What happens on Monday
The market open down big today, rallied a bit, then continues to deteriorate further today (Friday). Today is worse than yesterday so far and we have another hour and a half. What do you guys think will happen at Monday's open, down or up? People will have time to hear more (bad) news over the weekend. And think about it. Wonder if it will tank more.
I really haven't read any good news from all this tariff action.
(Disclosure: I am long a silver stock I have been holding long-term and short Tesla via TSLQ. Gotta decide if I will stay in TSLQ into Monday.)
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u/themaxvoltage 1d ago
Market rarely tests a bottom on Fridays. That said, trump could just decide Saturday that tariffs are bad and Democrats are bad for implementing such extreme tariffs and he will use his mandate to revoke the Biden Tariffs and save the market.
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u/mulefluffer 1d ago
The scary thing is his base would believe it.
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u/__Evil-Genius__ 1d ago
As long Fox News tells them - it is so.
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u/MysteryPerker 1d ago
LoL you say that and the entire front page of Fox News.com mentions not a single article on the stock market crash. Just articles about how some business groups are happy about tariffs, and China putting on retaliatory tariffs. Oh, and the top story was about an anti-abortion activist getting attacked and they had a few scratches.
Edit to mention I forgot the second place article was about Kamala fucking Harris. Who tf cares about Kamala Harris right now? Fox news apparently
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u/bobpage2 1d ago
Don't forget the fourth most important news is always about some trans person playing sports.
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u/awesomeness1234 1d ago
Holy shit. I've never been to Fox news before. Its...abhorrent. how can anyone suffer that trash?!
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u/ActionJax13 1d ago
Have you been over to r/conservative? None of those idiots think this is a big deal and are sure this is a good thing. They also post about everything but the biggest story in the world
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u/lochnah 18h ago
It’s really weird to see such a politically biased news channel. In my country, while some channels have biased opinions, they still try to be as neutral as possible.
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u/Dr-McLuvin 1d ago
I don’t give a shit I just want tariffs to go away lol.
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u/Takemyfishplease 1d ago
With the constant fear of them coming back at a moments notice the market isn’t going to correct
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u/respondswithvigor 1d ago
Me too at this point. You can’t change the mind of a cult. They’ll just need to fade away due to diabetes and other health issues
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u/Esternaefil 1d ago
I would laugh so fucking hard at this.
It's just absolute tomfoolery at this point.
I'm tired, man.
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u/Desperate-Ad7319 1d ago
The issue in the market isn’t the tariffs themselves because those will have a long term affect. The issue is the volatility that they can be put on and dropped at any time.
Removing the tariffs may stop the bleeding but would people be excited to jump back in?
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u/Opeth4Lyfe 1d ago
Well If they knew that a companies profits will go from -30% to maybe -10% instead, that will affect the fundamentals and thusly the stock price. Going from really bad to not that bad can still inject some confidence that things can be undone and rebuilt in the right direction. But i don’t know shit about fuck so my guess is just as good as anyone else’s.
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u/Desperate-Ad7319 1d ago
Sure but I think the underlying question is how do we know he won’t put them back up tomorrow.
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u/Ashamed_Ad_8365 1d ago
The longer these tariffs stay in place without reprieve, the lower we go. So if nothing happens over the weekend, Monday is going below 5000 in the S&P
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u/kunzinator 1d ago
Agreed. This is all just off the news of them, wait until the real world effects of them hit.
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u/orangehorton 1d ago
Let me ask my crystal ball
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u/seeking_answers007 1d ago
Mine says 🚀 what does yous say?
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u/Typingman 1d ago
Crazy that a single person can rain down executive orders so quickly that it can wipe out trillions from the world economy in a few days. That’s the problem right there.
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u/VerticallFall 18h ago
If you think Trump is ruling alone I've a bridge to sell you. He's just a face to push whatever agenda far right is pushing.
There are a lot more people involved i decision making than you might realize.
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u/K-space626 1d ago
all we know is the engineered chaos is predictably unpredictable.
but have you even said "thank you"?
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u/ozmosisam 1d ago
One important thing to remember in the midst of all this chaos: this was all self-engineered. One man did this. Unlike most of the crises of the past, this was all done by a person and his group of lackeys who went against the advice of all economists.
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u/Parallel-Quality 1d ago
Congress is also complicit. They have the power to stop him.
Standing by and letting him do this is the same as helping him do this.
