r/stocks • u/Jaded-Influence6184 • Feb 28 '25
Crystal Ball Post Do people think tariff implementation on Monday March 3rd is already baked in or will market take a drop when people realize it's real?
As stated in the title. Trump's tariffs come and go, but on Monday when they happen, I'm assuming it will, what do people think? Will it hit the markets as hard as unexpected changes to cost of living, or the larger than expected rate cut, etc? Interested to hear opinions on this.
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u/SilentSwine Feb 28 '25
Based on what happened last month, it will only drop when people realize it's real
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u/Jaded-Influence6184 Feb 28 '25
I'm thinking the same. But if he does back out again, I was just thinking (looking through the responses here) that the stock markets will still take some sort of hit. Such massive uncertainty of what the White House is doing can't be good. I think we're seeing a bit of that now. I wonder what the long term effects of this will be. What will stock market PTSD look like. :)
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u/surrender0monkey Feb 28 '25
Not giving advice, but I pulled out of the market completely. If his erratic decision making motivated me to get out then it’s gonna motivate a ton of other people to get out.
Staying in the market with such uncertainty is like wiring your balls up to a lightning rod in the Midwest spring thunderstorm season.
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u/faxanaduu Feb 28 '25
Guess you missed that pop today.
I get it, I'm scared. Ive rearranged a bit too. But I'm holding steady, buying into dips when I can, and playing the long game. Ill be in 13 more years.
When will you get back in? Timing that well will be exceptionally hard, things move FAST.
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u/Snoo23533 Mar 01 '25
Yea i correctly predicted the 2022 pull back and sold everything in advance a couple months and dca'd back in. I net profited but damn... that was extremely stressfull. I spld a little too soon and bought backnin a little too soon on avg. Did not enjoy the experience.
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u/faxanaduu Mar 01 '25
What are you doing this time? Ive been taking a hard look at my portfolio lately. I go from what I expressed earlier today .... That ill let it ride.... To my latest thought.... That ill sell various index funds like vgt, schg and stocks like tsm. Certainly at a loss from recent atm, but then waiting on the side for other opportunities or a new bottom. I might give it thought over the weekend. I just don't feel good about the months ahead. The stress you talk of is something I don't want because there's a lot of it anyway. Curious to hear your plan. Cheers!
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u/Horror_Scientist_930 Mar 01 '25
I feel this hard. Most days I have conviction in holding everything but there have also been moments where I’ve gotten spooked and sold some of my lower conviction stocks. Sitting in 25% cash right now. There is so much fear right now - it’s hard to imagine people being willing to pay high enough prices for stocks that can pump this thing much higher in the short term.
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u/Snoo23533 Mar 01 '25
I been concerned since the election but i dont have high enough conviction to commit entirely one way or a other. Bracing my feet with roughly 40% targetdate funds, 30% vti, 15% defensive Schd types, and 15% sgov. I dont expect a rapid and hard market crash without a better catalyst than a tariff (like maybe crypto finally goes extinct would do it). But I do think the risk/reward is rough for stocks. We might see another 2022 vibecession modest pullback this year, and if so ill dca switch the smaller positions for something more bullish. But theres just too much money sloshing around and labor productivity is sky high to exit completly. And quantum computing JUST came out, the next likely big thing.
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u/faxanaduu Mar 01 '25
Ive been thinking a lot of this too. A hard sustained crash doesn't seem likely, at least not in the way we'd expect. Huge volatility with opportunities along the way. Ive noticed large caps sinking quite a bit lately. I have decent positions in Google Microsoft and Amazon. I don't want to touch them so feel like it might be a while for them to gain what they've lost.
Im considering shifting certain indexes like schg and vgt to schd or selling into cash and waiting until they drop a bit to buy back in. Im back and forth between a lot of potential actions. I don't like the stress I feel every day from this volitilty.
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u/Dry_Individual1516 Mar 06 '25
Yeah there's a pretty low threshold for me where the stress outweighs the paltry profits I might make from trying to time this shit, or worrying about a recession.
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u/surrender0monkey Feb 28 '25
I believe there will be a market correction in the next 18 months. I will get back in when I feel like I can get a discount on stock in solid companies that demonstrate steady growth. It worked for me with Apple during the pandemic.
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u/faxanaduu Feb 28 '25
In January I loaded up on brkb. A massive amount. I felt it was undervalued and it was a good time to do so. I didn't expect this rise! That's my most recent success story.
