r/stocks • u/JewelerNo2606 • 2d ago
Advice Cliche time in the market matters
31 years old… lives through the 2020 pandemic scare and now the new tariff scare and I finally understand the meaning of “time in the market” I remember in 2020 when COVID was at its peak and all we saw was the increased deaths; global shut downs and peak uncertainty. Everyday turning on the TV was a scare; going to work at the hospital was a nightmare.
All I can say is ; seeing the stock market survive that and rebound to new highs reassured me that all will be ok. Now I now a lot of people will comment here… but this is different.. tARrifs … but it’s really not just another form of fear which humans will adapt too and overcome.
To all the young ones; I’m not a financial adviser but worse thing to do is panic sell. Find good companies with high profit margins low debt lots of cash on hand to wether the storm. If it’s too much work you can DCA into ETFs. You’ll be happy in 3-5 years.
Good luck and peace all; spreading positivity in a bloody environment :)
P.S I love the dips… give me more
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u/No_Technician7058 2d ago
The reason some people are extremely smart to sell now is in 12 months they may be FORCED to sell for significantly less as expenses rise and people lose their jobs if this continues.
Many Americans only save a few hundred a month, if that. If prices go up 20% (and they will, even products decoupled from tariffs) most Americans are going to be underwater month over month.
Look at you own financial balance sheet. What percentage could you see your expenses go up by before you're saving nothing? how about losing $1000/month? What do those numbers look like if you are then laid off? If you don't know these numbers, I would go check.
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u/zoinkinator 2d ago edited 2d ago
i appreciate the sentiment but for boomers contemplating retirement the potential impact to their lifetime savings may be devastating.
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u/Serious_Reply_5214 2d ago
Why would you be 100% in equities if you were planning to retire soon?
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u/zoinkinator 1d ago
the current administration is destroying the global economy. the last time this happened we were in wwii within 10 years. are you going to dollar cost average for the next 10 years and hope things recover? nope.
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u/DanielzeFourth 1d ago
There's nothing wrong being 100% equities as these historically have the highest returns. Therefore timing the market for example selling at the end of February when valuations were historically high while the uncertainty around Trump's policies were extreme would be a great example of how to time the market while being 100% equity. Timing the market isn't about finding the exact top and bottom every time. It's about decreasing risk when uncertainty or valuations increase.
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u/VegasWorldwide 1d ago
no no no. if you are retired or close to retiring there absolutely is something wrong being 100% exposed to equities. retirement is about peace. we invest aggressively in our 20/30's so we are not exposed 50+.
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u/IndefinitelyVague 1d ago
No you’re wrong. You don’t chase the highest returns closest to retirement. Highest returns= highest risk which you don’t want close to retirement. Almost every single target date fund from every big company shifts into bonds and more stable investments close to retirement.
This is one of the most basic principles of investing.
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u/DanielzeFourth 1d ago
If I need 60K per year to live and I have 4M in the S&P500, there is no need to panic even in a downturn. I'm planning on retiring around 45 and do not expect to leave equities, ever.
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u/IndefinitelyVague 1d ago
At your withdraw rate of 1.5% I wouldn’t be worried either. Most people are looking more in line with 3-4% withdraw rate.
If you’re 45 and retire and then have a 10 year downturn where you’re pulling $60k a year and more realistically have $2mil then yes you’re going to be more worried being 100% in stocks. 100% equities when you’re building wealth and buying is a lot different than 100% and being retired. More so concerning with a long retirement length like starting at 45.
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u/Last-Cat-7894 1d ago
To assume the average person constructing a portfolio has 4 million dollars invested is wildly off base. If you can get to that number, good for you. There obviously does come a point where your withdrawal rate is low enough that equities will always provide you enough cash to live, but to advise the average person to stay 100% in equities right before and throughout retirement is nonsensical.
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u/MikuEmpowered 2d ago
This is exactly the problem with "time in the market"
Time is not a luxury every investor can afford.
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u/Mommie62 2d ago
I am 63 , I feel like I do have time. 20-30 years likely. When they used to recommend retirees go to bonds at 65 their life expectancy was much lower. I think we’ll be fine. Will have to min withdraw some $ but only a few years worth. Sequence of returns won’t affect us forever plus our portfolio is still up far more than it is down in the last 2 years. I am not going to panic . It’s what is affecting the markets so much right now. I am sitting in 200k cash right now and waiting to deploy it.
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u/TheNesquick 2d ago
P.S I love the dips… give me more
Do people understand this is not a game? It’s not just numbers on a screen we are trying to beat? The stock market is just the first to react and then comes the real life consequences.
