r/oil • u/Numerous_Wolf_8347 • 7d ago

Welcome to the Age of Big Oil's Managed Decline | Reuters

https://archive.ph/1qYq4
173 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

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27

u/[deleted] 6d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/Dramatic_Insect36 6d ago

I actually think they want electric cars, but powered by coal and supplied only by Elon

5

u/Jonger1150 6d ago

In 3.5 years the incoming democratic administration will revert all the regulations right back. Seems incredibly shortsighted to think Trump's out of step view on climate change continues.

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u/Dramos1975 6d ago

nope..i hope another republican administration wins again. That way the fall out from the orange cheeto's genius falls directly in the lap of republicans. let the republicans stop the next great depression and the trade isolation that will occur in a few years. let the republicans deal with it. then and only then after 8 to 12 yrs of republicans getting blamed and hammered for their sycophant tendencies to a wanna be dictator should a democratic rise should happen.

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u/foople 6d ago

It’s painful to say, but reality is only relevant if people are told what reality is. If the current administration gets enough media control to turn them all into Fox News clones it won’t matter what the real economy does, people will believe it’s great, or any ill is caused by some external enemy. They’ll happily give even more power to the dictator to solve the false problems claimed by that same dictator, and never even try to think critically.

Fox News (and its satellites) has always been the real danger, but we let it fester for decades. Trump is just the symptom and is easier to replace than people think.

1

u/Jonger1150 5d ago

Fox News, Sky News and the Daily Mail.

The English speaking world's trifecta of shit.

0

u/mickalawl 6d ago

It will be the 3rd time in a row that a recession starts under republicans, and democrats need to bail them out.

And the whole time Fox is shouting the recovery is too slow!

GOP will also massivly run up the debt here like always and then during recovery scream about thr demcorats trying to spend their way yo recovery.

Its evil- but what really hurts at the moment is its obvious and stupid. Really stupid and yet 70m fall for it.

I also don't mind republicans having to wear this one. I've come to the opinion things have to get worse before they get better.

Sadly for many that means destroying the hegemon powers of the US, dismantling democracy and making the 99% poorer, delibretly harming the environment and embrasing a pro-grift country and allying with dictstors.

But it appears we have yo allow that so we can i tell you so, and stop the flip-flopping every 4 years based on the dumbest voter base ever mobilised.

1

u/Jonger1150 5d ago

For every $1 Republicans cut from the budget with DOGE, they'll add $3 to debt with tax cuts for the wealthy.

-1

u/Resident-Tear3968 6d ago

I pray every day Americans get the dictator they want so desperately. Such a contemptible group of histrionic animals.

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u/devinhedge 4d ago

We’ve always been a rebellious lot. We are definitely getting what we deserve.

14

u/Numerous_Wolf_8347 7d ago edited 7d ago

I personally don't think it will be a managed decline with the recent announcements in huge advancements in battery chemistry, charging speeds, and cost cutting in China. It will be managed in China, and the rest of the world is going to have an oil glut very soon, and the west will have to play catch up to the BYD's of the world.

Source: https://carnewschina.com/2025/03/31/huawei-to-unveil-1-5-mw-supercharger-on-april-22-capable-of-delivering-20-kwh-per-minute/

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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula 7d ago

BYD are building a factory bigger than San Francisco.

https://insideevs.com/news/754460/byd-100-billion-huge-factory/

The economies of scale will be something never seen before in automotive history. China is already on a clear path to 100% EV adoption, developing countries will also likely be taking advantage of these cheap / low maintenance. Even countries like Colombia are at 8,5% market share and Uruguay 15%.

EU has a mandate, which will phase out ICE sales completely in the next 10 years.

2

u/Timthetiny 7d ago

Oil prices will go down and demand will go up

1

u/chig____bungus 3d ago

OPEC won't allow it until it's too late

1

u/ProtoplanetaryNebula 7d ago

That logic doesn’t work when customers switch to EVs. If they had petrol cars, sure people would take longer trips if the fuel cost is lower and demand would go up.

1

u/gc3 6d ago

Oil prices have a lower limit of the cost to find and drill for oil. To rack for oil you need a price of $100 a barrel. Maybe miraculous inventions in drilling will extend this, but when oil goes below the cost of acquisition it is not possible to drill at a profit. The long term trend is oil is more and more expensive to drill for

0

u/immortal_fuck_off 7d ago

To use your comment below, incorrect.

7

u/FencyMcFenceFace 7d ago

Oil consumption is at record highs in china.

8

u/Numerous_Wolf_8347 7d ago edited 6d ago

Their state owned oil company Sinopec is installing EV chargers at like 10,000 of their stations to try and stay relevant. Granted, 'stay relevant' is a very nebulous term in their system because their 'New Energy' laws have all but said that Sinopec will be phased out soon. That is something their state owned oil and gas companies will deal with as they shift to the new energy economy.