I am top heavy with mag7 amazon Microsoft and Google. My average cost is so low ill just ride them out. But Google is in the red. So I guess im bag holding. Again, I think in 5-10years ill be ok.
I considered wiping out my vgt schg index funds today but im gonna just dca in.
I want to unload tsm next but need to wait 2 weeks to hit long term hold. That stock is taking a beating. 😥. Good luck on your path forward.
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u/surrender0monkey Feb 28 '25
Tbh, I’m loading up on Intel. Intel is insanely undervalued. They’re building state of the art fabs. They’re gonna compete with TSMC. It’s gonna be great.
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u/Busy-Soft-6209 Mar 01 '25
I would much rather hold TSMC for $179 per share than Intel for $24 per share. As an Intel investor, I would become insane within a couple of years, or even months, I mean whenever they have an opportunity, they decide to do the dum*est sh*t that's humanly possible..
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u/faxanaduu Feb 28 '25
Ive been considering that for a while. I almost bought it at 20 but passed and it shot up recently. Settled since. Im kinda locking up my money now probably so will likely pass on intel. You're feeling pretty certain on its medium/long term prospects?
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u/surrender0monkey Feb 28 '25
I think of it this way: the sugar high from T’s election is wearing off. Shit is gonna get rocky.
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u/surrender0monkey Feb 28 '25
I think Intel has been a dominant player for decades. They got their ass kicked by TSMC in the fab space and AMD on core design. But they’re not CDC. The chip fab business is a solid investment. The fabs are mission critical for the modern world. Having a gigantic US based fabrication capability is gonna help US regain dominance.
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u/faxanaduu Feb 28 '25
Do you think it will settle back down to 20 before gains? Ive been uncertain on this one for a while. Thanks for sharing your opinion on it.
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u/surrender0monkey Feb 28 '25
On another note, I misinterpreted your first sentence. I thought you were referring to my balls-vs-lightning bolt analogy. At first I was excited to have missed the lightning and thought “yep, my scrotum remains unscathed”. Then I realized you meant the market. Then I was sad.
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u/chuphay Mar 01 '25
A pop that seemed to be at least partly based on the US president openly talking about WW3.
I don’t even want to profit off things like that
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u/faxanaduu Mar 01 '25
"that seemed"
You have no idea if that's true or not.
Hope you sold your whole position in everything once it started. Put your money where your certainty, conviction, and mouth is. Did you?
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u/TheProfessional9 Mar 01 '25
Market bounced 1.5%, it's at a very high valuation. Dude has a real chance of getting back in at SPX 5k
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u/Dang3300 Mar 02 '25
Uncertainty will ALWAYS exist
"Investor": The market is going down, SELL SELL SELL
Same investor: Now is not the time to buy, market is at all time highs
Suckers like this will also ALWAYS exist
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u/srg0pdrs4 Mar 01 '25
Same...or about 90% out.
I'm honing in on scalping strategies to play this market a bit...def no holding for me right now...or anytime soon.
I read somewhere, a few somewheres, that the people that matter are banking on the economy tanking ("there will be pain in the short term")...
"Short" is subjective...and when it's a billionaire making that statement I know we have different concepts of what short term pain means. We have different time horizons.
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u/Useful_Hurry_2790 Mar 01 '25
What stocks did you leave in the market? And why?
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u/srg0pdrs4 Mar 01 '25
I maintained small positions in IBIT, MSTR, OKLO...i think they'll all recover and it's really just a small portion of my gains from the last year I left.
I'm not an all or nothing of guy... Leave a little just in case...
But there is no in case...it's pretty apparent that Trump is purposely tanking the US economy to allow the wealthy to purchase it at peanuts on the dollar. I'll wait for that and sell puts all the way down.
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u/GMVexst Mar 01 '25
Every dip gives me a boner and the corresponding rebound is the climax. I'm loving this shit
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u/Esternaefil Mar 01 '25
I pulled about 35% out. Coulda /shoulda pulled more but I can't live with regrets.
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u/Useful_Hurry_2790 Mar 01 '25
When you sell 35 %, do you sell the best performing ones or the worst performers? I recently did the same, took profits on rddt, pltr, etc. But, I also halved my positions in several underperforming stocks to balance the realized gain/ loss.
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u/Esternaefil Mar 01 '25
I mainly took from my US based holdings and held my Canadian.