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u/unevenvenue 1d ago
Also, 27% of the American population too dumb to understand simple economics, that voted for the loon, are also responsible.
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u/SheridanVsLennier 1d ago
As long as he's "hurting the right people" they'll eat the tariffs and say thank you.
To do otherwise is be be on the outside of the group. Possably the only real group they've belonged to in their lives.→ More replies (1)10
u/Relevations 1d ago
No, we are ultimately responsible.
We continued to give the presidential position so much power in this country that he could singlehandedly destroy the economy unilaterally. We never stopped to think that maybe putting checks on the position would be a good idea.
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u/CalebAsimov 1d ago
I guarantee you Trump polls very high among libertarians. You're gonna No True Scotsman me on this but I'm completely serious. Libertarians are made up of rich people who don't want regulations and naive people that think if the government just didn't try solving problems, problems would solve themselves. The first group is using the second group. Then there's a third group that wants to do drugs, which I'll admit I'm the most sympathetic to. But the first two groups are pretty firmly in the Trump camp.
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u/ozmosisam 1d ago
I mean, yeah. I blame every single Trump supporter for it. I'm one of your neighbors in the north, and several people I knew who were supporting him are now singing a different tune. One friend works for a famous tech company whose shares fell more than half since Dec, and he's now fearing for his job.
I no longer am in touch with them. Everyone knew what he was going to do. He said it himself. Yet they still supported him. That tells me all I need to know about people.
Personally, I feel gutted myself. We were going to buy a house this year, and we were this close, were almost there, but that dream seems to be on ice for the time being.
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u/Relevations 1d ago
Literally every single American other than the most fervent of libertarians have been apathetic towards the growth of presidential power. MAGA supporters lit the match, everyone poured the gas.
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u/Dr-McLuvin 1d ago
There ARE checks and balances though. Congress just needs to act. We are doing lasting damage to our economy.
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u/mazzaschi 1d ago
S&P500 is approaching 6% down. At 7% down it has to sit on the naughty step for 15 minutes.
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u/pssssn 1d ago
I feel like the first circuit breaker doesn't do a lot in this trading environment. It's meant to give everyone a moment to breath and calm down on massive, quick swings. Not the slow implosion of the American stock market over days.
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u/OrwellWhatever 1d ago
The first circuit breaker is for the algorithms. We've seen a couple of flash crashes years ago where the S&P dropped to the first one in five minutes for seemingly no good reason only to bounce back just after the cooling off period
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u/Clumsy_Eagle 1d ago
I’m not buying until I count at 100 countries retaliation has been completed. Don’t forget EU Canada Japan and South Korea are still planning to… those together will have bigger impact than the Chinese.
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u/Elongated_Sack 1d ago
Stocks will fall until all countries implement their retaliations. If they are bad enough for global economies we go down, if they are mild trade sideways until tariffs are called off.
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u/Venal_Apprehension 1d ago
Powell didn't cut interest rates, even though Donny was screaming full-on from his Truth den, so either it stays the same or goes down. There ain't no upside until China or Trump cave but it ain't happening, not till the end moments of the deadline.
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u/USACivilTsar 1d ago
Tariffs don't go away overnight, even if Trump retracted them the US economy isn't going to magically reset. If you're looking longer term, the next year is going to be bad...real bad. Invest in yourself, work on your hard and soft skills, pay down debt and get ready for this storm coming.
I pulled everything out of the market Feb 3rd, against what a lot of people said was stupid...even here on Reddit. Glad I didn't listen. You think what's coming this summer is priced in today? Nooooope.
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u/SubiWhale 1d ago
Fucking finally someone in this thread who said it right. Even if Trump reverses overnight, targeted countries (all of them) aren’t just gonna say “oh ok! All is forgiven.”
The US has lost its world standing. It’s becoming clear that the USD isn’t to be trusted and that US cooperation and friendship is too fragile to be relied on. This is the end of the dollar unless we remove conservatism from US politics and pass serious legislation to prevent this from ever happening again.
Had a similar experience as you. Got SUPER downvoted for saying that I’ve liquidated and started to bet against the market. People said I was gloating for betting against the US.
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u/USACivilTsar 1d ago
Good to hear you got out! Sleep feels good hey!? lol.
I'm Canadian and I'll be keeping my funds out of anything North American for quite a while. I support my country, but I support my family first...I'm not letting billionaires make me hold the bags...
