r/stocks • u/AP9384629344432 • 1d ago
Industry News JPMorgan Says Trump’s Tariffs to Send US Into Recession (Yesterday/this morning it was a '60% chance')
JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it now expects the US economy to fall into a recession this year after accounting for the likely impact of tariffs announced this week by the Trump administration.
“We now expect real GDP to contract under the weight of the tariffs, and for the full year (4Q/4Q) we now look for real GDP growth of -0.3%, down from 1.3% previously,” the bank’s chief US economist, Michael Feroli, said Friday in a note to clients, referring to gross domestic product.
“The forecasted contraction in economic activity is expected to depress hiring and over time to lift the unemployment rate to 5.3%,” Feroli said.
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u/Fidler_2K 1d ago
None of these analysts or people on Reddit have said thank you yet
Maybe that's the key to us getting out of this downturn
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u/LoudestHoward 1d ago
I can't afford a suit.
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u/ClickF0rDick 1d ago
Quick, cosplay as a washed up right wing rockstar
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u/BranchDiligent8874 1d ago
But he had a bright red suit with lots of lace work.
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u/D-F-B-81 15h ago
Thats only like 29.99 i mean 45.99 now, just head on down to Halloween town, look for "small penis patriot".
They're probably on backorder so you're gonna wanna get down there quick.
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u/A_Sneaky_Whale 1d ago
That’s the plan, make us all too poor to afford suits. Then it won’t matter how many times we say Thank You because we won’t look the part.
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u/bigraptorr 1d ago
Come on! Oh, yeah, yeah. The guy in the... the $4,000 suit can't even get a "Thank You" from the guy who doesn’t make that in three months. Come on!
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u/flippin_ruckus 1d ago
Meanwhile, over on r/conservative there is scarcely a mention of the economy. They’re too busy posting about Nancy Pelosi and Kamala Harris.
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u/loudtones 1d ago
Look at the front page of Fox News lol
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u/Right_Fun_6626 1d ago
I subjected myself to some Fox yesterday to see how they were spinning the market bloodbath. Turns out they were more concerned with Argentine Nazis, randos getting stabbed at sporting events, the Biden Dementia Coverup, and some other silly distraction that I forget now. Later, the elite propagandists came on to sell the Trump Big Brain spin on everything. At least we’ll get some more minimum wage jobs in a couple decades out of it.
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u/TAYSON_JAYTUM 1d ago
I, for one, look forward to working on a Tesla assembly line for $7.25 and hour while all the $300k high tech jobs move to India and china
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u/CrumbBCrumb 1d ago
300k jobs in America, but 10K in India! Think of how much companies will save to use on stock buybacks and C Suite pay!
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u/AoeDreaMEr 21h ago
Not true any more. Google pays 60-200k in India for 150-400k equivalent jobs in the US. Housing market in Indian metropolitan cities is fked up. Per sqft, it costs more than Bay Area in some places.
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u/babsa90 1d ago
The crazy thing is is that we could theoretically bring back these industry jobs back to the US, but it would take a lot of illegal immigrants willing to work for less than minimum wage. However, in typical fascist fashion, they need to blame immigrants and other out groups for all of society's woes.
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u/DiabolicToaster 1d ago
Not if people are so desperate they will work for minimum wage or the idea of minimum wage becomes historical.
Make a new poverty class. Super poverty.
Or target the untapped minors' demographics. Save by cutting education at the same time.
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u/CouncilmanRickPrime 11h ago
They've already undone child labor laws in some places. And conservatives have been against a minimum wage for a while. Unfortunately it's the direction we're headed.
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u/sinnysinsins 1d ago
It's a textbook cult. I think the biggest vector is the Fox News network maybe? Truth social too I guess, never been on there urgh. Bro pods like Joe Rogan, Theo Von. Who the latter is dumb as shit by the way. How to get in those or if that doesn't work, mitigate their influence is important I think. How can we tell these young cool men that their puts are dogshit? I wouldn't be surprised if the bro pods got a big paycheck prior to the election . Young men, realize trump doesnt give a fuck about you. I realize I'm on Reddit and preaching to a choir.