I took a lot of profit, I held my under performers because I'm trading a tax privileged account so I can't harvest losses.
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u/Dong_assassin Mar 02 '25
Me too. I have a tsp and the G fund has been doing better than the market since all of this tomfuckery. I moved everything last week. I have been looking into companies that profit off of debt delinquency though because I feel like that's gonna be a good industry to be in soon.
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u/FlyingWeasel60 Mar 01 '25
Does the kit I bought yesterday from Amazon work?
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u/surrender0monkey Mar 01 '25
I suggest gathering experimental evidence. Please gather and report back your findings. For science.
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u/Valuable_Economist14 Mar 02 '25
I don’t think most people are going to get out to be honest, there’s not much else to put your money in if you want to beat inflation and at the end of the day Trump gauges the success of a president primarily by stock market performance. Also passive investing etc means you basically have zombies investing large sums of money regularly without any thought going into it
History shows it pays to stay in the market. If it helps you sleep at night sure, but to be honest for me I think I’d struggle more sleeping at night knowing my money wasn’t in the stock market (the market which hundreds of years of data proves is the best source of long term wealth generation)
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u/surrender0monkey Mar 03 '25
I understand where you’re coming from, but we will likely see a recession. I made decent gains soon after the election, I’m cool taking my ball and going home. I will reinvest when the recession hits. The sugar high is wearing off. Bad economic indicators are starting to arrive.
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u/DiamondMan07 Mar 03 '25
My SPHD is up big the last week. There are great names and ETFs to be in now
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u/AnotherThroneAway Feb 28 '25
Nah, there will be a small pop like last time. The market is/has priced in some of this bullshit volatility
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u/NotAriGold Feb 28 '25
Agreed, plus the market dipped briefly today as the Ukraine meeting happened. If not this baked in tariff news, something else will probably happen.
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u/Due-Brush-530 Feb 28 '25
What if it's not real like 85% of Trump's other bullshit rhetoric used to confuse and divide people?
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u/ThereGoesTheSquash Feb 28 '25
You guys keep saying this but he was restrained last time by smarter people than him. No longer the case. He has been talking about tariffs forever. He has a fascination with the Gilded Age (wonder why). It’s real. He means what he says.
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u/vesparion Mar 01 '25
It will only drop when it’s real? Then why was it dropping every time tarrifs were even mentioned publicly?
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u/Consistent_Panda5891 Mar 01 '25
MMs want to drop the prices to buy cheaper. But it will drop much more when it is real. Inflation in levels where no mut cut raises atleast till 2026 when Powell will get replaced. Bad data on all most every report. Bonds 4.7%/yearly VS stock market close to its highs... Honestly IF tariffs take effect on 4th march it should tank easily 4-5% the index.
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u/InsidiousFloofs5150 Mar 01 '25
If it's real. Somehow I can't see Trump actually owning crashing the market directly by executive order.
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u/ishmetot Mar 01 '25
It will probably drop but could go either way. Market makers don't want everyone making successful predictions off of previous patterns.
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u/SatoshiReport Feb 28 '25
1 - it's March 4th 2 - as of today, Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model takes us from 2.3% gdp growth to -1.5% (not sure if that is a quarter or a year). I don't see any potential upside coming to the market anytime soon.
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u/elgigantedelsur Feb 28 '25
Drop in GDP = recession = lower interest rates = borrow more to prop up the ol’ Ponzi market
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u/SatoshiReport Feb 28 '25
Sounds nice but living through 2000 and 2008, it doesn't really work that smoothly
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u/elgigantedelsur Feb 28 '25
Don’t I know it, I’m old and can remember.
Current market is a bit weird though. Seems like it’s driven by excess floaty cash more than anything else.
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u/StringlyTyped Feb 28 '25
This only worked in 2020 because Congress was willing to pass mass stimulus bills. It’s unlikely it’ll happen again.
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u/Bagman220 Mar 01 '25
Aren’t they talking about doing 5000 dollar stimulus checks?
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u/Googgodno Mar 01 '25
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model takes us from 2.3% gdp growth to -1.5%
GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports
due to raise in imports anticipating the tariffs... imports up by 12% but due to strong dollar, exports are up by 2%. causing in drop in GDP.
when they cut all fed workers and reduce govt spending, it will further lower GDP.
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u/CombinationLivid8284 Feb 28 '25
I think most people think Trump is bluffing.
