r/investing • u/naturalhairtingz • 1d ago
Is this wealth building time?
If I increase my DCA (dollar-cost averaging) and commit to riding this out for the next couple of years, is this one of those real wealth-building windows?
I started investing later than I wanted to, but I’m ready to stay consistent and focus long-term. Just wondering if this is one of those times where you can not only build real gains but also catch up if you’re behind.
Would love to hear from those who’ve been through similar market cycles—does this feel like a time to double down and stay patient?
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u/humptheedumpthy 1d ago
100% , this is a self inflicted stupid wound that will heal once these nutbags are out of office.
You can DCA but I think this knife will fall further and you may have even better windows to get outsized gains ahead. Maybe invest some now but hold some major dry powder in case we have a recession and you get bargain basement prices.
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u/Joshwoum8 1d ago
The issue is there is no reason to believe that things are going to substantially improve in the short term.
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u/bro-v-wade 17h ago
The issue is there is no reason to believe that things are going to substantially improve in the short term.
Watch how fast things change when Rupert Murdoch and Fox News turns on him.
I don't think people realize how quickly you drop political allegiances when someone starts fucking with your money.
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u/larry_hoover01 11h ago
Fox already tried to turn on him after J6. They lost market share to Newsmax and OAN and so they became the biggest champions of the big lie, even as it cost them $800 million in settling a defamation lawsuit. They will never turn on him.
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u/clonechemist 17h ago
Short term: 1.) courts could overturn the authority used to implement these tariffs 2.) Republicans senators are already voicing some opposition to long term broad tariffs. If markets continue to tank and layoffs/recession set in over 1-2 months, I think there will be enough internal pressure from Party and business leaders that tariffs will at least be moderated
Longer term: November 2026 elections could see a switch in Congressional power, and Congress could then limit or kill the tariffs
My current view is that these tariffs will have severe negative affects in the short term (1-2 years), but I’m still bullish on long term US equities (ie with a 20 year time window)
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u/Distinct_Ordinary_71 18h ago
I think prices are going to keep improving in the short term.
They really should add stocks to the basket of goods for calculating inflation then that can be another thing that got fixed on freedom day!
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u/HoneyBadger552 18h ago
Kindly expand on why "prices will improve in the short term". Curious towards your reasoning on this
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u/Distinct_Ordinary_71 16h ago
I think we haven't seen the retaliatory packages from many major trading nations or the EU block and then there is a good chance the US doubles down so I feel that things have a lot farther to fall in the short term. So yeah - I am hoping there will be some good cheap buys in 3-6months time.
Medium term it is hard to gauge how much the uncertainty has forced investment and deals to be postponed and what the impact of that will be on future growth etc.
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u/LeftClaim4811 17h ago
There is a reason the saying is “America sneezes and the world catches a cold”. You really thinking America can’t hold out longer than any other country? I promise you in 6 months when those countries are nearing recession and USA is not, you’ll see prices improving
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u/Falandyszeus 17h ago
Idk about that, do you really think the ENTIRE WORLD ÷ US is going to suffer harder from this shit than US ÷ ENTIRE WORLD?
"American exceptionalism" is going to have to work real hard on this one. If y'all cutting off your legs is going to somehow make us bleed to death, before you do...
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u/golftroll 17h ago
We are hurtling into a recession you dumbass
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u/LeftClaim4811 17h ago
And again, which country will break first
Apparently we’ve been hurtling into a recession since 2020. Nothing new, this shit will turn around faster than the last one, and the one before that. Don’t get your panties in a twist over such a short term and menial time. Delete your brokerage if you have to🤣
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u/bro-v-wade 17h ago
You really thinking America can’t hold out longer than any other country?
The rest of the world is already forming new trade alliances to replace our role. This isn't a waiting game, it's a race.
The EU already completely shifted away from US manufactured military vehicles and weapons. That was only step one. The longer this goes on, the taller the wall between the US and the global economy becomes.
You're talking about this like it's a hand of poker, but the problem is we're the only ones sitting at the table.
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u/LeftClaim4811 16h ago
It’s gonna be alright pal, I’ll be back in a few months to check in on ya. I promise!
For now just dca your way through it. It’ll be a-ok as it always been for USA the leading global power. Stop getting your panties in a twist and all stressed out
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u/bro-v-wade 16h ago
You'll know it's bad when you sit down for your daily four hour fox news session and you realize they've turned on Trump too.
