(k) funds until then— they’re the ones not checking the daily fluctuations.
The ones setting their retirement date, turning in their notices, putting together their budget for how they’ll make ends meet for the next decade or so watching TV, playing golf… those are the guys checking their retirement every day. The ones about to realize you’ve taken their retirement from them by slashing social security and at the same time crashing the investment market.
Those people are also more likely to have been Republican voters… before this round, at least, anyways.
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u/ReflectionNo5208 17h ago
Guys.. this is just the 15 point drop like any ebb and flow of the market.
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u/justprettymuchdone 17h ago
Reminds me of the guy in Texas cheerfully declaring that everybody's grandparents should be happy to make the "sacrifice" of dying from COVID if it meant no lockdowns.
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u/dropbearinbound 16h ago
"how do we solve the problem of an aging population"
I got an idea, first we cut healthcare, then ocial security, then we cut all retirement savings.... Then we give it 2-3 years and we should be good
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u/Durian881 1d ago
"Oil prices went down almost 15% in two days, which impacts working Americans much more than the stock market does. Interest rates hit their low for the year, so I'm expecting mortgage applications to pick up," Bessent told "Meet the Press" host Kristen Welker.
He assumed Americans won't lose their jobs. With what's happening, there will be job losses.
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u/TrasiaBenoah 1d ago
This guy shouldn't be in charge of anything. Claiming that one commodity deflated is beneficial while tanking the entire market is next level mental gymnastics
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u/Scary_Firefighter181 1d ago
You know, maybe Trump was right. DEI hiring IS bad. Bessent was clearly only hired because he was gay! /s
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u/Haunting-Writing-836 1d ago
Hah he’s just completely ignoring the reason for that single commodity going down. Trying to rephrase it as a good thing demand is expected to decrease.
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u/Inner_Honey_978 14h ago
Right? Oil going down sounds sweet til you know why... and there's two reasons this time. West Texas about to have some whole new ghost towns
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u/JonesinforJohnnies 1d ago
Oil dropping 15% is gonna kill his "Drill Baby Drill!" Promise. Oil companies are not going to drill new wells when there's no money to be made
And it probably won't make gas any cheaper when the price drops. So all the R's in the oil and gas industry will lose their jobs while also paying more for gas at the pump. Fun times
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u/DickDraper 21h ago
The irony that the Alaska wilderness remains untouched because of the incompetence of the administration is pretty delicious
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u/MizKCzou 16h ago
There are some D’s in the oil and gas industry as well…not many but some
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u/WingdingsLover 1d ago
Gas prices tend to go down in a recession so congrats on that silver lining??
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u/Contren 1d ago
Yeah, a quick drop in oil prices when there isn't a supply based reason it usually a really bad sign for the global economy.
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u/PM_Me_Icosahedrons 1d ago
OPEC decided Thursday to hike production by 411,000 bpd from May which likely played a (smaller) part in oil price going down as well.
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u/EpicCyclops 1d ago
If oil prices go through the floor and housing prices start to drop due to the Trump admin policies, it's because so many people are in such dire straights that they can't afford fuel or shelter, not because people are better off.
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u/jedec25704 1d ago
Not to mention anyone who has money invested in a 401k.
I know TDFs exist but anyone who looks at their retirement portfolios is just going to see Number Go Down. I'd be pissed.
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u/bitsandbooks 1d ago
Oil prices also could be coming down because the hundreds of thousands of people who have lost their jobs are no longer commuting to and from them, thus lowering demand.
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u/bigmarty3301 1d ago
i don´t think that amount of people, is going to make this big of a change. the situation is not that bad yet.
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u/FourteenBuckets 1d ago
plus, low oil prices mean US producers can't afford to extract shale oil, so they shut down production
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u/wraithius 1d ago
People won’t need oil if they don’t have jobs to drive to. That’s some smart thinkin’
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u/Green_L3af 1d ago
Makes zero sense. The seniors that are almost retiring and put away for years have the most to lose. They are the ones likely watching the market daily.
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u/WhileUpbeat9893 1d ago
If you're near to retiring, aren't you supposed to have a very small percentage of your investments in stocks, having most of it in bonds and a cash reserve to ride out turbulence?
That way stock market behavior doesn't decrease the value of your investments nearly so much?
I'm pretty far from retiring, so this doesn't really affect me in this way, but that's what I've read and what I've understood.
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u/No-Relation5965 1d ago
Not necessarily. It is often suggested to have at least 50% in equity to keep your accounts growing over the long term. Some people have the fortitude to hold in equity and have cash reserves set aside to weather the downturn.
