r/investing • u/ExtentFuture4133 • 3d ago

China retaliates with 34% tariffs on all US products

At the time of writing this Dow futures are losing 1400 points. Apple is down another 4.77% pre-market to $194, as it has 90% of iPhones assembled in China.

S&P 500 futures are down 3.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 4%. Us 10 yr at 3.905%. Vix volatility index spikes to 42.82, highest level since Covid

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

It is going to be an interesting day.

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u/Watch-Logic 3d ago

China’s exports to the US are something like 14% of total exports so it may hurt but they still have that 86% they can rely on. Of course the situation is much more complicated but I think they have room to one up. At some point things will get bad enough that American people will start protesting and China knows that too

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u/Canucklehead_Esq 3d ago

China is only the crest of the wave. Much worse to come.

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u/Frostivus 3d ago

China is the quickest to respond because they’ve spent 8 years preparing for this since the first round of tarriffs.

All the other countries have been blindsided. Only the EU has the domestic base to react, but they risk alienating their most important security partner.

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u/GrandPapaBi 3d ago

Technically Canada was first... haha

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u/[deleted] 2d ago edited 2d ago

[deleted]

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u/Kung_Fu_Jim 2d ago

That has not happened. The senate passed a bill to do it, which needs to go through the house, where it could still fail because Republicans, and then the golfer in chief can veto it.

Senate would need 2/3 to overcome the veto, which would require like 15 more to grow a spine.

Not going to happen.

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u/Sarcasm69 2d ago

Why don’t they just ask chatgpt how to respond?

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u/MissingNo700 2d ago

"Oh magic conch shell, what do we need to do to get out of this?"

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u/Liatin11 2d ago

man, did spongebob predict AI? :O

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u/nonamenomonet 2d ago

“Do. Nothing”

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u/MrCockingFinally 3d ago

Given how unreliable that security partner currently is, and the fact the only credible threat to the EU currently has its hands full, I see no reason why the EU shouldn't drop the hammer hard.

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u/Particular-Way-8669 2d ago

Of course there is. The reason is the same as to why EU does not have military capacity nor funding to support Ukraine as it needs without US in the picture even 10 years after that war started.

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u/tranqfx 2d ago

Just a reminder that US recently fought the Houthi rebels and is clearing the path for trade to resume to the EU through the Suez Canal, because the EU didn’t have the capacity to handle the situation. Seems like the US is still an ally.

What’s strange is for decades (mostly democrats) in the IS have complained about uneven tariffs. Until this new move EU has far higher tariffs on US goods than the reverse. How’s making it level unfair?

As for china, Nancy pelosi was complaining about the US imposing a 2% tariff on china while they had a 35% tariff on US goods in the 90s.

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u/andruby 2d ago

until this EU has far higher tariffs than the US

Can you cite a source? I see there’s high tariff on dairy and agricultural products, but the weighted average tariff is 3-4%. That’s not a lot.

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u/tranqfx 2d ago

Good question. So if we take cars for example, Germany (EU) imposes a 10% tariff on US goods, US imposes a 2.5%

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u/specter491 2d ago edited 2d ago

Asking countries to pay into NATO what they agreed to pay in does not make us the bad guy.

Edit: EU bois are big mad at my comment.

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u/MrCockingFinally 2d ago

A) Ukraine is a US ally. USA is actively trying to sell out Ukraine to Russia. That makes USA the bad guy.

B) Ukraine losing will be horrible for peace and security in Europe, as it will send a clear message to Russia that imperialist conquest works. USA is actively trying to force Ukraine into a losing position. That makes USA the bad guy.

C) Trump commented that they might sell a dumbed down version of the F-47 to allies, inzcase they aren't allies any longer in future. That makes USA the bad guy.

D) Trump is threatening to invade NATO allies, specifically Canada and Greenland. That makes USA the bad guy.

E) As of 2024, the vast majority of NATO hit the 2% spending target. Certainly ever county bordering Europe. So kindly stop lying.

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u/Tarzzana 2d ago

edit: I had a response written and deleted it because it’s just so exhausting debating this stuff with someone who very clearly doesn’t understand it at a fundamental level

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u/Pytheastic 2d ago

It's not that they don't understand it, they pretend not to so they make people annoyed enough to respond. At this point I have to assume anyone making statements so easily disproven must be trolling.

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u/Even-Watercress9024 2d ago

It’s not that, they just repeat everything their Orange Buddha says as they’re incapable of thinking for themselves, believing that when they die, Donald will be there waiting for them and will suck them off for eternity.