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u/HoneyBadger552 18h ago
So many things are on the near term horizon. The biggest is Europes retaliation. Europe is unified, they are pissed, and US tech will get walloped further
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u/HTTP404URLNotFound 15h ago
The damage that is being done will take a decade at least to fix. Part of the reason that US markets and companies perform so well is that they are built on top of the hegemony that is the USA. The policies and rhetoric have pissed off our own allies who the USA have spent decades building trade, political, and soft power links. All of that work is being undone rapidly and I'm not sure if US companies will ever fully get back that.
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u/Znith 13h ago
The problem with waiting is that recoveries are always faster and sharper than people expect. Markets are forward looking, and insiders will have an information edge from political connections. If you wait you may very well miss your buying opportunity window.
If you're holding long term I'd start DCA'ing in now. Timing the bottom is impossible.
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u/Defiant-Lab6090 12h ago
This is 100% a self inflicted wound, but I think every politician and wealthy individual in the US understands this.
Take Buffet’s current position as an example. He saw this coming based off from the past indicator of Trump’s first term. His situation is twofold due to his age, and working on two situations which will make Berkshire Hathaway a lot of money.
He strategically sold positions high to time the market and buy back in low to take huge gains.
He accounted for his age and health knowing that if something were to happen to him Berkshire Hathaway would take considerable losses and they would have cash on hand to allow for a stock buyback. His confidence in Berkshire Hathaway to follow the principals and ideas he instilled in the leadership.
This is only one example of how this economic situation was artificially created to increase the wealth of those in power or with huge assets. You can DCA on the way down, but if there was ever a time to time the market it may be now since we can follow the tariff situation in real time.
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u/dws2384 7h ago
I don’t think you realize that even if a completely new administration is elected tomorrow the US has lost pretty much all trust as a world leader and most other countries will slowly form new alliances without them. The problem isn’t just this administration, it’s the 43% approval rating he still has and the deeply rooted issues creating that. The world isn’t going to wait around to be plunged into chaos every 4 years at the will of a few hundred thousand voters in swing states.
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u/dukerustfield 19h ago
Ppl make this seem like merely a market move. It s not. Market moves correct. Relationships and deals that took decades to build might be forever gone.
You DCAing is betting Trump et al don’t do anything more. The world doesn’t respond in kind, and this all blows over.
If you’re outlook is it will take decades to recover then there’s simply smarter places to put your money. This is not game as usual with historical references on deck.
A decades bull market was destroyed in days. Knowing we’re going to be in bear territory means you can reliably bet against the government and against industry and make money.
I am far ahead of those who DCAd and I wager that barring a stark reversal of policy, that gap will only grow
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u/Healthy_Razzmatazz38 15h ago
if the market went down 33% and earnings did not change we would be at historical averages, do with that what you will
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u/theproductdesigner 6h ago
I'm not making any moves until I see next Qs earnings and guidance. This could very well be a blip in the line that always goes up.
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u/therealjerseytom 23h ago
I started investing later than I wanted to, but I’m ready to stay consistent and focus long-term
Just focus on this, and being committed to saving, rather than speculate on what the market will do.
It is always a good idea to be patient and committed.
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u/nman247 22h ago
I would be cautious.
It could take years to see returns back. Play it like it’s the lottery. Maybe a few funds here and there.
A lot of people are hopeful on dips here, but they fail to factor in on time. Maybe do some research on sectors being affected less or being talked about being exempted.
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u/MrInsano424 12h ago
For those of you who never experienced a market crash before, the doom and gloom happens every time and every time people are saying "this time is different because ....". If you're in the accumulation phase of your wealth building, invest everything you can.
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u/Random2011_ 1d ago
Absolutely. I’m all chips in over the next few weeks
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u/Mr_Pricklepants 10h ago
Based on what? It makes sense that you're betting chips because that's a gambling approach, not an investing approach.
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u/Random2011_ 10h ago
Based off of an incredibly sharp knee jerk reaction from the market and my 40 year investment horizon
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u/Mr_Pricklepants 10h ago
That's great, then. If you don't need your money for 40 years, rock on. A lot can happen over that period, and some of it is likely to be good.
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u/LikeTheWind99 1d ago
I've had extra sitting in cash from a bonus. I've been moving it into equities over the last few days. Market might keep going down but regardless I just bought a ton for a discount which is my goal and it'll always go back up. I think increasing your DCA is ALWAYS a good idea as you are saving more for retirement that way, but right now would be a particularly good time because it is discount time. Remember this isn't money you need short term any way. It'll come back eventually. It always has over the last 120 years
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u/BluesFlute 23h ago
120 yrs? That’s not very long, actually. And the recent decline has yet to find a bottom. It may take awhile. At the moment, cash is king. Patience is queen. Wait for a plateau, consolidation, and then a clear upward trend. Then DCA. If you get tired of waiting, put $ in something with interest.
