r/stocks • u/Beezer_MB • 1d ago
Was I naive in thinking the tariffs were "priced-in" before the indexes fell on Wednesday night?
Was that foolish of me? If the public knew about "Liberation Day" then wouldn't the stock market respond accordingly before then? And not wait to tumble when the tariffs were announced? I've heard that the tariffs were announced at 10% but ultimately they were much higher than that. Is that why the markets went down?
Also, was I naive AGAIN for thinking we may have bottomed out YESTERDAY and then still free-falling today?
Just trying to cope here. Unfortunately it's too late to sell at this point đ
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u/callmecrude 1d ago edited 1d ago
Priced in is a myth. For tariffs to be priced in, it means the market knew that Donny was 100% going to implement them and knew what rates he was going to set. Yet weâve watched him flip-flop, delay, and alter Canada and Mexico tariffs 6 times now in the past 2 months. So the market was only pricing in probabilities, not guarantees.
We also had no clue what global tariffs were going to look like and they ended up being far harsher than what was speculated.
Market might have bottomed today, or it might take another 6+ months. Anyone who tells you they know which it will be is lying.
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u/SingleRefrigerator45 1d ago
Would love to get a peek of the portfolios of those that promoted this shit storm with Cheeto. BET they all had it "figured in"
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u/PromotionHuman5519 1d ago
How many puts do you think Trump bought? Will he be a trillionaire before he leave office?
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u/SingleRefrigerator45 1d ago
I am POSITIVE that is his goal. He has the need to become the richest person on earth.
Plus if he has less millionaires floating about the less he has to come up with for tax cuts. lol
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u/scruffles360 1d ago
This. âPriced inâ assumes you know every variable and everyoneâs response and everyone in the market agrees with you. The day the market prices everything in is the day the stock market doesnât move. Hasnât happened yet.
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u/ChairmanMeow1986 1d ago
Right, 'priced in' like anyone knows. Don't raise 'auto prices' who know what will happen.. loving it.
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u/MightyMiami 1d ago
If the Chinese tariff stays at 54%, the S&P 500 is going below 4k.
We import a lot of materials from China and a lot of countries' import parts to make stuff from China.
As a wholesaler, I can eat 10-15% margins, but not 54%. That has to get passed on, or I go out of business. So now I'm charging $50 instead of $25 on X product. And if the only way to reduce pricing is to order more bulk, I risk getting too much inventory and having no buyers.
It will be many years before moving my supply chain to the U.S. (if I could). I'd probably have to go to Vietnam or India.
Many many many companies are going out of business.
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u/ChairmanMeow1986 1d ago
But, but Vietnam capitulated, surely this is a success or a demonrat plot. Sorry it's a trading sub, but I'm absolutely pissed off at this point.
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u/ThenExtension9196 23h ago
Vietnam doesnât buy much of anything from the USA. Itâs a joke for them to drop rates since itâs virtually meaningless.
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u/ChairmanMeow1986 3h ago
Oh I know, I know. That was kind of my point, sooo much of this was meaningless grandstanding to establish strongman rhetoric. Vietnam, Cambodia https://www.nationthailand.com/blogs/news/asean/40048383 such a success!
Ignore the 53% on April 10 Chinese response and oh hey, rare earth export controls. Not like our tech companies need those.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china-hits-back-us-tariffs-with-rare-earth-export-controls-2025-04-04/
ffs
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u/FinndBors 23h ago
Yes. Whats priced in right now is that the tariffs will be rolled back considerably in the near future. Maybe after a little pain.
If the tariffs stand as it is (unlikely), I can easily see the market drop 50% from the top. People have no idea how much margins will be crushed and prices rise.
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u/BeatitLikeitowesMe 22h ago
Shit vietnam got like a 40% somethin tarriff as well so that aint gonna help
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u/Rivercitybruin 1d ago
Well said... Is every active trader completely wrong at least once or twice in the last momth?
Loaded question to some degree as TSLA is "bizarro stock"
But i am thinlking entire market
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u/GlitteringChipmunk21 1d ago
No one could have priced in the complete insanity that was Liberation Day. What Trump announced was orders of magnitude more stupid and more damaging than even us negative nellies expected.
