This week was a rough one. I took a big hit on my leveraged SOXL. With leveraged options it is expected to have drastic swings such as mine. I understand leveraged ETFs isn't for everyone. Good luck out there

Global supply chain along with uncertainty is being heighten due to the Tariff policies of the Orange Man.

Here are my trades this week:

$HIMS

• Initial Position:
  • Sold 4 shares at $33.07 (average cost: $30.78)
  • Net profit: $9.52
  • Catalyst: HIMS announced they're adding Eli Lilly's weight loss medication Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro, as well as the generic injection liraglutide, to their platform
• Second Trade (April 4):
  • Bought 2 shares @ $24.24 for -$48.47
  • Sold @ $26.25 for +$52.50
  • Quick profit: $3.68 (after fees)

Dunk on me but that is $13 more than I started with.

$NBIS

I rolled my $NBIS covered calls to 04/11

• Roll Transaction:
  • Buy to Close: NBIS 04/04/2025 $33 Call for -$3
  • Sell to Open: NBIS 04/11/2025 $33 Call for +$10
  • Net Credit: $7

YTD +$918 (6.58%) with a win/loss ratio of 68.03%.

$GOOG

Added 1 share of Google. Aiming for a small swing here awaiting tech sector to bounce back (which it will, eventually)

$EVGO

Covered calls from last week expired worthless for a net credit of $5

Many would be freaking out over my SOXL and major unrealized loss. Here is my plan:

Once I get assigned this week on $SOXL I plan to sell covered calls and further collect premiums. This will allow me to further lower my adjusted cost basis to eventually manufacturing the win. One week at at time. As the Trump tariffs situation play out one thing that im confident in is the emergence of AI and real world use.

Semi sector will bounce back as will AI infrastructure due to the increasingly global demand in AI. This is not an IF but a WHEN question. Buckle up for another volatile week. Come back next week and see if i can bounce back.

What I'm Holding Now
115 shares of $EVGO (av: $3.47). CCs expired worthless from previous week.
3 shares of $GOOG (avg: $167.69)
100 shares of $NBIS and $33 CC 04/11 exp
1 $SOXL CSP $19 04/11 exp
1 $SOXL CSP $14 04/11 exp

I still maintain $100 weekly deposit on Wed and Fri splits. In addition to occasional swings for small profits (small wins stack up nicely at the end)

All cash is one way of course, but are you buying VIX-based products? SQQQ? Call credit spreads?

Let's share ideas and hedging strategies...

Lots of talk on the Sunday shows about not backing down. Cast your vote and let's see how good we actually are at forecasting

Did you know when you sell a put, for theta or otherwise, you can set a stop to buy back and limit your loss instead of taking assignment? Thank you for coming to my ted talk.

I know premium chasing is inherently dumb. However, with IV so elevated it’s hard to resist something like this. I also wouldn’t mind owning tqqq at 30 if worst comes to worst and I do get assigned.

The Nasdaq entered bear market territory on Friday's session. The Russell entered a bear market on Thursday. The S&P sits at -17.41% from the closing high on 2/19.

The reason I'm stating this is not because the total percentage off the highs, even though this is important. I've always found it a lot easier to see understand what's happening in the market through the lens of volatility, especially with the S&P 500.

We all know the VIX closed at 45, which is super high, 98.7th percentile. The last time we closed over this level was 3/9/2020, the second down leg of the covid crash. Prior to that, 10/3/2011, 8/8/2011, 5/20/2010. Then prior to that, we had an extended period between Sept of 2008 and Mar of 2009 where we routinely closed over 45. Why is this important? These levels typically aren't seen outside of a significant market event, which historically has been -16% (2010 sell off), -19.67% (2011 taper tantrum) and -34% (covid crash).

For context, the 1 StDev % for a daily move in the S&P, is 1.76%. Friday's move was between 3 and 4 StDev's.

There is a paper on SSRN that uses a 4-stage Markov model to identify regime changes such as bull and bear markets and bull corrections and bear rallies. The Image below is a graph of that model using the latest data. (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1939486). I'm including a table at the bottom of this post with the table of the data.