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u/Warthog_Orgy_Fart 2d ago

They love doubling down.

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u/SkiingAway 2d ago

NATO is already spending at the level they agreed to, so what are you talking about?

And if you try to change the topic to "it's not enough", I'm going to call you out for moving the goalposts.

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u/spsteve 2d ago

That's not what anyone is talking about, so stop with the red herring. And no one 'pays into' NATO (beyond basic administration costs). The fact you'd even phrase it that way shows how you don't understand what is going on.

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u/Aquatic-Vocation 2d ago

America has let it slide because they enjoy being the single global military superpower. The world isn't going to stop you from backing down from that position, but we are going to frequently remind you how short-sighted it is.

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u/specter491 2d ago

We don't enjoy footing everyone's security on taxpayers money. EU enjoys free healthcare and other social welfare programs while we're over here shoveling money into NATO and the DoD to protect EU. That's not fair.

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u/half-baked_axx 2d ago

The US already spends more on healthcare than any other nation on Earth. We just love giving most of it to imbecile middle men also known as the insurance industry.

We enjoy the prosperity and economic power that we have today because of global trade and a healthy geopolitical balance. Isolating ourselves is stupid. No matter what you say.

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u/Pale_Entertainment23 2d ago

Yeah, EU forced the US to put military bases all over the world. We would be a utopia if it werent for our allies. /s The US is currently the biggest superpower that does whatever it wants and does it for its own benefits. Lets not pretend the US is some paragon of virtue that has not used its military to advance its trade interests please.

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u/SkiingAway 2d ago

EU enjoys free healthcare and other social welfare programs

That's just because the EU doesn't have the world's least efficient healthcare system like the US does. (and doesn't hate it's population + the concept of government services).

The US spends so much more on healthcare as % of GDP, that if it only improved to being the 2nd worst country in the world for healthcare spending, you could double the military budget if you wanted and have money left over.

The problem in US healthcare is not a lack of money but a lack of efficiency.

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u/MichiganRedWing 2d ago

How ill-informed can one get?

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u/Left_of_Center2011 2d ago

He’s certainly going for the record of ‘how many nonsense Fox News talking points can I cram into one post?’

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u/Aquatic-Vocation 2d ago

EU enjoys free healthcare and other social welfare programs while we're over here shoveling money into NATO and the DoD to protect EU. That's not fair.

Maybe you guys should figure out why your government spends more money per capita on public healthcare than other countries that actually have public healthcare?

I think Americans really need to recognise that the rest of the world embraces social programs because it's cheaper than if everyone pays privately. Like roads, right? The public roads you enjoy driving on and want more of are a classic example of socialism.

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u/Rakeit-in 2d ago

I agree that's not fair. But that's not why EU is angry. EU is rearming because right now we don't know if the US is a friend or an enemy.

There is a world of difference between working together to solve problems and encouraging those EU countries to contribute more, and threatening them with annexation. When you threaten another sovereign state people react strongly, then they don't care what's in their economic best interest, they care about being free and ruling themselves.

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u/not_nisesen 2d ago

Who let the stupid person in?

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u/spsteve 2d ago

You understand those bases and your military are the ONLY reason you're the reserve currency and if it wasn't for that the debt load your country is carrying would crush the value of your currency to about 1/10th of what it is.

You understand that AMERICA is the biggest beneficiary of being the world's police, and you do understand that it all started so AMERICA could make money off it right??? Right??? Why the fuck do you think they fought communism. The commies didn't want to invade, they wanted to block your capital markets. It's always been about money and solely for the benefit of America. Pull your head out of your ass and learn some history.

Edit: You also understand that military spending is NOT why you don't have health care. You pay more for health care than ANY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD PER CAPITA. Again it's corporate greed backed by shitty politicians... that's why you don't have health care.

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u/Even-Watercress9024 2d ago

I hate to break it to you, but even if all of Europe contributed 200% to NATO, you still won’t be getting any free healthcare.

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u/scramgeezer 2d ago

Americans too

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u/LionelHutzIsDed 2d ago

Poland is paying over required 2%, our trade balance is pretty even and atill we got hit with 20% lmao. USA bois kinda dumb

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u/superurgentcatbox 2d ago

Also unlike the EU they don't need to coordinate between several different governement representatives.

Germany is already going "Aw maybe we can negotiate..."