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u/GetCashQuitJob 1d ago
It was two stages. Stage 1 was "this is deeper and broader than we thought." Stage 2 was "did they really use X-Y/X to calculate the "trade barriers?!?!?" which makes everyone realize there are no adults in the room.
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u/shawn1969 1d ago
The calculations were very damning. They didn't know what the f they were doing. Amateurs, not economists.
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u/bro-v-wade 1d ago
Yeah this is the most inexperienced administration since 1776.
The FBI is being run by two guys who have never once so much as observed an FBI investigation, and that's not even the top 5 worst appointments.
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u/counterweight7 1d ago
The guy running the HHS had his brain eaten by a worm. The competition for most incompetent will be fierce.
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u/Unbentmars 1d ago
He just said that to get out of alimony, he - like all these other assholes - are lying
They may be stupid, but fucking all this up is intentional
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u/Do_or_Do_Not480 1d ago
But the Greek letters impressed all the maga mouth-breathers by their sheer mathinessđ¤Ł
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u/bocageezer 1d ago
Oh, but they used all those Greek letters and subscripts in the formula to make it seem real mathy.
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u/BleednHeartCapitlist 12h ago
Anyone that wouldâve known what they are doing wouldâve told them not to do it
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u/EyeTechnical7643 1d ago
It's like they had an intern apply a formula across rows in an Excel table... Max(10%, x/y/2) ...
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u/GetCashQuitJob 1d ago
I assume they calculated real numbers and Trump said "not high enough" so they kept trying different things. Who knows though. It's irrational and unintelligent.
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u/Do_or_Do_Not480 1d ago
I'm quite certain my daughter in HS econ class could have come up with a substantially more sophisticated method of calculating tariffs!!
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u/ReplyEnvironmental88 1d ago
I mean, there's an Excel chart of all tariffs online. You could just copy and paste the data in Excel. In the next column, just input a formula that multiplied by 1.05 and boom. You have the dick measuring contest you wanted (bigger tariffs), but not blow the economy up rates.
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u/TheGoodCod 1d ago
This. Even some of trump's staff was shocked by how high the tariffs were. Bessent is rumored to considering leaving. I don't know why. There's no impediment to stop his bold face lying.
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u/Nightshift_emt 1d ago
This is basically Trumpâs whole presidency as I observe it. I voted against him but thought âif he wins, it wont be THAT badâ
I soon realized how wrong I amâŚ
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u/bin10pac 1d ago
I voted against him but thought âif he wins, it wont be THAT badâ
Why would you think that? He was awful last time and this time there are no guardrails.
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u/Nightshift_emt 1d ago
I thought the shit he is proposing is so absurd, surely at least congress wont let him get away with it. I was completely wrong.Â
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u/ChairmanMeow1986 1d ago
Really. You thought what he said wouldn't happen. That's the current defense? What?
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u/djollied4444 1d ago
I honestly don't understand how so many people were caught off-guard by this. This is a guy who changed the path of a hurricane with a sharpie to avoid saying he was wrong. He's the most stubborn man in the world and has been running on tariffs at this scale for years. To me it seemed obvious this is where we'd be. There's even that tweet by Geiger Capital that's going viral now saying only stupid liberals think Trump would actually implement the plan he's been running on for years.
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u/lOo_ol 1d ago
See chart.
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u/STODracula 1d ago
We're going to party like it's 1929 but with the FDIC in place this time 𤣠(Unless they destroy that too)
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u/Holly_Goloudly 1d ago
Feeling pretty confident thatâs their planâŚ
https://www.npr.org/2025/02/27/nx-s1-5307239/fdic-jobs-bank-regulator-trump-doge-elon-musk
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u/Matter_Infinite 14h ago
What's the best way to protect against this?
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u/Holly_Goloudly 12h ago
With this administration going after the NCUA, CFPB, FDIC, and waging economic war, Iâm not sure. I would normally say a credit union would be a safer bet, but perhaps diversifying your bank accounts (not keeping all of your money in one bank) or moving cash with your brokerage to a money market fund.
Personally, Iâm just keeping an eye out for any major red flags coming from our financial system before making any serious moves. And protesting, calling my reps, etc.