China's oil demand has likely peaked in the mid 2020s and will either plateau or greatly decline by 2030. This is what their largest oil company is up to: https://autonews.gasgoo.com/new_energy/70034590.html

Sinopec's revenue misses across the board except EV charging in 2024 y/y, refining margins are down nearly 70% as gasoline has entered a long term decline: https://simplywall.st/stocks/hk/energy/hkg-386/china-petroleum-chemical-shares/news/china-petroleum-chemical-full-year-2024-earnings-misses-expe

3

u/FencyMcFenceFace 6d ago

...but it's still increasing. Laws can be changed and promises/pledges are easily broken.

Like, I never understand how people are able to look at the raw data and say China is some green energy paradise with a straight face.

I'm really getting tired of the constant green washing of the world largest polluter.

5

u/Numerous_Wolf_8347 6d ago

Oil demand is already off around 800,000 barrels per day in Asia to start the year, or a 3% decline as the article below states. To ignore that building 10+ million electric vehicles per year isn't going to start having massive headwinds to the oil market in Asia (soon the rest of the world) is putting on blinders.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/asias-falling-crude-oil-imports-challenge-2025-demand-forecasts-russell-2025-02-27/

-2

u/FencyMcFenceFace 6d ago

Cool.

Meanwhile US oil consumption is down 11% from peak and still falling despite the population still increasing.

Oh, and we're phasing out coal pretty fast. China is still building new coal plants (2024 was a new 10 year high)

2

u/agenthopefully 6d ago

What’s the reason for this decline in consumption in US

1

u/Singnedupforthis 6d ago

Still falling?

2005 - 20.8

2018 - 20.5

2019 - 19.42

2020 - 18.186

2021 - 18.78

2022 - 18.86

2023 - 20.25

2024 - 20.3

0

u/Jonger1150 6d ago

China installs 3X as much solar than coal.

There's no continued fuel required for solar. It's cheap and getting cheaper. There is no scenario where fossil fuels survive this century. They will be virtually all wrapped up by 2060.

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u/Vanshrek99 6d ago

So it's not the world's largest polluter when you factor in the fact it's the world's industry base. Now if you exported back the carbon to the US and Canada. It brings on more green energy than the rest of the world combined

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u/Numerous_Wolf_8347 6d ago

So much solar power has been installed this year to date in China it's the equivalent to a large nuclear power plant per day.

https://delano.lu/article/chinas-panels-installed-globally-equal-one-nuclear-plant-per-day

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u/Vanshrek99 6d ago

It's insane. Also read an article on how the coal fired plants being built are state of the art and have been deemed secondary power source only after renewables are not able to supply. It's just insane how fast China has developed.

3

u/brintoul 6d ago

Found this article after I read your comment. Not sure it’s a good source, just found it kind of interesting: https://www.powermag.com/chinas-pingshan-phase-ii-sets-new-bar-as-worlds-most-efficient-coal-power-plant/

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u/Vanshrek99 6d ago

It's crazy how efficient it is compared to traditional coal fired generation

2

u/brintoul 6d ago

What’s the secret sauce?

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u/FencyMcFenceFace 6d ago

Ok well when you factor in the green energy in the world industrial base, then the US is even greener than the stats say.

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u/Vanshrek99 6d ago

Not even close. It's 10 years behind. And relies on China or Europe as it has almost zero domestic green energy.. wind is Europe and all solar is china.

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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula 6d ago

China's shift to EVs is happening very fast, but it's not all about environmentalism for them, they are a net oil importer and don't have any advantage in ICE technology. For them moving to EVs make a huge amount of sense. That's why you can bet they will be going all in on EVs.

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u/Singnedupforthis 6d ago

China is the most populous country and the largest exporter in the world. The people of the US are the worlds largest polluters.

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u/FencyMcFenceFace 6d ago

Lol ok tankie.

2

u/Economy-Fee5830 6d ago

Oil demand is down for transport, but up for petrochemicals, but the fall in demand for oil for transport is only going to accelerate:

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/oil-demand-for-fuels-in-china-has-reached-a-plateau

5

u/Sir_Aelorne 6d ago

only because of govt intervention

0

u/Economy-Fee5830 6d ago

Be that as it may, the government has a clear goal (get off foreign oil), and the movement now has a clear momentum.

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u/Disastrous-Field5383 6d ago

Energy consumption in general is increasing. China is still building more renewable capacity than the rest of the world combined and now generates more energy from renewables than any other single source, and have mandated that this trend will continue.

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u/bdiddy_ 6d ago

Demand is actually down. 1.9% YOY just released figure in China

-5

u/DeltaForceFish 7d ago

It will only result in americas decline. As china and other countries get off oil, they also get off the petro dollar. Which means america loses its reserve currency status and can no longer export its inflation.

0

u/ScholarNo6275 6d ago

Where do you get the idea americas reserve Currency status results in inflation for other countries? If anything, other countries buying American currency using their own monies should reduce their own demand caused inflation by reducing their own spending power.

1

u/drdiamond55 6d ago

If it ain't oil, there's always geothermal

1

u/technocraticnihilist 5d ago

Yeah yeah yeah

0

u/Utjunkie 6d ago

These magas are fucking us up. When are we going to kick them to the curb.