r/stocks • u/colenotphil • 1d ago
potentially misleading / unconfirmed CMV: Trump's tariffs are political weapons intentionally designed to create leverage over nearly every country, industry, and company.
I've seen a lot of discussion here about why Trump is doing these tariffs. For example, I've seen:
- He is doing this to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.A.
- He is doing this to "punish" countries for their tariffs and trade imbalances on and with the U.S.A.
- He doesn't know what he's doing, and is dumb and/or short-sighted.
While I see where the logic for these explanations is coming from, I think there is a very real chance that the true explanation is that Trump's tariffs are a political weapon, designed to give him leverage over nearly every country, industry, and company. By instituting tariffs, rather than just threatening them, now the clock is ticking: countries, industries, and companies are frantically trying to figure out what to do.
Think about it: first, Trump went after universities, threatening to withhold funding unless they caved to his demands about diversity and pro-Palestinian protestors. This has already forced major institutions, like Columbia, to bend the knee to him.
Then, Trump went after big law firms and their clients, threatening through Executive Orders to cut off their access and intimidate them. This has already resulted in major law firms (Paul Weiss and Skadden) to forge "settlements" to do free pro bono work to the President's bidding, though luckily some of these firms (Perkins Coie) have had the integrity to fight back and sue.
Following this logic, it follows that Trump with his tariffs doesn't legitimately believe what he is telling the public about his intentions. Far more likely, I think, that he is using these tariffs to force pledges of loyalty, concessions, and "deals" with countries, industries, and companies.
This is not my original idea, to be fair; I heard it from U.S. Senator Chris Murphy (D - Connecticut). He has pointed out that democratically-elected leaders turned despot/authoritarian/fascist will use tools like this to maintain power. Trump knows he cannot be reelected due to term limits, so how does he hold on to power? Like this. It is a slippery slope towards becoming a dictator.
I can only hope that some countries/industries/companies see through this B.S. and fight back, but it is likely that many—now that their finances are being hurt—will bend the knee.
Going back to the common explanations for Trump's tariffs, here are my counterarguments:
- If this was intended to bring manufacturing back to the U.S.A., that doesn't make a lot of sense. Companies aren't just going to upend decades of supply chains to invest billions into a country whose people don't want a lot of dirty, hard-work manufacturing jobs, especially when everything could (likely) revert back when Trump is out of office in 4 years.
- I won't pretend to be an economist, but a big reason for the trade imbalances is because Americans like buying stuff from XYZ countries. That isn't those countries' fault, necessarily. And moreover, the chart Trump showed at the White House Rose Garden this week did not accurately reflect the actual tariff rates that foreign countries place on the U.S.A—it included trade imbalances, which makes zero sense and is highly misleading, if not an outright lie.
- Trump may appear dumb, but he has scores of well-planned sycophants from groups like the Heritage Foundation (Project 2025 authors) that are advising him. It is highly unlikely that they planned so much of his presidency, but the tariffs themselves were an afterthought.
Now granted, we have heard rumors that the tariffs were hastily put together, and that Trump's team may have used ChatGPT to write some of the policy out. At first, this appears to support explanation no. 3. However, I think the hasty nature of these tariff policies actually supports the idea that they are purely intended as political weapons: it doesn't matter what exactly the tariffs are, what matters is creating immediate leverage.
Curious for the community's thoughts.
Disclosure: I have divested heavily from the U.S. markets and gone into EU stocks, especially defense. I am also short TSLA, DJT, and Air Canada.
EDIT: As seeming proof of this theory, American journalist Kara Swisher reported on BlueSky today that "Several sources tell me a passel of high profile tech and also finance leaders is making a trip to Mar-a-Lago to read Trump the riot act — um talk common sense — to him on the tariffs. Their million dollar donations to the inauguration is turning into billions in losses."
Translation, I think: executives are bending over backwards to try and get concessions from Trump. This shows he has leverage over them already.
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u/team_ti 1d ago
From Babylon 5. "Only an idiot fights a war on two fronts".
What say you to 200 fronts +/- some penguin?
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u/CVisionIsMyJam 1d ago
"Only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots fights a war on twelve fronts"
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u/DeliveryOk7892 1d ago
Trump might be a fan of multi front wars since, according to reports, he really likes Hitler and Mein Kampf.
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u/No_Paper612 1d ago edited 18h ago
America isn’t big enough to take on the whole world, Trump is going to lose. I say this as an American, our economy will crash.
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u/GetCashQuitJob 1d ago
It's the trust you can't get back.
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u/colenotphil 1d ago
As someone who has studied international relations since I was in high school, I agree.
This is ruining the soft power the USA has enjoyed, largely successfully, for decades.
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u/facforlife 1d ago
Conservative Americans and Trump have no fucking clue how much soft power has gotten this country.
I am reminded of that meme about libertarians being like cats. "absolutely convinced of their fierce independence while utterly dependent on a system they don't appreciate or understand."
American soft power is basically trust. Other countries find us annoying for certain things. We do bully other countries a fair bit. Our tourists can be loud and annoying and crass. But generally we are also there to help and provided a lot of it. American efforts to stop AIDS and malaria in Africa were huge. Our navy is first in line whenever a major natural disaster strikes anywhere around the world. We keep vital shipping lanes open. When Russia decides to invade we send arms and aid. Leaders around the world used to put up with our shenanigans because at the end of the day we generally helped more than we hurt.
We had almost all of Europe to count as staunch allies. Canada. Australia. Japan. South Korea. Taiwan. Wealthy, modern, industrialized nations. Who the fuck wouldn't want to be us? The top dog in a group like that?
We gave it all up for this nonsense. It's pathetic. I'm going to hate every single conservative and non-voter as long as I live. No forgiveness.
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u/colenotphil 1d ago
Amen, this is bad for the stock market, our economy, our international goodwill.
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u/Fluffy-Benefits-2023 1d ago
Honestly who voted for this and what do they think about it??
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u/cruisin_urchin87 1d ago
Yep. Although I’d say he has been ruining soft power since when he let Musk destroy USAID and his flimsy handling of Ukraine/Russia.
I mean the man has no idea how real business in a global economy works. Neither do his supporters. All to our lose.
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u/CompetitiveGood2601 1d ago
I think Rand Paul - said it best yesterday - we lost the house and senate for 60 yrs last time! The maga Faithful won't be so faithful once it hits home. I get they've drunk the kool aid at this point but trump has created so much division in the US its something that can be harnessed again in a better direction but it is going to cause some hardship to wake them up.
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u/cruisin_urchin87 1d ago
The sad part is USAID opened the door to many markets for the US. Those markets are now reconsidering or flat out closing their doors.
I hope someday it will be better, but right now we’re just going to have to buckle up and ride this one out. Wherever it goes.