This sub doesn't allow multiple image posts, so I'm linking to a chart with the rolling 1-month (orange), 3-month (purple) and 1-year (blue) sigma for the S&P 500. The green line is the VIX (implied 30D volatility). You can see from the blue line (1YR) that volatility has generally been on the rise since the august correction in 2024. The orange line is the 1-month rolling sigma, which is now at the highest level since 2020 and not typically seen outside of a bear market. https://imgur.com/a/1c4JJWG

This is the same chart with the same rolling sigmas, but for the VIX. https://imgur.com/a/06nuJQR

Finally, its important to look at the VIX term structure and how far over the tips of the skiis we get during big sell offs. The anatomy of a basic sell off will put the cash VIX above the 3M VIX (backwardation). When we start to come out of backwardation is typically a good buying opportunity. Not always, there are no set rules.

This is an image showing the VIX term structure. On friday, we closed at the highest level of backwardation since 2020. https://imgur.com/a/yaanBPP

Is the market crashing? I would consider the last week to be a crash. That's not a technical term. There is significant macro economic associated with the reasons behind this sell off. Anything can change on a dime in the current state, but there is nothing to suggest that this is over. BE VERY CAREFUL WITH TAKING ON RISK IN THIS MARKET. Both up and downside risk are likely underpriced. Bear markets have face-ripping rallies when people rush to cover their shorts. That doesn't mean things are over. For anyone trading through the last bear market, we saw +10% rallies, only to reach lower lows.

4-Stage Markov Switch Regime Probabilities (1. Bear Market, 2. Bear Rally, 3. Bull Correction, 4. Bull Market)

2025-03-03 | 0.0625 | 0.1475 | 0.7900 | 0.0000
2025-03-04 | 0.0488 | 0.1725 | 0.7788 | 0.0000
2025-03-05 | 0.0413 | 0.1938 | 0.7638 | 0.0013
2025-03-06 | 0.0450 | 0.2037 | 0.7512 | 0.0000
2025-03-07 | 0.0400 | 0.2150 | 0.7412 | 0.0037
2025-03-10 | 0.0512 | 0.2213 | 0.7275 | 0.0000
2025-03-11 | 0.0250 | 0.2475 | 0.7250 | 0.0025
2025-03-12 | 0.0125 | 0.2587 | 0.7212 | 0.0075
2025-03-13 | 0.0063 | 0.2650 | 0.7288 | 0.0000
2025-03-14 | 0.0025 | 0.2700 | 0.7262 | 0.0013
2025-03-17 | 0.0000 | 0.2725 | 0.7200 | 0.0075
2025-03-18 | 0.0000 | 0.2725 | 0.7225 | 0.0050
2025-03-19 | 0.0000 | 0.2712 | 0.7075 | 0.0213
2025-03-20 | 0.0013 | 0.2712 | 0.7063 | 0.0213
2025-03-21 | 0.0000 | 0.2725 | 0.7063 | 0.0213
2025-03-24 | 0.0025 | 0.2725 | 0.7188 | 0.0063
2025-03-25 | 0.0025 | 0.2725 | 0.7100 | 0.0150
2025-03-26 | 0.0100 | 0.2675 | 0.7113 | 0.0112
2025-03-27 | 0.0200 | 0.2650 | 0.7050 | 0.0100
2025-03-28 | 0.0537 | 0.2575 | 0.6887 | 0.0000
2025-03-31 | 0.0700 | 0.2512 | 0.6562 | 0.0225
2025-04-01 | 0.1350 | 0.2238 | 0.6038 | 0.0375
2025-04-02 | 0.3550 | 0.1650 | 0.4500 | 0.0300
2025-04-03 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000
2025-04-04 | 1.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000 | 0.0000

Crispy skin, creamy mushrooms, crunchy breadcrumbs on the salad. What's not to love? Happy Saturday, ya filthy animals.