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u/Tha_Sly_Fox 1d ago
I did the same thing. I went to like 10 different news sites and all of them has the market/economy collapsing as story number 1…. Then went to Fox News and their top story was some anti abortion activist who was attacked
It’s like some alternative reality over there
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u/ThunderBobMajerle 1d ago
Look at fox news’ categories for the US. It’s hilarious it’s like terrorism, crime, and some other fear mongering thing but nothing at all about what’s actually happening
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u/craigeryjohn 1d ago
Even NEWSMAX had it as the top story! Only fox had it buried, and even then it was a link to fox business, with no comments available.
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u/TAYSON_JAYTUM 1d ago
The only mention of the markets is that the tariffs are going well because Ford agreed to consider building a new factory or something and that they laid off employees in Canada in Mexico.
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u/Kingkongcrapper 1d ago
“Pay no attention to your 401ks. They did not matter anyways. Retirement has always been an illusion.”
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u/CovidBat 11h ago
This hit me as I’m sitting on the couch looking out the window with a blank stare stuck in a downward spiral daydream.
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u/CalvinVanDamme 1d ago
They are talking about it, but they are still complete morons.
"I’m still under the belief that this is a negotiation tactic to get other countries to agree to more favorable terms, I think even Trump understands how negatively long term tariffs would be to an economy not prepared to independently support itself."
"As much as I'm critical of the Trump tariffs, I would still take the worst day of his presidency over the best day of Kamalas. Her plans would have been even worse for this country."
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u/PoliticsIsDepressing 1d ago
The problem is China is seeing this as a silver platter with a golden goose. They’re leading the charge on retaliatory tariffs and will be working with every nation in the world to fill the void.
China will eclipse the US economically in the next 2 years with this absolute moron at the helm.
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u/BlakeDidNothingWrong 1d ago
China, Japan, and South Korea are banding together to deal with the Trump tariffs. He overturned 70 years of hostile relations in an afternoon!
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u/_mrfluid_ 1d ago
It’s fucking creepy honestly. Just lots more dem hate and distraction articles. Do they think people are this stupid? …
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u/Raven_1090 1d ago
A guy posted on that sub about the negative effects of tarrifs and his whole post with like 300 comments and a post about Rand Paul was removed. Crazy amount of moderation.
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u/clinicallyawkward 1d ago
It’s largely one account posting multiple articles an hour. I genuinely wonder how many real users are on that sub
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u/BigBoyYuyuh 1d ago
Nancy, who’s not the House leader. Kamala, who’s nothing. I don’t even care what they’re bitching about Nancy about. She’s old? Ok. So is majority of congress and the president.
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u/NYGiants181 1d ago
Disagree. It is def def there, but those are being pushed down. That sub is def asking questions, and 100% see this as fully moronic. It's just the pure MAGA cult followers that are trying to spin it.
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u/momoenthusiastic 1d ago
You should check out r/conservatives . They are more "conservative" than r/Conservative
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u/NYGiants181 1d ago
Wow that place is insane
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u/momoenthusiastic 11h ago
The plural is so appropriate, right? Haha
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u/NYGiants181 10h ago
Oh dude, it def. turns it up about 100 notches. They are brainwashed beyond belief.
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u/PrimaryChance0 14h ago
Don’t go looking at the conservative sub if you were hoping to have a good day. Cancerous thinking
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u/flippin_ruckus 10h ago
It’s definitely an echo chamber. No dissenting points of view. Didn’t take much to get permabanned.
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u/truthandreality23 11h ago
To be fair, I just checked, and there are a fair few posters expressing doubt and concern about the tariffs.
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u/remorsefulguy 1d ago
It’s because they block any posts related to that, as obviously they would be critical of trump. I got banned for posting about the economy to see what they would say.
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u/DoubleEveryMonth 1d ago
R/conservative is liberal garbage.
Nobody cares about Kamala.
There's also nothing wrong with the economy.