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u/WhileUpbeat9893 1d ago
Someone who followed that advice would only suffer half the losses as us younger folk, then?
I've never learned much about bonds, but my understanding is they are more readily converted to cash and less volatile. So you'd use your more-liquid assets while waiting for the stocks to recover?
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u/No-Relation5965 1d ago
Yes you would have a few buckets to get you through SORR—sequence of (rate of) return risk. Basically means to have lots of safe investments just before and few years after retirement to mitigate risk due to large drops in the market just before or just after retiring.
Google SORR strategies.
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u/devliegende 1d ago
One needs to plan on being retired for 30 to 40 years. Therefore a "balanced portfolio" which is about 50/50 on stocks and bonds.
So when the market dump by 10% you lose maybe 4 to 5%. Which right at retirement equals around 1 year of living expenses.
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u/Koboldofyou 16h ago edited 16h ago
Generally middle class retirement is a bet that their investments will cumulatively go up 7% each and every year after they retire. So if you retire and the first year is +10%, your following years only need to be at +5% to hit the yearly cumulative goal. If your first year is +5%, then you need the next years to be better to raise your average. But if your first year is -20% then you have to yourself out of a hole and hope for much better market conditions.
Cash and bonds lower the year to year risk of variable markets, but does not alleviate the need for this cumulative growth. So people will delay retiring on down years, so that their cumulative growth rate does not take a massive hit.
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u/piperonyl 1d ago
Doesnt need to make sense.
It just needs to have enough truthiness that fox news can spin it into a win.
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u/ThomCook 1d ago
It makes perfect sense, trump is destroying America this is a large part of it. If they can't retire then there is no worker shortage. As well, trump is saying he doesn't want to do another election anymore so why would he care if they won't vote for him. The markets crashing either it lets rich people buy more Capitol or they just crash in general and it fucks over America both are wins in trumps book. This is what maga voted for trump was very clear about this.
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u/Chogo82 1d ago
That’s the point. There is always someone on the other end of the trade. When boomers lose, the other side wins. Wealth transfer accomplished.
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u/Presidential_Rapist 1d ago
Less consumers = less spending so that's still deflation of many markets.
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u/MrRogersAE 8h ago
Every day my FIL tells me how much he has lost that day. It’s usually 5-10k. That’s fine tho, he only needed that money to live off for the rest of his life
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u/prollyworthabean 1d ago
While millions were dying in a pandemic, the rallying cry from conservatives was "open the economy back up!"
Where is that same energy now that we're in an ego driven trade war?
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u/WittyCombination6 1d ago edited 1d ago
We're talking about the same admin that told people the way to cure COVID is they need to inject bleach into their veins.
Imma be honest I think people are confusing stupidity and greed with straight up malice
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u/Presidential_Rapist 1d ago
And the economy was never closed in the first place, just people didn't go to certain businesses like restaurants and movie theaters. Unemployment was mostly around 6% with like a 14% spike for a month or two. That's still 86%-94% of the economy running the entire time. The rates were higher in rural and poorer areas, but that's about the average.
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u/Current_Tea6984 1d ago
He's going to drive the car over the cliff. It looks like Bessent is saying that even dangling shiny deals in front of him won't change his mind. Clearly he is fully insane now. If Congress doesn't act to remove him soon, our economy will be a smoking ruin
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u/gquax 1d ago
I think he realizes his credibility is now shot, so he's doubling down. He won't be getting another job after this so he'll retire to his billions anyway.
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u/OracleofFl 1d ago
Trump NEVER would admit he is wrong. It is not in his DNA. Let's see him wiggle out of the Greenland promise now.
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u/robot_most_human 1d ago
Everyone please call your representatives (House and Senate). Be polite but do tell them that they are equally responsible for this tariff insanity if they throw up their arms and do nothing. They can pass legislation. If they’re Democrats and just say, “We’re not in power,” remind them that they can still bring bills to the floor using a discharge petition.
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u/mnradiofan 1d ago
Republicans are between a rock and a hard place. If they do nothing they risk losing to a Democrat in 2026, but if they stand up they risk losing their status of being a Republican. One lets them at least stay in politics while the other one is the end of their career. Which one would you pick?
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u/Practical_Seesaw_149 1d ago
well.....idk. If this gets bad enough that the regular everyday folks are hurting, they might very well be ok with his removal. We just have to hope that happens in time to rescue the economy.
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u/mnradiofan 1d ago
Unless it gets REALLY bad, they’ll do nothing. His fans are already saying they will sacrifice everything for him. As long as he has enough of them to primary out any dissent, they’d lose their seats before they’d lose their party affiliation, because at least if they keep their party affiliation they have a chance to stay in politics.
