r/Oscars • u/Fantasia_Fanboy931 • Jan 29 '25
Prediction What do you think will win Best Picture in 2025?
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u/gwimbles1 Jan 30 '25
I think it will be the Brutalist based on the momentum in awards season. There was an episode of the Ricky Gervais show Extras where Kate Winslet appeared as herself and said that the best way to win an Oscar was to do a Holocaust movie. She later went on the win an Oscar in real life for the Reader. All joking aside, The Brutalist was a VERY good movie. (I have not yet seen Nickel Boys or I'm Still Here.)
I just hope to goodness it's not Emilia Pérez. I'm all for shining a spotlight on Latino and trans stories, but not like this. If this film wins, it will be huge blow to the credibility of the Academy. Latinos, Mexicans, and trans people think it is bad representation for both of them. Plus, this will give more ammunition to the "anti-woke" grifters on the internet who will say that it's only nominated for political reasons.
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u/djmv91 Jan 29 '25
My current guess is Anora. It won Palme d’Or and TIFF top three like Parasite and Neon will put a great campaign for it. Searchlight is one of the best in the business so can’t rule out A Complete Unknown either but I don’t see it getting guild love except SAG for Chalamet. Focus and Netflix have horrible track records for Best Picture so I don’t see Conclave or Emilia Perez winning for that. I think the AI controversy will hurt The Brutalist (which is overblown). I don’t see a realistic path for The Substance (which is my favorite of the nominees), Dune Part Two, I’m Still Here (which I haven’t seen), Nickel Boys, or Wicked. The guilds will be the determining factor but I really believe it is Anora’s to lose.
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u/RegularOrMenthol Jan 29 '25
yeah i would love Brutalist to win, but I think Anora still has it. it's the contender with the most heart and emotion.
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u/Block-Busted Jan 30 '25
At the same time, I’m not sure if voters would be willing to give Best Picture to a film about a sex worker due to potential stigmas surrounding the subject.
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u/nickdacoder Jan 30 '25
But Anora won’t win best picture without any big precursor win. ATM its best chance is probably PGA but even that feels like a long shot. That’s why I don’t see it winning right now
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u/djmv91 Jan 30 '25
What do you see winning? I’m not ruling out Anora winning PGA.
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u/nickdacoder Jan 30 '25
It’s now between the Brutalist and Emilia Perez for me. As for Anora winning PGA, it’s not impossible but it’s probably like #4 in terms of possibilities. We will see.
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u/grandmofftalkin Jan 30 '25
I'm thinking Emilia Perez will get International Feature and The Brutalist will get Best Picture
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u/truckturner5164 Jan 30 '25
The Brutalist but Emilia Perez sure has a heck of a lot of nominations for something that isn't likely winning the big one. It kinda gets you thinking.
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u/SaritaLinda64 Jan 30 '25
It's too divisive to do well in a preferential ballot. Ask Joker.
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u/truckturner5164 Jan 30 '25
Both The Brutalist and Emilia Perez are divisive lol, so I guess that means something else wins?
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u/SaritaLinda64 Jan 30 '25
A Complete Unknown seems like the most perfectly pleasant movie that nobody hates, and got nominated in all the right places except editing. Or maybe Conclave can survive the director snub.
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u/truckturner5164 Jan 30 '25
I would nearly pick A Complete Unknown for the win except would Oscar really go for a simple, traditional biopic for Best Picture? I'm not sure. It's possible for Conclave to win because I'm sure films have won BP without Best Director, but I dunno. I've still got The Brutalist at this stage. Might need to see how other awards show shake out first.
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u/TheMarvelousJoe Jan 30 '25
Sadly, it seems like Dune Part 2 isn't winning this. Either Conclave, Anora, or The Brutalist is winning. This Oscar season seems unpredictable.
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u/National_Summer_441 Jan 30 '25
What if it pulls a Gladiator
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u/TheMarvelousJoe Jan 30 '25
The difference is that Gladiator had the most nominations back then and won 5.
