r/Forex • u/seethisisland • 1d ago

Fundamental Analysis What is up with AUD?

Cratering like a rock against USD! I get that it is impacted by BOTH the US tariffs and now the China tariffs, but Australia is a self sufficient economy no?

Is it a good time to accumulate?

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u/Meowwolff 1d ago edited 1d ago

I'm actually also wondering about this. AU is the only thing I trade. I'm wondering if I should lay off for a while and move to something else like USD/JPY or USD/CHF. NZD/USD would fit my trading style i already use on AUD/USD, but it's still tied to china and commodities. Commodities are crashing 🤦‍♂️. I wonder where we'll be in a year. AU is sitting at .6, hasn't been this low since covid, but it recovered in a month 🤷‍♂️. I'm sure I'm worrying too much.

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u/thealt3001 1d ago

NZD tends to follow AUD and their economies are inextricably linked, so trading one vs the other in this situation is kind of moot.

I personally loaded up on AUD today. Think this could be a big opportunity when(if) it recovers. There are never any certainties in this game, but as someone who trades historical resistance levels, AUD and NZD appear to be on sale right now.

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u/Meowwolff 1d ago

Yeah, fire sale if this kicks back like covid era. I got the nzd suggestion from chatgpt. Looking at it right now definitely gives me the vibe it's more insulated than AU. We're at early march levels. I stayed out of the market Thursday and Friday, and I'm probably gonna stay that way till I get the feeling AUD/USD's bottomed out. Or at least until I see some familiar setups. I only touch AU ( I don't think I'm ready to monitor multiple assets consecutively), and it seems like a bad time to dip my toes, backtest, and get familiar with something new.

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u/Chrissylumpy21 1d ago

USD strong!

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u/Snoo_45246 1d ago

If you're wondering why AUD is behaving like that, go on to chatgpt and try to find out about their current economic strength, gdp, unemployment etc.

Once you got the fundamentals figured out, try to relate it to technicals i.e higher timeframes ; D1/W1/M.

Once both fundamentals and technicals links up, just trade and execute whatever the market is showing you. You are worrying for nothing tbh as retail traders need to adapt. The market changes every year and some pairs even changes every quarter of the year. There's is nothing that we can do to fight this so instead, we adapt

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u/Spathas1992 1d ago

Actually no. Australia and New Zealand are heavily tied with China, especially on exports.

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u/Early_Retirement_007 1d ago

Is AUD not a commodity currency? Energy has been coming off lately. Probably sensitive to China too.

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u/Evening-Character307 1d ago

'but Australia is a self sufficient economy no?'

No. Neither is new Zealand. Reddit is not gonna tell you this but these countries are cratering at a faster pace than most of the g20. They are both also highly dependant on experts

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u/ramonvaljr 1d ago

Its really tied to China, so I wouldn't say self sufficient economy.