r/wallstreetbets 1d ago

Discussion 5 rate cuts šŸ˜®

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u/idunnoiforget 1d ago

Listen to what Trump says about it. He wants other countries to pay their fair share through the tarrifs and stop taking advantage of America and bring back American manufacturing. And if you assume that he is not lying and means what he says then the only real logical conclusion is that he is an illiterate moron with an understanding of economics that is less than that of a second grader.

The finance YouTubers will have you believe he's intentionally crashing the economy in a 4D chess move to force the Fed to lower rates so that the national dept can be financed at a lower interest rate.

And there's the theory that he's crashing markets so he and his rich friends can buy up things for pennies on the dollar and basically copy paste the oligarch structure that was formed in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Realistically it could be a combo of the above

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u/AGI2028maybe 1d ago

I think any of the 4d chess theories are pretty dumb. The ā€œthey crash it to buy it for cheapā€ is particularly stupid. Elon Musk is probably going to end up losing over $100,000,000,000 (if not way more) from this lol. Thereā€™s no way this is going to be net positive for him. The ā€œoligarchsā€ wealth is in the stock market so crashing it so they can buy things for cheaper is robbing Peter to pay Paul.

The reality is just: Trump isnā€™t very informed and is stuck in the past. He rightly recognizes that free trade is a race to the bottom that ends with us losing jobs to essential slave labor in undeveloped countries. Buts heā€™s also rash and stupid and belligerent so he canā€™t intelligently target the worst offenders and instead just indiscriminately tariffed everyone.

TLDR: Trump correctly identifies a problem (that other countries are disinclined to see due to the wealthy not wanting anything to change) but is also a stupid person so he puts forth a solution thatā€™s even worse.

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u/one_excited_guy 1d ago

He rightly recognizes that free trade is a race to the bottom that ends with us losing jobs to essential slave labor in undeveloped countries. Buts heā€™s also rash and stupid and belligerent so he canā€™t intelligently target the worst offenders and instead just indiscriminately tariffed everyone.

what is the right way to do it, im wondering? i dont get the sense that this even being a problem is widely accepted, let alone that anyone has an idea how to fix it

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u/AGI2028maybe 1d ago

Wait, you donā€™t think businesses having the option to pay Bangladeshis 50 cents an hour is a problem for a low skill American worker looking to make a living wage in a similar industry? Come on bro. Would you be cool with us just removing the minimum wage? If not, what is the real difference between paying American workers slave wages vs. paying foreign workers slave wages instead? In a free trade world, there is no difference.

what is the right way to do it

Targeted tariffs on problematic countries and specifically aimed at hitting industries you want to promote back home.

So, imposing a huge tariff on Chinese electric cars might be fine if we were working to increase electric car production here, change our sourcing to get materials from friendly countries, etc. But Trump just put tariffs on everyone and everything. So all he has done is place a 10-40% sales tax on everything imported.

Americans will eventually get this stuff from American companies, but it will take several years to build up the production and, in the meantime, we will all suffer. And so will our allies who we are fucking over for no reason.

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u/one_excited_guy 1d ago

Wait, you donā€™t think businesses having the option to pay Bangladeshis 50 cents an hour is a problem for a low skill American worker looking to make a living wage in a similar industry?

i do, but thats not the sense i get from most of the people talking about the tariffs, they sound to me like they think theres not even a problem worth tackling.

Targeted tariffs on problematic countries and specifically aimed at hitting industries you want to promote back home.

makes sense. we'll see if thats what we end up closer to, or if he really doesnt have a plan to negotiate and just does want blanket fire