And then there is the notion of “always”.
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u/moobycow 17h ago
One thing a lot of people miss is that the current economic system has existed for maybe 50 years or so. The track record is much shorter than most people seem to think, and even that 50 years is generous given the recent rise of personal accounts, sovereign wealth, more active feds, quantitative easing, more global supply lines, easily hedged currency...
This is all brand new, no one has ever tried to forcibly unwind a global system that has been this interconnected.
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u/N0-Chill 22h ago edited 22h ago
We’re in uncharted waters. Destroying geopolitical relations, trade relations, eroding trust. These are not things that will flip back the moment the Trump administration leaves office. Even if he was impeached tomorrow and new leadership that was globally trusted took his place, we’ve shown the world just how susceptible we are to self-coup and the potential for recurrences looms.
The last time global tariffs were implemented (Smoot-Hawley Act in 1930) it triggered a global depression. We’re almost certainly headed for more hurt. If you do plan to DCA I wouldn’t prematurely increase your contributions now unless it’s sustainable for the foreseeable future.
Understand that the historical models we use to estimate S&P returns are based on a post-WW2 USA that has reserve currency status along with geopolitical and global economic hegemony. This may not be the case if things continue as they are. Especially given the existential economic threat of ever advancing AI and the field of robotics.
TL;DR: Make sure you have a healthy emergency fund first. The triggers that have lead to this downturn are potentially not as transitory as many believe. Make sure you are properly diversified (probably good to include some international exposure). We have no idea how long this downturn will last, it could be weeks, it could be decades. If you plan to contribute more, make sure you do so in a sustainable manner given the lack of clarity on timeline.
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u/Zanna-K 20h ago
I've been saying this same shit for days. People keep wanting to treat this like COVID or 2008 without understanding the magnitude of how things are changing. There is no MRNA vaccine that is going to return everything to normal. It's not that a bubble just popped and we're going through a correction. If the tariffs hold it is going to be a fundamental reorganization of the entire global order. Part of the reason why equities have been steadily growing no matter what the past few decades is because people just pile their money into their 401k's and IRA's on autopilot. What happens when people don't have the money to keep doing that because all their wages go toward just trying to afford basic expenses?
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u/eric5899 18h ago
I think you are giving him too much credit for his ability to commit to this policy. He is a narcissist without willpower. His whole personality is built around constant affirmation. The mainstream media is now a feed of "Trump doesn't know what he's doing." I'd be surprised if there isn't an announcement in the next couple of months claiming "I fixed everything. We can reduce tariffs now!"
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u/TDurdz 16h ago
But that that point will other countries want to strike a deal? At a certain point, bridges are burned
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u/eric5899 15h ago
I'm not saying countries agree to a bad contract. I think he will just say he beat them somehow and trade basically goes back to how it was. Like when USMCA replaced NAFTA. Different letters but not substantially different from existing policy.
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u/TDurdz 15h ago
I’m not saying that either… let’s say a week from now Trump changes his mind and removes all these new tariffs… what damage has already been done with let’s say Canada or Mexico, or Asian countries? I think we’re past the point of just going back to how it was
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u/eric5899 15h ago
Possible but when I listen to the Canadian leaders, they intentionally say things like "We love American, we love the American people...this is a problem caused by Trump/his administration." I think they will tolerate him as best they can with the hope post-Trump our relationships will revert back. I may be completely misreading the situation though. I'm an optimist.
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u/r2k-in-the-vortex 13h ago edited 13h ago
Well, imagine 2025 right at that first peak there, and now tell me what year your fantastic wealth building is going to materialise. https://www.federalreservehistory.org/-/media/images/essays/great_depression/crash_of_1929_2.jpg
For you to win out from broad market investing, the economy has to actually grow. But it's not going to do that under Trumps tariffs, and his nonsense might actually permanently damage underpinnings of the US economy, so it never recovers to the same prominence it has held for so long.
When US managed to make the dollar a global reserve currency in aftermath of ww2, that sort of opportunity only comes once. And now Trump is dead set on ruining dollars special status. That's the golden eggs laying goose that made US economy and the morons are cooking it.
Keeping the above in mind, imagine now the first graph without that windfall of the millennium.
Yes, dca, but dca into a growing economy, not into a sinking one.
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u/dr_tardyhands 12h ago edited 12h ago
..maybe. Historically, yes. But the history of stock markets isn't that long. So, the question is: is this a blip or is this something bigger. And it's very hard to say. If it's just a blip: then, yes, this is exactly the time to build wealth. If it's not, it might be like hoarding currency that won't exist in the future.