I've even invested in some Italian guns...not as snazzy as what you can get in the US...but it's an insurance policy I hope I never need.
This dive was just as predictable as covid...I had many friends who were 10-20 years ahead of me (age and investment wise) who sold before the drop, put it back in and nearly doubled their money in a few months. They retired very comfortably...they all said the same thing about what's happening now. Reddit said the opposite and criticized who I was getting my advice from...but yet I should take it all from Reddit? lol.
Sleep tight buddy! A thousand saved is a thousand earned! :)
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u/IAmDisturbanceFeedMe 1d ago
Agreed. I had like 20-30% out as cash in my brokerage first month of his term and then pulled majority out late February when the crash started. I even moved most of my 401k money into cash/bond funds. I started learning about inverse plays in mid to late March and have been successfully using them the past 2 weeks to make money. They’re risky and volatile so I wouldn’t necessarily recommend them but they’re there if investors want to try making money off them.
They say you can’t time the market but this has been quite a predictable exception. All the signs were there for major risks. Coming into April specifically had loads of risks and very little upside. It just made sense IMO to temporarily be more in cash than stocks to see how things played out.
There are still several risks ahead this month: Chinese ships potential levees, earnings season which based on companies with March earnings will be bad with poor future guidance, retaliatory tariffs (and potential US retaliation to that).
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u/One_Struggle_ 1d ago
Same, cashed out everything weeks ago. The next two to three years minimum is going to be rough. The stock market needs stability. Nothing stable about Trump.
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u/USACivilTsar 1d ago
Yup! I sold off some rental properties, job losses during covid were rough...don't need to go through that again with the economy tanking. I'll sit on the cash till it's ready to go, or I'll move it elsewhere overseas. The US is a dumpster fire and it'll affect Canada too, sucks but I'm not going to hold bags for billionaires...
Kudos to you cashing out as well!!!! Sleep feels so good hey!? lol
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u/CockItUp 1d ago
If nothing happens over the weekend then the market can go up a little. If Europe or India announce retaliation, another 5%=down.
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u/ivobrick 1d ago
I guess it will be worse, because asians are very angry, not just chineese (34%).
Then, in the middle of the month europeans decide what to do - we simply abandon us market if you dont cancel tariffs. Not you ofcourse but Trump. Overall pretty dull responses from govt.
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u/Dealer_Existing 1d ago
Just sit on your cash and wait the chaos out amigo, a lot more hours of sleep that way
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u/Draymond_Punch 1d ago
But the market is likely gonna start going up before you realize the chaos is over, so you still have to know when to get back in
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u/Dealer_Existing 1d ago
Yeah I don’t mind missing 10% if that means to wait the chaos out. Lost to much already on the chaos
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u/USACivilTsar 1d ago
It's not going to bump up 10% on the S&P in one day, it is going to tumble down and down though... Putin says so.
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u/RichmondReddit 1d ago
All you’re doing is locking in the losses. The time to get out of the market was before Trump became president. It’s way too late to sell out.
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u/Dealer_Existing 1d ago
Yeah rather have more cash for the bigger dip, losses are already there anyway. It’s a myth that they aren’t if you don’t sell
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u/MilfAndCereal 1d ago
I bought yesterday and I bought today. If we get another -5% day Monday, I'm buying again.
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u/NotBettingOnTmrw 1d ago
Maybe the best thing would be to give the markets a week off, shut everything down
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u/RMDashRFCommit 1d ago
Dow Jones has erased an entire year of growth as of 3PM EST on Friday.
Do I hear 2 years of growth erased?
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u/Professional-Cry8310 1d ago
If it’s a quiet weekend and nothing happens then probably just a small movement up or down.
But the odds of it being a quiet weekend..? Probably not great lmao. I expect a bigger swing up or down either way.
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u/EligiusV 1d ago
Probably a continuation... I have no reason to believe well suddenly have an influx of buyers into this market.
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u/Grouchy_System6535 1d ago
My guess is we test 4600 at least. Wouldn’t be surprised if we get below 4000. No sustained rally until late summer, fall at the best.
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u/polecy 1d ago
Recessions are not over in a week let alone a month. Expect bull days but mostly bear days. Unless somehow every country gives us literal cash and free stuff I doubt the stock market will recover in a month.
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u/CVisionIsMyJam 1d ago
depends on what happens on the weekend. it is hard to imagine worse news coming out than what happened this week & not crazy to think he might announce delaying tariffs beyond april 9th over the weekend...