You can't negotiate with this guy because he doesn't understand business. He thinks a trade deficit is a ripoff just because it's a trade deficit. What sort of deal are they hoping to make here? We gift you cars and instead you lower the tariffs to 15%? Get real.

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u/n05h 2d ago

I think the EU will continue focusing on own products and further expanding their options from other countries, similarly to what Canada has been doing. Which seems quite effective.

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u/Alone-in-a-crowd-1 2d ago

It will be 20% tariff Im sure - match the US tariff. Markets will tank even more.

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u/Disastrous-Present-8 1d ago

The EU has a 109 billion deficit in services to the US. It seems that instead of imposing tariffs on products, they are focusing on services. If Trump does not end the trade war with the EU within the next week, I expect bigtech shares to rocket down.

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u/Alone-in-a-crowd-1 23h ago

It’s funny because all of these stupid tariff numbers are based on goods, not services. With Canada, they have a trade deficit on goods of about 50B. Take oil (which is sold at a discount) out of the mix and there is no deficit. Add services in and they have a big surplus. These guys are just cherry-picking the figures that they want. Services would be a good target worldwide.

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u/readthisfornothing 2d ago

The signal group chat must be blowing up right now

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u/JeNiqueTaMere 2d ago

Anyone that's been blindsided at this point hasn't been paying attention. 

It was clear this was coming and we (Canada) have been warning you. 

Sadly Europe chose to remain silent when Trump kept threatening our sovereignty and attacked us economically, and now they're in the same position

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u/Frostivus 2d ago

Europe was on Canada’s side.

The problem is that EU is spineless, slow and loves to bicker internally. People blame Orban a lot but even without Hungary, the EU are delusional. A month on and no coalition of the willing. No one willing to put boots on the ground for Ukraine. Countries are bluffing their military GDP contribution. Even now they are blaming China for their woes, and picking fights. Anything but addressing the big orange elephant in the room.

Without a coordinated response, the US wins.

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u/justablueballoon 15h ago

One victim blaming the other victim is not helping. Blame the perpetrator.

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u/Mr_Pricklepants 2d ago

That's "their most important former security partner."

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u/slowwolfcat 2d ago

yeah they are like picking up their ass from a slumber, stretched yawned and go "k...here we go again buddy..."

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u/hug_your_dog 2d ago

but they risk alienating their most important security partner.

This reads like a joke after the shenanigans that the Trump admin has been doing in the direction of Europe about Ukraine, Greenland, US troop presence and support to Europe etc. Did you miss the whole series of EU and European summit on this topic which were discussing European defense without the US?

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u/Frostivus 2d ago

The US is still doing intelligence runs for Ukraine.

Don’t ask me, bud. The EU is still delusional and trying to negotiate with the US. Poland just bought more jets. Germany still wants those jets.

The EU is all bark no bite when it comes to the US. Nobody is willing to go to war against Russia u less they have US backing and tech. So here we are.

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u/tommyminn 2d ago

This. Many people in the west don't understand China. They can wait for long time to plan the retaliation.

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u/Thyg0d 2d ago

And while EU can respond they have more members to think about with different priorities/wishes it takes longer. Even if they are prepared with the "tariff bazooka" which already have been negotiated and agreed but since they adversary lacks basic understanding of who this works the response need to be... Well, overly clear, and the EU needs to think for the other party as well. Despite the response will be with 3rd.grade math involved.

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u/Death_Metal_Fan 2d ago

Hate to tell you this bud but nobody is relying on US security anymore, apart from Israel.

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u/_coherence_ 2d ago

That security partner seems to be taking advantage of the current situation to extort negotiate resource deals in return for supporting wartime loot ....and threatening to annex European territories by any means necessary ...and endorsing far-right parties in the hopes of breaking up the block.

EU is complex and frustratingly slow to kick off anything, but things are being set in motion for un-partnering and will be hard to reverse.

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u/Useful-ldiot 3d ago

The bigger problem is because we're also pushing tariffs on everyone else, we're setting up a potential isolation. Our partners will go to each other and try to cut us out.

Thankfully the US is still a GDP powerhouse and countries will be forced to trade with us, but it's going to really hurt the end consumer (Americans) for a while because you can't spin up local manufacturing in a quick period. This is probably the beginning of a 5-10 year lull assuming we stay the course and don't try to rekindle these trade alliances.

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u/_Gobulcoque 3d ago

because you can't spin up local manufacturing in a quick period

You can't spin it up if you think tariffs are going to come down in four years time. Suddenly your business will become uncompetitive. Even if you don't think they'll come down in four years time with a change of executive, Trump is so unpredictable, there could be a tariff change tomorrow that makes you uncompetitive overnight.