Trump is trying to do something that hasn't been done before during the history of stock market. So the historical trends aren't necessarily helpful. The tariffs have been tried before, and they led to bad times. I don't think the approach of simultaneously doing that, fucking with all of your allies, and cozying up with your previous enemies has been tried before. So, novel territory.
But for example Europe is kind of forced to stop relying on US military industry. So that part of the stock market is likely to have a bad time. It doesn't even matter if democrats win the next 10 elections. That's probably going to have second and third-order effects on the US economy.
Same might go for Tech but on a longer time-scale. Everyone in the world is cursing themselves for having any kind of reliance on US tech today. They'll be working on getting rid of it, and the trust is not going to come back. This means that there's limited ways for the US big tech to grow.
I don't know. It certainly looks like the worst thing I've seen in my lifetime of 40 years, so personally I'm waiting a bit to see how things start playing out.
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u/Kingkongcrapper 9h ago
Look back at the history of recessions and market crashes. Crashes don’t happen in a day. They on average drop over 14 months. The market has been dropping since mid February which means we are at the beginning. Covid was an extreme outlier.
Stocks in deep recession take a half decade or more to recover. Let things settle in bonds, gold, and treasuries until the economy shows signs things are coming together. We haven’t even had our big fraud collapse yet. In every big crash the frauds are exposed and the market takes another dump. Patience is key.
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u/Infamous_Ad8730 1d ago
NO one still alive has been through this kind of self inflicted (by one person no less) "market cycle" as you say. THIS one is completely unprecedented.
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u/TacoInABag 17h ago
How was 2008 not self inflicted? Trump could just flip a switch on tariffs. In 2008 you couldn’t just flip a switch and unwind all the odd shit mortgage backed securities banks bought. That bubble was truly a monster.
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u/moobycow 17h ago
I suppose the main difference is you had people trying to fix things in 2008 and you have people trying to break things in 2025.
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u/Infamous_Ad8730 14h ago
The dummy has destroyed our standing in the world and few countries will now trust us and take our word and do business here until he is gone and no longer shooting from the hip.
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u/MisterMysteryPants 15h ago
Do you think the world will suddenly reinvest knowing that the bloated gasbag could flip them on again? You think other countries had trust issues with the US over their politics, try fucking with a nation's money and see how well they respond now.
That's a big whoopsie that is hard to come back from.
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u/dws2384 7h ago
In 2008 every country in the world didn’t have a grudge against the US, it wasn’t threatening to annex its allies daily, making alliances with Russia or have an administration steamrolling congress and running the country with executive orders. They aren’t the same. No sane person is going to throw money into the S&P for its historical stability without thinking about the past few days it for a long time.
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u/buried_lede 13h ago edited 13h ago
Feels different to me right now because the drop is due to actions the president is deliberately doing and he’s just getting started. He may look at the Fed next, who knows, so as someone who has DCA’d during down turns in the past, I’m much more cautious right now.
Some of my fear: will it transform the landscape so much that I will experience catastrophic losses? Which companies will matter?
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u/NoobChumpsky 13h ago
If the economy takes enough of a dump for long enough we're entering the "if you have a job you're ahead of the game" phase.
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u/Mr_Pricklepants 10h ago
I hope you do some wealth building by buying in now. That'll help me get out from under my remaining dividend-focused US stock funds before earnings start cratering. I didn't trust Trump, but even I didn't expect him to be so brazenly destructive to the US economy.
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u/HoneyBadger552 18h ago
No. When multiple regions of the world are down because of self inflicted policies from the US, its not time to DCA. Its more harmful to DCA and catch a falling knife. Wait for a bigger drop or event then buy in bulk
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u/mngu116 17h ago
Too much doom and gloom guys. It’s always like this when things go south. The ones that won in the past were greedy when others were fearful. I believe countries will start wanting to work together (including us) to avoid meltdown of economies. Now Trump needs to be less of a narcissist and more of a businessman to get others to negotiate. His attitude is really what stinks the most. He can do what he’s doing with a bit more charisma.
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u/HerezahTip 15h ago
You want him to be more of the businessman that bankrupted alot of his companies and propped the rest up with fraud? The US will not recover in his term.
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u/mngu116 15h ago
I generally believe he wants to do best for his country and he thinks that we are under leveraged in trade. He has advisors with him 24/7 and I’m hoping there is a negotiating side of him that will come out through this to come out ahead in the long run. I wouldn’t bet against the American economy and DCA’ing at this time is not a bad idea. There are so many things that could happen that could make the market optimistic again from here. Feds could slash interest rates, companies could start expansion in US to make carve out deals in these tariffs, Trump could state that he is open to negotiations with countries again, you want to bet against everything and say we are all going to the poor house? This isn’t the 20s and 30s. We are much more connected and have tons more technology to get to better times faster. Not saying it will be overnight but recovery will be faster than the depression.