Dune Part 2 only has 5 nominations
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u/cobaltfalcon121 Jan 30 '25
I want either Dune or The Substance, but it’s likely The Brutalist or Emilia Perez
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u/jraspider2 Jan 29 '25
I’m hoping for The Brutalist, but feel like it might be too challenging for some academy voters. Think Anora has the best shot currently with it being a bit of a crowd pleaser, relatively uncontroversial, and a film that a number of people seem to have genuine excitement for.
That said, not all that confident feels like at least half of the films nominated could realistically win at this point so we’ll just have to see how the rest of award season shakes out.
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u/GBTC_EIER_KNIGHT Jan 30 '25
I think Conclave may upset the category since both Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist are in AI controversies. I root for Conclave since I want personally Ralph Fiennes to win this year
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u/Correct_Weather_9112 Jan 30 '25
I think conclave underperformed with missing Cinematography and Directing. I can still see it winning, but I think Brutalist gained momentum after nominations.
I think Emilia Perez will be too divisive to win
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u/GBTC_EIER_KNIGHT Jan 30 '25
I think EP is only locked for Best Supporting Actress and Song. I think I‘m Still Here will get International Feature and Torres has a chance to upset the category in her favor. rooting for Conclave for BP and Ralph Fiennes because I think it‘s time for him to win his first. Brody already has one
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u/Scdsco Jan 29 '25
I think it’s a classic six horse race between Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, and Wicked
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u/eltryontea Jan 30 '25
Love these kinds of posts :)
I would LOVE for The Substance to take home the big prizes and pull a 'Silence of the Lambs' on us.
I predict Brutalist as far as art form and just spectacle of film.
Conclave is good but it's just so unimpressive and nothing spectacular. Raiph Phinnes' performance is so good and Tucci (when is he going to win for playing that kind of guy?)
I HOPE it's not Wicked lol
It isn't Chicago or La La Land and it's all just color and technically wonderful, so I hope it picks up there.
I'm a huge fan of Nosferatu so I would like it to win the 4 it's nominated for.
My favorite movie of 2024 aside from Nosferatu is Anora and if she wins it proves the academy truly votes for filmmaking as an art in all departments (direction, screenplay, acting, photography).
So excited for the ceremony, it's such a good competition this year.
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u/Correct_Weather_9112 Jan 30 '25
Anora or Brutalist. Emilia has massive backlash. Conclave im not confident in
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u/The_Walking_Clem Jan 29 '25
A Complete Unknown
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u/Price1970 Jan 29 '25 edited Jan 29 '25
They're not giving it to a music biopic.
The nomination is considered a win for that genre in that category: Coal Miner's Daughter, Ray, Bohemian Rapsody, ELVIS
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u/The_Walking_Clem Jan 29 '25
It got more nominations that people were expecting, so it clearly a loved movie by the voters
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u/Price1970 Jan 30 '25
It has the exact amount of Oscar nominations as ELVIS with 8, and they ridiculously blanked ELVIS after it had won one or more all over the world with critics, festivals, academies and media, most notably four BAFTA wins, including Best Actor, while Austin Butler was dominating internationally: Foreign Press, International Press, UK, Australia, Ireland, Spain, South Africa, etc.
It has only one more than Coal Miner's Daughter (7)
Two more than Ray (6)
Three more than Bohemian Rapsody (5)
Three or four, but especially five or more Oscar nominations, is pretty significant.
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u/BooleanBarman Jan 30 '25
Should be Dune 2, but I think it ends up being The Brutalist. Great movie, though. Just not the one I’d have chosen.
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u/National_Summer_441 Jan 30 '25
I think they didn’t campaign enough it lost momentum, if it had come out around November no doubt it would’ve been the front runner.
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u/kidhalloween80 Jan 30 '25
Wicked.
It isn’t the best movie being nominated, but it hits the check marks for a best picture win, in a year where there isn’t a clear favorite for best picture it seems like the safe choice.
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u/Quanqiuhua Jan 30 '25
Agree, just give it to Wicked since Dune II seems unlikely.
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u/Block-Busted Jan 30 '25
At the same time, however, Wicked has such a blatant cliffhanger ending whereas Dune: Part Two at least completes the first book.