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u/geo0rgi 1d ago
Europe, Japan, South Korea are yet to announce counter measures. This is just the beginning
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u/DragonOfBosnia 1d ago
Exactly this, if they are smart they should announce it when the US stock market is bleeding hard. Put even more pressure on Trump. Who goes into a damn trade war on all fronts.. dumb
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u/RespectTheAmish 1d ago
That’s what I was thinking.
You’ll know how bad we are fucked if the EU announces retaliatory tariffs on Monday at 6am. Then India on Tuesday. Korea on Wednesday. Japan on Thursday.
There will just be a smoldering crater in New York City where the NYSE once stood. …
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u/USACivilTsar 1d ago
And the cost of Trumps tariffs won't start impacting for another month or two. It's going to be hell for lower and middle class Americans.
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u/Consistent_Panda5891 1d ago
I think Tesla gonna crash to 200 this month. The question is only if this weekend or not. I think we can test the circuit breakers today. Would be the most common so in news
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u/OrangeArch 1d ago
I imagine it falls a little further and then levels out until economic data starts trickling in on just how bad these tariffs are for everyone. Gotta think this year is going to be a bloodbath overall.
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u/Coyotewongo 1d ago
Trump bends over sideways over the weekend while Golfing and Stonks skyrocket green on Monday. I placed a bet on it.
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u/jackflash223 1d ago
The uncertainty surrounding next week is huge. Unless we are walking back a bunch of stuff that has occurred the long term trend is going to still be down, but remember even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height. Small short term rallies will happen on our journey to the center of the Earth.
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u/methgator7 1d ago
I think the better question is, what would it take for the market to open higher on Monday?
The low hanging fruit would be that other countries negotiate tariff rates lower over the weekend
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u/BraveTree4481 1d ago
There will be a dead cat bounce at some point but overall we aren't even close to done.
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u/graphixRbad 1d ago
It’s didn’t rally a bit. People dumped in money like idiots and billionaires sucked it all up. Looking at it like a rally will cause fomo. Until Trump stops or fucks off the bottom isn’t here
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u/Digfortreasure 1d ago
It will most likely be downward choppy, great jobs report today and market didnt care, i believe layoff news starts within next 21 days as well as tariff tit for tat, maybe a couple ‘deals’ made, but i see no major pullback from current admin. I believe burning it down is part of their plan to buy back at pennies on the dollar at low rates, its that simple of a greedy nefarious scam. They wanna own everything, partly why they are selling all these govt buildings. CRE will be f’d, consumer credit already high this will tip it all, housing may be the only ok spot in certain areas of course
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u/rabboni 1d ago
I moved my 529 to a money market today offered within the account. It's not a savings acct and still subject to the market, but not nearly as volatile. It's not the biggest account I have but considering I have a son going to college in a couple of months it's the most important. It's not a 10 year account. It's a 5 year account and I can't be patient.
So, I locked in a loss.
I really hope Monday rolls around and makes me look stupid. If not Monday, I hope I look back a year from now and say, "Man, switching that 529 cost me a lot of money". If so, all my other investments probably did well.
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u/DoggedStooge 1d ago
Of the, like, 10 times SPY has fallen 4.5% in back to back days, the next day was green 8 times. One of the times it happened in 1929 and once in 1933 were the two times there was a third day of mega destruction.
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u/Falcon0671 1d ago
Cramer said Monday will be Red Monday. So likely going to be a huge Green Day 🤷♂️
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u/Potential-Menu3623 1d ago
Can Congress do anything?
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u/OldPersonName 1d ago
You need a simple majority to end the emergency which he's using as justification for enacting tariffs (oh yah, remember that?). They got it in the Senate (for Canada) but there is approximately a 0% chance in the House
Edit: oh and trump can veto it so you really need 2/3 in both houses, no chance
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u/DethFeRok 1d ago
Maybe you’ll be queued up in a breadline… maybe you’ll be shopping for a new boat. Who knows.
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u/OrneryZombie1983 1d ago
There is no way to know because nobody can predict what Orange Julius tweets on Sunday night.
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u/caterpillarprudent91 1d ago
Let's see what Mr twitter wrote during the weekend. If he decided to put more tariff then Monday would be a blood bath.
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u/ItsNotProgHouse 1d ago
Empty bags and go into metals or oil. That steady VIX climb today is making me uneasy.