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u/Deaner_3 1d ago
I work in finance and was with some coworkers with the tv on mute. We saw the auto tariffs, figured that was it and walked away. Pulled up cnbc like 10 minutes later and had to tell everyone it wasn't even close
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u/King_of_the_Nerdth 1d ago
It was impossible to know if he was going to pull a 180 that morning and cancel all tariffs. Still is, and that might also be muting the decline.
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u/Swedishiron 1d ago
Warren Buffett enters the room
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u/ChairmanMeow1986 1d ago
I'm looking at berk.b to diversify out of the US and pick an entry, one other thing I'm looking at.
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u/Swedishiron 18h ago
I am too but also have been buying low fee ETFs holding foreign stocks that seem to have better valuation - definitely glad I did with my 401K based on the drops I saw the last 2 days
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u/Candlelight_Fant4sia 1d ago
I did, because I understood donald is stupid enough to do exactly what he had been saying for months he would do. It will get worse before it gets better, and that will take a while.
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u/Waste_Mousse_4237 1d ago
The time to priced-in the complete insanity of Trump was election day....
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u/ShakeAndBakeThatCake 1d ago
The bloodbath isnt even done yet. This is going to completely fuck the markets for a long time. It's a game of chicken. Trump is hoping to inflict more pain on other countries so they decide to negotiate more fairly. Issue is, that might not happen. Countries like China might literally not give a fuck as they have such a large internal economy anyway.
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u/CustardFromCthulhu 1d ago
"negotiate more fairly"? Lol mate. What do the penguins owe us?
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u/lOo_ol 1d ago
"The bloodbath isnt even done yet [...] so they decide to negotiate more fairly"
When your portfolio is red but you still watch Fox News.
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u/Into-Imagination 1d ago
Fox isnât even talking about the markets, their front page is just nonsense about Kamala.
Itâs a completely different reality some people live in, bizarre.
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u/FearingEmu1 1d ago
Lmao there's actually 1 tiny little bit about it in red on the front page, but it's definitely not one of the big headline stories complete with a picture front page.
Then that story has a truth social post of Trump complaining Jerome Powell to lower interest rates. Literally the meme of the guy shooting the person and then saying "why would Jerome Powell do this?"
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u/puukkeriro 1d ago
Chinese are suffering from a slowing economy but they are not going to lay down and take it. Itâs more of a matter of national pride at this point.
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u/CalebAsimov 1d ago
Dude, exactly, that's why diplomacy is about speaking softly and carrying a big stick, subtle threats and bribes so national pride isn't hurt. Give them a way to save face while doing what you want. Once you go on TV and just completely trash them, they have no way to save face while also doing what you want, so it's like, end of negotiation there.
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u/GlitteringChipmunk21 1d ago
S&P and NASDAQ futures are both down more than 6% right now. Ugly.
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u/vsMyself 1d ago
No they aren't. Futures closed at 415 today and are just today's price with a little after hours
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u/inconsistent3 1d ago
Lmao yes. You were naive.
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u/ProfessorrFate 1d ago
Big tariffs are so dumb and so harmful that most political and business leaders (and the markets) just assumed that Trumpâs tariff talk wasnât serious. They thought it was just a negotiating tactic w other countries and a political sop to grassroots rubes â itâs so obvious that big tariffs are bad that the administration would never actually do it. Because youâd have to be really, really dumb to do something like that. And then Trump did it.
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u/ItsGmoney64 13h ago
Yea lol. I got downvoted like hell for saying Iâd be ok with missing out on a few % upside if it means I can avoid the major downside risk to the tariff announcement. I sold about 1.5% lower than the most previous rally, but guess what, Iâm not swimming in red lmao.
People here need to differentiate between timing the market, and being risk averse. At the very least, not being risky enough to hold a full portfolio of equities at times of extreme volatility.
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u/joepierson123 1d ago
His reciprocal tariffs had nothing to do with the each country's tariff on us.Â
Instead he took a trade deficit ratio. That was a big surprise because it's much much higher
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u/Felanee 1d ago
Yes you were naive to think it was priced in. You can't price in something you can't predict.
- We didn't know what Trump would tariff.