Why would you invest in manufacturing in the US right now with such unpredictability or inevitability around tariffs?

It doesn't add up.

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u/TerminalObsessions 3d ago

I think that's essential. Even if you hit me in the head with a brick enough times to make me a true believer in tariffs, I'd still tell you that they cannot work under Trump. His defining trait is erratic, knee-jerk reactions. Nobody can have confidence that he won't change his mind in two years, two weeks, or two hours. Who is going to build a goddamn factory on the foundation of his whims?

Relatedly, I believe this is the same reason we haven't seen a one-day catastrophic crash in the markets. Everyone is still hedging their bets. They're selling, but slowly and in bits as bad news keeps coming. The market isn't yet convinced the tariffs will stay, or we'd be down 20%.

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u/Acolyte_of_Swole 2d ago

The complete lack of any solid, long-term, sustainable planning (from Trump) all but ensures no business will invest the 5 or so years to bring a factory here when they could instead just charge higher prices for 4 years and wait for the next president to reverse everything.

The more power Trump gives to the executive branch, the more power there will be for the Dem president who comes after him. Which is not a good thing overall but it does amuse me.

I said elsewhere that Trump's position on tariffs would ironically be much stronger if he actually were a dictator-for-life, because then these other megacorporations would have to play ball to get access to the American market. But the way things are right now, they don't have to at all. They can wait out the pain and they'll feel that pain much less strongly than ordinary citizens will.

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u/Financial-Society937 2d ago

First time huh? No dem president will get that privilege. Congress will suddenly decide to "take their constitutional role seriously" once a dem gets in

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u/Qs9bxNKZ 2d ago

Apple disagrees. SoftBank disagrees. Those are stated to contribute $1T to building out facilities in the US.

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u/Acolyte_of_Swole 2d ago

Then you should disregard me and buy tons of apple stocks.

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u/Useful-ldiot 2d ago

I would imagine the play is pretty straightforward.

Enormous tax breaks to corporations willing to invest in the local economy.

The tax breaks + deferred losses from the investment will create very favorable tax situations for corporations to make huge gains while not paying for it.

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u/Warthog_Orgy_Fart 2d ago

Don’t worry. We’ll get to 20%. And probably very soon.

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u/Solid-Lab7984 2d ago

I think this has to be something that Musk and the other billionaires want and what they profit from. Otherwise they'd do something to make Trump stop.

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u/TerminalObsessions 2d ago

Unfortunately, I believe that's giving folks way too much credit. Most of the billionaires, like Trump, are complete morons. On top of that, they have no reason to care. They can lose 95% of their wealth and still have more than they'd spend in ten lifetimes. A recession or a depression means nothing to them.

This also oversells their influence. Trump is easy to manipulate, but he's hard to control. It's simple to whisper an idea and convince him its his, but damn near impossible to force him to change course. While I have no doubt there's panic within the GOP, I don't see that they have an easy play. Tariffs are Trump's signature policy. How do you convince him that he can back down now, save face, and not look like a total clown?

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u/advester 2d ago

Another reason for no total pull out is where else are you going to put your money? This can destroy the global economy, not just the US. And just holding cash is bad from the stagflation this will cause.

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u/Daveinatx 2d ago

Today's products are far more complex than 1950. Even washers can now have IoT connectivity. What this means is that every product has a BOM (Bill of materials) containing subcomponents. Modern supply chain management is global, and needs contracted components for stability. Without that stability, the entire product is at risk.

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u/ITwitchToo 2d ago

I'd love for IoT connectivity to go away as a consequence of the stupid tariffs.

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u/tomoldbury 2d ago

Even if you ignore IoT crap, take a modern washing machine for instance. The microcontroller and power electronics components are likely to be made in the far East where fabs have been set up for decades. These are dirt cheap components and there is a lot of competition in the market to bring the price down. You can move the production to the USA but instead of $1 it's now $5. And it takes 5 years to build a fab. Multiply that across all of the integrated circuits on one circuit board inside the product and your BOM cost has just gone up by $200. So now your formerly competitive $600 washer is now $1,000, once the higher margins that distributors are going to want are accounted for. Demand for the machine plummets. A machine made in Europe and imported for $400, even with a 30% tariff, is more competitive as a result.

Trump has basically killed US industry by doing this. A softer tariff might have been understandable. Tax rebates for investing in US factories maybe. 54% on China? You gotta be kidding.