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u/hipdozgabba 1d ago
I’ve read that the US send 3 people to Myanmar earthquake due to USAID cuts. China is so much gonna fill the gap the US left open with reducing their soft diplomatics. It’s so stupid to reduce all their programs on the visible costs
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u/VirtualRy 1d ago
There is no more leverage to use against these countries once the dust settles. The USA as a country is cooked! lol
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u/Servichay 1d ago
Exactly..... Even if the schoolyard bully "wins" for a year or 2, he loses over 20 years, nobody will trust the USA ever again, Trump or not, dem or repub
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u/hgartti 1d ago
One by one US can crush with tarifs any country, but atack all countries together, at the same time is like showing your cards while playing, and this time he has no cards.
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u/Kokukenji 1d ago
That’s actually a really solid analogy—and the unfortunate part is, he’s basically playing our hand for us.
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u/purplebrown_updown 1d ago
Reminds me of what Germany tried to do in WW2. They got too cocky and tried to fight off everyone from all sides. That was their downfall. God damn it.
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u/-OptimisticNihilism- 1d ago
When fucking Ted Cruz is criticising the tariffs ON DAY 2 it means he’s already lost. Every day this goes on is another percent of voters that abandon him. The MAGA will always be there but what put Trump over the top were the few million people that don’t pay attention and were sick of inflation.
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u/Huge_Rich522 1d ago
Cruz is speaking out because he’s playing politics. He’s most scared of his constituents turning on him because of the impending economic downturn than he is scared of them turning on him for criticizing Trump. Cruz is a snake, but this does show that he knows it will be a disaster economically and that enough MAGA will turn on and blame the republicans. So, this is a good thing.
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u/shantired 1d ago
Remember, Ted is a Mexican-Canadian who’s running as an American.
His loyalties change depending on how much snow falls wherever he lives.
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u/GhostReddit 1d ago
When fucking Ted Cruz is criticising the tariffs ON DAY 2 it means he’s already lost. Every day this goes on is another percent of voters that abandon him.
I'll believe it when Rafael Edward Cruz starts to actually vote against the guy.
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u/ptwonline 1d ago
The only way to avoid a crash is if the full-steam economic freight train Trump inherited from Biden has too much momentum to be stopped entirely. Which is quite possible...for a while.
I still can't believe Trump won because so many people believed the economy was in bad shape. WTF people?
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u/drjd2020 1d ago
He won mostly over immigration, inflation and "woke" rhetoric... you know things that attract MAGAts.
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u/SomeRandomSomeWhere 1d ago
Yeah, I fully expect China to benefit, with a bunch of free trade agreements signed with them shortly.
And most of the world can look into bypassing US in trade after that.
May need some painful adjustments, but the world will go on. US is probably going to find that the only friends it may end up having to trade with are Russia, N Korea, etc (after all they voted together in a recent UN vote).
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u/vsmack 1d ago
Reindustrialize the US, sure - but US manufacturing isn't cost competitive, especially with China. If America insists on turning inward, it will lose dollar privilege, many overseas assets will be seized, etc. Also most of the world is following US copyright law just to be nice (everything from pharma to cartoons). Wouldn't be surprised if countries start openly flaunting it (silicon valley will shit bricks).
It can eventually economically stabilize but probably at about half to as low as a third of its current economy. The pain of that contraction will almost certainly cause too much social damage for the country to survive the transition in its current state.
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u/playoponly 1d ago
He is Trump, he will reverse the tariff like flipping a coin if so
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u/discodropper 1d ago
The economy isn’t like a light switch, you don’t just flip it on and off…
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u/--GrinAndBearIt-- 1d ago
Well he sure did a fine job turning it off in a hurry
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u/tmssqtch 1d ago
It’s a lot easier and faster to destroy than to create. Even burned bridges don’t get rebuilt instantaneously.
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u/--GrinAndBearIt-- 1d ago
Thr US military can build a bridge in a couple days then they can allow a different country to use said bridge to invade a refugee camp
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u/facforlife 1d ago
You can always break things a lot easier and faster than building or repairing something. Whether it's an economy or trust/reputation.
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u/RaisingQQ77preFlop 1d ago
I mean it doesn't matter at this point the relational damage is done. You can stop the bleeding but no sane country would want to do any actual agreements with the US at this point because it's clear the deals may as well be written on an etch-a-sketch
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u/ElektroThrow 1d ago
Hitler will start being nice to the liberals once he sees the stock market crash, sure. Totally won’t use the event for another power grab…
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u/Hot-Celebration5855 1d ago
Yup. America is 25% of global gdp. #1 by a big margin but the rest of the world is still bigger.
If he’s not careful America could take an economic beatdown from the rest of the world and frankly I hope it does. No one likes a bully
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u/Xperimint 1d ago
I think the idea is that if our market "sneezes", they get the "flu"
Idk i kinda see the global repositioning idea behind this situation.
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u/yabuddy42069 1d ago
Investors are losing confidence in the US at a rapid pace as US soft power erodes away. Major issues I see that will make this situation worse:
Does Japan and UK start offloading US T-bills like China?
What happens if there is limited demand for US T-bills as investors no longer trust the GOP's actions
Commodities (oil) start trading in other currency denominations driving down the demand for US dollars
The 37 trillion dollar national debt is the real elephant in the room.
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u/TheHammer987 1d ago
Here's the interesting part. In a month or so, Canada and the EU will be looking to raise capital for a variety of investments. They will be issues a bunch of t bills.
So, let's say you are China or Japan. Do you keep your money in unreliable America, or start investing in Canada and the EU?
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u/LegitimateSoftware 1d ago
Why are we making the world sick again? Right after covid?
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u/BBpigeon 1d ago edited 1d ago
I do agree this is his intent and it's been stated by Lutnick and his other cronies, however it's not going to work out the way he thinks it will. Highly disagree with your statement about other countries having to bend the knee. American exceptionalism never ceases to amaze me, you are merely 4% of the world population. Americans can take on Canada but they can not win in an economic battle against Canada, the EU and all of Asia. The world economy will continue to trade fairly and unfortunately, China and India have more than sufficient demand to fill the void left by US consumers who will be struggling. If Trump gives one shit about the American economy, he will be the one bending the knee and spending billions to bail out various American industries (just like his first term).
The fact that the US population is so stupid that they elected Trump is a global safety concern for the rest of the world. Regardless what happens next fall or in 2028, the absolute debauchery coming from this administration will be a stain on America's history and global reputation for years to come.
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u/colenotphil 1d ago
Highly disagree with your statement about other countries having to bend the knee.
Fair, I think this will play out primarily in the domestic companies and industries.
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u/TheHammer987 1d ago
Sure, but this just demonstrates the dumbness.
Oh, the local companies will have to bend the knee to him.
Alright, Starbucks, let's do that. What happens when other countries decide to jack the price of coffee by 400%"?
The local companies can ask for carve outs all they want. They don't exist in vacuums. The supplies for most of them come from other countries.