- We didn't know how much Trump would tariff.
- We didn't know if he was bluffing.
- We didn't know if he was using it is only using as a bargaining chip for better trade agreements.
- We don't know how the rest of the world will react. (This one is a bit more predictable)
- We don't know how bad the potential recession will be.
FYI we still don't know these answers. For all we know, over the weekend he could rescind the tariffs. Only time can tell. And also its never too late to sell. Recession have like be historically like 30-40% drops from ATH.
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u/Unbentmars 1d ago
1: he said repeatedly he was going to
2: he said repeatedly he was going to put âhuge tariffsâ
3: he already put tariffs in place
4: itâs a stupid bargaining chip that, at best, causes people to walk away from the table
5: shit on peopleâs tables and their reaction is pretty predictable
6: thoroughly bad, for years. Weâre never getting back to where we are today because even if he immediately reversed course EVERYONE is seeing the stupidity and insanity. They are going to find other people to buy and sell with because markets and countries want to be able to depend on their trade partners.
If people truly didnât predict this or see it coming they really have been just engaging in wishful thinking
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u/Felanee 1d ago
As a Canadian I was very confident the market would tank so luckily I put my money where my mouth was. BUT I don't blame the market for not being able to predict the severity of the situation. They were guesstimating Trump's actions based on his interactions with Canada and Mexico. He said he would tariff them 25% across the board except for energy (10%) for Canada. End up not putting a tariff on anything under USMCA. If I'm not mistaken it's similar to Mexico. He also said he would put a reciprocal tariff on us but that didn't happen. So we don't know with trump. But yes I do agree, recession is likely.
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u/Zealousideal_Look275 1d ago
Every option sounds equally valid and invalid at the same time. Markets canât price thatÂ
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u/FinndBors 23h ago
- We donât know if and when he would roll them back either because someone hurt his ego or Congress stops them.
Congress only care about one thing: getting reelected. For republicans, this means supporting Trump, but if their constituents feel enough pain, they will vote to get rid of the tariffs.
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u/DeadByOptions 9h ago
You are absolutely so fucking wrong.
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u/Felanee 6h ago
If you are so smart, tell me whats going to happen in the next 2 week. Not even the next month. Will he...?
a) Maintain all the tariff
b) Reduce the tariff. If so by how much? For who? And for what goods?
c) Remove tariffs. And for who?
Bet you don't know. Because nobody does except maybe Trump. And he doesn't even know because he won't know how other countries will react. Will the broker a deal or attack back.
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u/InevitableBrush218 1d ago
Man I thought the same thing, Iâm like everyone knows itâs gonna happen, itâll probably shoot up. But nope, it actually went the way it should have.
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u/FaithlessnessDull336 1d ago
Sometimes the simplest answer is the right one, if the put it in dry without lube, it will be burning and shredding your anus
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u/jsboutin 1d ago
The issue is that tariffs werenât reciprocal in any sane definition. They were set at outrageous levels using a formula that made no sense whatsoever.
Tariffs themselves are an issue, but the horrible policy making they demonstrate is a broader concern.
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u/SingleRefrigerator45 1d ago
It has been reported he used an AI app to get to those numbers ~sigh~
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u/jsboutin 1d ago
Has it been reported or is that a guess? Iâm not finding anything conclusive except that some Grok apparently produces something similar.
Wouldnât surprise me though.
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u/SingleRefrigerator45 1d ago
TV, think it was CNBC I was snoozing. ChatGPT
Google this "trump use ai for the tariff numbers"
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u/jsboutin 1d ago
Yeah Iâm seeing a lot of âAI give that answerâ but Iâve not seen conclusive proof. Definitely would bet on it though.
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u/SingleRefrigerator45 1d ago
Apparently many have run his numbers in ChatGPT to verify it because it made no sense to financial bros.
Many will give it a whirl so I am sure the answers will come soon. But it really doesn't matter at this point the dude is bat shit.
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u/MessagingMatters 1d ago
I think the bigger issue was the numbers fed into the AI. Quite simply, they weren't tariff numbers, they were trade deficit numbers. It's fundamentally dishonest.
