Link: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/04/tariffs-trump-outcomes-incompatible/682286/ Archive link: https://archive.ph/32PE0

Trump’s defenders praise the president for using chaos to shake up broken systems. But they fail to see the downside of uncertainty. Is a textile company really supposed to open a U.S. factory when our trade policy seems likely to change every month as Trump personally negotiates with the entire planet? Are manufacturing firms really supposed to invest in expensive factory expansions when the Liberation Day tariffs caused a global sell-off that signals an international downturn?

The Star Wars prequel movies.

Episode I begins with the Trade Federation (China) upset with the Republic (America) over new taxes (tariffs) imposed on the Outer Rim (foreign nations). The Trade Federation responds to these taxes with recoiprical trade action.

This is where we are today.

The Republic, acting under the influence of Palpatine (Trump) sends delegates to negotiate, however Palpatine ensures that the negotiations fail so that conflict would escalate and tip the situation into crisis.

Later, with open conflict between the Confederacy of Independent Systems (UN) and the Republic, Palpatine consolidates his control over the Imperial Senate (Congress) by declaring a State of Emergency (Executive Orders). Due to the conflict he is able to maintain his leadership indefinitely (third term).

To quote Wookieepedia:

Palpatine as Emperor maintained the Galactic Senate as an illusion of constitutional legitimacy, however in truth it merely gave legal sanction to decisions already made by the Emperor. Many of the Imperial citizenry however believed that Palpatine was indeed restoring stability to the galaxy, after he vowed to end corruption in the Senate.

Only one thing can be concluded here...

George Lucas is a Sith Lord.

Elon Musk’s recent call for a zero-tariff trade system between the U.S. and EU seems less about free-market principles and more about salvaging Tesla’s plummeting sales and stock value.

Tesla’s Q1 2025 deliveries dropped 13% year-over-year to 336,681 vehicles, missing analyst expectations by over 10% and marking the company’s worst quarter in three years. The stock has nosedived 36% since January, closing at $239.43 on April 4, 2025.

Financially, Tesla’s balance sheet reveals a total debt of $13.62 billion as of December 2024, a 42% increase from the previous year. This includes $3.73 billion in current liabilities due within 12 months. The company’s cash and short-term investments stand at $29.64 billion, providing some liquidity but also highlighting significant financial obligations.

So now Ol Musky is out here crying “free trade agreements and zero tariff!” like it’s some kind of economic enlightenment—when really, he’s just watching Tesla bleed from soft sales, a 36% stock dive this year, and $13B in debt breathing down his neck.

The guy built an empire on subsidies and sweetheart deals, and now that the global playing field isn’t tilted in his favor?

“Hi. Everyone!…uh….free trade agreements!….uh…I give it to you. Because I love you!”

What is he trying to fix with the tariffs and will it work?

Source

Citations and further reading:

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey
• Survey: Gen Zers don't want to work in factories; they see industrial jobs as low-paying dead ends

Younger workers appear to have little interest in skilled labor, even as the need for manufacturing and clean-energy talent grows.

• HR Drive: US manufacturers say they struggle to fill ‘critical labor gaps’

In a survey of more than 300 HR leaders in manufacturing, nearly 70% said labor shortages impact their ability to meet production demands, and 40% said production delays occur at least once per week.

🤔🤔

Hey folks — just wanted to drop some thoughts on something I think flies under the radar way too often.

We all know people argue politics around schools, the military, and government spending. But here’s the truth:

Attacking or defunding these institutions doesn’t just “own the other side” — it wrecks local economies. Let’s break it down:

What is DODGE?

I use “DODGE” to sum up the three biggest taxpayer-backed pillars of the U.S. job market: • Department of Defense • Government (federal, state, local) • Education (K–12 + higher ed)

These three employ millions, pay reliably, and are everywhere — not just in big cities.

Why they matter:

1.  They’re stable income streams
• Teachers, postal workers, military folks, city clerks — they get paid on time, spend money locally, and keep economies moving, even during recessions.

2.  They fund entire towns
• Lots of communities are built around a military base, state university, or federal facility.
• Shut one down? Boom — local businesses dry up, home values fall, and people leave.

3.  They reduce economic crashes
• During 2008 and COVID, it was government jobs that helped hold things together.
• Public schools still paid staff. The VA still hired nurses. The DoD still issued contracts.

4.  They train and protect us
• Education = skilled workforce
• Government = functioning systems
• Defense = national security
• Undercut these, and we’re flying blind with a weak team.