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u/Zarathustra_d Feb 28 '25
He didn't get those sweet Ukraine minerals today.
So, his negotiating is not as good as they like to pretend.
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u/faxanaduu Feb 28 '25
He went full petulant child today.
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u/gurniehalek Feb 28 '25
You never go full petulant child.
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u/faxanaduu Mar 01 '25
Seriously. 🥭 Isn't pacing himself, he's fast tracking his paper-tiger-dictator role.
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u/time-BW-product Feb 28 '25
I don’t think he is bluffing.
I think he has boxed himself into a corner. Canada isn’t negotiating. He is going to have to follow through. We will pay the price.
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u/CombinationLivid8284 Feb 28 '25
I agree. His ego is hurt but it seems most traders think he’s bluffing. Trump has almost no tolerance for pain
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u/discovery999 Feb 28 '25
Canada has nothing to negotiate. Trump keeps moving the goalposts. He just wants more manufacturing back in the US. No negotiating can change that. Not sure how many Americans want to work in shoe factories but time will tell.
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u/time-BW-product Feb 28 '25
& why negotiate with a counter party that can’t keep their side of the bargain
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u/SirBobPeel Mar 02 '25
Trump did this his first term. After long negotiations, Canada and Mexico signed a free trade agreement with Trump. It is still in effect. Only now, for no real reason, Trump has decided to ignore it and start punishing them until he gets an even better deal. Which he may or may not honor. Much like the laws and the constitution.
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u/EducationBorn3518 Mar 01 '25
Right. I worked briefly as a supervisor in manufacturing and we couldn’t find people to fill roles. Americans just don’t want those jobs no matter how much Trump and his billionaire buddies want to move sweatshops back here to reduce Shipping costs.
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u/jmnugent Mar 01 '25
Americans would work any job that paid them appropriately. Most of the “Americans wont work these jobs” is usually “Americans wont work these low paying jobs.” Well, yeah. If I cant afford Rent or Food, its not much better than being homeless.
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u/EducationBorn3518 Mar 01 '25
Paid approproately isn’t gonna happen under Trump. The low and middle class of this country will continue to work 40 Hour a week plus jobs for scraps while the bezos and musks of this country stack Benjamin’s
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u/jmnugent Mar 01 '25
Or like the guy from Google just said that he thinks people should be working 60hr weeks. :\…
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u/1slinkydink1 Mar 01 '25
Hope you like paying $300 for sneakers.
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u/jmnugent Mar 01 '25
The last 2 pairs of shoes I bought were $230 and $295 ... so way ahead of you on that one !
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u/Red_Bullion Mar 02 '25
I'm in manufacturing. We have no problem filling roles. But we pay well, fully comp insurance, and give a month PTO. If you pay guys $20 an hour and treat them like shit they'll leave.
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u/GeraldineGrace Mar 02 '25
I'm in manufacturing and it sounds like I should work for your company. Congrats on treating your people right!
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u/Valuable_Economist14 Mar 02 '25
Yes, reduce shipping costs (probably 1% of per unit expenditure), boost the labour component cost (50% of a company’s expenses) from $2 a day to whatever minimum wage is in the US. Thatll help the bottom line
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u/MaxwellSmart07 Mar 02 '25
Factories don’t just pop up overnight. Because trump acts like an impetuous child - ie. tariffs on again and off again, no one’s going to start building factories based on that he says/threatens.
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u/QwertyPolka Mar 01 '25
From my understanding Canada is negotiating heavily behind the curtains, but nothing has leaked yet in regards to what precisely Trump/Bessent are trying to get their hands on.
Water has been mentioned, agricultural products, but it may also be very possible that nothing will satisfy them, they're just trying to grab some extra benefits along the way before enacting the tariffs.
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u/time-BW-product Mar 01 '25
I couldn’t find any articles about them negotiating. I wonder where you saw this or heard it.
It sounds like they really want to put these tariffs in place then. Trump was all about this external revenue service being a great idea.
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u/QwertyPolka Mar 01 '25
Keep in mind I also have access to French media.
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u/LtUnsolicitedAdvice Mar 01 '25
Ok send any links you might have. Language translation is a solved problem.
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u/SirBobPeel Mar 02 '25
The Canadian government is on the cusp of an election. Trump's histrionics have been VERY good for the government party. Threatening another country with annexing them by force tends to create a 'rally round the flag' effect and the government party has hugely benefited. They have ZERO interest in negotiating and settling things until after the election, should Trump help them to win. They will probably welcome tariffs so they can 'bravely retaliate and stand up for Canada'.