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u/rainman_104 1d ago
He used balance of trade as an attempt to decide how much to tariff. This is absolutely beyond stupid. Supplying too much USD in a normal trade environment should result in a decline in USD against all trading partners.
Countries holding usd to prop it up are fools but it's fine. It just gives the USA a ton of leverage over them. They usually take that money and buy treasuries anyway.
Using tariffs to drive away trade is going to hurt the entire planet including the USA.
We are heading to a global depression now. Such a doofus move.
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u/Potato2266 1d ago
People were expecting 10%, maximum 25% like Canada. No one was expecting ChatGPT tariff rates. Not even the penguins.
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u/Fun_Reporter9086 1d ago
Misery loves company:
RETAIL INVETSORS BOUGHT $4.7 BLN IN STOCKS ON THURSDAY, LARGEST LEVEL OVER THE PAST DECADE, JPMORGAN SAYS
Copied & pasted from Twitter, I am not going to type it out again tho.
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u/Funny-Entry2096 1d ago
What was priced in was likely that Trump would back off at the 11th hour like he did previously. That didnât happen so ⌠kablooey
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u/ZoraHookshot 1d ago
Ya I thought he would say he's doing 10% a month from now and markets would rally so I went all in
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u/Chrishall86432 1d ago
The public didnât know about Liberation Day. They still donât.
But yesâŚ..nothing is âpriced inâ right now. And nobody knows where or when the bottom is.
Donât sell. Invest in good companies and hold.
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u/Alone-Supermarket-98 1d ago
It wasnt so much that Trump implemented tarrifs, he has been talking about them for months. No surprise there.
It was the magnatude and method of implementation that caught people off guard.
Now, keep in mind that only one country (china) so far has announced retaliation tarrifs so far. Certianly there will be many more to come.
Also, no analysts have adjusted their earnings estimates or forcasts yet, and even after the recent drops, markets are still trading at premium valuations to LT mutiples.
Which for all you Ivy Leaguers with MBAs out there means the markets are not cheap, and there is more bad news coming
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u/Lykotic 1d ago
If it was a "sane number" and had been very targeted in nature the tariffs were probably at least mostly baked in.
The highest effective tariff rate since 1930 was never priced into the market. It was a crazy amount that people did not see coming. The market tells you that now and Nintendo itself has told you that by taking Switch 2 pre-orders off the planned date of April 9th as price is reassessed.
There was nothing rational about the tax rate or justification for those rates
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u/Miirob2 1d ago
Trump told the world that the USA did not want their business. He has threatened 4 countries, whether with war or annexation. He has called the EU pathetic. He has called China vachina. He has disregarded trade agreements. He said the world has raped and pillaged the USA. Then he put tariffs on almost every country. There is only one common denominator in this trade war. One party started a trade war and thought they could bully the world. It has backfired.
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u/DaySecure7642 1d ago
There were probably lots of strike price defenses earlier this week that pushed up the markets and gave people the illusion that the big institutions knew it would be fine. One good thing perhaps this prove that Trump is not on their side lol. He just did what he thought was right.
The effect of this trade war is probably permanent and still not fully priced in. The market probably won't go back to early 2025 for a very long time.
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u/sundaypop 1d ago
Average EU tariff to the US is 2%, They now get 20%. Switzerland tariffs are 0%, they get 10%
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u/fairlyaveragetrader 1d ago
Not really, you can't trade feelings, you trade statistics, we had a 45 vix today, that more or less translates to add. The one thing that is behaving a little different is the whole AI trade that was working. It's too early to tell but normally markets grow through rotation and that trade ran for a long time. It might still work but the upside of this whenever that comes, watch for what leadership actually is
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u/PaulblankAgain 1d ago
The stock market didnât price it in because the market thought âhe canât be that dumb right? Thatâs why he keeps delaying it, itâs a scare tactic.â Then he did it and shocked pikachu face happened
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u/terrymorse 1d ago
Unfortunately it's too late to sell at this point đ
If your portfolio is worth more than $0, it is not too late to sell.
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u/Itchy_Pudding_9940 1d ago
I think it's like that movie "don't look up".. everyone knew the asteroid was coming but couldn't fully accept it till they saw it
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u/threeriversbikeguy 1d ago
Maybe a bit. But no one at all (except insiders with WH ties) expected the highest tariffs in centuries.
