Get ready for the temp pump. Economy is still solid beneath the surface. Market crashing solely based off of tariff fears.

RSI is oversold in hourly, daily and weekly charts. I hope ya'll printed your puts today as they will be worthless next week when Trump pulls an uno reverse on us.

I’ve YOLO’D EVERYTHING I HAVE INTO AI STOCKS THEY WILL COME BACK STRONGER THAN EVER. TARIFFS WILL BE SCALED BACK AS MORE DEALS ARE MADE.

What is the chance of retaliatory tariffs escalating so much that the stock market crashes another 30%, and Trump backing out from his own plan and looking like a loser in the process?

This would be a total win for foreign nations like Canada, EU, and China.

His own base can't take liquidity disappearing from the system at this rate. Another 40% crash from the stock market and we will be in a deep recession.

1/15 As of April 2, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order imposing a minimum 10% tariff on all imports to the United States.

But that’s just the floor. European and Asian countries face 25–40% tariffs. Chinese imports now face a flat 54% tariff.

⸻

2/15 China responded immediately. As of this week, all American imports into China now face a 34% tariff.

This is not a trade skirmish—it’s a full-scale global trade war. And here’s what it really means for the U.S. economy, jobs, and your cost of living.

⸻

3/15 The official goal? “Bring American manufacturing back.” The real-world effect? Most economists agree: this won’t revive U.S. industry. It’ll just make everything more expensive while delivering minimal job gains at extreme cost.

Let’s break it down.

⸻

4/15 Let’s talk cost per job created through reshoring under these tariffs: • Auto industry: ~$850K/job • Textiles: ~$650K/job • Electronics: $1.1M/job • Semiconductors: $1.5M+/job • Agriculture: net job losses due to retaliation

Not exactly a win for working Americans.

⸻

5/15 Why so expensive?

Because U.S. labor, compliance, and facility costs are much higher than in Asia, Eastern Europe, or Mexico. Even with tariffs, companies won’t rush back—they’ll automate more or shift to non-tariffed regions (e.g., Africa, LATAM).

⸻

6/15 You’ll pay for it, too. Tariffs act like a tax on imports. That means: • Clothes: +15–25% • Phones, laptops: +20–30% • Cars: +$2,000–$4,000 per unit • Groceries: +8–12% (from retaliatory tariffs)

⸻

7/15 Economists estimate the average U.S. household will pay $3,500–$4,200 more per year because of these tariffs—primarily through higher consumer prices.

That’s the equivalent of a stealth tax increase for every working family in America.

⸻

8/15 So if the policy is: • Wildly expensive per job • Bad for consumers • Likely to cause a global recession

Why is Trump doing it?

The answer probably isn’t economics. It’s politics, ideology, and power. Here’s how.

⸻

9/15 POLITICS: Tariffs are great for optics. Trump can say:

“I’m fighting for American workers. I’m standing up to China.”

Even if no jobs come back, the appearance of action sells—especially in swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.

⸻

10/15 IDEOLOGY: Trump and his inner circle (e.g., Peter Navarro) have long believed in economic nationalism.

To them, global trade is weakness. Dependence is dangerous. Sovereignty > efficiency.

Even if that means higher costs for Americans.

⸻

11/15 STRATEGY: Trump may see this as a pressure tactic. • Hurt China’s exports. • Weaken the EU. • Force companies to relocate. • Push allies into renegotiating “fairer” bilateral deals.

In this view, chaos = leverage.

⸻

12/15 PSYCHOLOGY: This is also about control.

Tariffs are one of the few economic tools the President can use unilaterally. No Congress. No Fed. No WTO oversight.

Trump gets to look strong, look decisive, and wield power in full view of the public.

⸻

13/15 The scary part?

This policy may not be designed to succeed economically.

If it triggers inflation, unemployment, or retaliation, Trump can always blame: • “Disloyal companies” • “Globalists” • “Foreign cheaters” • “Deep state economists”

⸻

14/15 So what’s the bottom line?

Trump’s tariff war will likely: • Cost billions in lost GDP • Raise prices across the board • Create few real jobs (and at massive taxpayer cost) • Spark global economic retaliation • Leave the average American poorer, not richer

⸻

15/15 If this was ever about improving the economy, it failed before it began.

But if it was about optics, control, and power, then maybe it’s working exactly as intended.

We aren’t just watching a trade war. We’re watching a performance—and every American is footing the bill.

⸻

Sources: 1. Peterson Institute for International Economics – estimates on cost per job from 2018–2023 steel and auto tariffs. 2. Brookings Institution – studies on the downstream consumer impacts of protectionism. 3. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) – manufacturing job data and multiplier effects. 4. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) – prior reports on the 2018–2020 Trump tariffs. 5. World Bank & OECD – trade elasticity and retaliation impact models (used to estimate agriculture losses). 6. CNBC, Bloomberg, Financial Times (2025 reports) – coverage of the April 2 EO and China’s retaliatory response.

And how much % are we up to date since this article from 2018?

I understand that the tariffs would affect the stock market and things would dip a bit but this is absolutely insane. Our corporate economic health has been grossly inflated and overexaggerated by cheap import goods and cheap overseas manufacturing that it feels like we are gonna see a total crash just because of increased taxation on import goods(market is doing a lot for something that we havent even seen the impact on yet cause it was just voted on). The valuations we are about to see are what these companies would be valued at in the 1st place if they werent making RECORD PROFITS year over year by cutting wages and hours and outsourcing tech support to the east. Too much profit overreach. Not enough genuine stability and all this outsourcing and wage slashing has put the average worker in a deficit where the only way out of the rat race was to become a god tier options trader otherwise they will never be able to retire.