This is why despite the argument that it's to create leverage, it's also dumb. A government can't be this inconsistent and imagine the world will treat it the same as it used to. The USA is now considered an unreliable actor. It's debt will be downgraded, the reserve currency will be divided up. Other countries will demand removal of American bases. Etc.
America wealth is dependent on being the superpower of the world. For a century, it represented a level of stability which made it feel like the world revolved around it. Doing this means America will need to be isolated from the world, because they can't be trusted.
This is the dumbest trade war possible.
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u/Relevations 1d ago
The U.S. is 26% of the world's GDP. The world...
All of Europe, is like 14%.
Deflecting the U.S. as "4% of the world population" is a severe underestimation and just a weird thing to say, regardless of what you think about Trump's actions/the U.S as a whole.
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u/Secret-Inspection180 1d ago
Not here to bootlick for the US but this is the correct take. It doesn't mean the US is immune to the fallout either but the idea that there wouldn't be consequences to removing the biggest economy by an order of magnitude from global trade and suddenly all that demand will get magically get taken up elsewhere is nonsense, what is happening right now is a lose-lose scenario for the entire global economy.
To put that in perspective the US is also the 2nd largest exporter in the world behind China so all the "lol US doesn't produce jack" comments frequently seen in these discussions are also baseless.
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u/siamsuper 1d ago
I think the US is absolutely the most important player in global economy. But at the same time he's literally fighting the whole rest of the world.
It's really a risky move. I can see both possibilities, the world caves in or the world just trades more without America.
If he fought only against Europe or only against china I can see a good strategy. But to go from Canada to china and even Vietnam or UK... It's taking a huge bite, careful not to choke.
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u/Relevations 1d ago
Of course, I made no comment on any of that.
Only said that saying that the U.S. is "4% of the world's population" with respect to comparing economic power is like saying Walmart is the most valuable company because it has the most employees. Surely a r/stocks subreddit understands that.
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u/BBpigeon 1d ago
Yeah the US is a prosperous nation that has greatly benefitted from globalization to become an economic powerhouse. What do you think is going to happen when your government decides to all of a sudden opt out of that system? When society can't afford to sell homes for 15% increase YOY? When inflation sky rockets 10%? When the rest of the world is boycotting your tech, services and goods? When your stock market is crashing and global economies are warning of pulling their retirements accounts or ceasing further investment?
Stupid Americans always think their exceptionalism is inherit to the country or the people. No, it's the economic system and geographical realities after world war 2 that made you great and the exact same circumstances can knock you down. The only constant is change and the US is the average age that empires have fallen at historically.
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u/glorylyfe 1d ago
The British empire existed so the British could force people to buy British goods.
America built over decades a world where they didn't have to have an empire to get everyone to buy their stuff. Trump is tearing that down
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u/DavidGQ 1d ago
The guy who bankrupted 7x, don't use logic
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u/SquirrelHoarder 1d ago
Something like 22x bankrupted if you could all the companies that he started and failed, TrumpAir, Trump Steaks, Trump Ice… And so on
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u/TombOfAncientKings 1d ago
I keep saying this, and will keep saying, but Donald Trump does not understand what a tariff is. How can his policy work when he does not understand the most basic fact about it?
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u/zeyore 1d ago
many people think the dumpster fire has a purpose, and was put there for great reasons which the unknowing will never be able to see.
but most people, the vast majority of people, know it's just a fucking fire in a dumpster.
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u/ThenExtension9196 1d ago
Just like his approach to Covid. People thought there was some plan. There wasn’t. It was fumble after fumble until he got the boot.
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u/Imaginary-Level-2735 1d ago
it is just like the approach to covid, but you have it exactly backwards. There was a plan. The majority of his businesses depend on foot traffic. Every move was deliberate and calculated to prevent a shut down so his foot traffic would keep going.
Same here. crashing the US economy is the plan. Depressions are infinitely profitable for the uber-wealthy, especially when they know its coming. And economic devastation is tremendously destabilizing, weak leaders with totalitarian objectives thrive in destabilized societies.
Peoples' tendency to miss greed as a motive and assume stupidity is exactly why cons work.
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u/Boomsnarl 1d ago
It won’t work. The other countries called his bluff already, because they know he is a weak coward.
Canada and the EU are already plotting to get the reserve currency off the US dollar and over to the Euro.
CN is discussing open trade deals with countries hit by the tariffs.
America has already lost. Say goodbye to your stock gains over the last 4 years.
The Orange Idiot didn’t realize our precarious position as the gloval world leader isn’t built around our military strength (we have lost nearly every major military campaign we have had since WWII), or innate economic strength (that faded in the 1970’s). It is built on diplomacy and our ability to make other countries wealthy with our own economy as the ignition for their own prosperity. The global economy is a symbiotic relationship.
This is what idiot anti-globalists like Bannon and Trump don’t understand. They actually believe we are innately powerful just because we are ‘America’, but in reality, we were simply the strongest country left standing after WWII mostly because we stayed out of the majority of the fighting in Europe.
The globalization of the American Economy is pandora’s box. Once open, you can’t reverse course. You can’t magically reopen manufacturing in a few weeks to settle the markets, when it took 40 years to dismantle that infrastructure.
But this complete moron can barely form a sentence, so of course, this plan will fail as it already has. Americans in general is a country of short sighted anti-intellectuals.
We deserve this pain.
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u/TheNesquick 1d ago
Everyday day people on the entire globe is trying to substitute US products where they can. Trump pissed of the entire world. He is not just playing 4d chess with world leaders.
America is going to lose and they don’t understand how much they are gonna lose because they turned everyone against them. This will cost billions and millions in jobs will be lost.
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u/Boomsnarl 1d ago
Oh Trust me the 70+ million of us who voted for Harris knew exactly what would happen.
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u/Purpledragon84 1d ago
My thoughts:
You overestimated the guy's brainpower. He probably isn't even reading a document the length of your post.
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u/Ignoth 1d ago edited 1d ago
People are talking like abuse victims. Trying desperately to rationalize irrational behavior.
There is no master plan.
Trump is a stubborn narcissistic idiot. He likes Tariffs because he likes Tariffs. He doesn’t understand how they work and he surrounds himself with sycophants.
That’s it.
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u/TrynnaFindaBalance 1d ago
Importantly also, he likes tariffs because he already said he likes tariffs. Most politicians are terrible at admitting when they're wrong, but Trump takes it to a whole new level. It was the same thing with Covid and ivermectin/hydroxychloroquine. He had no idea what he was talking about, but as soon as the words left his mouth, that was his new hardline position to take regardless of the consequences.
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u/Substantial_Gain_339 1d ago
I think the strongest example of your claim was his stunt with the sharpie during hurricane Dorian.
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u/Right_Fun_6626 1d ago
He must get off on being able to turn facts into falsehoods and vice-versa, at least 30% of the US just believes whatever he says.
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u/colenotphil 1d ago
There is no master plan.