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u/hmmm_ 1d ago
It depends what happens over the weekend. The EU are unlikely to announce retaliation over the weekend, they'll give a bit of time to see if Trump's team tries to negotiate, and they'll probably start next weekend if it doesn't go well.
The whole of Trump's strategy seems to be dependent on other nations not retaliating, which is extremely naive.
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u/Hobojoe- 1d ago
Two things to consider. Trump is golfing, so nothing could happen. Trump fires off some shit on Truth Social at 2am Sunday. Your shit turns red or green.
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u/PolishSausa9e 1d ago
The ball kicking will continue. If Europe puts on counter tariffs it will be a steel toed ball kicking.
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u/VegasWorldwide 1d ago
my crystal ball says, over the weekend, we hear some positive news (similar to the Trump/Vietnam phone call) and the market shows some green Monday as that's all people are looking for: they want some damn certainty. 1% green Monday.
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u/Desperate-Ad7319 1d ago
In the short term, I truly do not understand what a best case scenario would be to get it to go positive.
Long-term I understand best case scenario is that American made products fill the gap. This would still mean U.S. has to catch up the production needed which would take years and you still have to figure out whether Americans can pay the increased price due to the new cost of production.
In the short-term, what is the play?
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u/post_scripted 1d ago
My guess is more red. Eventually buying will start. But we haven't even heard all of the retaliatory tarrifs yet, plus the near term fallout for companies. Also, many were hoping they would adjust, it seems like they are doubling down in the rhetoric. I can't see any reason to buy yet.
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u/Grungy_Mountain_Man 1d ago
Only China has announced retaliatory tariffs to my knowledge. It’s doing to get worse once Europe and everybody else joins in.
Trump seems giddy at the prospect of the market crashing so I don’t think he’ll back off.
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u/milksteak122 1d ago
Monday it might go up, but I feel like later this year we are going to see indicators that the damage is done regardless if Trump randomly decides to reverse all tariff decisions, so im guessing the market will be down for a little bit. I’m still partially convinced this is all a way for him and rich friends to buy up equities on the cheap.
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u/obscureobject2574 1d ago
One thing is certain, it will either go up or down Make of it what you will..
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u/Kosmon4ut 1d ago
Lmao the stock market is roulette. It just took you till trumps 2nd term to notice.
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u/Delicious_Sun_6926 1d ago
Pride is gonna be the end of us. Specifically Trumps ego
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u/Choice_Coffee4836 1d ago
What’s EU and other countries will do this weekend will determine happens Monday… or depends on how his golf game goes
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u/Dr-McLuvin 1d ago
I would get out of TeslaQ it’s had a good run but crazy shit could happen over the weekend.
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u/ExpressElevator2Heck 1d ago
The crash will probably continue simply because the majority of the country (Left+Center) either don't think Trump knows what he is doing or are not sure. If you believe we're headed to poo of course you'd sell.
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u/joeg26reddit 1d ago
Vietnam and Cambodia capitulated to Trump
As of 5:52pm EST This is NOT being reported on Fox News or CNN - IMHO that is weird and on purpose.
I did not check any other countries but suspect others have as well
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u/johnnysdollhouse 1d ago
Dude, nobody knows. There's been so much volatility, so "what will happen at Monday's open" isn't even a valid question.
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u/LostInThePurp 1d ago
I think we've got much more to fall. After March, the sentiment amongst retail investors was "ride it out" and I think that is changing RAPIDLY.
I think next weeks going to be a bloodbath.
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u/ErroneousEncounter 1d ago
If there’s no new information over the weekend, it will go down further. Maybe not initially, but by 4:00pm.
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u/AppropriateGoat7039 1d ago
Unless there is news of some kind of negotiations happening, we see a bloody red Monday again. It will be magnified if the EU or others come back with retaliatory tariffs. I would say the chances of a green Monday are very slim.
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u/AnonUserAccount 1d ago
I think we get more news about reciprocal tariffs from a few other countries and that leads to more selling.
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u/austinbarrow 1d ago
I think Chinas retaliation ensures a red Monday. Trump can't admit he's wrong. He's not capable so he'll have to double down.
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u/mislysbb 1d ago
At this point, anything could happen. He could tweet at 1am Sunday morning that he’s lifting/delaying tariffs, or the EU could retaliate and then he’ll just double down on them. Who the heck knows right now