Most Predictable Drop of All Time

[u/waitbutwhycc]

I posted here right after the first crash in February “Don’t buy the dip, this is more 1929 vibes than 2001.” In response I got almost 100 replies telling me not to time the market, before it got removed by mods for being a “question” (it was not).

Literally all Trump is doing is exactly what he promised on the campaign. And virtually every economist knew it would cause a recession. Even after the crash yesterday he doubled down, saying he might add tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals too. He is simply trying to remove us from global markets, and it’s working!

Buy the dip once people start actually pushing back against Trump - no real reason to buy before that point.

[u/stupid_smart_ape]

That's what I thought during the housing market crashes -- and markets did take some time to bounce back but they did so with a vengeance. And then during COVID -- holy shit they had to come up with a new term (V shaped recovery) to acknowledge how fucking fast the market recovered.

Maybe this time, the camel's back stays broke. I wouldn't bet on it but it may be a coin toss? Regardless, every fucking time something horrible happens, the world seems to say that we're fucked for all time. And at least the previous 100 times, we've come out just fine. Trump fucking around is... sad and really distracting and shameful and unfortunate. But will it be enough to bring down the end-game American financial empire? Maybe, but likely not? I'm not sure I'll live long enough to see the total collapse of American financial hegemony... Trump seems to be hastening things but again... would you BET YOUR MONEY on it?

"There will be plenty of opportunity to jump back in" is absolutely true. But "You will be able to act on these opportunities" is not. We are human and fallible and absolutely atrocious at judging complex phenomena over the course of weeks/months/years... there is almost no certainty that an individual will have the luck/will/awareness/capital/opportunity to fully capitalize on the market downswing properly, which is why most are better served to just ride it out and add more to their portfolio periodically, when their finances allow

[u/Vanman04 → u/stupid_smart_ape]

I agree with a lot of what you said here. Especially that most folks can't or don't have the time to pay close enough attention to see the trends.

That said I bought my house during the housing crash at what I thought was close to the bottom. I still went immediately upside down. It took almost 5 years to get back to even. It wasn't quick. Most of the housing gains came in the last 5-7 years. I was and am fortunate that I could sit on it and wait it out and today I am absolutely currently sitting pretty because of it.

People who bought and held during the height of the market took closer to 8 years just to get back to even. That is before even considering inflation.

That is a long time to sit on something just to get your money back.

Now I am not currently saying that is the time frame we are looking at here but it is entirely possible that it is.

Regardless a huge chunk of people sat by and told themselves you can't time the market and let themselves lose at least a year of gains so far that could take quite some time to get back.

I agree long term, like decades time in the market is better than timing the market but occasionally the timing is incredibly obvious. This was one of those times. I still don't think we have hit bottom yet.

I think it's highly probable that Europe and a lot of other countries will hit back on these terrifs next week after they have taken the time to consider how to do it most effectively.

I think next week has a lot of potential to see another huge sell off when that is announced.

Maybe I am wrong. But if I am worst case scenario I can jump back in and pick up bargains.

If I am right then I will have put myself even further ahead of a ton of folks who couldn't time the most obvious market crash of my lifetime.

Regardless the one thing I am sure of is my money will be earning interest instead of being tied up in what is currently a chaotic market with no stability in sight.

[u/Peony_Branch → u/stupid_smart_ape]

For the highs after the housing crash one could say that the rise of VC, Blitzscaling and Social Media companies were the reason the markets reached such numbers, but what will it be this time?, AI is burning cash in a way that even Uber didn't, OpenAI can't even get SoftBank to complete their funding rounds and the final products are very undercooked, Crypto is filled with scams and also suffers the same issues as AI where they have insane hardware requirements to function, and after those two what? There is no trillion dollar business proposition like there was after the credit crunch