r/WallStreetbetsELITE • u/RoyalChris • 1d ago

MEME Tired of winning yet?

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u/Lingweenie2 1d ago edited 1d ago

Yeah like someone said. Fear and greed is a 4. That’s insane lmao. Don’t believe I’ve ever seen it this low. Maybe not even below a 10.

Time to load the boat folks. I’m buying this fear till the cows come home. If this ain’t capitulation then i don’t know what is.

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u/Corelivan 1d ago

For a capitulation i need a 80 vix

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u/Lingweenie2 1d ago

The VIX is the third highest it’s been in like 20 years. Only times higher was Covid and 2008. I don’t even think it cracked 80 in 2008. Waiting around for 80 is HIGHLY unlikely to happen. It’s quite rare to go past 35-45.

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u/artulab 1d ago

VIX was 65 on July 2024.

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u/Lingweenie2 1d ago

Where are you seeing that? VIX during July 2024 was right around 15. Most definitely not anywhere near 65 lol

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u/Ax1er 12h ago

That is the big question now isn't it? When to buy back in?

I'm sitting on cash and 60\90 day puts at the moment not sure whether to pick up some longer dated ones at a lower strike due to the increasing likelihood of a recession or even a depression. Alternatively I could start tentatively DCAing into some of Mag 7 if it seems that the stupid has stopped.

I'm leaning towards the puts though for two main reasons trump has never been able to admit when he was wrong (remember that stupid Sharpie hurricane thing?) so I don't see him reversing course.Some countries may come looking for a deal but good will to the USA, and especially trump, is at an all time low. So world leaders really can't be seen to be capitulating to an obvious bullying tactic. The second reason is Europe hasn't responded yet as far as I've seen if they double down like China did there is a lot more sort term downside.

Thoughts?

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u/Lingweenie2 12h ago

I personally think yesterday was a good day to be doing some strong buying. I’m not talking to the point of leveraging up and getting a second mortgage, though. But a good day to plug your nose and do some smart buys on actual strong companies/ETF’s. But once you flirt with bear market territory (some are referring this to a bear market, but I regard that more as a longer/prolonged term down trend. This for now is a steep correction and maybe even a crash of sorts.)

But this to me just gives serious Covid crash vibes. Feels like Deja Vu. Markets don’t just fall apart like this. It’s very unusual and just too sudden. There’s not enough underlying economic issues currently, and people simply don’t know what this all will actually end up doing. Nothing is completely in action. And if it does, then how long? During Covid people were literally thinking we would be boned for years and it’s going to be catastrophic. People were certain the world won’t be the same for years. Despite all that, the stock market roared right back seemingly defying reality. Obviously the fed did a lot of prop things up, though. But that was a straight up existential crisis. And the end results was only a dump off of about 30%. I just don’t regard this as nearly as significant or worrisome. This thing can flip on a dime if the tone shifts or some ‘deals’ are made quickly.