They said that about Project 2025, of which 43% has already been completed in just 3 months.
Trump does not have a plan. But people advising him do, I think.
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u/FomtBro 1d ago
If project 2025 was the only plan, this would be scary. BUT:
1. The guys who wrote Project 2025 had, frankly, a lot of low hanging fruit goals that fit the general vibe of what Republicans want to do anyway. That doesn't mean the sycophants were actually united in their vision, just that they had at least 1 person with the P2025 pamphlet and a good sales pitch.
- Republicans are, for possibly the first time in my lifetime, genuinely divided. People like Stephen Miller are true believers for the culture war stuff, but only spew the party line on Religion and the Economy because it lets them maintain influence. People like the Heritage foundation have a lot of goals that run directly counter to Elon and his ilk. Trump himself doesn't care about anything but Immigration, the Economy(as he understands it) and 'winning'.
And those are just the true believers. There's at least 3 different factions in the whitehouse that appear to be grifting as their primary (if not only) goal. And lot of those factions have goals that run counter to each other.
As much as I think the truth of the situation is that the group is collectively very stupid, there are absolutely individual groups that have more thought out (if also very dumb) plans.
The problem is those plans all conflict with each other in one way or another (mostly in who gets how much of the theoretical pie at the end) so now they have an unprecedented level of republican infighting.
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u/Right_Fun_6626 1d ago
P2025 is fine with tariffs taking the place of taxes on the wealthy and corporations.
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u/PartlyProfessional 20h ago
This is my first time seeing this website. What the fuck??? And Americans are fucking cheering him??
I don’t even have a word for it, it is like an orphan inheritance getting annihilated
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u/ThenExtension9196 1d ago
Lmfao nah bro. We just weakened ourselves with this. The leverage was being a huge stable-ish economy. That’s gone now.
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u/putupthosewalls 1d ago
He’s doing it so that he can say taxes will increase by x, so now we can cut taxes on the rich by 2 trillion. Just wait.
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u/MrTemecula 1d ago
This is true. Republicans will be claiming all this extra revenue from tariffs to justify their tax cuts, when it's actually a tax on Americans who can least afford it that will be paying taxes for the wealthiest individuals and corporations. It's the biggest con that America will ever see.
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u/fredandlunchbox 1d ago
There’s a large contingent of the right that has always wanted to replace income tax with a sales tax or tariffs (which is kind of a sales tax too). I think they’re testing this out to see if its actually viable.
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u/lev10bard 1d ago
People are just too naive to think it is about the economy. This whole thing is just a revenge arc from Trump because everyone fuck him over after he loss last term. The manufacturing job coming back is moronic because you are telling me Tesla is coming with robot that can do human labor but we want manufacturing back to give more people job? This shit doesn't make sense.
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u/ChuckThisNorris 1d ago
That makes a lot of sense and it's probably the line of thought there. However, there is great risk in that strategy. By antagonizing western democracies, elected leaders will have it very difficult to convince their audience to bow to someone like Trump. Trump is extremely despised outside the MAGA world. So far, there hasn't been a real dissidence because no country on its own would align with another block. However if US sentiment continues to degrade, it is possible for entire blocks to realign and start seeking other shelters.
Imagine a world where China tells the US to stop bullying Canada, Mexico or Europe or they will face consequences...
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u/DazzlingResource561 1d ago
Fighting a war on every front has never worked out for anyone.
When you attack everyone at once, people that were your former allies form alliances with their former enemies.
The only thing Trump is succeeding in is uniting the world against the United States and rapidly accelerating China’s march towards unseating the United States as the world leader. In fact, Trump may do in months what could have taken China decades to do if the United States had competent leadership.
This is the single largest unforced error, or self-own potentially in the history of the World. It makes Brexit look like a nothing burger by comparison. It really leaves only three possible conclusions:
- Trump and his administration are a bunch of buffoons.
- Trump and his administration are puppets of foreign adversaries.
- All of the above
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u/HeelBangs 1d ago
I agree 100%. Buying the market up cheap is just a happy accident, Trump wants everyone begging for his mercy
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u/harm_and_amor 1d ago
Also, only he and his cronies will know in advance which companies/industries to buy right before Trump issues a specific carve out exception.
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u/SnuffleWarrior 1d ago
The challenge for Americans is they've been brain washed since birth on american exceptionalism . Best in everything, pledge of allegiance daily, while ignoring actual facts.
The US is an important player but it's not the only player. When it pisses off everybody because of a clown's ego the rest of the world will move on.
When Trumpsterfire's plan collapses, him and his sock puppets will blame elitists, liberals, wokeism, socialists, WEF , Soros, Democrats, random strangers and random days of the week.
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u/Lower_Set7084 1d ago
These things don't contradict each other. Trump wants to look tough, do blackmail, punish others for "unfairness" and wants America to win in zero-sum games. And he is also dumb and doesn't know what he is doing.
He'd love for people and countries to make a show of submission, but he doesn't have concrete goals for the vast majority of them, as exemplified by Canada getting delayed tariffs for actions they had already previously agreed to with Biden. And he genuinely believes in tariffs as policy, he has talked about them since the 80ies.
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u/No_Mud2447 1d ago
Why does everyone hate me when I do nothing but bully people - every rich person ever.
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u/reddorickt 1d ago
Show me a single example in history where a person took on the entire world simultaneously and won.
The absolute worst strategic move you can make, under any circumstance, is to give your opponents a common enemy that is you.
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u/sarhoshamiral 1d ago edited 1d ago
Leverage on what exactly? Tanking US economy means people in US will have less purchasing power so countries will start to care less about exporting to US.
We also don't manufacture much in US since we sell services. if a car company for example manufactures abroad and sells abroad from that factory they are not affected by tariffs at all even if they are a US based company.
So not only other countries will isolate US now, even large companies with US HQs will isolate their foreign operations to not be impacted by US policies and they may even consider separating their non-US operations to a separate company sharing IP with US counterpart.
If his goal was to strengthen US, he failed at it big time. This week was the beginning of end for US dominance. There is no recovering from this anymore because we just told the whole world to stop taking US seriously.
And to those who say we have military power, while I agree in pure numbers, in practical sense it is not very usable because the second we use our military on a country like China it will be end of humanity due to escalation with nukes.
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u/typkrft 1d ago
That's what he thinks he's doing. What he's really doing is uniting literally every country against the US. Countries are going to be derisking after this, by excluding the US on everything. He's doing more for China right now than China can do for itself over the next decade. 100% chance we see an exponential decrease in countries buying USD as a reserve currency.
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u/jhgggyhkgf 1d ago
Tariffs are for destruction of USA brand abroad. Most US items are being taken off the shelf by businesses, not by governments.
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u/Grungy_Mountain_Man 1d ago
Trump is relying on his intuition. That same intuition which caused his casinos to go bankrupt. Think about that. The basic rule is the house always wins in the end. IF you still don't get it think about it until you do.