I see a lot of people in here saying: I love the dip, great opportunity to buy more, dca down and hell yeah.
Most of you are Americans and do you want to know the reality. In the next 6-12 months a lot of you are going to lose your job, if not you then your family or friends. A lot of Americans are about to get fucked. Come 12 months the stock market and buying the dip will be the least of your worries.
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u/ashm1987 2d ago edited 2d ago
But but but, there will be lots of new jobs in the US since everything will be produced there again!
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u/TheNesquick 2d ago
Lots of $2 jobs making shit to sell cheap in the rest of the world. Bring sweatshops back to the US!
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u/ashm1987 2d ago
I am sure the new generation of Americans will happily make the $0.50 Temu phone cases in the US.
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u/Free-FallinSpirit 2d ago
Idk bout happily, but certainly ignorant with no education and total focus on trying to scrounge for basic food and shelter, potentially water.
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u/littylikeatit 2d ago
This is what I’ve been saying to these commenters and I haven’t been able to articulate as well as you. When stocks tank, most people don’t have the luxury to buy up at attractive prices. They lose their job. And sometimes sell their portfolio to pay rent and food.
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u/isolatedzebra 2d ago
Lol The fear mongering is wild. Take a moment to introspect man.
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u/TheNesquick 2d ago
Why? I’m not in the US and my job is not in danger.
I just think it’s wild some people are cheering the destruction of their own country.
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u/pun_extraordinare 2d ago
!Remindme 1 year
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2d ago
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u/KopOut 2d ago
If this were a social media site from Europe or Asia, I think your point would be better, but Americans talking on an American social media platform about America centric things makes total sense.
Most Americans would NOT go onto a European Forum about Europe’s stock market and loudly make it all about America. The loud ones would, but most wouldn’t.
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u/JewelerNo2606 2d ago
Hopefully people are not dumb enough to invest if they don’t have cash to get through the next year. This is about people’s discretionary income
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u/TheNesquick 2d ago
This is about people’s discretionary income
Millions are about to lose that income. You do you buddy. I just think it’s insane how people are cheering for the people who are going to be fucked because of this insane nonsense.
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u/isolatedzebra 2d ago
Trumps an idiot but most the people who will be hurt by him (uneducated/low income) in America supported him. I can feel bad for Kamala voters and retirees but thr trumpers earned this
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u/JewelerNo2606 2d ago
No one is cheering off someone else’s misery. But opportunities are made when there is max fear in the market. I never buy when the market is super hot and all time high. I actually sell when everyone is super “happy and ecstatic”
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u/TheNesquick 2d ago
Good luck and peace all; spreading positivity in a bloody environment :) P.S I love the dips… give me more
Yes you are. You are cheering.
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u/babsa90 2d ago
I have a $15k put against $VTI, so I'm not exactly cheering but my position is up like 300% right now. Do I want the market to keep going down? Sure do, but I saw this coming and protected myself against it.
As many people kept saying in here for the last two months, don't time the market. Keep your money in the market and don't catch a falling knife. You didn't actually lose any money yet. Remember that this is an investment strategy you chose.
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u/JohnnySack45 2d ago
Oh wow, I can’t believe it. Are you really 31 years old and did you REALLY trade through the flash crash that occurred way back 5 years ago? Geez, that really is something. Well rumor has it there were a few market crashes before then, notably in the early 2000s and in the late 1920s which took a few years to recover from. Rumor has it that a lot of people lost their jobs which meant burning through their savings and liquidating their portfolios at a massive loss just to survive. I guess they were all just being alarmists though.
Hey everyone, just DCA all the way to the bottom and hang tight for 3-5 years. If you need money to buy massively inflated groceries in that time because of some senile, unpredictable idiot started a trade war just ask your parents for a small loan of a million dollars. Thanks for the sage advice.
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u/Fast-Benders 2d ago
LOL, OP was 14 in 2008. He's still one of the "young ones". He doesn't know how bad it can get. When people start losing their jobs and defaulting on their mortgages, you are going to see some real pain. Unless the administration reverses the policy soon, this recession is going to be slow and painful.
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u/ActuallyYoureRight 2d ago
I can’t wait for this new wave of brain dead investors to get absolutely wiped out. They’ll DCA until they realize they should have been selling and waiting a year or two
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u/Urc0mp 2d ago
I almost guarantee anyone who DCA for a long time into the market is going to outperform someone who finds good opportunities to sell and buy back later. Funnily enough I bet you know this already lol.
