r/investing • u/waitbutwhycc • 2d ago

Most Predictable Drop of All Time

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

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48

u/Cautious_optimism09 2d ago

As an economist myself I saw the writing on the wall, sold everything back in February when the SAHM triggered and the yield curve inverted again. I was so nervous from the first tarrif extension I wanted nothing to do with it. I sold 3% feom the top and I'll laugh all the way to the bank. I'll have money for more shoes when I need to eat the ones I'm wearing 🥳

44

u/obfuscate 2d ago

Stay at home mom?

9

u/Tough-Sprinkles-826 2d ago

Haha! I’m new to investing and it was the first thing that crossed my mind too

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u/ChaseballBat 2d ago

Right, I made the same decision. I only hope that the USD is worth anything in the next coming years.

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u/workonlyreddit 2d ago

I hate it, but I started a position in GLD.

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u/Cautious_optimism09 2d ago

We will all have worse problems if anything that consequential happens.

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u/ChaseballBat 2d ago

Oh yea... Might end up with just enough to run away from the US. Assuming any country would take an American

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u/rataferoz7 2d ago

Question, because I am in a similar situation as you. I cashed out half, thinking that perhaps I’d like to hold in the long term…wouldn’t pulling out completely leave you at a bad position when things are ok again? You’d be buying at an expensive price once the market rebounds? Note that all of these assumptions are based on a belief that the US will recover from this mess. If it doesn’t, well, no cash will save us.

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u/Martwad 2d ago

I've never understood this thought. Why do you think the people who pulled out prior to the fall will wait until all-time highs to re-enter?

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u/rataferoz7 2d ago

I don’t know, seems like a wash to re-enter once you factor in taxes.

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u/Vanman04 2d ago

If you converted your retirement accounts to interest bearing accounts you aren't paying taxes till you take the money out you aren't getting taxed on gains till the end.

You can even move them back in when the bottom start to show and all you would have done is avoid the losses.

Thinking folks will wait to get back in until things are back even is just not realistic.

I moved mine a month ago. I could move it right back today and I would have avoided huge loses even if it continues to go down.

I have no intention to do that as I think we are still in for a world of pain before we hit bottom. It I could and just hold till retirement and I would still be ahead of anyone who left their sitting there.

Meanwhile my retirement will be earning interest. Sure it's not much but it beats the shit out of throwing up my hands and eating losses hoping things turn around.

When the chaos starts to look like it's abating I will jump back in and ride it right back up.

Betting into the uncertainty going on right now just seems like an incredibly bad idea at the moment.

Even if the bottom was today it will take weeks if not months to claw back the losses we saw the last couple of days plenty of time to get back in.

As someone approaching 60 this was the easiest thing to see coming in my entire lifetime so far and the dot com bubble as an IT person was pretty damn easy to see as well. This one made that one look like wizardry to predict.

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u/rataferoz7 2d ago

Interesting, thank you.

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u/stupid_smart_ape 2d ago

I'm jealous of your prescience as well as your ability to act on your convictions! I missed the signs this time but hopefully I'll see another sign soon -- seems like during times of turmoil, opportunities to profit may arise if one looks carefully and has some dry powder

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u/JerseyCityHotDog 2d ago

As an economist myself

LMAOOOOOOOOOOO