I was regularly trying to get all my extra cash each month into the market, shit started looking funky when the treasury issues were coming up so I just decided to redirect excess funds into collectibles investments and I'm pretty pleased with the results so far.

Still keeping 401k contributions maxed, I stupidly maxed out my Roth at the beginning of the year and took a hit on that already with the market.

I don't plan to keep buying too many collectibles from here, but at least these have held or even appreciated in the last two months.

I think we should all get on this lady’s post and convince her to let her husband trade full time 🤣📉

https://youtu.be/1ts5wJ6OfzA?si=medDcrWcjRT2V5pR

I'm just a lurker here but seems like everyone is freaking out. Saw this video and thought I'd share to see what everyone's thoughts are.

His love for Russia and Putin, his desire to end free markets and trade and his goal of raising taxes higher than anyone in our lifetime. Long live the Republic of America!!!

Do you think jobs will come back to the US ( now ROA). It took decades of gutting trades, unions, electrical infrastructure… we are not capable. They don’t have a clue of how much retraining and hard infrastructure that needs to be built. If they did they would have phased in the tariffs over 5 to 7 years.

already too much winning ? :-(

Do you think biggus dickus or whatever minion ChatGPT’d the export data forgot to normalize it? I mean those penguins are ripping us off, man.

Surprised by the relative magnitudes of the respective adjustments in both markets. The macro in Europe appears more favorable than in the US( less inflation, no impact of US tariffs on Euro CPI) and yet the drawdown in the US was much less than the European correction. Furthermore the US average P/E was already stretched when compared to the European one. Conclusion ( I think others will do the same analysis during the week-end): Beginning next week, I expect further correction to take place on the US equity markets while we should get some significant rebound on the European markets at some point during the week.😅🔥

It seems this has become an anti-Trump circlejerk and doesn't actually have an interest in talking about trading

🤔🤔

Since Donald Trump announced new tariffs on Wednesday, the markets have gone down. These measures are already being compared to the protectionist policies of the 1930s. And if we look at the situation through the lens of classical 20th-century economic thinking — whether Keynesian or Milton Friedman’s free-market perspective — such actions appear self-destructive. The so-called “liberation day” proclaimed by Trump smells more like economic lunacy, something that might be better explained by psychologists than by economists.

However, there is one economist whose work is particularly relevant today — Albert Hirschman. In 1945, he published a book called National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade. For decades, this work was largely ignored, in part because it contradicted both Keynesian and neoliberal frameworks. But now, amid a new wave of trade conflicts, its importance is being re-evaluated.

Hirschman, who had survived the trauma of the Spanish Civil War and Nazi Germany, began to study autarky when he arrived at the University of California, Berkeley. He used the disastrous protectionism of the 1930s to build a framework for understanding economic coercion and the use of hegemonic power — the academic term for economic bullying. His analysis was largely ignored by trade economists at the time, as it didn’t align with dominant schools of thought.

Interestingly, his ideas later influenced antitrust policy. Economist Orris Herfindahl used Hirschman’s concepts to create an index to measure corporate concentration, which was later adopted by the US Department of Justice.

Had Hirschman been alive to witness Trump’s Rose Garden announcement of his new tariff strategy, he likely wouldn’t have been surprised. While neoliberal thinkers often see politics as a derivative of economics, Hirschman saw things in reverse. He argued that “so long as a sovereign nation can interrupt trade with any country at its own will, the contest for more national power permeates trade relations.”

From his work, we can draw three key conclusions: 1. Over-reliance on a single major trading partner is dangerous. Smaller countries become vulnerable when they’re too dependent. We need tools to measure that vulnerability. 2. The core of American hegemonic power today is not manufacturing — it’s finance. While China controls key supply chains, U.S. dominance is built on the dollar-based system. Trump’s tariffs aim to challenge another hegemon (China), but his financial policies aim to defend the existing dominance. This matters for other nations trying to respond. 3. Hegemonic power is not symmetrical. If a bully controls 80% of a market, it holds near-total power. But if that share drops to 70%, its influence crumbles quickly, as alternatives start to appear.

This also helps explain why the U.S. has failed to control Russia via financial sanctions. And we may see this pattern repeat globally if countries respond to Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy by accelerating development of alternatives to the dollar-based financial system. Bullies only seem invincible — until they aren’t.

Is this analysis discouraging? Yes. But it shouldn’t be ignored. And if investors and policymakers are seeking optimism, they might find it in Hirschman’s outlook. Despite everything, he remained a lifelong optimist — or a “possibilist,” as he called himself. He believed that people could learn from history to improve the future.

Trump is ignoring that lesson — with grim consequences. But no one else has to.

That’s why I believe that a transition to a new currency and the attempt to escape the dominance of the dollar make sense. Cryptocurrency could be a strong alternative, especially in times of instability and geopolitical pressure. This is an asset worth considering for potential future growth — despite all the political headwinds.

Turns out it was Stock prices.

This time, it was entirely self made. Like u can put a monkey in charge, that dosnet have a clue and dosent do anything and the market still wouldnt have tank like it did now.

U have to be a special kind of stupid to screw up the markets and economy that is already doing well by default, so as long as u dont touch or mess with it.

Imagine if u worked in the private sector and if u screwed up 10% as badly, causing the company to lose money, u would have been fired long ago. And yet this orange dude is still able to do what he's doing.

Sidenote: Why does the wallstreetbetsELITE logo look like that orange turd?