r/investing • u/waitbutwhycc • 2d ago

Most Predictable Drop of All Time

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

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u/YT_Sharkyevno 2d ago edited 2d ago

I was talking about how I sold my whole SPY position at $600. A bunch of people here were like “only idiots try to time the market”. Fuck you, I’m up year to date.

A bunch was over valued and the president was having daily speeches on how he is going to crash the economy. Everyone was saying “he isnt actually going to do it, he didn’t last time”. After he fired everyone who stopped him last time.

I was not willing to take the risk, now all my high grad ecorporate bonds are up a good bit after everyone is now fleeing to them.

The outlook for me was that best case scenario Trump cuts taxes, and lowers regulation. This would lead to a spike until the no regulation creates another 2008. Or Trump doesn’t really do anything and the market slows down anyways because it’s overvalued. Worst case scenario, he actually does all the stuff he says and crashes the economy. I’m not willing to take the risk for those outcomes.

He ended up doing the third option and I have changed 12% losses into a 1.5% gain.

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u/Mr_Pricklepants 2d ago

I was heavily concentrated on US total stock until the end of last year and did a lot of the same earlier this year, so now my percentages are reasonably similar. As a result, I'm now sitting on $1.25M US of cash and equivalents.

My difference is that I started chasing internationals both following the numbers and for ideological reasons. As the moment, that's not working great, but it's a small play that I'm OK with and may extend as things roll forward.

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u/ALMessenger 2d ago

Dude, don’t spike the football.

Also, those folks aren’t on here - they are trying their damnedest to ignore the market