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u/ActuallyYoureRight 1d ago
I’m not criticizing DCA, I’m criticizing the mindless NPC way people talk about it. There are times when it’s better to build up a stack of cash for a while. Not even trying to time the market by selling what you already have, but just hold off on the DCA and buy a larger chunk when things have settled and bottomed out at lower prices
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u/Treezy1993 2d ago
That’s why you should have a 6 month emergency fund? I personally have a year in cash. You shouldn’t be investing in stocks without cash reserves in first place.
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u/Hugh_Mungus94 2d ago
Dont be so poor and dont have kids and you wont have to burn thru your savings lol. I have enough to survive on my own for the next 3-5 years even without a job while still dca-ing
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u/JewelerNo2606 2d ago
No worries man; if you don’t have enough savings to get through this time then don’t invest ! Please sell your shares low so we can scoop them up. We will see you at the finish line
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u/Treezy1993 2d ago
You’re getting downvoted but you’re correct lol. Sounds like there are people with no cash on here that were all in on stocks
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u/JewelerNo2606 2d ago
It’s weird; people really think Google is going to zero after tariffs. Idk man; the downvoters are the sheep. They all went in at prime high and now are panicking. And all I’m trying to do is help the young wolves set up their future
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u/briefcase_vs_shotgun 1d ago
No one thinks google is a zero. Rightfully ppl know this could be much more drawn out and painful than your anticipating. 2020 was scary but the bailout was historic…and caused massive inflation. Prices can’t afford another round of inflation like that. You’re right if you can keep your job. If you can’t dca means nothing
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u/Treezy1993 2d ago
Right.. I’m same age btw. My 401k is down 13% in 1 year period. let’s go sell it all and pay an early penalty and taxes because the us economy is over like these doomers think. Just makes no sense for the vast majority of us
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u/Renegade_Trader 2d ago
I lived through the 2000 bubble and let me tell you: Not every dip is an opportunity to buy.
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u/Treezy1993 2d ago
Looking back, the data says otherwise? In fact, you’d be up 238% if you invested at the very peak of the dot com bubble and never re invested until today. If you DCA’d gains would even be a lot higher.
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u/Renegade_Trader 2d ago
Check for instance AT&T.
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u/Treezy1993 1d ago
There’s no reason to argue with you after that reply. Why would someone be all in on 1 stock let alone AT&T. I’m referring to sp500, or even the total market. Sure your correct that some big companies could fail or stagnate. There is no guarantee Apple will trade higher 20 years from now. But it’s very likely the broad market will be higher
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u/DisastrousCopy7361 1d ago
The stock market was saved in 2020 by the US government printing absurd amounts of money and dumping it in the market...it wasnt natural...that money has mostly filtered up to the mega-rich by now
We are still not to far off all-time highs, and their isn't much resistance on the way down as the chart has basically been straight up since 2020
The market traded sideways from 2000-2012
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u/CanaryPutrid1334 2d ago
You haven’t seen shit. You need to be doing more listening and less talking , Junior.
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u/ashm1987 2d ago
Yes, well the best companies will always find new ways how to cut down costs and make profits again, but it might take some time. Moving production from China to Vietnam won't happen within a week.
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u/orangehorton 2d ago
Lol 31 year old who lived through one short crash where the government heavily supported the American economy is giving advice
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u/Minute-Method-1829 1d ago
I don't think it's just a dip, but more so a restructure and reevaluation. That beeing said, i'm sure that we will touch the monthley 200ma's on spy and qqq and that will be my time to go in and just hold. Because rn everything is bad and i like to buy when stuff is bad so im well positioned when stuff get's better.
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u/Smilodon_Rex 1d ago
I wrote my MA thesis on the 20th-century economic crises that plagued farmers through the 80s. 2020 was nothing. Just wait till people start offing themselves because they lost it all, like farmers did in the 80s after over investing in land and equipment, and then the market fell out from under them. This is only the beginning unless orange man reverses course.
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u/Reasonable-Concept84 1d ago
Another one of those time in the market persons, when the facts are that the market can crash up to 50% and you could have gotten out when shit his the fan and get in any time between -20% and -50% to be up loads more than when you stayed in the market.
Warren Buffett went out of the market. I'm sure I trust his strategy more than some wannabe on Reddit.
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u/BiglyStreetBets 2d ago
People lose jobs and their houses in recessions.... You obviously have never lived through a true recession if your claim to "experience" and not being one of the "young ones" is a 2020 "crash" that took like 1 month to recover.
People lost their jobs and homes in 2008. Grown men were crying on national television interviews in front of what used to be their homes, from the heart break of their lives falling apart, losing their jobs, their homes, their wives. I don't think you can really "DCA brooo" in those scenarios.