You have to be a special kind of stupid to lose in a game that is was already rigged in your favor.
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u/HazyAttorney 1d ago
All of your analysis presupposes that Trump is a rational actor.
All of Trumps political career is vengeance seeking. Why? It turns out, that kind of thinking is coextensive with drug addiction. It goes along the same neural pathway. We also know that he’s been a long time abuser of heavy narcotics and has done so in his first time in office. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/12/12/trump-grievance-addiction-444570
On top of that, you also layer that on Trumps general world view that, despite being the economic hegemon, the world has taken advantage of the US. On top of that, he does not know what a trade deficit means. He thinks that it means the country importing more to the US is taking advantage of the US. That’s why his “tariffs” were calculated by the trade deficit divided by the exports to the US.
The kind of thinking you’ve engaged in is conspiratorial. It’s the desire to render chaos into having underlying logic.
Trumps brain is destroyed by long time drug use and his governance reflects that. Trump has no idea what a trade deficit is nor does he know what a tariff is.
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u/galactojack 1d ago
We keep putting words in his mouth "why he's doing this", speculating
The answer is really quite simple
He's wanted to do this for decades. His incorrect and misinformed beliefs are fully baked in.
He actually believes his bullshit. It's that simple. People are coming up with their own copium, but there's not some grand scheme. Just radically misinformed trade policy.
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u/deepfuckingnwell 1d ago
He thinks he had any leverage but China just said no. Market agrees.
I foresee an additional 15% drop on SPY, bringing us into a depression. This is once in a decade type of economic recession and not your typical 10% correction.
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u/Ok_Watercress2396 1d ago
I might agree with you if he had a track record of leaving the tariffs in place. However, the reality is that he frequently delays, removes, and changes the tariffs.
Also, why would you switch to EU stocks right now? They will be affected by this as well.
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u/ChaseballBat 1d ago
No lol... No. There is not enough head to organize a 195 front economic policy.
He is trying to cause a recession. Cheap loans and betting against the economy will make them billionaires....
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u/Dstrongest 1d ago
imo Mr. Rump is going to tank the economy. meanwhile, all our allies and the Rest of the world are going to turn to china for all their goods, giving America the big middle finger. China will be the biggest winner.
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u/Redditer80 1d ago
This is definitely not 3d chess. This move wasn't going to bring manufacturing here and his deals are bad. He made the deal with Mexico and Canada in the last term and now acting like they are unfair trade partners.
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u/Objective-Ganache866 1d ago
Wow -- Trump really controlled China this morning, eh?
And he really socked it to that Canada boy o boy! (Oh wait, he was told he couldn't)
That's so much controlling, I can smell it.
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u/cannabull89 1d ago
Potentially, or it’s just a tax on all Americans to reduce income tax on billionaires and corporations.
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u/EndlessSummerburn 1d ago
There’s a fourth possibility: this is classic Shock Doctrine disaster capitalism.
Take advantage of chaos (or in this case, manufacture it) so private money can scoop up as much of everything as possible.
The oligarchs are very liquid, even during this downturn. They are set up to take over and combining a weak economy with knee capped government agencies, the GOP is closer to their “small government” fantasy than ever…
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u/Jassokissa 1d ago
Because he is stupid and a bully. He has surrounded himself with yes men and thinks he can bully anyone as he had been used to in the business world... If someone can bankrupt multiple casinos, they aren't that smart..
The whole thing with bring back production to the us won't work, as people do t want to pay that much for the cheap products from China.
The best tinfoil theory I think I've seen is to devalue the dollar. Then you could start producing and exporting stuff. Just import stuff would seem way more expensive. But there's a ton of hurt in that too.
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u/Empty_Afternoon_8746 1d ago
Only if they take a knee to him and it doesn’t look like they plan to.
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u/legible_print 1d ago edited 1d ago
It's not going to work as an intimidation game. Economies will crash, sure, but China will fill the power vacuum. Asia will sell their goods to Europe. Canada will step up as a trade partner. And America will be left behind.
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u/NW-McWisconsin 1d ago
Trump's METHOD for calculating "reciprocal" tariffs is telling. It is merely 1/2 of the percentage of trade deficit with each nation. Not brilliantly simple.... Simply dumb. After working in manufacturing for over 40 years, I've always loved making things. But I learned that I'm not in the majority. Factory work is hard, frustrating and complex. I was even told by "supply chain experts", that manufacturing was old thinking. AND could 4% of the world population (U.S.) really make everything the world needs? Hardly. Expecting ALL suppliers to buy equal amounts they provide, is insane. Just not logical. I too, wondered why would Trump do this? Could it be that he will zoom in and fix the economy he's breaking? I just can't think like a wealthy ego.
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u/Visual-Recognition36 1d ago
Couldn’t the majority of countries band together and just exclude any trade from the USA and move on without them?
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u/Accomplished-Dot-891 1d ago
Other countries are already uiting over this. In a while they whil simple not trade with US anymore or far lees the before. Hes even uniting sworn enemies in asia over this. US will be paria like nord koreau if goes on like this
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u/chunter16 1d ago
You're not wrong, I think the endgame is to get worldwide leaders to declare their fealty and allegiance, but that is the exact reason why it is backfiring.
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u/SomeSamples 1d ago
It won't work though. Countries will set up trade agreements and economic blocks that will do business with nations around the world without the U.S. being included. The U.S. will be left out and lose out.
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u/mortonr2000 1d ago
No, we won't. At the moment, we all think the US is a piss poor ally and worse trading partner. You do know there are other countries we can deal with. You guys have fun trading with Russia.
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u/Fadamsmithflyertalk 1d ago
Only the second amendment can cure this....not only to the Fanta Felon but also his enablers.
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u/roadtrip-ne 1d ago
He’s crashing the economy on purpose. Things are going as planned. High unemployment is going to reset all those wage gains people made during Covid. People working at McDonald’s will go back to $7.25 an hour because it will be that or starve to death.
I also suspect once the economy is completely tanked, he’ll launch an attack on Iran, and WW3 will be everybody’s focus.
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u/Hobojoe- 1d ago
There is no leverage. Capital and dollar will just move. It's just a matter of time. Trump will just rule over ashes. The only reason USA was a global leader because it was the biggest buy of all products and the world's financial centre. There is no leverage if you decide to lose that status over night. Trump has abdicated that responsibility to Europe.
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u/Praxical_Magic 1d ago
Yes, look up the Mar-a-lago Accord. The plan is to force other countries to keep the dollar as reserve currency while allowing the dollar to become weaker to lower the price of US exports to other countries so they can be competitive. While Trump is too stupid to come up with this, other members of his team have written papers on this topic.
That said, the exact shape of this is unknown. I've heard the deal will include importing a certain threshold from the US, forcing nations to buy 100 year non-transferrable low interest Treasury notes to lower US interest payments, make other nations pay dues for access to the US market/military protection/offsets for any tariffs, create rules to prevent currency manipulation, etc.
