https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/buffett-denies-social-media-rumors-after-trump-shares-wild-claim-that-investor-backs-president-crashing-market.html

Warren Buffett went on the record Friday to deny social media posts after President Donald Trump shared on Truth Social a fan video that claimed the president is tanking the stock market on purpose with the endorsement of the legendary investor.

Trump on Friday shared an outlandish social media video that defends his recent policy decisions by arguing he is deliberately taking down the market as a strategic play to force lower interest and mortgage rates.

“Trump is crashing the stock market by 20% this month, but he’s doing it on purpose,” alleged the video, which Trump posted on his Truth Social account.

The video’s narrator then falsely states, “And this is why Warren Buffett just said, ‘Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years.’”

The Swiss government said it doesn’t understand how the U.S. calculated its tariffs. All Swiss goods will be subject to 31% to 32% when imported into the U.S. That’s higher than other U.S. trade partners with similar economic structures like the European Union, the U.K. and Japan, the Swiss Federal Council said. “The calculations of the US government are not clear to the Federal Council,” it said. The Swiss government denied it had a trade surplus with the U.S. due to unfair trade practices, saying 99% of U.S. goods can be imported into Switzerland duty-free. Escalating trade tensions isn’t in Switzerland's interests, the council said, and the government isn’t planning to retaliate against the U.S.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-trade-war-stock-market-04-03-2025/card/switzerland-says-it-s-baffled-by-tariff-calculations-TifiAx6Hde1RTM8HXDLT

Article here.

Basically China just gave the Trump administration the middle finger and are not going to negotiate jack shit. They will simply let Trump deal with the inflation and economic damage that American farmers and manufacturers will suffer with the 34% tariffs that China is imposing on them. China is betting that this escalating trade war is going to be more politically painful for Trump than for Xi. If the EU takes the same approach this could become a long trade war of attrition.

" The last time the world experienced something like this was at 1930's. Trade wars escalated into armed conflicts and eventually the second world war"

No one can say how the current situation will unfold in the coming months or years"

International norms are eroding. more and more countries will act in self interest and will use pressure and force to get their way.

He also said that the US created the WTO and now trying to rewrite the rule book, do yourself a fav and invest 10 minutes to watch/listen to whole thing.

Proceed carefully on Monday, Liquidity already dried up and it doesn't take much for big swings.

Before getting downvote to oblivion let me say this first: I think tariffs are bad. I don't like what is happening. You have every right to be concerned.

However these posts talking about the biggest losses ever in terms of points or dollar values are misleading, provide no real relative insight, and are likely posted by bots, karma farmers, or those intentionally trying to cause division and fear.

I don't know if anyone really needs this explained to them, but 5% of a bigger number is more than 5% of a smaller number.

Imagine if I posted on r/math with a post titled: "5% of 100 is greater than 5% of 10"

And the post text: "Here's my proof: .05 * 100 = 5 and .05 * 10 = .5. And we know that 5 > 0.5. 🎤 drop"

We can do better. We can discuss how bad things are without this useless sensationalized fear-mongering clickbait BS.

Thank you (insert JD Vance meme) for allowing me to waste more of your time.

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At this point it should be no suprise that few extremely rich people are going to gobble up even more wealth. US economy has become a meme at this point.

At this point, shorting the market ourselves is a way to make some money. Apart from TESLA, S&P 500, etc. what other stocks should be shorted ?

Also if you have $10K in cash, where would you invest it ?

Article here.

Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban believes companies will waste no time spending their first available dollars on stock buybacks.

In a post shared early Saturday morning, Cuban wrote, “Is there any doubt that the first dollar out the door from companies will be to buy back their stock? It’s the only certain investment available to them.”

I have most of my savings invested in American companies and i´m not selling a single share, things look pretty grim right now, everything is red and nobody seems sure when we will hit the bottom but remember its pretty much 100% sure the markets will recover so aslong as you don´t sell a single share you will get your money back.

As a matter in fact i´m taking this as a chance to buy at discount price and i´m seriously consider selling some of my other assets to buy more stock right now.

Everytime the market crashes you have people saying this is the time everything is finally going to crumble and that it´s the end but they always turn out to be wrong, there is no reason things will work differentely this time.

I´m not American but i´m certain the value in American companies and economy is still intact, the market is responding to fear and uncertaintity but when that inevitably goes away the green will be back stronger than ever.

https://www.ft.com/content/8ba439ec-297c-4372-ba45-37e9d7fd1771

Hedge funds have been hit with the biggest margin calls since Covid shut down huge parts of the global economy in 2020, after Donald Trump’s tariffs triggered a rout in global financial markets.