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u/JerseyCityHotDog 1d ago
Meanwhile on /r/stocks no one is posting about stocks. They're too busy posting about what /r/conservative is doing.
How is this shit upvoted?
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u/oatmealparty 1d ago
I'm looking at /r/stocks and basically every post is about the market, I don't see a single post about /r/conservative what are you talking about?
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u/JerseyCityHotDog 1d ago
I don't see a single post about /r/conservative what are you talking about?
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u/oatmealparty 1d ago
Huh, a screenshot of a comment. Wow.
So where are the posts you were talking about?
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u/JerseyCityHotDog 17h ago
"POSTING"
You "POST" a comment. Ability to read. It's the very top of the thread. Why are you offended? People come to /r/stocks to talk stocks, not talk about what other subreddits are doing. Not one of your posts is about stocks so I see why you're for that.
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u/oatmealparty 16h ago
Ah, I see where the confusion is. You're talking about comments, but using the word post. The post aka the thread is the top level link, image, or text that starts the thread of comments. Comments are the replies under the post.
There are no posts talking about the conservative subreddit, but there are some comments. It's not surprising though, that people are talking about the mass delusion that is driving us into an economic crisis. This is their doing, and they're supporting it, and it has impact on the stock market. It's not irrelevant.
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u/JerseyCityHotDog 16h ago
mass delusion that is driving us into an economic crisis. This is their doing, and they're supporting it, and it has impact on the stock market.
Again, he quoted a subreddit. The subreddit has zero intersection with stocks. You didn't come here to talk stocks, which is why you believe it to be interesting.
Ah, I see where the confusion is. You're talking about comments, but using the word post.
Nope. Again, never used the word post. I used "posting," which is a verb. You post a comment. You post a thread. You post a post.
In the context of the internet, "posting" refers to sharing or publishing a message, content, or data online, such as on a website, social media platform, forum, or blog, for others to view.
https://www.reddit.com/r/help/comments/3hpow5/how_do_i_post_a_comment/
You'll keep arguing instead of admitting your inability to retain when replying.
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u/yo_sup_dude 1d ago
I think he considers that a comment, not a post
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u/JerseyCityHotDog 17h ago
Never said comments or posts lol, used the verb "posting," which applies whether you post a thread or a comment.
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u/yo_sup_dude 13h ago
yea maybe they consider that to be commenting in the context of Reddit. I’m a conservative but wondering if they are right that there are more posts/comments in the conservative subreddit vs posts/comments here about the topic he was mentioning
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u/JerseyCityHotDog 13h ago
you mean oatmeal party never used the word post,
No. I never used the word "post."
Arguing semantics here to avoid the fact that discussion of another subreddit has never to do with stocks or performance of stocks as a guise to stray away from the intersection of politics/market and just discuss politics.
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u/yo_sup_dude 13h ago
I didn’t understand, which subreddit’s discussion has never to do with stocks? and does this mean they were wrong about the conservative subreddit? on the stock subreddit people are posting about stocks, right?
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u/JerseyCityHotDog 13h ago
which subreddit’s discussion has never to do with stocks
What does what the conservative subreddit have to do have to do with /r/stocks? How does what another subreddit is or is not discussing have to do with stock performance?
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u/Esternaefil 1d ago
It's just so weird, man.
Like... People actually WANTED this. Like... "Aww fuck, I have too much comfort and really need a little hardship just to feel alive!"
This is what voters actually chose.
It is just completely mind bottling.
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u/bearinsac 1d ago
Today I had a patient who was upset about the economy. He was saying how all of his assets for retirement are tied up in the markets and he was worried about retiring. I felt bad for a bit until he told me the reason this is happening is because the last president was covering up the issue of other countries taking advantage of America by printing money and giving out stimulus checks. In other words, he believes this all could have been prevented if our last president wasn’t elected when we saw growth. They’re gone, they’re never going to admit they were wrong.
