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Are you going short on RDDT on monday? If yes, why?

Trump Says the Market Will Boom Despite Selloff

In a stunning and completely unforeseeable turn of events, the President of the United States, who repeatedly campaigned on a promise to implement tariffs, has now implemented tariffs, sending shockwaves through Wall Street and leaving financial analysts dumbfounded.

“This is unprecedented,” gasped CNBC market strategist Les Foresight, eyes bloodshot from staring at a red-tinted stock ticker. “Who could have possibly predicted that a politician might do exactly what they said they were going to do? We priced in literally every possible scenario except this one.”

The tariffs, which were outlined in campaign speeches, policy briefings, and at least 47 different rally chants, took investors completely by surprise. Major financial institutions, staffed by some of the world’s most educated and well-compensated individuals, have responded with sheer panic.

“Markets hate uncertainty,” explained investment guru Sandra Holbrook, pausing to wipe sweat from her forehead. “But they really hate it when things happen exactly as they were explicitly promised to happen. We much prefer when politicians lie to us so we can hedge accordingly.”

Despite years of open threats regarding tariffs on imported goods, some experts insist there were no warning signs.

“The administration telegraphed this move for years, but like, in a boring way,” admitted Bloomberg columnist Derek Lyons. “If they had announced it via Elon Musk tweet, maybe we would have paid attention.”

Retail investors, meanwhile, have reacted with predictable confusion. “I dumped all my stocks because a headline told me to,” confirmed Robinhood user and recent high school graduate Kyle Henderson. “Then I bought them back five minutes later when another headline said the tariffs ‘might not be so bad.’ I’m up $3.42 today.”

As the dust settles, economists remain divided on whether this situation could have been foreseen. Some believe that if financial experts had simply listened to the President’s public statements, they might have prepared accordingly. Others maintain that the only true predictor of government action is reading the entrails of a sacrificial intern at Goldman Sachs.

At press time, markets were in turmoil again after learning that interest rates are, in fact, still a thing.

Wiiiiinnnn

https://www.ft.com/content/8ba439ec-297c-4372-ba45-37e9d7fd1771

https://www.lawyer-monthly.com/2025/04/hedge-funds-margin-calls-tariff-crash72961/

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14574029/hedge-funds-margin-calls-donald-trump-tariffs.html

Since WSB and Stocks reddit won't let this post stay up because they are afraid of the market panic. I will try to post this here. This is a fucking big deal. We're looking at a black Monday.

Wall Street Meltdown: Trump's Tariff Sparks Hedge Fund Bloodbath.

Hedge funds are facing Lehman-style margin calls as a market crash triggered by President Donald Trump's tariffs raises fears of a looming 'Black Monday.'

The significant decline in the market has compelled hedge funds to liquidate assets, with prominent Wall Street banks requesting additional collateral following a sharp decrease in the value of their holdings, according to insiders.

There is growing apprehension about a recurrence of the catastrophic 'Black Monday' that occurred on October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 22.6 percent, marking the largest single-day percentage drop in history.

This situation arises as a 10 percent global 'baseline' tariff was implemented late last night, affecting all U.S. imports except those from Mexico and Canada. By April 9, approximately 60 trading partners, including the European Union, Japan, and China, are expected to encounter even steeper tariffs tailored to their respective economies.

Margin Calls and Market Mayhem: Hedge Funds in Freefall

In the wake of Trump's tariff disruptions, several major banks have issued their largest margin calls to clients since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. The magnitude of these calls, spanning various sectors such as technology and consumer goods, has raised alarms that the aggressive sell-off may persist into Monday. Margin calls can trigger a detrimental cycle, as selling stocks to fulfill these calls can further depress prices. On Friday, gold prices dropped by more than 3 percent, reversing earlier gains from the week, as investors were compelled to sell bullion to offset their losses.

'Rates, equities, and oil were all down significantly… it was the broad market movements that caused the scale of the margin calls,' one prime brokerage executive told the Financial Times.Wall Street Meltdown: Trump's Tariff Sparks Hedge Fund Bloodbath.
Hedge funds are facing Lehman-style margin calls as a market crash triggered by President Donald Trump's tariffs raises fears of a looming 'Black Monday.'
The significant decline in the market has compelled hedge funds to liquidate assets, with prominent Wall Street banks requesting additional collateral following a sharp decrease in the value of their holdings, according to insiders.
There is growing apprehension about a recurrence of the catastrophic
'Black Monday' that occurred on October 19, 1987, when the Dow Jones
Industrial Average fell by 22.6 percent, marking the largest single-day
percentage drop in history.