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u/ITwitchToo 2d ago

Oh yeah, I get all of that and I fully agree.

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u/WingedGundark 2d ago

There is also the fact that even if manufacturing would flow back, the costs of industrial production would be higher in the USA than what it was in a country of cheaper labour. The big benefit of free trade is that it allows economies to specialize and evolve. Things are produced where it is most effective and economies can move to producing more advanced goods and services. This has happened everywhere in the 1st world.

The whole idea of using tariffs to try to wind clock back is incredibly stupid. You practically want to switch the productivity potential of the country from high value products and services to producing lower tier and less specialized stuff that also can be manufactured elsewhere by cheaper and by less educated and trained work force. Even after the migration your cost structure will be much worse compared to those manufacturing countries, so your production costs will be higher than the competitors and you fail to attract export markets. At the same time, your productivity is wasted on this low level manufacturing.

All this means that even in the best scenario, prices will be signifcantly higher, your exports aren’t improving, if not worse, as you gradually lose the edge competing on high value goods and services.

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u/jayc428 2d ago

Great points. I’d also add that at this rate of the ongoing shit show, democrats will be back in charge of congress and can end this tariff shit in 21 months from now. So even more of a point as to why you wouldn’t invest the capital. Companies are going to go into cost cutting mode and preserving cash.

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u/SkiingAway 2d ago

Probably not, Trump would veto it and they're not going to have the margins to override a veto in the Senate on their own.

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u/jaymef 2d ago

No but what you can do is lie and say we are going to spend X billions of dollars setting up shop in America. Get favourable deal from Trump because he gets nice headlines then never come through with it

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u/RiffsThatKill 2d ago

You can spin it up if you have a centralized command economy and a lot of resources and labor force like China did prior to 1979 during the Mao protectionist "great leap forward" days. I dunno if we want that? Lol.

Plus, we aren't starting off as peasants and we're also deporting cheap labor, and gutting the state that we'd need to enact government programs to initiate onshore production.

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u/hug_your_dog 2d ago

You can't spin it up if you think tariffs are going to come down in four years time.

This is almost literally what the CEO of Snap On said today either on Bloomberg or MSNBC (can't remember which, I listened to both). The fact that there is massive uncertainty whether these tariffs will even hold in a few years is already a deterrent.

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u/_Gobulcoque 2d ago

This is almost literally what the CEO of Snap On said today either on Bloomberg or MSNBC

I would like to take this opportunity to confirm that this is not the smurf account for the CEO of Snap On.

Thank you for your attention.

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u/Watch-Logic 2d ago

This is more than just the tariffs… Trump has spin a tsunami of boycotts against American products in Canada r/BuyCanadian and Europe r/BuyFromEU. If people don’t think this will turn into a recession they are fucking deaf and blind

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u/jeffreynya 3d ago

when they talk about manufacturing, what do they really mean? Just Auto, chips or what. If the USA has to build factories to produce every single plastic part or product its just not possible in any meaningful timeline. I can imagine factory's that have to try and build 1000's of different items are not just simple thing to setup. It took decades for some stuff to move away and it will take decades to bring most of it back, it will cost trillions and in that time everyone will just stop trading with us for all but essentials we can only provide, and that list is getting smaller every day.

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u/Acolyte_of_Swole 2d ago

We're putting assloads of tariffs on everything, including things we cannot produce here. There's no thought put into it.

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u/tomoldbury 2d ago

Tariffs on avocados; famously grown in the USA.

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u/advester 2d ago

He has stated that he longs for the days when the govt was paid for with tariffs, not income tax. Tariffs aren't a means to him, they are the ends.

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u/Useful-ldiot 2d ago

You can spin up full scale manufacturing relatively quickly, meaning 5-10 years. But yes, it will cost a lot to do so.

1) the consumer will pay that cost in price of goods sold.

2) the consumer will also pay the increased cost while the new manufacturing centers are built.

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u/rice_not_wheat 2d ago

I question whether or not it can even be done. US is already at full employment and is making it harder to move here. Who's going to work in these factories, and who's even going to build them?

Why build a factory in the US just to face trade barriers on inputs? Build in Mexico, get the labor, and avoid the trade barriers.

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u/mnradiofan 2d ago

And you'll continue to pay that cost as long as it's 5% cheaper than the alternatives.

But most companies won't even begin that process without assurances that this climate will continue for 20-25 years so they have time to recoup their investments.