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u/sinnysinsins 1d ago
It's a bona fide cult at this point. Their brains don't work good no more
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u/i-can-sleep-for-days 22h ago
Yes, but why did so many voters stayed home. Honestly, they are as much to blame for this.
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u/Glocks1nMySocks 1d ago
… and im sure he squealed with glee when trump’s stimulus check bearing the dear leader’s signature hit his bank account
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u/CrisisEM_911 23h ago
Checks? Lol at this point they'd be lucky to get an I.O.U from this administration.
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u/CrisisEM_911 23h ago
Lol talk is cheap. It's only been 3 months and tariffs only just took effect. By midterms half of MAGA will be homeless or right on the verge. Let's see their commitment then.
I live in a blue state and I'm sick of these red state trash taking advantage of us. Let's all secede and leave Texas and Florida holding the bag. I guarantee they'll be following us out the door once they realize what it would cost to support worthless trash states like Arkansas, Alabama and Mississippi.
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u/IAmPandaRock 23h ago
I don't think seceding is realistic, but I do want to buy some of that red state real estate for cheap when everything crashes.
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u/IAmPandaRock 23h ago
I don't think seceding is realistic, but I do want to buy some of that red state real estate for cheap when everything crashes.
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u/barking420 19h ago
at some point you’d think they’d get exhausted defending such glaringly obvious lies. the market just rejected him in front of the whole world, and now they’re trying to cope with the most quantitative measure telling them they’re wrong
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u/MrRikleman 1d ago
What’ll really get you is when it’s not mind boggling anymore. When this level of stupidity is exactly what you expect from the right. It’s all just kind of going exactly as I expected and I’m not surprised in the least.
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u/B4rrel_Ryder 1d ago
Republicans would eat shit if a Democrat had to smell their breath
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u/BranchDiligent8874 1d ago
They would shit their pants if democrats were in the elevator with them.
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u/SadZealot 1d ago
They'd be so mad about this if their states departnent of education taught them how to read
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u/Johnstrummer1979 1d ago
I believe their forecast to be unbelievably optimistic. The economy was already a bit shaky. I think we are in for 3-4% contraction in 2025. This fall will see bank failures, and I have no hopes that there will be any adults in the room to correct course. People don't understand how good we have it in this country because of cheap labor from Mexico and cheap resources from Canada. Just the blowback from North America will be worth 2-3% of contraction
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u/i-can-sleep-for-days 22h ago
This is for real. Even under the most competent leadership working around the clock, this kind of economic damage is hard to fix. With Trump's incompetent white house? Oh boy. Especially since this was intentional, there is no one coming to save us.
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u/QuietRainyDay 1d ago
Actually yes- and its very important to understand this
Reading through certain subreddits today finally helped me realize whats happening.
Lots of people genuinely believe this is necessary. They think the country was on the brink of collapse and it was going to collapse anyway. You'll see a lot of comments along these lines:
"This will be hard, but we were doomed anyway, we had to try something to get out of the crisis!"
A huge chunk of the population has been indoctrinated into a doomsday cult. Usually the cause of the apocalypse is debt, though some people cite DEI, money printing, other fringe stuff. But debt is a big one. Although the economy was chugging along in 2024 and there were literally 0 signs of any debt crisis, they were convinced that the crisis was imminent. Or that it had already began before the tariffs.
I cant emphasize enough how important this is. There is a fully-formed doomsday cult operating on a grand scale in the US electorate. They are willing to burn everything down and endure enormous pain over non-existent threats.
Use this info in your financial planning as you wish.
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u/Nyorliest 1d ago
I think those comments are rationalization. If you'd asked those people what they expected 2 months ago, they'd have said MAGA. But now their leader has gone down a different path, they say this is what they wanted all along, and how it's necessary.
They tie themselves in knots trying to justify Trump's choices, and you will too if you try to make sense of a group that rejects sense, logic, empiricism, and history.
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u/PopLegion 1d ago
These are the same people who told us the left doesn't want us to own anything lmao
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u/meltbox 15h ago
I mean based on subprime debt issues they may be right. The K shaped recovery was a thing and I think growing wealth inequality is ultimately driving this cult.
