r/investing • u/waitbutwhycc • 2d ago

Most Predictable Drop of All Time

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

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u/Carbon-Base 2d ago

Even worse when they take pleasure in being right once out of countless wrongs, while we are in the middle of a bloodbath that is hurting everyone's portfolios.

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u/Gaff_Daddy 2d ago

A lot of people in this sub were pretty rude at that time telling you how dumb you were if you pulled your money in February instead of DCAing. So now that people are facing the consequences of their own actions, we’re supposed to feel bad?

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u/CelebrationNo5541 2d ago

Lol this right here. I have been catching hell from my friends/co workers for going all cash back 4 months or so ago.

Sure I missed some really good trading days. I also missed this cratering of the market...

To Gaffs point, fuk everyone who was being a dick about the most obvious thing ever coming about.

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u/Carbon-Base 2d ago

I'm not telling you to feel bad, I'm pointing out it's insensitive to pull an "I told you so" at a time like this.

Laugh at their actions, not their losses.

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u/zebra0dte 2d ago

They can say a million things then whatever turned out true they quote it as if we're idiots. 

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u/HystericalSail 2d ago

I'm not hurting that badly. My dividend growth funds didn't take nearly as much of a beating as the S&P, so I re-balanced today, selling in a taxable account to accumulate in a retirement one.

Meanwhile, my RE portfolio is looking to do well in the face of much higher costs for new construction and all this inflation driving higher rents.

That said, I did buy a tranche of S&P at the near all time highs I'm down 10% on. Win some, lose some.

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u/Carbon-Base 2d ago

Ah, glad to hear some folks are doing well!

That sounds like a very risk averse and safe strategy, good for you!

I'm hurting on some, but I've cashed out steadily since Q4 of last year. I'm not going to try and time the bottom and will park the cash in an HYSA instead.

What did you think of Powell's comments earlier today?

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u/HystericalSail 2d ago

I prefer not to have hot takes on any Fed jawboning re: any recent events.

He's saying what everyone with a bit of sense and knowledge of history is saying. There will be economic fallout, and it won't be minor. Which means he'll evaluate data as it comes in, ready to either stimulate or cool the economy. Or do nothing. Any predictions of drastic Fed action by June may be premature.

This is all way bigger than the Fed.

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u/Carbon-Base 2d ago

Powell's never been one to care about the markets anyway. Inflation is his one and only goal.

I thought the narrative folks are pushing about the rate cuts is over-ambitious. Sure, 4 cuts was a possibility last year, but right now we are in a completely different environment.

I agree that this is all bigger than the Fed and Reserve's control. But I'm glad we have a competent guy like Powell there instead of another Trump yes-man.

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u/HystericalSail 2d ago

People have brought up his caving to Trump on rate cuts during Trump's last term. My thinking is this time it IS different. Powell has the credibility for having engineered a soft landing from Covid-era stimulus inflation, while Trump is being seen as an economic wrecking ball this term. If he replaces Powell with another yes-man the bond markets WILL sell off, driving long bond rates way higher. Larger borrowing costs will then be another weight on both the economy and cost of government. People won't care how many assets Fed puts on its balance sheet, they'll view that as just a pre-amble to asset value writedown.

That said, there are signs QT is coming to an end. That doesn't mean another round of QE is imminent. I'll pay attention to what the Fed does, not what the talking heads say.

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u/Fair-Emphasis6343 2d ago

You're describing everyone in this sub....