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u/Equal-Ruin400 2d ago

It’s something we have to do. The world is getting more dangerous, and war is just around the corner. It doesn’t make sense for the US to rely on its enemies for manufacturing.

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u/jeffreynya 2d ago

It’s not possible to bring back everything. The chips act got use going on chips and we could have made a great deal with Canada for minerals. But no, we just punch everyone in the face and say fu. It’s all so stupid

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u/Equal-Ruin400 2d ago

The US doesn’t make anything anymore. We only export services. This can’t continue, drastic measures need to be taken considering there may be a war with China this decade over Taiwan.

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u/TapSlight5894 3d ago

Its gonna continue to hurt because american labor will remain expensive so the products will be more expensive, the raw materials will be expensive , we dont even have the electricity to support reindustrialization.

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u/Alone-in-a-crowd-1 2d ago

That’s where the invasion of Canada comes in.

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u/theJigmeister 14h ago

I actually don’t think American labor will remain expensive. I think part of the game here is to give companies a reason to lay off millions, driving unemployment up to depression-era levels, and depressing wages so far that American workers become hirable for bargain basement wages. The oligarchs, I believe, are salty about the worker gains during Covid and still want to punish the poors and claw back their personnel expenses to a degree we haven’t seen since the robber barons. Threaten their profit margins and wrestle some economic power from them and they will come back with hellfire and crush the entire populace. They still are the dominant economic group and it isn’t even close.

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u/Gator1523 2d ago

countries will be forced to trade with us

Will countries be forced to trade with us, or will we be forced to trade with them despite exorbitant tariffs?

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u/iagovar 2d ago

The US exports oil and gas, software, and services related to capital.

Oil and Gas is something everyone relies on, software is difficult but not impossible to replace, services related to capital are difficult but not impossible to replace.

Everyone is going to get hurt, but the US leaves everyone else no choice.

A sizable chunk of my saving are invested in US companies though ETFs, but if begin to get this BS I'm basically forced to move it elsewhere, with less returns and more risk. But it's not like I have a lot of choice.

If using american software is problematic, then I'll move to something else. It's a pain in the ass but what choice do I have.

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u/Gator1523 2d ago

I'm sure Canada would love to replace the US in selling oil and whatever other natural resources the rest of the world needs. They're getting hit by American tariffs anyway.

As for software and the like, those entrenched institutions are, in my opinion, the last thing that will hold the US economy together. So you're right that the US will make money from big tech and keep that money within its borders instead of buying stuff. That's the real band-aid that will hurt to rip off for the rest of the world in my opinion.

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u/Acolyte_of_Swole 2d ago

They have an entire world of other countries to trade with. Or they can just pass the cost along to us in the form of a 30% price hike. Since we don't actually make anything here, we don't have domestic alternatives. We will be forced to eat that price increase, as you said.

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u/w1nn1ng1 2d ago

Not only that, but in theory these are a likely maximum of 3.5 year tariffs. The next president will likely pull back all these tariffs and only leave some legitimate ones in place. Meanwhile, the global market will find ways to deal with the pain outside of the US. While the US consumer is the most powerful in the world, they aren’t a necessity for the majority of countries who could pivot to other nations.

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u/rice_not_wheat 2d ago

America's at full employment and actively trying to deport its unskilled labor. Even if they want to, there's not enough people to spin up more factories. It'll be easier to just move more of those manufacturing jobs overseas to avoid input tariffs.

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u/Useful-ldiot 2d ago

I would love to see your source for the US being at full employment.

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u/Spuckler_Cletus 2d ago

It’s going to help consumers of the stock market. This pullback is an absolute gift to those of us pushing down the home stretch.

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u/pbecotte 2d ago

The whole point of tariffs are that domestic manufacturers can raise prices without being undercut by foreign competition. Even if we DID have the excess capacity, and even if the tariffs didn't affect the costs of raw materials at all, prices would still go up!

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u/mrbowow 2d ago

Surely the next president will undo all of these changes?? Am I being too naive...

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u/nockeenockee 2d ago

Hopefully the world steps up and does not capitulate to this bully garbage.

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u/SunDevils321 3d ago

We’re 26% of the world’s GDP. Not so easy just for others to cut us out immediately.

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u/MrRyanB 2d ago

Give it a couple months. Your 26% means fuck all of no one wants anything to do with you.

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u/zibdabo 3d ago

American people to start mass protesting...I somewhat skeptic that will happen...