It is very important that other nations do not agree to this. It is extortion by a leader who has shown a willingness to rip up agreements. The world needs to just cut the US out of the world economy and wait for us to beg to come back.
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u/Personal-Act-9795 1d ago
The US is screwed either way though, if he devalues dollar that will increase inflation even further in the US.
If he doesn't then the businesses that do want to export out of the US won't be competitive.
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u/Praxical_Magic 1d ago
Just wanted to mention you could have the dollar weaken with respect to other currencies without losing buying power, but you'd have to bring all supply chains local first, so we'd be doing it in the wrong order...
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u/kenny_powers7 1d ago
10 years later it’s shocking to me nobody sees the true reason behind all his actions is to stroke his ridiculous ego. Every single decision is driven by that
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u/avocadogirl89 1d ago
I hope everyone now realizes that us Americans are the real losers in this deal…and the reason why his “goals” don’t make any plausible sense is because the ONLY real goal is to devalue companies so that his billionaire friends can buy them up in the largest transfer of wealth in history.
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u/logic_over_emotion_ 1d ago edited 1d ago
I don’t necessarily agree that this will work as he intends, and think his communication/diplomacy on it was terrible, but if making the argument in good faith, I’ve read other theories on the purpose behind the tariffs.
- Lifting trade barriers from other nations, so we can increase exports. There’s a recent 400 page report (https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Reports/2025NTE.pdf) that details a country-by-country breakdown on various ways they charge the USA on imports.
It’s done in various ways, sometimes transparent, sometimes subtle, includes: tariffs, inflated customs duties, harbor maintenance (ports), high inspection fees, import license markups, Value Added Tax (VAT) - the countries that apply this to foreign goods but not domestic, border adjustment taxes, currency manipulation.
There’s bipartisan agreement historically that countries are abusing the trading system at USA’s expense, particularly China. You can find older speeches from Pelosi, Obama, and Sanders calling out China’s unfair trade and calling for tariffs.
Key example, even though China is the world’s 2nd largest economy, a manufacturing powerhouse, and a nuclear power, they have managed to keep themselves labeled as a ‘developing country’ by the WTO, enabling them to get many forms of benefits and abuse trade further. I’d recommend researching this in particular if interested.
Debt Relief and Restructuring:
Our debt is a particular concern this year, with 9.2 trillion maturing in 2025. By adding widespread tariffs, it can be argued he’s going to trigger a controlled short-term economic slowdown on purpose. The idea being:
• Cool down overheating sectors. • Give the Fed cover to cut interest rates. • Create a window to refinance U.S. debt at lower yields.
Push Down the U.S. Dollar - a weaker dollar would:
• Boost U.S. exports. • Narrow the trade deficit. • Increase domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign capital. • Enhance energy exports and manufacturing sectors.
Drive Treasury Yields Lower (especially 5yr/10yr)
A downturn increases demand for safe-haven U.S. debt. Combined with Fed policy shifts, this could bring yields on long-term bonds down significantly. Note - If this is the intention, it has started to work: 10yr T bond was 4.82% at end of Dec2024. As of this morning 04Apr, it’s dipped below 4% for the first time in 6 months.
• Would allow the Treasury to refinance at ultra-low long-term rates. • Lock in cheaper debt for many years and reduce the burden of interest payments.
Force the Federal Reserve’s Hand
Trump has criticized the Fed for keeping rates too high. A short-term slowdown gives him ability to pressure the Fed into cutting rates and keep the U.S. economic engine moving via low-cost credit.
The U.S. is in a bind: record debt + rising interest payments = long-term crisis. Key stat: The interest on our debt (before cuts/current actions) was projected to be nearly a trillion dollars this year (952 billion). More than military or any other discretionary category and nearly 20% of annual revenue.
TLDR: Overall, Trump’s aggressive tariff moves could be seen as a goal to: Reduce foreign trade barriers to increase exports and GDP. Force a one-time strategic reset. Lower average interest costs on the national debt. Avoid a catastrophic spike in debt servicing costs. Preserving dollar’s global reserve status by mitigating proactively.
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u/orangehorton 1d ago
Why is increasing exports a good thing? What makes you think the world will buy expensive American products? It certainly wouldn't increase GDP
What makes you think Americans want lower paying manufacturing jobs rather than higher income services jobs?
Interest rates will not go down, all his policies cause inflation. If he really cared about debt, maybe he should stop giving tax cuts to the wealthy
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u/Dstrongest 1d ago
They are about to be the number one economy in the world. Thanks Mr. Rump did that.
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u/raybond007 1d ago edited 1d ago
I love all the people who complain about China's "unfair practices", including manipulating the value of their currency. Then in the exact same breath suggest that this is also part of Donald Trump's master plan to devalue the US currency in order to reduce the real value of the national debt and boost exports.
Then you're all fucking shocked why everyone else in the world agrees that this is stupid bullshit and continues to reduce trade barriers with each other while erecting more barriers and diversifying away from the US.
Edit to add: I'll clarify that by engaging in these actions the US is throwing away an enormous competitive advantage when competing with China for international trade. You used to be able to point to that and say "See that bullshit they pull? We don't do that. We're stable, we're reliable, let us be your reserve currency".
Engaging in tit-for-tat and trying to play the same game as regimes like China is a losing proposition for the US. You don't play their game, you play your own.
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u/c-u-in-da-ballpit 1d ago
He’s doing this to force treasury yields lower and tick up unemployment so the FEDs hand is forced. There’s like $20 trillion in debt maturing over his term at 2%. Refinancing that at 5% is untenable to his plan to eliminate income tax, which is his ultimate goal.
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u/ElektroThrow 1d ago
Nah. He’s pissing off the world so nobody wants to come and help when they start locking up political prisoners next election. These policy changes will make everyday people and businesses men poorer, except those close to Trump and his policy team. Corporations will bend the knee because they’re bitches who don’t have an American bone in their body, just chasing $.
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u/No-Efficiency8991 1d ago
It is peculiar that the tarrifs hit these types of countries. I admit, I have no clue what Trumps goal is here. I don't think anyone does. Thats a powerful weapon in his favor, if he weirds it correctly.
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u/ThrowawayAl2018 1d ago
Nobody cares about the clown's intention, we only care about the bottom and it is looking good today.
S&P500 dropped almost 20%, time to drop some cash while stocks are cheap. Or just buy QQQ and DCA.
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u/FantasyFrikadel 1d ago
It’s common knowledge in Europe that he is en route to be the first orange dictator.
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u/Siceless 1d ago
I think the US economy is pretty resilient, it also recovered much better than many other nations with similarly modern economies. In a limited trade war, perhaps leveraging tarrifs and restrictions on trade would therefore be advantageous. That said...