The problem is our economy doesn’t depend on the bottom half of the country anymore. Most spending comes from the top few % which means they become disconnected from reality.
So I can see how this perception is based in reality, just not the average reality.
That said most people have much more deranged arguments that make no sense.
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u/QuietRainyDay 12h ago
No they are not right in the slightest.
There was no debt crisis. There was no economic meltdown. Nothing was happening.
Inequality is a different issue and that is not what they are talking about- they are talking about a literal fiscal crisis which was supposedly going to crash the economy like the Weimar Republic in the 1930s. Which is complete nonsense.
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u/CrisisEM_911 23h ago
If they were so concerned about the national debt, they should kill themselves. Boomers and Red state trash are responsible for most of that debt.
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u/Doomsdayszzz 1d ago
They see it as a necessary evil. If other people of color suffer it worth it . It’s insane they hate the other so much they are ready for self destruction.
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u/stormy2587 14h ago
This is basically proof to me that at least 77 million Americans are too stupid to be voting. Like the vast majority who clearly had no idea what his policies were or if they did didn’t bother to understand how it might impact them. 30 minutes of searching “how might Trump’s tariffs impact me?” Should have been enough to dissuade anyone from voting for him.
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u/Marko-2091 1d ago
Sorry to break it to you boss but people were already struggling... so they had 2 choices either vote for the same thing that wasnt working or for the orange populist that said whatever they wanted to hear. Well guess what they chose
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u/Nyorliest 1d ago
No, they wanted their cult/fascist leader to be President, and then this is the result of his ignorance of economics. That's all. I doubt even he wants a recession. He just isn't competent.
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u/CrisisEM_911 23h ago
You're giving voters way too much credit bro. MAGA voters are sheep, they have no idea what they want. Trump made some reassuring noises, so they followed him, thinking he was going to feed them. Instead, he led them to the slaughterhouse.
I'll be sitting in my blue state laughing while they end up homeless and starving.
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u/Roland0077 19h ago
People just have hate and anxiety drilled into them that they have no idea who or what to direct at. Mango Mussalini just gave them an outlet
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u/Lets_Kick_Some_Ice 16h ago
Like a parent drowning their child in a bathtub in order to "save it", MAGA is not mentally well.
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u/Silent_Elk7515 1d ago
Who needs economic growth when you can have tariffs and recession?
Trump's got it all figured out. Genius move, really.
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u/NeonistheFuture 1d ago
Let’s not forget this morning he was on Truth posting videos of theories supporting him crashing the market. -Forbes
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u/LordFaquaad 1d ago
Nah bro JP Morgan is part of the lib agenda and Biden made this happen ~ r/conservative probably
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u/Hot_Juggernaut4460 1d ago
“Has anyone else noticed the astroturfing camping by Soros funded leftists all over Reddit, every social media platform, real life, etc?”
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u/forjeeves 1d ago
Do u miss Biden yet
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u/thebriss22 1d ago
Lol Americans needed to fell some serious pain to realize why Trumpist is a terrible idea.
I believe this is the find out part of FAFO 😂
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u/DidgeriDuce 1d ago edited 1d ago
It just sucks we are all going to suffer along with the dopes who voted for it.
Anyone close to retirement or with a less-than-stable job are going to feel it the worst. No sympathy for the MAGA’s who do. Full sympathy for everyone else.
