I didn’t know it was this bad. We get best ever and most evers all the time. Inflation tends to make that possible. Some Black Monday in 1805 might have lost $700 and 3 donkeys and it stands as some colossal reversal of fortune.

But we’ve posted a lot of the record breaking on the positive side. Or at least I have. Only fair we show this.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stocks-poised-for-biggest-two-day-wipeout-in-history-as-marketloses-9-6-trillion-since-inauguration-day-430919f6?&g=2bf9a483-7e6f-461a-a1f9-76fa2fe7b299&mod=djem_mwnbulletin

Roughly $11.1 trillion has been wiped away from the U.S. stock market since Jan. 17, the Friday before President Donald Trump took the oath of office and began his second term, according to data from Dow Jones Market Data.

Some $6.6 trillion of that figure was lost on Thursday and Friday alone — the largest two-day wipeout of shareholder value on record, Dow Jones data showed.

By the time the market closed on Friday, the S&P 500 had surpassed its losses from the first 75 days of George W. Bush’s first term in office — the last time stocks saw comparable declines during the early days of a new administration. The small-cap-focused Russell 2000 has seen its rockiest start to a new administration on record, FactSet data showed.

Can’t believe we’d be looking back with rosy eyes toward George W. The article is especially concerned where we enter a trade war(s) and “don’t back down.”

I don’t think anyone anticipated how bad this would get and how fast. But the market can change on a dime. Provided there is a letup on pressure. But how the hell are businesses supposed to plan and build out? Everyone is sitting on cash because they don’t know if they’ll need it just to stay afloat.

And this administration seems incapable of admitting mistake. They got plenty of experts to blame if they want scapegoats. I just don’t know they’ll reverse course. If they do, will it be fast enough to matter?

Love where we’re at. Love everyone who voted for this guy. Great plan great strategy. Tariffs on all avocados because the us will just start growing its own avocados. Turn the entire world against us. Where do we go from here. If I sell, lose 23k if I hold on I’ll lose more. So what’s it gonna be. No more dollar cost averaging. What have you guys lost where are you looking for refuge?

Edit: I invested a good chunk in energy. Believe nuclear is the future of energy (it is) but should’ve sold when trump was inaugurated. Only down about 3k of my principle, the rest were gains wiped

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

US stocks cratered on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) plunging more than 2,200 points after China stoked trade-war fears and Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of higher inflation and slower growth stemming from tariffs.

The Dow pulled back 5.5% to enter into correction territory. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (GSPC) sank nearly 6%, as the broad-based benchmark capped its worst week since 2020. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) dropped 5.8% to close in bear market territory.

The major averages added to Thursday's $2.5 trillion wipeout after China said it will impose additional tariffs of 34% on all US products from April 10 — matching the extra 34% duties imposed by Trump on Wednesday.

That ramped up investor worries that countries are more likely to retaliate than negotiate, leading to a protracted global trade war.

Investors flocked to government bonds as the 10-year Treasury (TNX) yield fell to 3.9%, nearing its lowest levels since October.

Economists are warning that with tariffs as-is, the risk of a US recession is rising. The monthly jobs report, unusually overshadowed Friday, showed a labor market that held steady ahead of Trump's biggest tariffs. The US added 228,000 jobs in March, beating estimates, though the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Powell for the first time addressed the reality of the tariffs, saying they were "higher than anticipated." He said it is "too soon to say" what the proper rate path should be. Traders have ramped up bets on interest rate cuts this year to five, as the Fed is expected to set its efforts to cool inflation aside to tackle the bigger risk of economic slowdown.

Trump, posting on Truth Social on Friday, added to fears by saying that his policies "will never change" and warning that China "played it wrong."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-plunges-2200-points-nasdaq-enters-bear-market-as-trump-tariffs-spark-worst-meltdown-since-2020-200042876.html

At the time of writing this Dow futures are losing 1400 points. Apple is down another 4.77% pre-market to $194, as it has 90% of iPhones assembled in China.

