r/wallstreetbets • u/OSRSkarma Flipping at the Grand Exchange • Feb 14 '25

Earnings Thread Weekly Earnings Thread 2/17 - 2/21

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u/onamixt Feb 21 '25

You’re betting that the share price will be up 50% under 4 months (another quarter and then some). How probable do you think this is?

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u/booniepepper17 Feb 21 '25

Your logic is flawed. Breaking even on this option before expiration doesn’t mean it has to increase by 50%. There’s arguably a long enough time frame and you’re acting as if the stock dropped 20%

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u/onamixt Feb 21 '25

I’m aware of that. Anyway, SP has to grow fast enough to counter theta decay of whatever left of your calls. Good luck with that.

I managed to cover my unrealized loss of CLOV this way tho: my Feb 21 $5 calls were down like 90% after the last earnings, SP were drilling down every day, I was lucky enough catch a reversal just in time and averaged my calls barely enough to break even. And just when I sold the stock bombed again. It’s not an easy fit to make this right

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u/booniepepper17 Feb 21 '25

Well, turns out you were right. I’d say your insight prompted me to get out at open, and I did before it tanked ~20% lol. Ppreciate it