r/investing • u/ExtentFuture4133 • 2d ago

China retaliates with 34% tariffs on all US products

At the time of writing this Dow futures are losing 1400 points. Apple is down another 4.77% pre-market to $194, as it has 90% of iPhones assembled in China.

S&P 500 futures are down 3.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures down 4%. Us 10 yr at 3.905%. Vix volatility index spikes to 42.82, highest level since Covid

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

It is going to be an interesting day.

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u/floppyfolds 2d ago

Hey man, when the United States points the gun at its own head, it's a different story. Just my thoughts.

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u/ShesJustAGlitch 2d ago

This was visible from a mile away, too many people are essentially cultish with their “always hold” mentality.

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u/CJon0428 2d ago

It's not cultish when you have the entire history of the market to back up the strategy, ding dong.

What's extra funny though is everytime there's a major correction or crash you have the amateurs saying "this time it's different."

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u/SkiingAway 2d ago

As the 2nd most popular post on this subreddit right now indicates: The closest market analogue to this event is arguably the aftermath of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs.

Stock values did not recover to 1929 levels until 1954, 25 years later, which would have made them a terrible investment for many people for much of their lives.

Now, you could reasonably decide that things are different here for reason X or Y. I'm not going to argue that out.

I'm just noting that we've got a real example from "the history of the market" where stocks could stay depressed for so long that it wasn't going to come back up in a useful timespan to many of the currently working + investing population.

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u/CJon0428 2d ago

I remember these same bad vibes around peak covid where everyone was panicking and selling and trying to time the market right before we blasted off to new all time highs.

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u/boy_wonder199 2d ago

That’s fair. COVID seemed like the end of the world and it was tough to stay in. This time around, however, it just seems like the most powerful man on earth is purposely trying to tank and destroy the global economy. His tariff rates literally look like an intern out of undergrad was tasked to create an excel sheet on the morning of one of the biggest economic announcements in history.

America tariffed an island with zero population, for God’s sake. Like we hold our high school assignments to a higher standard.

How do you reconcile these dumb policies with staying in the market? If the whole economy goes to shit, the markets won’t recover until years and years down the line. The only reason markets are not further down is that there is still a sentiment that Trump may cave just a little bit. But if he actually doesn’t, then this is going to be far bigger than COVID.

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u/CJon0428 2d ago

I don't. The hardest part of investing is doing nothing.

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u/ShesJustAGlitch 2d ago

Exactly, Covid was a global event we figured out.

This is one group of extreme Christian nationalists enacting an agenda that only makes sense to them. Totally different.

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u/SkiingAway 2d ago

I'm just responding to the statement posed, which is that "the history of the market" shows that the line always goes up.

Over the very long term....maybe, but it's entirely possible to have decades of not even recovering your losses, as has been explicitly shown by history. For the timelines all but the youngest people need to achieve returns on, that has to be an actual consideration. And the best example is....the last time we went all-in on idiotic tariff policy.

You can feel that this time isn't going to turn out that bad. That's fine. I certainly can't prove it will be or predict the future. But history shows it's certainly possible to have happen in the US, and acting like it can't ever happen is IMO an unrealistic risk assessment.

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u/CJon0428 2d ago

What you're doing is essentially timing the market and has proven to be not as effective. Maybe it'll work for you this time. Maybe not. We'll see I suppose

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u/ShesJustAGlitch 2d ago

I’m not saying the stock market is doomed but this was telegraphed a mile away

Also historical precedent doesn’t mean anything, it can always change. How fast do you think the tariffs will be undone?

How much damage can be done by then?

You’re too naive to think the morons in charge aren’t that, morons. This could be the start of the US losing in ways we’ve never encountered.

Could Trump reverse in a few weeks? Sure! But the “always hold” is absolutely cult like thinking.

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u/CJon0428 2d ago

No it's statistically the correct move. Leave your political biases at the door. We're here to make money.

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u/ShesJustAGlitch 2d ago

Political bias? You mean reality? If Biden did something this stupid I’d be saying the same thing. If you voted for Trump then there’s no hope for you anyway.

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u/CJon0428 2d ago

If Biden did something like this, and you were criticizing him, I'd say the exact same thing. What's happened has happened and unless you can change it or go back in time, the best thing you can do is do nothing, statistically.

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u/ShesJustAGlitch 2d ago

Ok you voted for Trump then enjoy it

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u/CJon0428 2d ago

Maybe you should stick to your company's 2050 retirement fund if you can't handle a little turbulence.

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u/ShesJustAGlitch 2d ago

Dodged the point so yeah Trump supporter

In which case enjoy what you voted for, I pulled my 7 figures out last month so happy to wait this out

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u/Valuable_Bass_1639 2d ago

Wow, the ENTIRE history of the market, a whole 200 years?!? Woahhh that's soo long in the grand scheme of things, you're right.

The USA, and its markets, are neophytes - especially as a global leader. There is no mandate that could dictate the US will always be at the top. The entire history of civilization would say that empires rise and fall, almost guaranteed.

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u/CJon0428 2d ago

You're still wrong though. You realize that, right? This is r/Investing not r/antiUnitedStates or whatever your comment is about.

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u/Stealth528 2d ago

Yep this was not some black swan event, our president has been blatantly saying for several months he needs to make things worse before they can get better and has been cheered on by his base the whole way. He literally ran on stupid tariffs.

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u/FoxDie41 2d ago

It's just a 4 year presidency. Chill up, it will recover.