S&P 500 futures are down 3.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 4%. Us 10 yr at 3.905%. Vix volatility index spikes to 42.82, highest level since Covid

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

It is going to be an interesting day.

I seriously don’t understand how anyone on Wall Street is acting shocked right now. We — the supposed “rational actors,” the champions of capitalism — are supposed to know the ABC of economics. Literally any first-year undergrad in econ could tell you: tariffs are bad. They’re inefficient, regressive, and always end up hurting consumers and global alliances. And yet, here we are — again.

Now you’ve got Ben Shapiro and other conservative voices suddenly sounding the alarm, acting like they just realized tariffs are economic poison. Are you kidding? Trump ran on this explicitly. He implemented them in 2018. There was no ambiguity. He’s not pretending to be Milton Friedman.

And don’t even get me started on the Wall Street royalty that lined up behind him: Steve Schwarzman (Blackstone)

Bill Ackman, the guy who says he’s a disciple of Buffett

Jamie Dimon, who played the centrist game but stood by him when it counted

Stanley Druckenmiller, always talking macro while backing chaos

Even Scott Bessent, who was literally the CIO of Soros Fund Management — yes, Soros! — and still publicly backed Trump yesterday

If they couldn’t see the consequences of enabling a tariff-happy populist, then either they’re dishonest or delusional. This is not just a political miscalculation — it’s an economic betrayal. These people should’ve known better. Most of them do know better. And now they want to act surprised when markets react violently?

this am the Dow was still in the green for the last 12 months, I literally checked at 8 am. Amazingly, incredibly it got into the red due to a 2k fall

SP500 -6% over last 12 mo.

Nasdaq -5.7%

Russ 2000 -4%

etc.

All gains from the last year are now gone.

I checked my portfolio today after a couple of weeks, and oh my I am so down. I am still a novice investor (about $20k right now) and I am investing for the long-term since I am 22 years. Trying to stay positive with the stock market and will keep on investing. I also don't have a lot of free cash right now since my job is starting in a couple of months. :/

Lesson (for me): don't look at my portfolio. go paint or eat an ice cream instead.

Many people who are sitting on cash will say "I am going to buy the dip." What is the criteria for you to buy the dip with excess cash if you are fortunate enough to be in a position to do so?

For me the VIX needs to be under 20 and there has to be some sort of resolution to the current trade wars. Example. Market falls another 10% Trump comes out and revises to a blanket 5-10% Tariff. I could live with that. Or things get so bad Jerome Powell has to do an emergency broadcast ( Stimulus. ) That would be my all in cue.

Everyone is saying "dip dip dip" as if we are experiencing an overreaction to a small segment bubble.

95 years ago the US levied the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, worldwide tariffs that were designed to encourage domestic production and punish "cheating countries". This kicked off a trade war that had no small part in causing a world-wide depression.

The US has not levied global tariffs of this degree since then. Until yesterday.

What happened to US equities? After a roaring bull run during which wealth was printed and the every-day man flung money in the market it crashed. But not overnight. In fits and starts the DJI lost 90% of its value over a 3 year period.

It took 25 years for it to return to an ATH.

Trump has fired 10s of thousands of federal employees. He's spiking unemployment. He's taxing imports to the tune of 50-100%. Other countries will do the same to us. Our companies will start having mass layoffs, crushing economic activity and investment. Domestic production will not return, everyone one will be out of money to buy stuff anyways. The SH tariffs did nothing to encourage domestic manufacturing, it just made everyone poorer.

Maybe our monetary policy will prevent a Great Depression and we escape with "only" 8-10 percent unemployment, mild stagflation and the market takes 3-5 years to recover after a 50% fall.

I'd love to hear the thesis of why the market will recover or be higher in the next 12-24 months when we have a historical model staring us in the face.

We’re seeing some serious red right now, and it got me thinking—who here stuck to dollar-cost averaging (DCA) during the big COVID crash, or any other major drop in recent years?

If you rode the wave down and back up (at least until this current dip), what did that journey look like? What did you buy, how consistent were you, and how did it feel watching it rise over time?