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u/TheGruenTransfer Feb 28 '25
That's the only reasonable position to take. He floods the zone with so much shit that nothing he says can be believed until it actually happens
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u/papichuloya Feb 28 '25
Prob 75% baked in. Nothing is actually fully realized until it actually happens
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u/AnotherThroneAway Feb 28 '25
That's what I said 8 months in about building a crib for our daughter
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u/ankole_watusi Feb 28 '25 edited Feb 28 '25
Now it’s March 4.
On March 4, perhaps it will be March 5, at noon…
If the weather is favorable, thinking I might want to hang out near the Ambassador Bridge (Detroit - largest point of land importation in US) to view the backed-up trucks waiting for both remaining customs inspectors to do their thing.
At least I can visit nearby Mexican markets to score the last < $5 avocados.
The real drop will be the next hurricane/tornado/flood/whatever the gutted NWS fails to predict, the total lack of disaster response by gutted FEMA, the next pandemic we only hear about from foreign media correspondents (until their passports are revoked) etc.
Who makes body bags, again?
I have a watchlist still called “COVID”. It still has a lot of relevant names.
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u/LordFedorington Feb 28 '25
Lmao. What’s your watchlist?
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u/ankole_watusi Feb 28 '25 edited Feb 28 '25
I have others for natural disasters and supply chain disruptions that will also come in handy!
Glad I already have my Chinese generator (Predator/Harbor Freight) and Chinese battery power stations (Jackery) and a new Chinese chest freezer (Vissani/Home Depot).
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u/okverymuch Feb 28 '25
You think a natural disaster will spark a huge market drop?! That’s a very specific reason. More likely it’ll be a spiral of continued poor consumer confidence, higher inflation, and continued tariff issues over the course of 6 months that slowly plunges us in.
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u/ankole_watusi Feb 28 '25
I said nothing about a huge market drop.
Some stocks would likely appreciate in a natural disaster. Others decline. Ditto for supply chain disruption. They are all to be watched.
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u/Snoo23533 Feb 28 '25
One observation ive had over the last few years is that hype news is always baked in already but news of significance is rarely entirely baked in already. The tariffs are significant... Im not panic selling but I my guess is early March will not be good.
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u/itscool222 Feb 28 '25
They should start on the 4th. The market is probably in limbo right now. He once again left a day for magic "negotiations" but since the man is unhinged it could go either way.
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u/Anon-fickleflake Feb 28 '25
How could you price in something that trump says one day, then he had another thought and says something different then next day, then an hour later his friend is talking about his McDonald's dinner so trump has another idea so he says something different, then president musk actually tells him what to do so he says something different at 2am in Truth, and then ...
I guess the possibility is baked in, if that means anything.
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u/briefcase_vs_shotgun Feb 28 '25
It’s scheduled for the 4th…and no it’s not fully baked in as he delayed them last time lmao how could it be. Bought a bunch of outs this week and more today exp 5mar and 7mar.
Think he’s going to be riled up this weekend and tweeting a bunch of nonsense, suprising ppl bought in today tbh. Dude just embarrassed himself bad in the Ukraine meeting
I do think the tariffs will go thro as scheduled
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u/Automatic-Unit-8307 Mar 01 '25
No one thinks tariff is real. Everyone believes he will make a big announcement about what a great deal he made. Remember, Mexico paid for that beautiful wall. So beautiful, it’s like, no one has ever seen anything like it, many people are saying
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u/ItsCartmansHat Mar 01 '25
As someone who works in manufacturing, I believe we have not even seen the beginning of the potential impacts. It will take a full quarter after implementation to see the pain.
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u/FujitsuPolycom Feb 28 '25
Trump doesn't know his ass from his elbow, what tariffs are or do, or if he's going to implement them or not. So... 75% baked.
I'm just making that number up. This is financial advice.
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u/INXS2022 Feb 28 '25
After the Zelenskyy meeting at the WH, tarriffs or no tarriffs, Europe, Canada and Mexico are going to steer clear of doing business with the USA.
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u/Affectionate_Arm_512 Feb 28 '25
Market alr had a bug reaction to the announcement so i doubt we see another big reaction but nobody knows for sure
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u/EducationBorn3518 Mar 01 '25
I’m not waiting to find out. Tarrifs are bad enough. Wait til consumers worldwide start to boycott and divest away from American companies in the coming weeks and months.