Taking on all other economies simultaneously is easily the worst, most poorly thought out strategy I've ever seen. Also initiating trade conflicts with close allies is a tremendous mistep.
To me the issue isn't the trade war. I believe that certain countries where trade with the US has been problematic for us should be the focus of this. China has subverted IP, had it's own trade restrictions, and regularly has ignored the US's requests to change course.
The best strategy to me would be to go after the countries where this has been an ongoing widespread issue and to work together with allies and trade partners to achieve those goals. Starting trade conflicts globally is absolutely a piss poor strategy and it will likely cost us dearly.
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u/diabolical_fuk 1d ago
Yes they are political weapons. But he's not going to get the leverage he wants or expects. The world is a lot bigger than just some tech companies. What if they just start boycotting the tech companies the way they did with Tesla? I mean it looks like Elon is already on the way out with his image forever tarnished.
"Good news for folks as we start the weekend. The stock market going strong is a sign of confidence in America’s economy." -Joe Biden
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u/BallsOfStonk 1d ago
This is 100% true.
There is no other reason. They are a huge negative for the global economy, especially the U.S.
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u/omglemurs 1d ago
You're giving too much credit to the so called 'smart people in the room'. I think they saw this as an opportunity to do multiple things at once
- Extract concessions from wealthy individuals to try and solidify a loyal oligarchy class
- Bully the world economy so they could assert more direct control
If you look at history, it's playing out exactly as you might expect if you try and merge the Smoot-Hawley Tariff act in the 1930s and Putin's consolidation of power in the early 2000s.
It like someone read the Russian copy of early 2000s history and some of the economic drivel Reed Smoot was selling in the late 1920s and didn't bother to see what happened next.
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u/commoncollector 1d ago
How is Americans paying more for products giving leverage to the US? You know those countries will just trade with each other instead right? Last time Trump increased tariffs on China, China became the first world export by a huge margin.
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u/harmoni-pet 1d ago
This is definitely what he's doing. He wants countries and companies to come to him hat in hand begging for mercy so he can pick and choose what succeeds and fails, while also asking for personal favors or loyalty in the process. It's not a novel concept in other countries. We just think of it as old-world corruption.
What we'll see in the coming weeks is a lot of these tariffs being rolled back or with a lot of added exceptions for people who have bent the knee.
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u/danvapes_ 1d ago
Money & Macro had an interesting video uploaded the other day about what Trump's plans are. He mentioned that long term Trump wants to see a world where the US has weakened its currency in order to bring back manufacturing, charge countries fees to have trade agreements with the US, and force countries to convert US debt they hold into 100 year bonds.
He wants a bunch of vassal states. I thought it was an interesting perspective, do with it how you feel.
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u/faxanaduu 1d ago
I think there are multiple reasons, that you alluded to, including that he's just a delusional dumb dumb.
I think he miscalculated. He was willing to take the risk, and gamble. He has nothing to lose in his mind, he's dreamt of being in this position his entire life.
But he will lose. But in the process the world is losing, and burning down. The question I have is.... When will he be stopped. How will that unfold, and how terribly will we ALL suffer until then. Im fearful of this because Im barely holding onto my job and my net worth has decreased by 25% in the past 2 months. And that's with careful rebalancing and taking some profits over a month ago.
I actually think there's going to be massive unrest and upheaval. It's already happening but it will explode very soon. I think one of the scenarios is that he'll be taken out. Bery rich and powerful people are feeling this, so yeah that won't go on too long I'm thinking.
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u/the_cappers 1d ago
Problem is, the only time this even remotely works is when we and OUR allies are united . We are a import economy. We literally need the world more than the world needs us. Even then, there are counter alliances to get around american sanctions and get non tariff goods.
Also assuming he (trump) gets his way, who's loaning the american business money for start up. Trump might not look 4 years forwards, but banks do.
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u/cruisin_urchin87 1d ago
That is why so many investors and traders are confused.
The dude is using the market as a political weapon.
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u/cantcatchafish 1d ago
As long as we can vote we can change. There's enough weapons to oppose trump and impeach him or ruin him. The question is how much will it take until we implement those or are we just going to let the next 3.7 years happen? At this point he wouldn't be reelected even if he could be.
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u/Ill_Butterscotch1248 1d ago
Tactics are blackmail & extortion! Threaten others’ sovereignty & economic status while expecting no consequences coming home to roost is the plan of the demented & maniacal REPs & tRumpanzees! American citizens will pay the same price as the rest of the planet & wonder how this ever happened when he’s just Making America Great Again! Voting choices have consequences. Remember that in 2 years!!!
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u/always_plan_in_advan 1d ago
Your leverage is lost when it’s multiple countries and they start uniting against trump
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u/joan_goodman 1d ago
He is just destroying America: world power, economy, democracy. He is agent Krasnov. Idk what they have on him.
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u/scytob 1d ago
tl;dr he is a bully using schoolyard bully tatics
this is what he has does his entire life in both personal, business and poliotical contexts - its just inherent to the way he is.
i think many of us get this and have alwasy got this, the question for me is how concious vs unconcious this is - my observation is the latter as evidenced by the flip flopping when he realizes something doesn't work
as for the stupid part - well he genuinely seems to not understand tarrifs are taxes on americans
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u/FomtBro 1d ago edited 1d ago
This is just bullet point 3 with more words.
Like, the plan having a consistent internal logic doesn't make it any less stupid. Having Johnny the Fuckup Intern make tariffs with ChatGPT doesn't become a calculated strategic move because the exact % of the tariffs isn't totally relevant.
For analogy: Using a perfectly tuned Formula 1 car doesn't make driving off a cliff any smarter.
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u/design_doc 1d ago
When he was initially just targeting Canada, yes, it was a political weapon as you can use the weight of the USA to crush a single adversary. Tariffs are a self-inflicted wound that does damage to another country/industry like a voodoo doll - however, if you apply too many you die a death from a thousand cuts. So when you start slapping tariffs on everyone like Oprah giving away new cars you lose leverage and power because you are bleeding resources in too many directions.
I don’t interpret business leaders reading him the riot act as them kowtowing to him but rather trying to slap him back in the direction of furthering their goals (because he’s now causing irreparable damage that they’ll struggle to recover from).
Look at the bullshit he’s pulled with Lockheed and Boeing. His comments have been REALLY bad for business for them and I’m pretty sure he’s getting long in the tooth around those camps. I honestly think it’s a miracle Trump hasn’t been “removed” by either of those two alone.
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u/Dang3300 1d ago
Tries to create "leverage" -> Country allies more with China -> surprised Pikachu face
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u/techaaron 1d ago
It's nothing more than a planned recession which will transfer wealth to capital owners and the billionaire class.
No 8D chess. Same old.