And if you look at his fans they are absolutely loving this because they are FINALLY owning the elites. They’ll stop loving him when they lose their jobs, but by then the economic damage will be done.
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u/Current_Tea6984 1d ago
That talk of sacrifice will melt away once they start really having to do it
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u/Practical_Seesaw_149 19h ago
yeah, that's what I think too. They talk a tough talk but they're cowards in the end. When they lose their jobs and homes and can't feed their kids, the desperation sets in real quick
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u/robot_most_human 1d ago
Let’s call them and make them understand that opposing Trump and his tariffs is the better option.
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u/mmlovin 20h ago
Are you asking any current Republican congressmen in office? They gonna pick the choice that lets them stay in office lol all the ones with a conscience were literally kicked out. & I hope those people are busy working on making their own party.
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u/silentswift 1d ago
This part is funny to me. Like just the fact they feel like they have to say, No we’re not trying to crash the economy on purpose.
“Hassett, for his part, rejected any suggestion that the market declines were part of some greater plan to bring down stocks.
"It is not a strategy for the markets to crash. It's a strategy to create a golden age for the American worker," he told ABC's "This Week."
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u/Presidential_Rapist 1d ago
Lol, Trump begs banks/Federal Reserve for lower interest and then says don't expect a rescue. How long until the Trump/GOP stimulus gets passed and they all get quiet about deficit spending? 1 year? 2 years? 8 months? They're already started with farmers because they know high food prices will eat them alive in the media fast.
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u/Practical_Seesaw_149 1d ago
aaaaaaand that's how you know this MOFO is gonna kick off a whole ass depression. I'm so thankful right now that I have years to let my portfolio recover and that my mother is still able to work and can put off tapping into hers.
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u/TheSamurabbi 20h ago
Until Mom loses her job in all of this madness because her company loses too many customers (who can’t afford to spend or are scared) and can’t refinance its debt effectively, and getting a new job at 50+ is hard. Especially when competing against all the people half that age who are stuck living at home who can accept less pay and haven’t learned to tolerate no abuse in the workplace yet.
- Signed, 2008
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u/Practical_Seesaw_149 19h ago
She's a nurse. With these crazies in charge, she won't be unnecessary and extraneous any time soon.
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u/brihamedit 1d ago
Is there any real credibility to trump's moves? We can see its all stupid random shit that will not fall into place and most likely will cause permanent damage. Trump is just trashing the place hoping things align later. But it won't.
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u/Presidential_Rapist 1d ago
The credibility comes with the numbers. Trump has yet to prove his great business skills or post above average economic results. His last term was entirely mediocre, more or less the same as Obama coming out of 2008 or GWB and 9/11. His business skills seems to have net him less revenue than had he just put his daddy's money into the stock market and he has a lot bankruptcy and fraud to his record.
He seems like a stereotypical small lot used car salesman pretending to understand economics to me. Like OK, hear me out, I know it's 30% over Kelly Blue Book, but CHECK OUT THIS SPOILER... and the hand gestures go wild!
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u/PUSSY_MEETS_CHAINWAX 1d ago
Reminds me of when Marco Rubio said that, if Trump hadn't inherited a real estate empire, he'd be hocking watches in Times Square. Funny how things change when you have any access to power. I personally think every person in this administration should be completely ashamed of themselves.
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u/DustBunnicula 1d ago
(1) Christofascist accelerationists in the GOP want America to collapse, as part of trying to manufacture Jesus’ return. They’re fuckheads who don’t even try to follow Jesus’ words.
(2) Putin wants America to collapse. Trump is a Russian agent. Etc.
(3) Bad faith billionaires who support Trump want to further wealth inequality, including out of fear of pitchforks.
(4) Trump is a fucking idiot.
So yeah, no rescue from Cheeto Mussolini is coming.
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u/its_raining_scotch 1d ago
Yep. Also, Bunnicula is rad.
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u/DustBunnicula 1d ago
You made my day! I love when people pick up the reference. It was my favorite book series, growing up, and “Dust Bunny” was my first “handle” in early internet days. :)
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u/Scabies_for_Babies 1d ago
They are certainly audacious in the way that they will wield popular sentiments about the markets in a way that makes it very clear they are divorced from the economic anxieties of the working masses that they claim to represent.
It's true that a lot of people don't care about the markets per se but they DO care if there is a precipitous crash that wipes out demand, destroys investment in business, and leads to massive job losses and a severe economic downturn that affects the broader economy.