So what happens when we attack or defund them?

• Teachers leave. Kids fall behind. Future workers are underprepared.
• Military families relocate. Base towns lose their income stream.
• Local governments shrink. Less support for roads, safety, healthcare.
• People spend less. Small businesses suffer. Local tax revenue drops.

It’s a domino effect — and it hits working-class and rural areas the hardest.

TL;DR:

DODGE jobs are economic lifelines. They provide stable paychecks, keep money circulating, and act as a buffer during bad times.

Cutting them isn’t “fiscally responsible.” It’s like cutting out the beams holding up your house because the paint’s chipped.

Let’s stop pretending this is just about politics. It’s about whether our communities survive or collapse.

no more money to keep buying the dips. thinking of selling my other purchases to buy at a lower price even though i will take a loss but i want to take advantage of low prices. maybe the cheaper prices will make up for the loss from buying higher dips. thoughts???

Ted Cruz is a lot of things, and to put it the kindest way, he's...not exactly a charming person. Even the people who voted for him don't like him! But he's also most decidedly not a moderate or Trump-shy conservative. And if even he is starting to speak out, I don't think it suggests GOP unity on Trump's trade war plans.

In case anyone hits a paywall:

China has announced it will impose additional tariffs of 34 per cent on imports from the US in retaliation for duties of the same amount unveiled by President Donald Trump this week as part of his aggressive trade agenda.

The Ministry of Commerce said on Friday that the tariff would be imposed on all imported goods originating from the US from April 10. Levies on Chinese exports are set to rise to more than 60 per cent after the US president announced “reciprocal” tariffs of 34 per cent that come on top of existing tariffs.

Beijing denounced the new US duties as “a typical unilateral bullying move” that “does not comply with the rules of international trade and seriously damages the legitimate rights and interest of China”.

Trump issued an Executive Order about De Minimis, getting rid of it for HK and China over the next couple months. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/further-amendment-to-duties-addressing-the-synthetic-opioid-supply-chain-in-the-peoples-republic-of-china-as-applied-to-low-value-imports/

This was the same topic debated in Congress. If you're not familiar with it, De Minimis allowed shipments under $800 entering the US to go to recipients without being treated as commercial goods, unless they were specifically declared as commercial goods. So they don't need to comply with the laws applicable to commercial goods, or pay import duty.

As has become normal this EO uses drugs as a justificaiton to declare another national emergency. And as with many things these days, the justification doesn't make sense. Under De Minimis goods were only excempt from formal entry requirements, they were (and still are) subject to the same level of screening by the CBP regardless.

So drug shipments will have the same chance of being caught before and after the EO.

But anyway, what's the REAL impact?

No more tax free shipments of low value stuff to the US from Temu and others. The EO divides shipments into postal shipments and others (for example DHL) and there are different methods of calculating how much is owed which I won't go into.

Good or bad?

IMO it's a rare W for Trump policy. Companies in China like Temu, Shein, and Aliexpress have been shipping stuff directly to US consumers using the postal service for dirt cheap. Not only is that stuff able to get to consumers without any taxes being paid, it also doesn't have to comply with any regulatory requirements, forced labor, or other requirements.

Eww, regulatory stuff, you might think. It's not just dictating the font used on a label, it's ensuring that your child's toy doesn't contain lead, is a choking hazard, or your baby's blanket isn't as flammable as a tissue. Making products that are decent quality and safe is costly, and a company in China (or anywhere) that doesn't have to comply will be able to undercut companies that do.

There are some impacts to small businesses that for some reason may be receiving a lot of packages as a core part of what they do. For example those overseas shopping services. And courier companies are going to have a lot of admin to take care of, though they will surely pass those costs over to consumers (and more).

Overall it's a good move to stop companies outside the US from carpet bombing the country with cheap crap of dubious quality.

But!

But Trump ought to have let Congress deal with this. They were already headed in this direction and there's bipartisan support, so it didn't need to be yet ANOTHER "emergency" order.

These drug emergencies are starting to become like the old South Park skit.

TL;DR

Starting soon, all packages coming into the US from HK and CH will be taxed even if the value of the shipment is low.

"If passed, the Trade Review Act of 2025 would require the president to notify lawmakers of an imposition or increase in tariffs within 48 hours, explaining the reasoning and providing analysis of the impact on American businesses and consumers. 

Congress would need to pass a joint resolution of approval for the new tariffs within 60 days or the additional taxes would expire, and it would also be able to end the tariffs at any time with a resolution of disapproval. "