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u/skilliard7 1d ago
I agree, I sold a lot in January and loaded up on 30 year TIPS, but IMO now is the time to buy stocks. The selloff is an overreaction. Even if tariffs stay in effect, the US economy has survived far worse conditions. Imports are only about 10% of our GDP. Assuming a blended average tariff rate of 25%, that's 2.5% of GDP. A more than 20% selloff on tech stocks and small cap value is excessive.
Could the market sell off more? For sure. But the key is to keep buying. Especially in cheap markets like South Korea.
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u/Delicious_Leading600 1d ago
Kiss the ring and I shall save you. You then will owe me your allegiance.
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u/radcompany89 1d ago
We’ll just build some factories with imported materials. How long could that possibly take?
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u/DragonArchaeologist 1d ago
Trump made these tariffs on ChatGPT and didn't even double check them. That's why he put tariffs on imports from uninhabited islands.
For most of the countries on his tariff list, there's simply no point to gaining leverage. It's meaningfless.
He even levied tariffs on countries we actually have free trade with, like Singapore.
In fact, he slapped higher tariffs on Singapore than on Brazil, which actually does significantly tariff American imports.
In sum, there is no strategy, no thought to this. You're fooling yourself if you believe otherwise. And, right now, a lot of people are fooling themselves.
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u/StandardAd7812 1d ago
If your point is that this creates huge opportunities for him to be bribed and that may be the motivator - definitely possible.
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u/purplebrown_updown 1d ago
I wouldn't put it past him, but places like China are not going to sit there and take it. Trump surrounds himself with sycophants who make him believe everyone respects him, but we all know that is not the case. The world knows this is the time to strike while the iron is hot and inflict more economic impact on the US.
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u/goonerish_ 1d ago
You're reading too much into this. Trump is a simple man. He was on a mission till 2020 when he got voted out. And stuff happened after. He wants to take back the market to 2020 levels, and then start with his WINNING plans all over again. Trust the guy. He only has good intentions.
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u/runmeupmate 1d ago
this is the correct opinion; his advisors have outright stated this is the point via the mar-a-lago accord. It's about leverage, although re-shoring is almost impossible on this scale
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u/Real_Difficulty3281 1d ago
You are with America or you are against America. This country is a ship and whether anyone likes in or not he’s the captain. You either want the boat to stay afloat or sink. And those who are on the boat and would like everyone to sink and drown because they don’t like the captain are threats to everyone.
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u/DeliveryOk7892 1d ago
Bro companies have a very easy choice if they want to avoid tariffs: raise prices for U.S. consumers.
It really isn’t that deep and Trump doesn’t have that much leverage because not many people overall buy US goods abroad anyway.
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u/ksurf619 1d ago
Why do people always think this moron is playing 4d chess. Trump doesn’t even fundamentally understand the impact of tariffs, let alone, some nuance use of them.
This dude is an idiot. There’s no rationalizing the irrational.
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u/milwaukeetechno 1d ago
This is the reason. Now he will have people to exempt their company, industry or country. He will benefit personally and get to control who wins and who loses.
He is a madman that only Congress can stop.
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u/mediumcups 1d ago
what leverage does he have?
A government willing to capitulate to his demands is just committing political suicide.
Besides, he just pissed off the whole world. Capitulating to his demands may be less palatable compared to just making new trade ties elsewhere. Look at what happened after he cancelled the TPP in 2017, we had a China version of the TPP.
Second, China's rare earth ban is a much bigger salvo than his tariffs. America needs rare earth if she wants to bring back American manufacturing. Now she's kneecapped and every country knows it and they're going to fleece America for whatever she has.
It was shameful when America had to beg Denmark for eggs. But watch as she has to beg countries for rare earths.
The US economy is going to take years to recover from this.
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u/No-Response-2927 1d ago
I think China, South Korea & Japan should show Trump and the Heritage Foundation that it's not easy to blackmail the whole world. Business must be a 2 way process it must benefit a company or a country for them to either purchase, U.S. weapons, U.S. currency, or to move manufacturing over to the U.S.
Is it cheaper to manufacture in Vietnam or the U.S. ?
Apparently one of the reasons for the Iraq war was that Saddam wanted to use the Euro to purchase oil and not the dollar!
I'm pretty sure A.I will take a lot of jobs anyhow both white collar and blue collar jobs alike. If the U.S. has made cuts to Medicaid, and other government departments why not use that money to make factories or A.I. plants? I don't think starting a trade war will help any country and it will push the doomsday clock even further.
I think the Republican party needs a dictatorship because if they hold proper elections both mid-terms and the general election there's a good chance they will be ousted and to answer for DOGE at the very least.
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u/Helmidoric_of_York 1d ago
While Trump may see it as leverage, others just see it as him shitting the bed. Other leaders have a lot more spine than American politicians and business leaders do. They can choose to decouple from the US and forge alliances with other countries. Americans can't. Trump has thrown too much shit against the wall besides tariffs [at the same time], and to dismiss the national security and sovereignty of our traditional allies has demolished all the trust that global economic activity is based upon. They also know Trump doesn't care about anyone else nor does he pay his bills or keep his promises, so there's nothing to be gained thru capitulation except for more pain. All the copium in the world won't matter when large and small US companies start firing people by the thousands and GDP shrinks the most since the Great Depression. No tax revenue means no government, since nobody will finance our debt. Grover Norquist has almost achieved his long-fought battle with the federal government. What a tragedy for America and the World!
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u/RiffyWammel 1d ago
Well he’s doing a sterling job of getting all the rest of the world talking trade deals with each other and pretty much taking a step away from America and its unreliability/instability- what an absolute genius of a business move eh? 🙄
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u/Pantalaimon_II 1d ago
i said this yesterday. he’s an egomaniac and he’s probably got his gross mushroom fully erect at the thought of the actual whole world having to kiss his ass and ask for a “deal” aka stroke his ego.
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u/Away_Advisor3460 1d ago
I don't know why it isn't plausible it's all 3.
Also, Trump is one of the laziest men on earth, and with a history of terrible business judgement. It's entirely plausible he has his own half-baked agenda, whilst simultaneously cribbing his homework from Mush and Project 2025, even if some or all three ultimately are conflicting. I mean, does anyone believe a man famous for needing his security briefings presented as bullet points and pictures was reading all those executive orders he signed?
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u/BoggsMill 1d ago
It's not that complicated. He just submitted paperwork to sell $2B of his shitcoin. He's sinking the markets to buy everything up.
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u/Fleetlog 1d ago
The point of tarrifs in the trump world is isolation pure and simple.
Look at the leaked signal chat.
They see any foreign entanglement as a liability.
The goal is to End Trade. Full stop.
They won't say that in public it's too unpopular and they know it.
But they are creating every possible incentive to end us exports and imports.
It's the stupidest fucking idea anyone has had in Washington in the last hundred years, but no one accused them of being stable geniuses.
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u/biggles86 1d ago
I mean maybe, but that's like saying "i shot both of my feet so I have leverage over the hospital"
When you fight everyone, you don't have much leverage left
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