I’d love to hear your experiences—whether you stayed the course, timed it well, or just kept buying no matter what. Let’s talk real returns, lessons learned, and maybe some confidence-building for folks who are new to all this.

WASHINGTON/BEIJING, April 4 (Reuters) - A deal to spin off the U.S. assets of TikTok was put on hold after China indicated it would not approve the deal following President Donald Trump's tariffs announcement this week, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

Trump on Friday extended by 75 days a deadline for ByteDance to sell U.S. assets of the popular short video app to a non-Chinese buyer, or face a ban that was supposed to have taken effect in January under a 2024 law.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/trump-tiktok-sale-deadline-looms-us-looks-deal-2025-04-04

According to Bankrates annual emergency savings survey, only 28 percent of Americans have six months of emergency savings. Between government and tariff impacted layoffs, people are probably struggling at worst and moving into hunkering down mode at best.

Yet, I keep seeing the response in so many finance and investing threads to buy the dip. Have we lost touch that the vast majority of Americans cant afford to buy the dip? Because it appears that the real winners in all this will be the Top 1 percent who can buy the dip.

When the dust settles, is there any way we can rebuild and reimagine a free market economy and investing system that benefits the bottom 50 percent instead of reinforces the top 1 percent? Does anyone have a favorite book or thinker who has offered such a solution?

Hey everyone,
I wanted to hear your thoughts on Powell's recent decision not to cut interest rates.

• Do you think it's the right move considering the current economic conditions?
• How do you see this impacting the markets in the short and medium term?
• Are you expecting a rate cut later this year, or is the Fed likely to hold for longer?

Curious to hear your takes—especially from those following macro trends or managing portfolios based on rate expectations.

I'll preface this by saying I'm 100% cash and waiting patiently on the sidelines to go all in on Amazon when it reaches a a certain price ( I've done this three times to amass wealth ), but if you're like me all cash, what indicators are you looking for before you enter the market ? Thanks.

*Edit sorry if this came across as gloating, or some kind of flex. I made some money during COVID and pulled out of the market back in 2023. I actually missed out on all the gains of 2024 when the stock market rallied as I had a kid and lost my risk tolerance. I'm not sure why this has caused so much hate and abusive inboxes with people going through my post history. I'd actually forgotten how toxic Reddit is, but to those of you who actually just answered my question, because that's all it was, good luck out there.

If I increase my DCA (dollar-cost averaging) and commit to riding this out for the next couple of years, is this one of those real wealth-building windows?

I started investing later than I wanted to, but I’m ready to stay consistent and focus long-term. Just wondering if this is one of those times where you can not only build real gains but also catch up if you’re behind.

Would love to hear from those who’ve been through similar market cycles—does this feel like a time to double down and stay patient?

JPM analysts say Trump’s combined tariff hikes amount to a 22% increase—comparable to the largest U.S. tax rise since 1968. As a result, the bank has raised its estimated risk of a global recession to 60%, up from 40%.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/jp-morgan-raises-global-recession-risk-to-60-as-trumps-tariffs-hit-us-growth-20250403/

What do you think about Powell latest stance?

Do you think a rate cut is still coming in May/June/July?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/powell-sees-tariffs-raising-inflation-and-says-fed-will-wait-before-further-rate-moves.html

I know times are very uncertain right now with the market but I am looking to start invest extra income from work.

I am already maxing out my 401k and that is doing well. I followed the basic advice online and diversied in large cap, mid cap, small cap, and international mutual funds.

I have a Charles Schwab account outside of my 401k and my idea is to start buying just VOO and VXUS

Is this a good plan or is there another thing or two I can add in there that is a no brainer?

Thanks yall ❤️, I feel so lost in the world of investing.

Buy low they say. I remember at the beginning of COVID I invested in some stocks and was wishing I had purchased more after the market recovered. Hopefully, the market recovers, but of course we’re in a different situation.

Are you going to invest in any stocks? If so, what are you purchasing?