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u/ibluminatus 3d ago

oh I mean the government workers fired have been, tens of thousands of them have been let go and now we've tanked our tourism industry and now we're tanking our economy. What jobs and where are those people going to work? Mortgage defaults, missed car payments, and credit card payments are all going up higher and higher.

This type of train wreck isn't a fast one. It's just a slow roll that will keep wrecking and wrecking and it'll keep reaching more and more and more people. Its just too early to feel the effects of it. I think once the effects are more widespread, since factories and manufacturing will take 5 - 10 years to build up. We'll absolutely see more unrest.

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u/zibdabo 3d ago

I hope your right coz the damage just keeps escalating real, real fast, I mean daily. I feel there's almost 0 presentation of any US protest on reddit.

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u/YoupanicIdont 2d ago

So far the stock market has taken the brunt and it's been about a 2 month period of volatility. We're here on r/investing so we think everyone should be aware that real damage has been and is being done to the US economy.

Probably a majority of the country has either no idea what's going on in the stock market, or thinks it's just rich people losing money. It will become real when prices for everything rise and/or people start losing their jobs.

This is not an overnight process. Recessions and depressions are never one day events - like all bad things just happen and that's it. They roll and everything just keeps getting worse. The 2000-2005 stock market was one rug pull after another.

Everyone knows 1929. Few know that 1932 was when the bottom was put in. The market was up from the October 1929 low in May 1930. There was hope of a quick recovery. It obviously didn't happen. The stock market began to rise from 1932 on (with extreme volatility), but the underlying economy was still very shaky.

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u/mnradiofan 2d ago

Even if you look at 2008, few people know the pain STARTED in 2007 (probably where we are now) wasn't broadly felt until fall of 2008, and we didn't hit bottom until late 2009. From there, it took about 4 yeas just to get back to 2007 levels.

We were probably already on track to feel that same trajectory BEFORE tariffs, if I had to guess by June we'll start to really feel it, and by fall it will become a fever pitch. But that largely depends on how far this escalates before calmer heads prevail. Unfortunately, even if they do now, a recession is baked in as we are now hated around the world, and certain changes (that won't be reversed easily) have already been made (IE Canadian boycotts).

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u/YoupanicIdont 2d ago

That's true. And the Fed was predicting slow growth but no recession in the fall of 2007. The Treasury Secretary was saying the same. They were both dead wrong, of course.

This from NYT on November 8, 2007:

Stock prices, which had plunged Wednesday, went on a roller-coaster ride after Mr. Bernanke testified. The Dow Jones industrial average first fell 205 points by mid-afternoon, but then clawed back most of the way and ended the day at 13,266.29, down just 33 points.

Testifying before the Joint Economic Committee, the Fed chairman said that the two rate cuts in September and October “should” be enough to keep the economy from slipping into a recession. Without being specific, he reinforced statements by other Fed policymakers that the economy would have to show signs of stalling out entirely before they would reduce rates again.

Asked if he saw any risks of a recession, Mr. Bernanke demurred. “We have not calculated the probability of a recession,” he responded. “Our assessment is for slower growth, but positive.”

The Fed chairman’s stance was similar to that of Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. At a meeting today with editors and reporters of The New York Times, Mr. Paulson predicted that the crisis in the mortgage and credit markets would hurt growth but not lead to a recession.

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u/Pessimist001 2d ago

This has to be one of the quickest falls in 2 days I have seen in a very long time. Then again, markets have gone up almost straight line for the last 2 years so it's kind of like popping an overinflated balloon. But yeah, in a matter of two days, an entire year of S/P gains is gone.

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u/theJigmeister 14h ago

There were pretty sizable protests just yesterday, whether they are reported on or not

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u/zibdabo 10h ago

❤️ fuck Trump and Elon.

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u/mk2-0 2d ago

There's also 0 representation in congress and senate too. Yes the voters elected him but I think people are about to have a massive change of heart now that they see how radically unstable he has become. No one voted for him to invent his own economics

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u/creepy_doll 2d ago

The last time there were tariffs and isolationism like this it led to the Great Recession and (less directly) ww2.

It is sad to see the same mistakes repeated. History is important

1

u/ibluminatus 2d ago

That's the part that makes me a bit more nervous honestly. I really hope they aren't doing this to condition aid and wages on military service so they'll have bodies to fill the bottom of the pacific for the war with China that only they want to happen.

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u/Watch-Logic 2d ago

don’t forget the wave of boycotts against american products in our closest allied countries r/BuyCanadian and r/BuyFromEU.