That is extremely different from the critique that a roaring stock market does not mean broad-based prosperity for all sections of society.
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u/juni4ling 22h ago
Monday is going to be bad.
Thursday was not so good.
Friday was not so good.
Trump went golfing over the weekend. And his new religious movement surrogates don't care, either. "We arent going to fix this obvious and glaring problem."
Monday?
Monday is going to be bad.
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u/antsmasher 22h ago
It's almost like people shouldn't vote for a guy who went through 6 bankruptcies, had 94 criminal charges, found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records, and led the Jan. 6 insurrection.
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u/Jodid0 1d ago
None of this should have ever happened in the first place. But since we are here, I hope Trump doesn't budge an inch. I am so sick of him getting bailed out of his own stupidity. People need to see the unfiltered, unmitigated disaster that is Trump and his goon squad. His supporters have built a mental wall over the past decade and it has to be torn down brick by brick, preferably by Trump himself, before they could ever hope to get a fucking clue.
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u/haversack77 1d ago
I agree. If he magically got removed from office tomorrow, millions of Trump voters would have learned nothing, and would just revert to some victimhood conspiracy theory to explain events. He needs to visibly undo himself within plain sight so that people can learn their lesson.
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u/bobthedonkeylurker 22h ago
If they didn't learn from his first term, what makes you think they'll learn now?
They aren't learning. They aren't anti-Trump. They're not joining the protests. They're still Trump voters, they just didn't expect Trump to hurt them and they're not asking Trump to stop. They're asking Trump to just stop hurting them.
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u/carlnepa 1d ago
Only have money to eradicate DEI, eliminate services, fund DOGE, give billionaires tax breaks and to fly back and forth to Mar A Scam-O. Hey, sending thoughts and prayers, though.
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u/RoseyOneOne 1d ago
I wasn't sure about opening some shorts tomorrow, under the thinking that further terrible headlines are priced in with the latest drops, but now I think I'll go ahead and do that.
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u/TuffNutzes 1d ago
When there are enough dummies who can elect enough dummies who then appoint plenty of other dummies to protect and make excuses for the elected dummies, you get the current result.
It's an education and critical thinking crisis.
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u/Mach5Driver 20h ago
We, as a country, needed to learn the hard way. Trump is giving the object lesson in what it REALLY means to vote GOP at long last. Telling them was not enough. Merely flirting with utter disaster was not enough. Americans finally voted for a Trump/GOP/Project 2025 Devastation. We earned this lesson, and from all signs, people are truly learning and won't soon forget--as they usually do.
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u/StopLookListenNow 1d ago
I am the third husband of my wife who said she was a virgin on our wedding day. How could that be? Her first husband was a preacher man of GOD!, but he preferred little boys, so she divorced him quickly. The second was a maga man of TRUMP! and he just sat on the edge of the be telling her how good everything would be someday.
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u/CremedelaSmegma 1d ago
The “rescue”, whatever form that may be is when the capital class has washed out retail/retirement funds and the CXO’s locked into low strike prices.
Then, they will put the screws on hard.
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u/hobopopa 1d ago
Yeah ?
Then it's time for:
A general strike.
collective withdraw of savings/checking accounts.
If organized, the people have some strong control mechanisms of the economy. If they decided to all stay it home or withdraw their money, serious implications would teeter markets. Imagine if all teachers, FAA ( air traffic controllers) employees, and grocery store workers decided to take a couple days off work?
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u/titosrevenge 1d ago
Advocating for a run on the banks is dumber than what they're doing.
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u/Late_Mixture8703 1d ago
I am part of a member owned local credit union, so why would I want to pull my money out?
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u/ScarTemporary6806 21h ago
Yeah, Bessent really told people he’s impressed with the infrastructure of the market because we had record volume on Friday and the American people need to take comfort in that. Yes, it is so comforting that record amounts of American stocks were being dumped by investors 😂
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u/cleepboywonder 1d ago
Based.
Liberals should be rejoicing, this is going to win them substantial votes in 2026. Yes people will suffer but we voted for this nonsense and get what we deserve.
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u/RealisticForYou 1d ago
I agree with your statement. This past weeks Special Elections says everything...Trump is already losing support.
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u/crankyexpress 1d ago
The point that we need our mfg base as a national security issue is valid but they forgot about Donnie’s white collar supporters in the process…brutal.
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u/No-Relation5965 1d ago
I didn’t get to read the article yet. But I wanted to have this comment stand so I needed to write a couple of sentences. :) Below is the link to the article without the paywall.
https://archive.ph/2025.04.06-165126/https://www.axios.com/2025/04/06/trump-tariffs-stock-market
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