Wall Street banks have asked their hedge fund clients to stump up more money as security for their loans because the value of their holdings had tumbled, according to three people familiar with the matter. Several big banks have issued the largest margin calls to their clients since the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020.

The margin calls underscore the intense turbulence in global markets on Thursday and Friday as Trump’s tariffs announcement was followed by retaliatory duties by China, and other countries readied their own responses. Wall Street’s S&P 500 share index was set to post its worst week since 2020, while oil and riskier corporate bonds have sold off heavily.

This isn’t a dip. It’s not a correction. It’s the slow, brutal unraveling of a debt-soaked fantasy we’ve been pretending was sustainable since 2008. The Fed is cornered—rates are high, inflation refuses to die, and there's no bailout coming this time. The only soft landing is for the billionaires with parachutes made of your 401(k).

Tech is imploding under the weight of hype and weak fundamentals. AI was a sugar high. Now we’re crashing. Banks are getting shaky. Commercial real estate is a time bomb. And consumers? They're maxed out, broke, and paying 29% on credit cards to buy gas and eggs.

And just when we needed stability, we get chaos: Trump’s back in the mix with unhinged tariffs, trade wars 2.0, and economic policies that look like they were scribbled on a napkin in a Denny’s at 3 a.m. Markets hate uncertainty—guess what? That’s all we’ve got now.

This isn’t a crash. It’s controlled demolition with nobody at the controls.

Sell, don’t look back, and maybe plant a garden. We had a good run.

Goodbye, and may whatever comes next be merciful.

So much fear in the markets and this time really feels different. All the Mag7 stocks are so hit by the tariffs our iPhones will probably cost $5,000 soon and as the world slows, people will use Amazon less, advertise less on FB/IG. No one is buying Tesla anymore. Who needs anymore AI chips, yet AI is decreasing Google searches.

I fear the world is realizing it all this weekend. Or is it just me that sky appears to be falling?

It is very easy in a bull market to believe you are comfortable with 100% equities. After all, maybe you saw a chart about how stocks provide the best return over the long term, about how they always bounce back if you don't sell, and you saw the stock market return 20-25% a year for 2 years in a row. A 2-5% drop due to a relatively insignificant event like a CPI release, Deepseek, etc is not a true test of investor discipline. The true test is major crises:

Every 5-10 years in markets, there is a huge scare that leads people to believe the US or global economy will be completely killed. This is a fact of markets that every investor needs to accept. Sometimes these scares are only a little scary, sometimes they are frightening. In 2008-2009 it was the GFC and the collapse of the global financial system, in 2018 it was the US waging a big trade war that everyone forgot about, 2020 we had covid, etc.

With the benefit of hindsight, all of those crashes might not seem that bad. After all, you know the US bounced back.

But I can say at the time, based only on the information currently available, those events were far more threatening than what we are experiencing now:

• GFC was a very real economic crisis. Mountains of bad debt. Tons of massive institutions going under. And lots of political resistance to actually bailing out failing institutions. It's easy to say in hindsight that you would've bought the bottom, but if you lived at the time, watching politicians grandstand about not bailing out huge corporations, creative destruction, etc, it did not look like things would get better anytime soon. It did seem like our country was ready to let everything collapse.

• There was a trade war in 2018, lots of uncertainty about how far it would go. The stock market tanked similar to how it did now, and bounced back in less than a month. Anyone that panic sold lost out big time.

• 2020 Covid involved a 33% GDP annual decline rate, the fastest in US history. 15% unemployment. A pandemic and shut down businesses with no end in sight. Reddit sentiment at the bottom in mid-late March looked just like it does now.

And here we are with another trade war. Are tariffs bad for the economy, corporation margins, and earnings? Yes. Is the economy going to go into a great depression because of it? Of course not. Imports are ~10% of the US economy. A 25% average tariff rate, if these tariffs actually stick, amounts to an average 2.5% tax. The EU, on the other hand, has a 20-25% VAT on EVERYTHING. Is their economy in a massive depression? No.

Economists(not associated with the white house) have modeled the impact of these reciprocal tariffs as a 2% increase in PCE(Inflation) and 0.5% decrease in GDP if they are not reduced. This is a headwind for the economy, but it's not the collapse of capitalism.

I think on social media there is very much a bias towards doomer content. Fear mongering performs well with engagement, so it is very prominent.

If you find yourself panicking and selling because your portfolio dropped 10%, you need to accept that you are a risk-averse investor. If you buy back in, you're just going to end up selling the next time a scary event happens.

For anyone that is selling, please do not FOMO back in to 100% equities a year later after trade wars were resolved and the market had already went back up 20%. Accept that you cannot tolerate that high of an exposure to equities, and build something more palatable, like a 60:40 portfolio.