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u/dankmeme_medic 1d ago
fuck boomers. those fuckers deserve to get their retirement portfolios blown up and their social security checks funneled straight into Elon’s pockets
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u/Super-Background-770 1d ago
The infuriating part is they won't ever find out in a meaningful way that causes cognitive dissonance from their dear leader. Things will get really bad and they'll just continue to throw blame elsewhere (Biden, Obama, The Media, Soros, Denmark, Canada, Sesame Street, Mr. Rogers, etc.). Right now, they believe it is "short-term pain" for long-term gain, failing to recognize they likely cant even handle 2-3 months of pain in their current positions. So realistically what is going to happen is this will be a fucking mess, and then a democrat will get voted in, things will get better economically, and they'll claim it's all due to what Trump did. 18D Chess. Then they'll vote in another populist because they're actually brainwashed and fully enveloped in a cult now and that doesn't just go away. Other cheery things to look forward to, if a dem doesn't get elected, they seem to be very on board with JD. I think his agenda is much darker than Trumps, and I think anything particularly dark right now (deportations without due process to a foreign country for example) are his influence. He's literally a white nationalist who wants Handmaids tale type shit. Trump is just a mouthpiece and a way to gain popularity, and they basically know there's nothing he can do to fuck this up. The U.S. will have to rely on swing voters and real conservatives who voted Trump because they felt there was no better option to come back over and make sure that doesn't happen.
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u/rendumguy 1d ago
They fucked around, now we find out, they don't find out because they can't fathom that Trump is bad.
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u/bleu_flp 1d ago
Majority of Americans didn’t vote for him. We don’t have a democracy here, we have the electoral college so that we can be told what we want instead of having to shoulder the burden of deciding ourselves
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u/WordDesigner7948 1d ago
Majority of Americans who voted did
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u/bleu_flp 1d ago
Sure but the majority of eligible voters didn’t, only roughly a third did. The comment being responded to said “Americans” not “Americans who voted”, one could divide up the data to fit different narratives all day long if one wanted
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u/WordDesigner7948 1d ago
That’s a stupid semantic distinction. And those who didn’t vote are just as culpable.
Furthermore, the point is that Trump’s election has nothing to do with the electoral college, so your comment is irrelevant. He won the popular vote. He would have won in a pure democracy.
Unless getting rid of the electoral college somehow means compelling all eligible citizens to vote. In which case I haven’t heard that definition. And are you certain he wouldn’t have still won even if every American voted?
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u/Super-Background-770 1d ago
Exactly this. I absolutely sympathize with Americans who didn’t want this outcome. But let’s not pretend this isn’t a widespread cognitive sickness — or that those people are the majority. A solid base of die-hard loyalists showed up, and then there’s the apathetic crowd that just likes to watch it all unfold.
Sure, some conservatives probably thought, “I couldn’t vote for the other (woman), so I chose the lesser evil that aligned with some of my values. How bad could it be?” But at that point, what are those values really? If they were truly conservative — fiscally or ideologically — they’d have had a problem with tariffs, government handouts to failing industries, the ballooning deficit caused in Trumps first term, authoritarian behaviour, and a declining stock market. Trump’s been pushing that stuff since day one. It was never hidden. And yet, after a whole term of “promises made, promises kept,” these "let’s see what happens" voters thought he’d suddenly become more restrained? Lol.
Yes, there were swing voters who were fatigued,, and some old-school conservatives who thought they were voting for their dad’s GOP — some of whom now regret it. But they were drowned out by the loyalists, and that speaks volumes.
Which brings me to the non-voters. Excluding those who were genuinely suppressed or unable to vote — which is a real issue — most just didn’t care enough. They didn’t think the outcome would affect them, or they dismissed it as noise.
I’m in Canada, but a dual citizen, and I’ve taken my right to vote seriously since I was 18. Our turnout hovers around similar levels to the U.S., maybe because our politics haven’t been as divisive — at least not until recently. Our conservative party used to resemble the U.S. Democrats — but that’s starting to shift. And the American Right has become incredibly good at rallying their base. We’re starting to feel those ripples here. I’ll be watching this next election closely, because I think Canadians are finally waking up to how consequential this is.
And honestly, based on conversations I’ve had with American friends who didn’t vote — some admitted they would’ve just followed their boyfriend or girlfriend’s lead. I try to avoid political convos with them, but even the mildest comment makes them say, “I don’t talk politics — it just causes drama.” But that’s not a moral high ground. That’s apathy pretending to be neutrality.
So no, I don’t think we should be proud of the one-third who sat it out. Their silence shaped the outcome too.