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u/HerezahTip 15h ago
I don’t think you live in the same reality if you think that man has anyone but his own interests in mind. He famously disregards his advisors because he believes he always knows best, and he famously doesn’t read his Intel briefings as the commander in chief. The bright side of that naivety is that you must be a happier person than most.
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u/instantpig0101 13h ago
I think he will always do what's best for himself. He has surrounded himself with yes men. Social anthropologists are saying we are seeing a fundamental shift in economic model, which looks like mercantilism. A fundamental switch has the potential to permanently change growth trajectory (from 10% annual growth to 5% annual growth in stocks for example).
With that said, I do think you are right about our interconnected world being different from the 20s and 30s, and we may have a shallower depression and "recover" albeit with slower average growth rates. And I do think Trump will cut deals wherever he can have a personal enrichment win (money or bragging rights).
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u/trumpsmoothscrotum 17h ago
Probably yes. But it may be 1 month or 1 decade.
Either way, im a buyer.
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u/bro-v-wade 17h ago
If I increase my DCA (dollar-cost averaging) and commit to riding this out for the next couple of years, is this one of those real wealth-building windows?
I think so. I was brand new to investing in 2008, and I believe I started my first 401k at the start of the Obama administration. Being younger, I followed the "take on risk" strategy and invested in a SPY fund, and later added a Nasdaq one. Having that head start was really nice, and being too inexperienced (or lazy) to know how to hit the pause button as the doomer rhetoric built up volume was also a blessing.
I have used that guiding principle with my long term investments ever since. Will it continue to work? Who knows. But I ain't stopping.
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u/mochibobba 16h ago
if you have extra money start DCA-ing into non-US stocks/ETFs... sooner or later the US will live in a silo
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u/BraveOrganization421 16h ago
Hard to predict. Stay with your strategy of remaining consistent. DCA to bring down your average every time there’s a downswing of 10%. This will decrease your average. What is not clear are the products you are investing in..
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u/kkkenny913 15h ago
No one knows, market is risk off right now. Personal opinion is that more pain to come. As of now other countries retaliation to US is not known also it's still unclear about US interest rate policy going forward. I'd leave what I have in the markets but not thinking about adding it in yet.
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u/Adept_Mountain9532 20h ago
focus on value investing and everything will work fine.
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u/aerodeck 17h ago
What does that mean
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u/KeinSeemann 12h ago
Dont invest speculative. Invest in companies that will keep their value after the dust settles.
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u/Toastx3 1d ago
Every one keeps saying “this time is different! One man is ruining everything! We have never seen this!”.
Remember world war 1? We had never seen that happen, and guess what? The stock market recovered in two years.
If you need your money within the next 5 years, it sucks. If you have a 1-3 decades, you just be very happy with what trump is doing.
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u/UntdHealthExecRedux 1d ago
What makes you think crashing the system that gave US markets their distinct advantage over the past 80 years is the same as COVID or even the GFC? The rest of the world, you know that rest of the world that a lot of US multinationals depend on for very large portions of their sales, now hates the United States and considers it adversarial. How do you think that markets are going to recover from that? Trump killed the golden goose, the sooner you realize it's dead and not coming back the better off you will be.
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u/Sapere_aude75 23h ago
If that's your thesis then just invest in international...
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u/Mr_Pricklepants 10h ago
It's not quite that simple. As we're seeing (and my portfolio is experiencing), the US can still bring down the rest of the world with it. Short-term, international markets are going to suffer, but it's possible that it won't be as much.
However, the rest of the world is not going to sit back and bend to the knee of Emperor Tinyhands indefinitely. The US may have a lot of leverage, but it's not infinite.
Consider how much of China's exports go to the US - less than 15%. Given the tariff spread, they'll find other markets for a lot of that. Same for the EU. The Chinese love champagne, for example.
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u/Sapere_aude75 9h ago
Of course all markets are connected. If you think this time is different for America exceptionalism, then you should just allocate to international. What you are suggesting is trying to time the market. While it can be done successfully in some cases, it's generally ill advised and most often not successfully
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u/azure_apoptosis 16h ago
Nope. This isn’t like other crashes as this is entirely self inflicted. The #1 asset US markets had was stability, and that can’t be replaced after 4 years. Hell, it may not be fixed after 40 years.
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u/BombSolver 1d ago edited 20h ago
Nobody knows for sure.
But, historically, big drops have often been good times to buy, and especially if you can continue to make consistent, regular contributions over the next months or year.