This situation arises as a 10 percent global 'baseline' tariff was
implemented late last night, affecting all U.S. imports except those
from Mexico and Canada. By April 9, approximately 60 trading partners,
including the European Union, Japan, and China, are expected to
encounter even steeper tariffs tailored to their respective economies.
Margin Calls and Market Mayhem: Hedge Funds in Freefall
In the wake of Trump's tariff disruptions, several major banks have
issued their largest margin calls to clients since the beginning of the
COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. The magnitude of these calls, spanning
various sectors such as technology and consumer goods, has raised alarms
that the aggressive sell-off may persist into Monday. Margin calls can
trigger a detrimental cycle, as selling stocks to fulfill these calls
can further depress prices. On Friday, gold prices dropped by more than 3
percent, reversing earlier gains from the week, as investors were
compelled to sell bullion to offset their losses.
'Rates, equities, and oil were all down significantly… it was the
broad market movements that caused the scale of the margin calls,' one
prime brokerage executive told the Financial Times.

Server Messages - https://imgur.com/a/0RtYGkM

(btw i added the messages because i barely use reddit and some people were clowning me on earlier posts. figured this would help show i was already calling it near the top of spy in march. i posted about it a lot in the server i’m in, so it’s not hindsight. being skeptical is fair, but the timestamps are there.)

not here to hype fear or act dramatic. i’ve built a macro-based signal over the years. it’s not about price patterns, not moving averages etc it’s a mix of economic indicators that tend to shift before real downturns start to unfold. it doesn’t show up often because the conditions it tracks just don’t come together like this very frequently.

it’s only triggered a few times in the last 20 plus years:

early 2000 before the dot-com collapse
november 2007 just ahead of the great financial crisis
mid 2015 before the 2016 earnings recession
november 2019 right before the covid crash
and now late december 2024

i didn’t sell during 2022 or 2023 despite all the noise. inflation, rate hikes, fed panic, whatever. everyone was yelling recession but my signal stayed quiet. and that told me those pullbacks weren’t the real deal. and they weren’t.

actually thought trump coming back into the picture might throw the model off. figured maybe the policy shifts or volatility might break it somehow. but no, if anything it’s proving the signal right. it’s not about politics. it’s just the structure underneath everything that’s starting to crack again.

the signal triggered back in late december. and now here we are, april 4th, and it’s fully live. i think the downturn is just getting started. based on the timing of previous signals i expect this could run from now through mid 2026, maybe even early 2027. this doesn’t look like a dip. it looks like the beginning of a full deleveraging cycle just like the ones that followed every other time this flashed.

holding spy puts for 2026 at the 330 strike and others depending on the premium . i’ve also got long dated puts on carvana and arkk and a bunch of other bloated growth names. all puts and sqqq montly calls. will post the positions if needed, i’m only day trading in this environment, with the occasional swing call when something really lines up. i’m not out here dumping everything or screaming the world is ending. just being realistic. if this model keeps doing what it’s always done, then it’s probably smart to be looking at downside protection right now. puts, hedges, whatever works for you.

for the chart itself, it’s not a single model. it’s pretty much a blend of macro indicators i’ve followed over time (few years now) and how i’ve come to piece them together. i’ve got an econ background, so naturally i’ve built my own view on how certain data fits. nothing complex or dramatic. just patterns that tend to show up before major cycles turn. how it’s put together is still interpretation at the end of the day, and i get not everyone will see it the same way. but it’s showing the same alignment now that’s been there before bigger moves in the past.

the chart’s themselves are based mostly on core economic indicators like liquidity, credit spreads, forward earnings, all the stuff that usually starts shifting before the actual cracks show up. the yield curve stayed inverted all the way through late 2024, which was the longest inversion since 1929, and every major downturn since the 50s followed that same setup. credit spreads started widening again toward the end of 2024, hit the highest in over six months, same thing we saw before 2000, 2008, and 2020. the ISM manufacturing index was under 50 for 26 months straight by december 2024, longest streak ever in the data. unemployment also started to turn, went up about half a percent from the cycle low, which triggered the sahm rule, and that one’s never missed a recession. all four of these flipped again in late 2024 but i incorporate more views of course, same as they did before every major breakdown in the last 25 years. some of the metrics are forward-looking or projected, in such I expect the fed to cut to near zero around early 27’. most of this is also relying on intuition from studying econ and tracking this stuff for a while .

not here to call tops or stir panic just sharing what i’m seeing based on how this has lined up in the past. trade safe out there.

(also posted this on other subs and got replies saying iust showed up out of nowhere and i dont ever talk about investing on reddit etc. not every post is tied to this signal, but if you check my history you’ll see, i just don’t post unless i feel like something actually matters.)