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u/EntrepreneurFunny469 1d ago
Priced in is mostly a meme. Donât fall for that shit. Especially when claiming the priced in event is completely unknown.
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u/Shockingelectrician 1d ago
Yes in fact you were unfortunately. Might as well buckle up now and enjoy the ride. I wouldnât sell now because typically youâll miss out on big gains trying to time getting back inÂ
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u/jer72981m 1d ago
Why would you sell? You buy. If you dont have extra cash you up your retirement contributions. This is how it works folks. If you are about to retire you should be in safer investments, if youâre not, idk what to tell you except youâre probably going to live another 20 years so relax. The doom and gloom posts just prove how many people are overexposed in the market, inexperienced, and have no temperament
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u/Quixotus 1d ago edited 1d ago
You were not because they were, in a way, priced in, in the sense that smart money has long left the market. What is happening now is that dumb money, including wannabe hedge funds and unsophisticated institutional investors, are suddenly realising they were left holding the heavy bags, and that there's no support all the way down because the big players have long left. So, in this sense, tariffs were priced-in.
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u/AeonicRequiem 1d ago
All the cheap options showed the market was still in denial. I nabbed some 520 SPY puts the day before for like 26 bucks a pop. My only mistake was not buying more.
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u/Junglepass 1d ago
Yes. You are not seeing what Trump does to market confidence. The market likes stability.
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u/Decent-Photograph391 1d ago
Donât be so hard on yourself. A lot of people werenât expecting how crazy his stupid little tariff chart would look, like using the wrong metric to impose tariffs. Also, tariffing uninhabited islands, and a 10% tariff on countries that donât actually tariff US goods. Itâs beyond stupid. And I thought Trump 1.0 was bad.
Also, itâs impossible to know after the rout yesterday, that it would get even worse today.
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u/Jamickeymick 1d ago
Hey the way the media was talking the day before they thought they knew and figured liberation day might be a dud. The day before I think the big shots tricked us small traders into thinking it was all priced in and not much was going to happen. Why else would the S&P go up 37 points for no reason. Then bam. Big middle finger having just had a little rally to walk into a fire sale. Iâm starting to think it is all rigged for the inside the belt way and I-90 corridor elites and friends to keep their easy lifestyles going.
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u/RedbodyIndigo 1d ago
I think the issue was that no one believed that he would go through with it and, even if you did, you might not have believed the rates would be so high. People were truly surprised.
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u/Bushwhacker42 1d ago
I sold off most at the beginning of March because the roller coaster was just gaining momentum. A few good days had me second guessing, but decided to hold cash until liberation day. Honestly, still donât see any light at the end of the tunnel. Bought myself new tires and some other items that come from the US that will get tariffed instead of investing this month (Canadian).
If this doesnât convince the GOP to change course, might be time to stock up on non-perishable foods and a bug out bag.
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u/PermanentLiminality 1d ago
A reasonable set of tariffs were priced in. We got an unreasonable set and the market reacted
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u/Dread_Pirate_Chris 1d ago edited 1d ago
It was reasonable to think it could be priced in, but unreasonable to think it must be priced in. It's an unfortunate reality of the stock market that you never know until the news drops. It could just as easily have gone the other way if everyone had believed in 25% tariffs and we got 10% tariffs, but people did not believe he was going to pull the trigger or thought it would be at even lower levels.
If it's priced in when bad news drops, nothing happens. If it's overcompensated for, the stocks rise on bad news. If it's not priced in sufficiently, stocks drop.
Which will happen on the day? Nobody without psychic powers knows (and btw the people with psychic powers are living it up in the carribean, not running shady operations next to the tattoo parlor).
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u/JefeDiez 1d ago
They kind of were in looking at certain companies. Do you really think all these tech companies will stop bringing in hella cash? Oversold but itâs the American way.
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u/Rivercitybruin 1d ago
People thought he would backtrack or it would be like tariffs historically around the world
But we are dealing with someone mentally unhinged and completely clueless
So it was much much bigger than anything expected
And DJT will never admit hes wrong
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u/nobertan 1d ago edited 1d ago
I, for one, was not able to price in the tariff against the penguins. This has obliterated my calls on Heard Island index futures.
