r/options • u/bottom_feeder_49 • 3d ago

Is there a best duration from expiration window to sell an ITM put in a violent down move.

I got lucky with the specific timing for some 5/16 QQQ puts. I've already sold enough to recoup double the total investment and am holding the last few to see where they could go. This is for fun, but is there a window as you get closer to expiration (assuming the market mostly keeps having large down days) that is optimal for highest price? (e.g. where protection costs for an upcoming expiration drives buying - again, assuming the market is diving).

ofc this is specific to my current play, but I'm also looking for any general advice. Thanks!

EDIT: not sure why I put ITM in the title, but cannot edit title now. Not ITM, but here they are (and I added another that is further out in duration, in case someone can shed light on timing that as an example as well.

QQQ 250516 P400
QQQ 250516 P340

QQQ 250815 P300

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u/RTiger Options Pro 3d ago

Optimal is only known in hindsight. Pick some price targets and go from there. Have plans for up down and unchanged. Best to think of a reasonable plan when a person has time to think. In general 45 days out is when decay ramps up.

I might suggest letting a few ride until expiration, especially because you have already recovered initial costs.

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u/SamRHughes 3d ago

I don't think we have enough examples of violent down moves in QQQ (especially like this one) to be able to tell you. A general answer for other options questions can't be given for QQQ because it would surely depend on the timing around the earnings calendar.

But basically, selling shorter-term expirations will do worse under short term rapid price movements through the strike price than selling longer-term expirations will. A longer term put will behave more like the underlying if QQQ goes up past your strike price and farther away. You'd capture more of the out-of-money upside as the larger premium evaporates. So the window you want to select should depend specifically on how you want your returns to depend on the behavior of the underlying. That's how I'd look at this question.