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1i4ifs3/comment/m7vgzel/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1jh9rzm/comment/mj5low0/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1i5wk8e/comment/m89k9ua/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1i3oahu/comment/m7rndx6/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

🥹😭

If you have capital to invest, now is the time to START building a list of stocks that you have done due diligence so you are comfortable with owning them after the market begins to recover. You will never get the lowest price, but you need to know --and follow-- a few stocks to be prepared to pull the trigger with some confidence. And if your well-researched stock picks go lower...and you have the risk tolerance to average down... you have that ability.

I did this in March-June 2020 and in 2022. Never perfect, but I knew what I owned and did some great trades and still own a few with "house money".

Buying Energy Transfer ($ET) on Monday. Dropped on Friday and I expect those gaps to be filled to the upside. A 8% dividend makes it even a better deal with the next ex-dividend date May 7. ET was over $21 just a couple of weeks ago. Transporting LNG and oil through its huge pipeline network.

$RCAT has no tariff issues...because this military drone company recently was awarded an US Army contract for their drones --and they cannot have ANY components come from China. The stock had already come down from a high of $15...and the shorts piled in...but the shorts are covering (Check the short interest out....44% reduction in short interest between 28 Feb and 15 March). Now at $6/share and an upcoming Shareholder Town Hall Meeting in the next week, this one is worth doing some DD on.

Margin calls have made forced selling happening with little regard to individual company fundamentals. There are opportunities for good trades out there.

Good Luck this week.

Source: https://x.com/weakinstrument/status/1908251973356576895?t=qaWTOtBfWJTpHTP-FZ2S3A&s=19

A lot of people are confused about why the current Republican administration would be willing to crash the economy for these dumb tariffs. I've seen Redditors proposing various ideas for what they think is The Plan, trying to get all of this to make sense. They think surely it must make sense somehow because he has people like Musk around him who they think are smart.

Then I've also seen other people saying there is no plan. He just likes feeling powerful, he likes that tariffs are something he can do unilaterally (in truth he actually still needs Congress' consent, but the Republican Congress spread their cheeks for his dick long ago), and that's the extent of it. No plan, just a narcissist and whatever impulses or crazy ideas he wakes up with that morning.

If you look at the current facts and the Republican party's history and ideology, I actually do think there's a plan. It's just not one anybody's currently talking about, not publicly anyway, but it is a plan that has the benefit of making sense given everything we know.

The first thing to understand is this is not happening in a vacuum. As the administration is raising taxes on everyone, particularly the poor and middle class who spend a disproportionate amount of their income on now-tariffed products as compared to the wealthy, they have also been talking in the background about eliminating federal income taxes for people and corporations. Just Google 'eliminating income taxes' and you'll see many recent articles about figures in the administration talking about this. So they effectively want to get rid of income taxes and various other federal taxes and replace that tax revenue with tariff revenue instead.

But here's the thing about tariff revenue - it tends to naturally go down over time. As many have noted, tariffs incentivize domestic production of previously imported goods, which reduces import volume over time and thereby reduces tariff revenue. Another way is that tariffs incentivize smuggling, misclassification of goods, and other forms of evasion that erode the revenue base, especially when combined with reduced government oversight due to layoffs and downsizing. There are more reasons than this but you get the idea. Tariffs by their nature encourage their own dwindling returns.

So we'd be replacing a reliable revenue source that grows over time, income taxes, which even if you leave at the same rate nonetheless grows in dollars with inflation and economic growth, with one that instead dwindles over time and could even all-but disappear eventually.

Which brings us to Republican party ideology and a tactic they pioneered many decades ago known as 'starve the beast'. Google it. In the case of this analogy, the government is the beast. This strategy dates back to the Reagan era. The basic idea is, Americans don't easily give up their government. Eliminating what they call entitlements, your Social Security, your Medicare, that would be politically unpopular, right? But what you can do is, every time you're in office, you lower taxes. And then again. And again. And again. And you never, ever, vote to raise them back up.

So the idea goes, eventually, the government, starved of money, will simply have to downsize, right? Eventually we just won't be able to afford programs like Social Security and Medicare, and the Republicans will take no blame, they'll just say we have no choice but to tighten our belt now. From their perspective, they can finally get the citizens off the government's teat, and they'll probably manage to blame the Democrats for the whole situation to begin with using their right wing media machine. It's a good plan.

But here's the thing. It's been 45 years since they started this plan, and instead of tightening the belt, we've just decided to go further and further into debt instead. The day they pined for, that they long envisioned, has just never come. It probably would eventually come if they kept up this strategy, but it's taking much, much longer than they ever expected, and in the meantime we just keep going deeper into debt.

So now, Trump and his cohorts have found a new strategy. Get us off steady revenue, shift over to a source that's basically disappearing ink, they'll finally collapse the entire federal government and we'll live in the pure corporate oligarchy conservatives have long been trying to move us into. That's the plan. If they have to crash the economy to initiate it, so be it.