My initial plan was to ride this out. But being that I started investing a little over a year ago I am starting to lose a decent amount of money. Did I already miss the opportunity to sit on the side lines? Do I just continue to ride it out?

Im not retiring anytime soon but the fear and panic I see on this sub is pretty extreme.

Let’s have a moment of silence for everyone’s liberated stock portfolios. President Donald J. Trump has officially sent the stock market back a full year.

“We will win so much you’ll get tired of winning”. No winning in sight.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it now expects the US economy to fall into a recession this year after accounting for the likely impact of tariffs announced this week by the Trump administration.

“We now expect real GDP to contract under the weight of the tariffs, and for the full year (4Q/4Q) we now look for real GDP growth of -0.3%, down from 1.3% previously,” the bank’s chief US economist, Michael Feroli, said Friday in a note to clients, referring to gross domestic product.

“The forecasted contraction in economic activity is expected to depress hiring and over time to lift the unemployment rate to 5.3%,” Feroli said.

Supreme Court stopped student loan relief from by Biden on the basis of the major question doctrine, whereby show me shoes are simply too big for one person to make an arbitrary and capricious decision about, therefore require the consent of Congress. Why not apply this to tariffs? Why don’t the Democrats pursue this actively?

A lot of you who are now cash heavy but with a long investment time-frame (10+ years), whats your plan for coming back in and how are you going to time that. Even if the market dribbles down the rest of this year, we are going to see days with large upswings here and there. What makes you so sure that the day before wasn’t the bottom?

And if you are waiting to react to some changes/announcements, what makes you think you’re going to be able to buy in before everyone else piles their cash back into the market sending it upwards?

I’m 85 stocks/15 cash. I was in Feb, and I still am today. And I’m just continuing to rebalance to that allocation as wild swings occur.

(By the way I live in New Zealand so my stocks are about 65% US, 15% domestic, and 20% rest of the world (what you Americans refer to as international). Pretty much all blue chips.

Chinese and overseas suppliers import / export tons to the USA. It is a pain in the ass to find new consumers, set up supply chains and freights to new areas.

My friends speak broken Chinese say it is very hard to communicate with them via phone (due to language), and have to use google translate a lot during their emails. TLDR it’s a pain in the ass to find new clients both as an importer / exporter

Currently the exporters are working together to try to meet in the middle, 15-35 percent more per product to pay at the ports. If my friend does not raise prices he will lose ~30 percent profit. One example is selling a household decorative item on Amazon for $39.

They are thinking of trying to meet in the middle and only lose 15-20 percent profit and hope this all blows over soon.

Sad to see everyone from exporter importer and consumer (only if sellers raise their prices) losing money, just some thoughts. Reddit thinks everything is going to blow up and we’re going to lose all our trade deals but it’s a pain in the ass for everyone trying to find new traders for all their goods

US stocks cratered on Friday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) plunging more than 2,200 points after China stoked trade-war fears and Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned of higher inflation and slower growth stemming from tariffs.

The Dow pulled back 5.5% to enter into correction territory. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (GSPC) sank nearly 6%, as the broad-based benchmark capped its worst week since 2020. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) dropped 5.8% to close in bear market territory.

The major averages added to Thursday's $2.5 trillion wipeout after China said it will impose additional tariffs of 34% on all US products from April 10 — matching the extra 34% duties imposed by Trump on Wednesday.

That ramped up investor worries that countries are more likely to retaliate than negotiate, leading to a protracted global trade war.

Investors flocked to government bonds as the 10-year Treasury (TNX) yield fell to 3.9%, nearing its lowest levels since October.

Economists are warning that with tariffs as-is, the risk of a US recession is rising. The monthly jobs report, unusually overshadowed Friday, showed a labor market that held steady ahead of Trump's biggest tariffs. The US added 228,000 jobs in March, beating estimates, though the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Powell for the first time addressed the reality of the tariffs, saying they were "higher than anticipated." He said it is "too soon to say" what the proper rate path should be. Traders have ramped up bets on interest rate cuts this year to five, as the Fed is expected to set its efforts to cool inflation aside to tackle the bigger risk of economic slowdown.

Trump, posting on Truth Social on Friday, added to fears by saying that his policies "will never change" and warning that China "played it wrong."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-plunges-2200-points-nasdaq-enters-bear-market-as-trump-tariffs-spark-worst-meltdown-since-2020-200042876.html

Here’s the key: a trade deficit only tracks the flow of goods and services, not who owns the goods, who profits from them, or where the capital ultimately goes.

If American companies outsource manufacturing abroad (say, to Vietnam or China), then import those goods into the U.S. to sell domestically or re-export elsewhere, the U.S. shows a trade deficit because it's importing more than it exports.