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u/Pessimist001 2d ago

USA will create jobs for credit card delinquency, more collections people - might as well spend 100K at one of our wonderful universities for this so you can make a grand total of 30K a year, given it is the industry of the future.

The country has become a joke onto itself.

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u/w1nn1ng1 2d ago

We’ve already seen far more protests than previous regimes. Every state capital has protest every other week at this point. As the pain gets felt more and more by average people, it will pick up. Trump is alienating every one in this country besides the rich…that’s not going to go over well.

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u/Acolyte_of_Swole 2d ago

American people have been protesting, and what we've seen from that is any green card holders are hauled off without due process. It's not inconceivable in the future that US citizens will actually be shipped to El Salvador slave labor camps for the crime of protesting. It's been floated already by this administration. The idea that protesting means you are a domestic terrorist and therefore have no rights.

I always see these comments about "why are people not in the streets?" And yet I see so few comments where people put their money where their mouth is. The consequences right now for protesting may very well be higher than they have been since Jim Crow. I don't blame someone who values their life more than their message.

3

u/zibdabo 2d ago

I hear you, and that’s totally valid. The risks are real, and they’re escalating. Yeah I think we can agree it’s only going to get worse from here unless something shifts. It’s a tough reality, and I don’t fault anyone for prioritizing their safety. But at the same time, it’s terrifying to think about how far things could go unchecked."

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u/SmecticEntropy 2d ago

Join a protest near you, tomorrow (April 5): About — Hands Off!

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u/Far_Addendum753 2d ago

Once the weather gets hot, people will be on the streets.

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u/mk2-0 2d ago

Sadly this will happen. I really think Trump will survive 4 years. Republican Congress and Senate will turn on King Don at some point. There is no way that people will stand by and let him destroy everything not only in the US but also across the world.

0

u/earthcomedy 2d ago

there's be a virtual protest in some video game universe.

hahahahaha

0

u/Onesharpman 2d ago

Why actually do something about this when we can all just complain on the internet?

6

u/richardlau898 2d ago

If EU decide to follow then it’s rly bad

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u/Daveinatx 2d ago

Outside of tariffs, worldwide sentiment against US products is going to hurt us for the next decade.

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u/Negative-General-540 2d ago

14% direct export, there are also a sizable portion where they ship to third countries like vietnam and Mexico to reroute to the US to take advantage of NAFTA and avoid Trump 1 tariffs. In totality export to the US is probably considerably higher than 14%. Not that it changes your point much.

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u/Watch-Logic 2d ago

great point. Chinese companies have been very clever to skirt the regulations

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u/MassiveBoner911_3 2d ago

14% incoming to US but everything is made in China here. This is gonna hurt.

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u/Irish_Goodbye4 2d ago

less than 2.5% of China’s gdp relies on exports to the US. this administration is so dumb and stupid. a total self-punch in the face by America

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u/Watch-Logic 2d ago

already established. Steve Wonder could have seen this coming

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u/WhileNotLurking 2d ago

It’s actually a game of economic and political chicken.

The question is who blinks first - or do they both pivot to shift attention away from this trade war.

The options are:

  • the American public blinks first and they protest / revolt

  • the Chinese people lose too much economic property and the deal the CCCP has with its citizens (freedom for economic prosperity) deal falls apart and the people of China protest / revolt.

  • both governments see the unpopularity of this, but refuse to back down so they draw attention elsewhere. China by invading Taiwan. The U.S. by invading Greenland.

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u/Watch-Logic 2d ago

I think it’s going to be who blinks first China + EU + Canada vs the US. So economic GDP of 19.53+$19.4+$2.3 vs $30.3. Seems like America is the underdog in this matchup.

1

u/Numai_theOnlyOne 2d ago

Amazons entirety is Chinese...

0

u/simplystriking 3d ago

You have support for this you can share? Genuinely interested in reading up on it. Also what and who else they export to. Doing some research on a move I may make.

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u/Watch-Logic 2d ago

yes, in your web browser of choice, search for “china exports to us as percent of gdp”

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u/Rustic_gan123 2d ago

China's surplus is a reflection of the US deficit, which suggests that Chinese exports somehow end up in or rely on the US

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u/Watch-Logic 2d ago

Exports to other countries account for 86% of Chinese exports relative to GDP. They don’t need the US

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u/Rustic_gan123 2d ago

China trade surplus 1 t$, US trade deficit 1.2 t$. There is no one else to balance this and this is what Trump is aiming for

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u/Watch-Logic 2d ago

ok now I see your point but I disagree with the method to rebalance