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u/pyrolizard11 20h ago
And those who didn’t vote are just as culpable
...that's not how the Presidential election works in America. More popular votes where she already won wouldn't mean she got more electoral college votes. Those are assigned by census count and almost every state is winner-takes-all by plurality. Somebody who didn't vote in CA effectively voted Kamala, for example.
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u/WordDesigner7948 18h ago
Whooooooosh.
That’s the sound of nuance flying right over your head.
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u/pyrolizard11 18h ago
Yeah, I gotta tell you, I don't think the guy in charge currently gives a shit about nuance, to everybody's harm. Two million, five million, eight million more (D) votes in California mean literally nothing to the man who lost California but won anyway.
Nobody gives a shit about the popular vote because it's literally meaningless as things stand - the presidency is not a national election, but fifty independent statewide elections for the same national position. No amount of extra blue voter turnout in blue-won states would have mattered. Not to the results and not to him or what he does.
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u/DonBoy30 1d ago
lol it’s sad we have to potentially collapse America, and bring down the entire globe with it, just so 77 million out of 7 billion people can finally shut the fuck up.
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u/Immediate-Noise-7917 1d ago
MAGA lives paycheck to paycheck and could care less about the economy
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u/stickied 1d ago
Which means they'll be the hardest hit as soon as the job losses start.
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u/rectumreapers 1d ago
That's what's keeping me going
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u/mangotail 1d ago
Watching Tesla tank is also a silver lining while I watch my 401k continue to sink.
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u/caca-casa 1d ago
don’t tempt me with that level of schadenfreude. Can we speed the process up? I have a forever starter home to buy.
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u/Jaded_Celery_451 1d ago
There's more MAGA on Wall Street you think. They may not be full cult members but they voted for this too.
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u/OneGate4953 1d ago
What’s Mr. Dimon up to these days?
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u/Hacking_the_Gibson 19h ago
Being absolutely fucking silent because he spent a bunch of time normalizing Trump's crazy ass shit.
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u/BranchDiligent8874 1d ago
He may have started skipping office since he is always high. Heard he can't handle this level of cognitive dissonance.
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u/Healthy_Razzmatazz38 1d ago
its 60% with no reciprocity, and not accounting for product boycotts or brand damage.
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u/WhyteManga 1d ago
Gosh, I hope it doesn't hit -20% come Monday, and -50% before next Friday. That wouldn't be very...
GREAT
Not very
GREAT
At all.
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u/Kitchen_Conflict2627 1d ago
And yet all of them bankers voted for trump. I guess some need to be squeezed really hard to wake up
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u/PontificatinPlatypus 1d ago
Later this evening...
Trump: "Are you sure this is the way?"
Putin: "Just do as I command."
Trump: "Yes, Master."
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u/TrashPanda_924 1d ago
Fed futures are also projecting 5 rate cuts as of this afternoon. If that happened, we’d see some movement in the housing sector.
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u/eddiehwang 1d ago
If we do fall into a recession the bloodbath is just getting started. Expect a further 30% drop I'd say
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u/Jmsjss2912 1d ago
Let’s talk about the tariffs and the effects it has on the manufacturers of this country.
Assume for a minute that you wanted to bring back some manufacturing to the USA, which of course is a huge assumption compared to manufacturing outside the country like we do as a company.
Which I will get to in just a moment. This week alone the stock market lost over US$9 trillion which means every single manufacturer that has a US corporation is part of that loss. Which goes to show you that Trump‘s logic is about as efficient as his spray tan.
If these companies even had a thought of coming back to the United States, all of their cash has now evaporated because of the loss in the stock market so who’s going to finance these new manufacturing plants that Trump keeps talking about, that are going to come back here make the economy great?
Now goods have gone up in price in some cases doubled already this week which means the consumers are going to be buying less. Companies are going to begin layoffs, because they’ve lost a huge portion of their cash reserves. Their businesses are going to be diminished some because of the lower purchasing rate and the higher pricing.
Bringing manufacturing back to the United States at this point with this approach has been almost completely eliminated.