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u/LordlyCry 23h ago
it's not over yet. You'll see the impact of tariffs everywhere. This is like the beginning of the pandemic except it's self-inflicted, by one man. SMH.
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u/istockusername 22h ago
10% tariffs were expected but nobody thought he would put 30%-45% on all of the Asian countries weâre basically all American companies do production.
That brought uncertainty which is causing the market to react.
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u/BeefistPrime 22h ago
You can't price in someone as unpredictable as Trump. He could've called off the tariffs last minute or he could hit us with unexpected massive ones like he did. How do you price that in?
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u/ContributorZero 20h ago
In 6 months you may look back very differently on your statement that itâs too late to sell after a little 10 percent drop. That is more naive than not predicting how bad the tariffs would be before they were announced. Things are about to change in a way weâve never quite seen before, and historical benchmarks for how the stock market moves are no longer good precedent.
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u/Cif87 18h ago
IMO tariffs were kinda priced in. The market expected some tariffs against selected countries (mainly EU, china, Mexico, Canada) and towards selected goods. They didn't expect a blanket tariffs against the majority of earth's countries, even allies towards Trump's administration (taiwan or Argentina). I mean, tariffs helps taking back jobs that can be performed in tour country. Why tariff Nicaragua who exports mainly coffee?the US has no coffee production right now.is the US even capable of producing coffee?
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u/Zealousideal_Owl2388 17h ago
The impact is nowhere near priced in now even after 2 days of hard selloff. Expect profit margins to drop 30-40% across the board, which would give fair value to SPX in the $2000 range. A shock of this magnitude literally can't be priced in overnight
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u/fleeyevegans 15h ago
He made up random numbers he got from AI with no oversight because they don't have someone competent to do that. How can you price in made up numbers? Markets like rational decisions and policy. Investors run from circuses.
Other countries haven't responded yet. It will be a mixed bag but it will fill the entire news cycle with mostly negative financial news. I would imagine for weeks to months.
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u/TaxLawKingGA 14h ago
Yeah there were a lot of so called experts on YouTube, CNBC and such who were adamant that 4/2 would not be an issue and that the market had already priced in the tariffs.
In the words of Rick Perry: âOopsâ
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u/Independent-Ad1652 13h ago
Investment firms and companies spend millions of dollars on groups of professionals that do nothing but monitor these outcomes so yes I think it's fair to say a lot of this is priced in.
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u/DavidGQ 1d ago
I am not going to jump u because you are in red. Just like earning, you never hold a stock into earning. Sell it before then. I was all cash going into Liberation Day. Then went full port in PUTS after. I am afraid the market will go lower from here because we are heading into a recession. Just dont add more dips.
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u/Magicofthemind 1d ago
I bought some longer dated puts thinking it was a slow bleed but only a small hedge. Definitely thought today was not going to be like thisÂ
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u/shawn1969 1d ago
Fuck yes naive and foolish. This subreddit was full of these sentiments - that tariffs were priced in before before "liberation day" announcement.
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u/Zealousideal_Look275 1d ago
With this administration I donât think anything can be truly priced inÂ
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u/Crazy_Donkies 1d ago
I stand by 10% blanket tariffs weren't priced in. The initial drop from February to March was investors just shaving the enthusiasm off PE ratios. Taking a step back, if you will.
This being said, Liberation day was worse than expected. Therefore retaliations are worse.
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u/WhyAreYallFascists 1d ago
What you were really naive about is the international communities opinion of American corporations and the states as a whole. They truly hate us now. My wife is in Western Europe on business and itâs palpable. Canadian travel to the states down over fifty percent. When the loss of international sales starts to affect earnings, then things will get real wild.Â
âŚ. Or a couple over leveraged firms blow up and itâs a full on fiasco.
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u/UCACashFlow 1d ago
Of course.
Iâve been saying for a while now that a recession would hit in March-April.
I own one stock only, so I hedged with puts as long as I could for as cheap as I could.
All the sudden the entire market caught up this week and here I am at an all time high. Iâve been waiting since late August.
â˘
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