Gold was on a pretty good run as the market has been on a steady fall. Now, with the tariff announcement, the market is falling off a cliff but gold is also slightly down.

I can't understand why this would make sense. Are people not looking to hedge with gold right now as they pull back?

Typically this would mean the market follows with a crash as well, such as what's going on right now. I'm cash heavy right now and uncomfortable, but I don't want to make a rash decisions. REITs? Gold? Volatility? Especially if you're young. (I'm 25)

There is heavy uncertainty about the negative impacts of this presidency in the US and globally. It doesn't seem like broad market equity is the obvious choice if you believe the foundation of the US is shaken.

Peter Thiel has long been saying globalism was bad in the Clinton era fueling growth in a bad way. To what extent sure, I dont agree with everything Clinton did at the behest of the GOP Senate and House. But sometimes once you do something there is no going back.

Corporations are already flatly saying they cannot (will not) build the infrastructure and find the labor pool to do what the mega manufacturing cities of China and other Asian countries can do even if you tariffed them 1000%.

Thiel (especially for an immigrant) seems fixated on bringing us back to the 1960s, I suggest watching any of his interviews over the last 10 years he says the same every ime any way. He wants innovation in industry and jets for some reason (he always talks about the flight time to London). And, he says it will be bad for a big percentage of the population. At least he doesnt lie about it, a generation or two are gonna get sent to the cleaners.

Who buys american debt in this scenario? Banks wont touch it. Internationals wont touch it, With the tariffs completely screwing up FX and countries use of treasuries to make trade work. Whos buying treasuries when your gonna get smoked on your 4% 10 year when it goes to 1981 18% again?

Please explain how we are not witnessing, unless some rabbit is pulled out of a hat, the death of America Global Capitalism?

edit: for those who dont know Peter Thiel is the billionaire tech investor who is alt right. He funded JD Vances campaigns and employed him at his VC for a non-job, just a fake rubber stamp when JD says hes from VC its bullshit.

edit: Trump also saying today tariffs worked in 1700-1800s lol. America was a back country, poor relative to Europe, barely regional power even in the late 1800s. We want to go back to that? We doing the cotton gin again to make clothes? We got rid of tariffs in 1918 or something so we could income tax the robber barons

last time a President controlled a Fed chair - Nixon-Arthur Burns... Nixon forced expansionary policy (like what trump wants). The result was stagflation.

I remember people during COVID were saying at the time, we have nothing to worry and that this pandemic we are smarter and will do things better and no economic collapse will happen. Fast forward a few years and now we are eerily following what happened back in early 20th century.

The pandemic back then was also followed by high inflation, economic boom, over-levereged positions in the market, pumped up stocks etc. What followed was as a market crash, USA starting to impose tariffs and even a bigger market crash that led to the economic collapse. Fascism/nationalism was also widely spreading back then through Europe as it is now starting to gain voice once again. What followed were dark times and it really makes me question why did I decide to look into this on a Saturday morning 😅.

My question is, what makes current times different? What are we doing better and are we actually doing better, as back then the average person was younger, richer(lower taxes according to some economists) and lower debt levels? Are we walking head first towards even a worse collapse or is it just too similar, but it won't lead to nothing?

It's been noted that the US retaliatory tariffs are not based on other country's tariffs, but rather the import/export trade deficit that the US has with said countries

SP500 is down 4% with consumer tech (Apple), apparel and clothing (Nike and Lululemon), and retail (Dollar General and Walmart) that source many products and parts from China down / hit the hardest

China and other countries are vowing to retaliate with their own tariffs against the US sparking fears of a global trade war and recession.

Noting the last time the US enacted sweeping tariffs through the Smoot-Harwley Tariff Act (which had lower average tariff amounts than those announced yesterday), it lead to a global trade war, reducing imports/exports, failed to bring back manufacturing jobs to the US, and caused the Great Depression. Will history repeat itself?

https://www.ft.com/content/f820e191-348c-4298-b15f-49600be843ce

https://www.china-briefing.com/news/trump-raises-tariffs-on-china-to-54-overview-and-trade-implications/