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u/Several_Cry2501 Feb 28 '25
People generally think Trump is a lying sack of shit, so no it's not priced in.
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u/metekillot Feb 28 '25
Considering companies used the coronavirus pandemic as a veil for raising prices higher than they needed to be I assume they're going to do the same thing with tariffs and end up more profitable in the end than they were before the tariffs. There will be a short-term drop in stock prices to reflect market sentiment and confusion, but the bloodsucking leeches that lead most of our corporations are going to grow very fat from the opportunity to latch on unnoticed. I only wish I had more money to buy the impending dip.
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u/Icy_Spinach_4828 Feb 28 '25
With so much of drama, no one knows whats priced jn any more and what not.
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u/beekeeper1981 Feb 28 '25
How can it be baked on when no one really has a clue if it will actually happen.
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u/rendumguy Feb 28 '25
who fucking knows it's trump the tariffs might go through or he'll cancel them again.
who knows
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u/rendumguy Mar 03 '25
It's funny how my point has been proven at this time regardless of whether or not he cancels the tariffs lol
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u/faxanaduu Feb 28 '25
I think the market acknowledged it this week. If it doesn't happen pump time! That late day pump today has me wondering if some insider info snuck out.
🥭 Causes a problem, then yaps his mouth taking credit for fixing it. Good chance of tarrifs being averted. Monday or after some pain from them when he gets what he wants.
I hate this timeline btw.
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u/uh-oh_spaghetti-oh Feb 28 '25
Given the correction we've seen the Tariffs are atleast somewhat baked in.
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u/AnonymousTimewaster Feb 28 '25
UK here - just laughing from the sidelines after he announced them the first time.
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u/Standard_Court_5639 Feb 28 '25
People are for the most part unable to process the economics of the tariffs. So I don’t think baked in and I don’t think will be realized immediately cuz maths is not a strong suit in the usAmerica. However, they will have an effect. When that starts to be actually felt. When the geopolitics of it are clearly being felt. When the Fed workers and in the shadows private sector firing that is going on. When all these start to coalesce. Oh don’t forget deepest credit card debt in 13 years in usAmerica. AI coming for more jobs. Sorry this isn’t the type of tech revolution that shifts to add jobs. Instability breeds fear. Fear reduces spending. All will coalesce in the coming quarter for the big whoosh late April and May. And then vacations will become staycations. And back to school will become hand me downs.
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u/LostMyMilk Mar 01 '25
Well the 10% tariffs hit a month ago for China. That's 17.5% to 35% already with another 10% next week.
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u/Ok_Location_1092 Feb 28 '25
Only when real. It’s not a certainty at all, Trump balked last time. Trump makes threats and later decides whether they’re real or not. No one knows when he is about to make a threat or if it’s real or not, expect probably his billionaire buddies.
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u/possible-penguin Feb 28 '25
I'm not entirely convinced that he even knows if they are real himself.
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u/SayNoToBrooms Feb 28 '25
Market will decide tariffs are actually good now, roughly an hour after futures open up very red on Sunday night
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u/Lingweenie2 Feb 28 '25
If the tariffs ACTUALLY take effect I’d say it’s not baked in. But it’ll be delayed sort of. It’ll take time for companies profits/results to come out in the aftermath. Along with the other main financial results like CPI, jobs, etc. There’s no practical way this would be good for the usual consumers and businesses. Unless you’re significantly and almost exclusively exposed only within America. Even then, people’s buying power will slip leading to theoretical sales drops simply because available people will most likely eat too much pain elsewhere limiting your own growth.
But overall, I don’t think the tariffs will actually go into effect. And if it does, it’ll be short lived. Just seems like political theater. Making an issue out of nothing so you can ‘fix it.’ If all these tariffs take effect in actuality, people will realize real quick just how much they’ll get boned on a great deal of products. From a political standpoint, it would be a massive blunder. It’ll just push people to question the direction of the country further.
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u/United_Anteater4287 Feb 28 '25
It’s not baked in because Trump is so erratic you never know what he will do. It depends on what his Russian handlers decide they can get away with.
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u/skilliard7 Feb 28 '25
Only partially, the market is pricing in both possibilities. If it goes into effect the market will decline further, if it is cancelled or delayed the market will rally.
