r/stocks • u/Chrissylumpy21 • 2d ago

Crystal Ball Post Is Black Monday Incoming?

So much fear in the markets and this time really feels different. All the Mag7 stocks are so hit by the tariffs our iPhones will probably cost $5,000 soon and as the world slows, people will use Amazon less, advertise less on FB/IG. No one is buying Tesla anymore. Who needs anymore AI chips, yet AI is decreasing Google searches.

I fear the world is realizing it all this weekend. Or is it just me that sky appears to be falling?

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u/DavidGQ 2d ago

I am bearish for the past two months. See my past posts. But be careful to go full port shorts. The bounce is coming and might squeeze some late shorts. Wait for the bounce next week, maybe Monday before reshort. Let the late shorts get squeeze first

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u/Dr-McLuvin 2d ago

How are you confident the market will keep going down? Trump could have a brain fart or Congress could just say no more tariffs.

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u/DavidGQ 2d ago

The current Congress will silently do his bidding. That is for sure. Here is what I think. I can't tell you the exact date and such but a summary of sort. I am a Technical Trader and there will be a bounce next week, how much bounce I don't know. But it will be just a short bounce. Not a full V Shape like Tom Lee predicted. We are only in 2nd inning of a 9 innings. Have you ever heard Trump admit he made a mistake? Just once? If anything, he always double down. Tariffs will raise inflation. Other countries retaliate will lead to jobs loss in the US. Once we hit recession, which will be in 3rd Q, then more selling. I expect bad earnings in Q2 and Q3. So yes, there might be a bounce here and there but the market will end the year at the low.

The only way I will go full port on longs is when Tariffs is over. Until there, I will add shorts on every pop and ride it down.

Earlier this week, I saw a lot of bullish posts and I warned them. One day bounce is not a trend. Be careful and don't add more longs. It takes multiples days to change the trend. Hope that helps

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u/bdjohn06 2d ago

This is also roughly what I've been anticipating. I think there's a good chance inflation numbers next week aren't dramatically different from last month, and there could be a modest bounce from that. However I think the GDP report for the end of April and the CPI report at the beginning of May could be the start of the actual bad news and stoke fears of stagflation.

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u/DavidGQ 2d ago

The consequences of tariffs we wont see until May and beyond like you said. Because current inventories are still pre tariff prices. Once retailers raise the price, that's when you know. Q3 earnings will be all tariffs. The bounces will trap new bulls.

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u/Tookmyprawns 2d ago

2/3 Congress will not overrule Trump. Trump owns the Republican Party. Literally a 0% chance that happens.