But:

The ownership of the goods, the intellectual property, and the profits stay with the American company.

The value-added activities like design, marketing, finance, and management (which are higher-margin) often remain in the U.S.

The foreign country gets paid for labor and materials — typically a much smaller slice.

So while the trade statistics make it look like America is "losing," the profits and value accumulation — the real wealth — can still be flowing into American hands.

This is actually a big part of the so-called "smile curve" theory in globalization:

The manufacturing (middle of the curve) is lower-value.

The R&D, design, branding (left side) and marketing, sales (right side) are high-value, and mostly happen in richer countries like the U.S.

Example: Apple has a huge trade deficit with China because iPhones are assembled there. But Apple captures about 40–50% of the iPhone's final sale price as profit. China might get 3–5% for the assembly.

I've witnessed all the major crashes sincec '89 and too many mini meltdowns to count...and I have never witnessed such uniform, orderly meltdown like this. All the major markets around the world are down almost exactly 9%. I didn't hear about any panic so bad as to require trading halts. What gives?

EDIT: I’m not an investor, just asking a question.

Trump controls the SEC and DOJ, so who’s going to investigate or stop him?

Is it possible that Trump, his family, and billionaire buddies are benefiting from Trump’s tariffs?

Trump could be letting them know the date and time that he’s going to make the announcement to impose tariffs. Like many investors, they pull their investments but, they have a head start due to their insider knowledge.

Then he lets those on the inside know that he’s going to rescind tariffs and the date and time which he will be announcing that.

They buy the dip and profit as the market rebounds.

Rinse and repeat.

I am specifically referring to the Vietnamese decision to seek negotiations and request a postponement of tariffs in response to U.S. trade actions.

Using the idiom “blinked first” might make for punchy headlines, but it carries a subtle connotation of weakness or capitulation. It implies a power dynamic where one side lost nerve or caved under pressure. While not overtly insulting, it does paint the act of negotiation as a kind of defeat rather than a diplomatic maneuver. For other world leaders, that framing can be problematic:

• Deterrent Effect: Leaders may become more reluctant to appear conciliatory if doing so will be publicly framed as “blinking.” Saving face is a major factor in international relations, especially in cultures where honor or strength in negotiation is paramount.

• Tougher Postures: Some may double down on hardline stances, not necessarily because it’s best for their economy, but to avoid being seen as the weaker party—especially if domestic audiences are watching closely.

• Private Over Public Diplomacy: To avoid that kind of characterization, leaders might prefer more behind-the-scenes negotiation rather than public requests for tariff relief or concessions.

So yes, while it may just be an idiom, its impact can ripple. It signals that showing flexibility could be equated with weakness in the global media narrative—and that’s rarely helpful when diplomacy requires exactly that: flexibility.

To preface, I hope this does not turn into yet another political discussion.

For the S and P, using Y charts, adding up the earnings from last 4 quarters, I am getting 200.

Per a 2020 Goldman investor letter, the average recession is associated with 17.5% EPS reduction. On average the S and P returns about 9% per year over last 20 years.

CAPE ratio of the S and P is 31 currently.

So, I am modeling the S and P based on fundamentals and sentiment.

For fundamentals, I have 3 scenarios: bear scenario where a 17.5% (from Goldman letter) EPS reduction occurs, base with no change in EPS, bull with 9% increase in EPS.

For sentiment, I have same 3 scenarios: bear PE 25, base PE 30 (slight decline in sentiment) , bull PE 33.

So, in the bearish scenario, EPS is 165 (17% reduction in EPS) and PE 25. which yields a price of 4125.

Base scenario, EPS of 200 with PE of 30 yields a price of 6000.

Most bullish scenario EPS 218 (9% growth), PE 33. yields 7194.

Of note the historical median CAPE is 16. Assuming EPS 200 (no growth), this yields 3200. Which to me makes no sense. I think the issue is this includes all the time period before globalized free trade and dollar based system. But this could be seen as the black swan come to reality number.

Bottomline:

I think the tariffs will be rolled back, delayed, forgotten. Victories will be proclaimed. Parallel imports will cushion the blow as well. Get ready for British tooth brushes, Brazilian MRI machines, Canadian Kimchee and Mexican Rolex Submariner and ALS 1815 Up/down definitely USMCA compliant.

Jokes aside, for me, I will start buying around 4500-4600. Aim to deploy all dry powder if we ever hit 4100. We certainly can dip below 4000 but to me very unlikely.

We have had enough orange idiot comments or orange savior comments. I have zero interest in American politics. Let's just stick to the stocks and what you think the numbers will be and why. I know no one can predict the future, but I think nonetheless it is important to build a framework to guide our investment decisions.