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u/Dry-Nectarine-2372 Feb 28 '25
I think Trump will blink frankly, these tariffs will only hurt the US economy as they get so much from Canada and Canada will impose tariffs should it does happen…. Nobody wins
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u/kismetized122 Feb 28 '25
I thought he said March 4th thry go into effect? Just gives him another opportunity to walk it back on Monday and delay until April
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u/sarhoshamiral Feb 28 '25
I don't think so because sentiment I am seeing is Trump will delay this too.
So it is maybe quarter baked in.
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u/Megaloman-_- Feb 28 '25
It’s priced in of course. However, it doesn’t mean that the sell off will stop anytime soon
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u/JefferyTheQuaxly Feb 28 '25
its not going to fully drop until they hit, people still keep doubting if trump actually will because he keeps pushing them back, at least part of the market still thinks thats what might happen.
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u/Next-Problem728 Feb 28 '25
No impact. Whether they do it or not. No impact.
He’ll just add them to dog food imports at 1% to save face. It’s all a scam.
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u/okverymuch Feb 28 '25
It will dip every 2-5 weeks for at least the next few months. It’s chaos governance. Buy each dip.
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u/iiiiiiiiiAteEyes Feb 28 '25
The way trump goes back and forth on things it’s probably not totally baked in.
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u/fanzakh Feb 28 '25
I really think quantum computer will be a great fit for stock market predictions. Because it's yes and no at the same time.
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u/Millionaire007 Mar 01 '25
March 4th and I cleared things out bc trump likes to backpeddle after making headlines
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u/degenforlife69 Mar 01 '25
Current market is not forward looking, we got a bunch of retail clowns closing their eyes and blindly buying. The tariffs will not be priced in until it takes effect.
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u/sexyshadyshadowbeard Mar 01 '25
If you’re still overly exposed to Tariff stocks, where have you been for the past four months?
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u/notseelen Mar 01 '25
EVERYTHING is priced into the market already.....*however*, the way things get priced in, is basically:
[Badness of potential thing * likelihood of it happening]
That's why prices still drop, because a certain amount of people were betting it wouldn't happen. others are ignorant to it completely, or just dead wrong, and still others are too extreme
So when bad things happen, there is still usually movement...but that doesn't mean it's going to go down. If the thing isn't as bad as expected, it could go up
there's really no way to know for sure, of course
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u/Separate_Bid_2364 Mar 01 '25
I believe the market has priced in tariffs for a “negotiation” period…How long is anyone’s guess. Probably somewhere between 6 weeks and 2 months. If Tariffs are in place longer than that expect a tank.
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u/automaticg36 Mar 01 '25
This stuff has been discussed so much at this point it's already built into the price. If the market truly didn't believe it would happen, we wouldn't have had such a volatile market this last month. I believe we will see the market shift, go back up, or small percentage change it'll react in a surprised fashion but for it to do so all the institutions have to be morons so I don't see that happening.
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u/TheAvgPersonIsDumb Mar 01 '25
Do you think all the companies that have released their projections for next quarter this past month have taken potential tariffs into account or not?
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u/Infinite-Draft-1336 Mar 02 '25
Buy low, sell high, it's not hard.
Market tends to over react in the short term. People who sold will FOMO back in if it goes back up.
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u/Visual_Comfort_6011 Mar 02 '25
What makes you think it is going to be real ? He has proven that he likes to talk a lot and back out in the last minute on that issue.
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u/cghffbcx Mar 02 '25
None of us people will ever “get” the tariffs, until they are effecting us directly.
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u/I_Love_To_Poop420 Mar 02 '25
Everything will continue to slide with a few green days every week. Even if he back peddled on tariffs, the absolute chaos and uncertainty is causing people to pull out.
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u/Gullible_Pin5844 Mar 02 '25
Hopefully Trump will change his mind again and postpone it for another week 
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u/Amateratzu Feb 28 '25
After delaying them the first time there is a good chance they will be delayed again.
I am betting they will be delayed again
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u/Nightrider247 Feb 28 '25
Any chance this helps American companies in the long term to be more profitable?
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u/Sycamoreapple32 Mar 01 '25
People, this is Donald Trump. He will not do something that will crash the markets. Tariffs are a bargaining chip, a big bluff card. He’s swinging the power of the USA to get countries to do what he wants. If he senses prolonged market impacts you bet your bottom dollar he’s reverse ferreting
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