A while back I opened a short 4800 put and two long 3100 puts in ES that expire in ~50 days. The short is down about 7K while the longs are up about 1K. I've been thinking how best to manage this and would appreciate thoughts. Here the options I've considered:

* Do nothing. I have buying power in reserve but I don't want to take assignment so I feel like do nothing could work against me if I have to more aggressively handle this later if ES continues to drop.

* Close for a loss. Seems premature. I'd think that between now and 50 days from now there could at some point be a bounce and decline in IV to make an exit more favorable than now. But that might be wishful thinking.

* Buy a long put just above the short put to protect it, and finance this with a couple shorts just above the two longs I have further OTM. This would remove most of the "valley of death" risk, but it would be for a risky debit. I could also sell a call perhaps to help reduce this debit.

These seem like the obvious plays, but is there something I'm not considering that would be more effective?

So, as the title suggests, I would like to ask for a second opinion on this matter and if I am safe.

I am currently using the wheel strategy on various stocks and also on LETFs (I know, maybe not ideal), keeping 50% cash, similar to what some people here do, and I am using Interactive Brokers.

I’ve also invested around €10,000 in the S&P 500 and in 2x leveraged S&P 500 ETFs.

My aim was to keep excess liquidity well above my maintenance margin, ideally, several times higher. For example, if my maintenance margin is 10, I was targeting an excess of 40.

However, following the recent news about the tariff war and the market downturn, I noticed yesterday at market open that my excess liquidity had dropped below the maintenance margin. (I realize I probably need to hold more cash going forward to avoid this situation.)

I quickly closed some positions at a minimal loss and rolled others. This brought my excess liquidity back above the maintenance margin.

Shortly after, while researching hedging strategies, I received a margin call notification. I suspect that Interactive Brokers may have updated their risk parameters, because moments earlier everything appeared to be ok.

Without hesitation, I closed two more positions and bought a put option on NVDL, trying to form a short put spread with my existing sold put position.

Additionally, I opened a bear call spread on NVDL and a risk reversal on TQQQ.

As of now, my maintenance margin is approximately 7,120, and my excess liquidity is around 20,000.

The total collateral required for all my cash-secured puts is $44,907, while I currently have $41,226, including premiums (with about $36,400 in cash). I initially believed this would be sufficient to avoid needing any hedging strategies.

Furthermore, I’m planning to deposit around €1,400 this week and at least another €500 by the end of the month.

So,
Do you think I’m safe from a margin call in the near future?
What hedging strategies would have been ideal in this situation or could be useful moving forward?
And if I close the bought puts on Monday, do you think that i would be safe?

When did you enter these, and how are you managing them?

I will post a separate comment with a link to the detail behind each option sold this week.

After week 14 the average premium per week is $902 with an annual projection of $46,878.

All things considered, the portfolio is down $59,833 (-19.57%) on the year and up $372 (+0.15%) over the last 365 days. This is the overall profit and loss and includes options and all other account activity.

All options sold are backed by cash, shares, or LEAPS. I do not sell on margin, nor do I sell naked options.

All options and profits stay in the account with few exceptions. This is not my full time job, although I wish it was. I still grind on a 9-5.

Today started a $600 per week contribution streak. The next goal is $400k; although it has been a rough start. I will continue to post through the carnage for better or worse.

The portfolio is comprised of 91 unique tickers up from 96 last week. These 91 tickers have a value of $214k. I also have 150 open option positions, down from 155 last week. The options have a total value of $31k. The total of the shares and options is $245k.

I’m currently utilizing $25,800 in cash secured put collateral, up from $25,500 last week.

I sell options on a weekly basis. I prefer cash secured puts and covered calls. Sometimes I’m ahead of the indexes and sometimes I’m behind. My goal is consistency in option premium revenue.

Performance comparison

1 year performance (365 days) Expired Options 0.15% |* S&P 500 -1.42% | Nasdaq -2.87% | Dow Jones -0.73% | Russell 2000 -11.04% |

YTD performance Dow Jones -9.62% | S&P 500 -13.54% | Russell 2000 -18.13% | Nasdaq -19.15% | Expired Options -19.57% |*

*Taxes are not accounted for in this percentage. The percentage is taken directly from my brokerage account. Although, taxes are a major part of investing, I don’t disclose my personal tax information.