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u/ImportantFondant2987 Jan 29 '25
I feel like Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist are the 2 most likely winners. Followed by a Conclave win in case of vote splitting between the first 2. Unless Anora picks up a lot of momentum with wins from several major ceremonies it will not happen.
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u/National_Summer_441 Jan 30 '25
I want Dune. We don’t really see big epic movies win best picture nowadays, ROTK was the last.
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u/WalterCronkite4 Jan 30 '25
I'm hoping for Dune Part 2 or The Substance because the academy hates those types of films
That said it's either Anora or The Brutalist
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u/Unabridgedversion82 Jan 30 '25
What I think: Anora
What I hope: Anora
What Should Win: The Brutalist
That's Cool: Dune #2
That's Cool: The Substance
Ok: A Complete Unknown
Ok: Concalve
No: Nickel Boys
No: Wicked
No: I'm Still Here
Absolutely Fuck Everything. I Hate The Academy, They Are Self Righteous Asshats With No Grasp Of Reality: Emilia Perez
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u/orenprincipe Jan 29 '25
Anora, Wicked or Conclave 😇
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u/honeybadger1105 Best Actor Jan 29 '25
Wickeds not winning
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u/orenprincipe Jan 30 '25
hoping though
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u/honeybadger1105 Best Actor Jan 30 '25
I hope not lol
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u/orenprincipe Feb 01 '25
oh, a hater? hmmm
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u/honeybadger1105 Best Actor Feb 01 '25
100%. Wicked does not deserve it
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u/orenprincipe Feb 01 '25
“I hope you’re happy Now that you’re choosing this… I hope it brings you bliss I really hope you get it And you don’t live to regret it I hope you’re happy in the end…”
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u/random-banditry Jan 30 '25
will be shocked if it’s not anora, the brutalist, or conclave. ai controversy could derail the brutalist and conclave might not pick up enough steam, so i’m going with anora
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u/SupremeDisplayRacing Jan 30 '25
Brutalist was too awful of a narrative story to win best picture imo. Its the favorite and the Emilia perez backlash may help it win, but I really don't think it will. I think it will do awesome in other categories bc it is awesome at a lot of stuff, but the story is just not good enough. Anora has kind of fallen off in terms if momentum, but I think it will win.
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u/rebuildingsince64 Jan 30 '25
Hoping for the Brutalist, but with the recent sweeping wave of anti-wokeness rearing its ugly head across the country I could see a film of Conclave’s narrative swaying a vote to stick it to the man so to speak.
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u/Trekkie_on_the_Net Feb 27 '25 edited Feb 27 '25
I think it's a load of hooey that two films are nominated for BOTH "Best Picture" and "Best INTERNATIONAL Picture." Either "Best Picture" should only feature American films, or your should eliminate the International category altogether, in order to allow foreign films in "Best Picture." The reason the International category even exists is to specifically recognize foreign films, that wouldn't otherwise be represented.
And as far as even picking one, i haven't seen most of them. Most of them are films that have limited theatrical films, won't be played in many markets at all, and if they are in your market, it's a blink-or-you-will-miss-it thing. And not all of them become available for streaming in time for Oscars. If they are, you may have to get them on all different platforms. The days are gone when the Oscars gave awards to great movies real people watched.
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u/Quanqiuhua Jan 30 '25
What film can compete against freakin’ Shogun, the reigning Outstanding Drama Series winner? It’s really only Dune, Wicked and maybe Conclave. So one of these three should win it.
Let’s not repeat a Coda win for the Oscars when the Emmys had Succession S3, it’s embarrassing.
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u/Algae_Mission Jan 30 '25 edited Jan 30 '25
As much as I would love for Anora or Conclave to win, I’m pretty sure it’ll be Emilia Pérez. Which sucks. I’d take literally every single film that’s also been nominated over Emilia Pérez from The Brutalist to Wicked. But the film got 13 nominations. 13! That’s the same as Oppenheimer, which won last year. That’s more than Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. And it’s just shy of tying the record.
The Academy must really like this movie. And I don’t get why.
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u/NepEnut Jan 29 '25
The Brutalist or Conclave are my guesses. But The Brutalist is the most likely winner of the two.