All you have to do is go back and look at what happened during the depression when they tried to institute tariffs causing the depression to take even a further nose dive and adding years into the depressive point. It’s such a joke that they used it in the movie Ferris Bueller‘s Day off where the teacher was talking about how bad tariffs are and how they caused the depression to go down, which goes to show you that if they use it as a punchline, then it obviously cannot work.
With our business, we were building some manufacturing plants in the United States and now have had to put it on hold because of the tariffs. As an example, each of our production lines has a manufacturing cost of a little under US$5 million, we did try to price it in the United States but we found quotes anywhere from $12-$16 million for the same exact production line that we are having made in China. So we couldn’t make the equipment in the United States, but we were going to import it and set up manufacturing plants.
One of them was in Arkansas where the state is somewhat depressed. Now we have put that project on hold with approximately 1800 people we were going to hire.
The reason for that is not just the tariffs, from the equipment if you think about it a piece of equipment that cost me $5 million is now going to cost me about $9 million. Each production line generates about US$35 million of revenue so it’s not just a tariff in my situation it’s the fact that for $9 million I can have practically two production lines generating $70 million of income compared to the same $9 million generating $35 million worth of income, with a much lower profit margin because of the labor cost in the United States along with all the taxes and liability issues that you carry because of the litigious nature of the United States operating.
So tariffs do not work, they hurt the economy. The only thing that they do on the surface is generate more tax dollars for the US government, but they diminish and wipe out the middle and lower class.
Do you want to bring manufacturing back to the United States?
You’ve got to do something about all of the litigious actions, you have to lower healthcare cost, lower pharmaceutical cost, have to educate more so that children can grow up and learn trades.
You have to find ways to lower the cost of living and once you start doing that then laboring jobs will become available again.
The next problem is the taxation situation is off-balance. We have structured our tax code so that the wealthy and the publicly traded companies that offer stock options instead of salaries, which is taxable make it almost impossible to collect tax.
Take Musk for an example from Tesla.
They talk about his $300 billion worth but it’s all in stock and that’s unrealized gains paying no taxes. What he does is he goes to the bank and he borrows money against that stock portfolio, borrowed money is non-taxable income and then he uses that money to live and buy things like he bought Twitter for $44 billion with borrowed money, no taxes paid at all.
And then what he does from there to pay off those loans is he borrows against other portfolios and he just keeps borrowing deferring the taxes.
$300 billion and no taxes paid whereas the employees that work for all those companies have taxes taken out of each paycheck.
Just look salaries up of the top executives around the country and you look at their income, you’ll see that their salaries are generally between one hundred and two hundred thousand US dollars but they earned anywhere from ten to a hundred million dollars a year all in stock options and then they keep those options in stock and then borrow against them so their tax base is almost nothing.
you want to fix the economy. You have to find a way to tax the rich, you’re not going to make them poor, you’re just going to make them help to strengthen the economy.
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u/dopef123 21h ago
I think the unemployment rate will be a lot higher if those tariffs aren't lifted.
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u/nikeiptt 17h ago
I’m not disagreeing with their assessment. But in 2023 everyone had 100% chance of recession and the fed managed to navigate out.
Granted trade war there’s little papa Powell can do. I’m just saying be wary of these predictions.
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u/I_am_Regarded 15h ago
Calm down its just a natural side effect of the transition to united States of oligarchs.
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u/AdeptCardiologist462 1d ago
- 2022: JPMorgan forecasted that the U.S. and global economies could enter a recession by mid-20.
- 2024: JPMorgan forecasted a slowdown in U.S. economic growth. They assigned a 25% probability to a deep recession scenario.
- 2025: JPMorgan forecasts U.S. recession. They assigned probably 60%, up from earlier estimates.
Over the past 5 years, JPMorgan (and most major institutions) have consistently operated under a “recession just around the corner” thesis.
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u/GroundbreakingAd8310 1d ago
While ya probably, jp Morgan perfects a recession of the wind blows to hard. If u make the same prediction everyday ur gonna be right eventually
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