I have been able to increase the premiums on an annual basis and I will attempt to keep this upward trend going forward.

2025 & 2026 & 2027 LEAPS In addition to the CSPs and covered calls, I purchase LEAPS. These act as collateral to sell covered calls against. You may have heard of poor man’s covered calls (PMCC). The LEAPS are down $20,827 this week and are up $17,959 overall. See r/ExpiredOptions for a detailed spreadsheet update on all LEAPS positions including P/L for each individual position.

LEAPS note 1: the 2025 LEAPS expired 1/17/25. They were up $36,440 overall with a 233.74% increase. The major drivers were AMZN and CRWD.

LEAPS note 2: After holding for 2 years, I exercised an AMZN $80 strike from 2023 up +$11,395 (+463.21%) and CRWD $95 strike from 2023, up +$21,830 (+663.53%)

Last year I sold 1,459 options and 401 YTD in 2025.

Total premium by year: 2022 $8,551 in premium | 2023 $22,909 in premium | 2024 $47,640 in premium | 2025 $12,621 YTD I

I am over $101k in total options premium, since 2021. I average $26.97 per option sold. I have sold over 3,700 options.

Premium by month January $6,349 | February $5,209 | March $727 | April $336

Top 5 premium gainers for the year:

HOOD $1,787 | CRWD $969 ARM $862 | CRSP $599 | PDD $585 |

Premium in the month of March by year:

April 2022 $115 April 2023 $1,221 April 2024 $2,853 April 2025 $336

Top 5 premium gainers for the month:

CRWD $371 | CCL $106 | SOUN $105 | GME $90 | SMMT $61

Annual results:

2023 up $65,403 (+41.31%) 2024 up $64,610 (+29.71%)

Commissions: I use Robinhood as a broker and they do not charge commissions. There is a an industry standard regulation fee of $0.03 per contract. Last year I sold just over 1,400 contracts which is just over $40.00 in fees paid in 2024. In 2025, the contract fee is $0.04, which would push the fees up to around $60 based on current projections.

The premiums have increased significantly as my experience has expanded over the last three years.

Hope you all are hanging in there in this mess of uncertainty. Make sure to post your wins. I look forward to reading about them!

I’m not an index trader, but the SPX chart has been the main chart window in front of me for 3 days. Looking back at the Covid dip, this doesn’t get better for a minimum of 7 weeks. Recovery could be a long way off as well, but I’m looking at long call strategies when that starts.

Calls are too expensive.

Instead of minimizing the downside, my calls have me trapped 🤡

Surely that's safer than this clusterf***

Keep it friendly and civil; this is not WSB and automod will censor your posts at will for unsavory and unfriendly remarks. Try to keep shit posting and bragging to a minimum.

I have seen a lot of downturns over the decades and most of the people I hear in person or in the media talk about how their portfolios are getting killed. I mean the average Joe investor with a 401(k), etc. did not dump their stock Wednesday when the tariff announcement was made. And they will most likely just suffer through the drop and hold for the long-term. Also, a lot of mutual funds and investment funds have a mandate to hold stock. So where is the huge sell volume mainly coming from? And sorry if this is a dumb question, but I have never seen it explained.

First options trade. Can't roll out without taking a loss. That went well haha ;)

At least it's not some garbage. I'll just hold it until the senile narcissist quits fucking up the great economy that the other senile narcissist created for us! Thinking I'll just open up some more of these covered puts just a bit further OTM. I really think this tariffs thing is just a bluff to convince everyone to come suck him off a little and as soon as they do he will cancel the tariffs and everything will be right as rain. If not, I anticipate I can hold an S&P etf for a couple decades if I need to wait that long for it to return.

Just thought others might want to point and laugh at a dummy losing money on his first options contract, even if only on paper for now. If so, enjoy.

And where are the Sweet Bobby posts (he hasn’t posted on YouTube in several days) Tom King etc

Lets just say its a cheap buying opportunity