r/Bitcoin • u/rBitcoinMod • 3d ago

Daily Discussion, April 04, 2025

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u/Perfect_Cost_8847 3d ago

Bitcoin has comfortably broken NASDAQ correlation and I couldn’t be happier. Instead of gold, people are buying Bitcoin. If it makes it out the other side of this without collapsing, Bitcoin might actually become the next gold.

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u/harvested 3d ago edited 3d ago

Little early to pop the champagne on that isn't it?

I'm not saying it's not coming, but I don't think it's happened yet.

Also, what are we calling champagne in a post tariff world? Sparkling freedom juice?

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u/BullyMcBullishson 3d ago

It hasn't... yet. I'm not sure why so many are cheering this.

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u/alineali 3d ago

Because in the past in such circumstances we would see a huge drop, and right now it is still crabbing. Obviously different behavior

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u/BullyMcBullishson 3d ago

It's ridiculous to take a data point from one day, and state bitcoin has broken its correlation with the NASDAQ.

It's worth keeping an eye on, sure. I will change my opinion if the trend holds, but certainly not after 1 days worth of information.

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u/BitcoinBaller420 3d ago

You're not wrong, but it's a pretty important data point and exactly the kind of thing the bull side wants to see. This isn't just some random market down day, this is THE market down day, a major news event effecting global markets that requires a major and rather sudden repricing of assets. For bitcoin, the champagne pops very slowly, it's ok to celebrate when you get a still-slow-but-a-lot-faster-than-normal performance win like this. This period of trading will be a data point for portfolio stress tests, and bitcoin will be in there again as a top performing asset. It's the kind of thing that builds confidence in the hodler base and ultimately what drives the adoption of bitcoin as a savings technology.

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u/BullyMcBullishson 2d ago

I like how today finished.

It's time to see how the weekend holds up.

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u/alineali 3d ago

Not as much broken as might have a chance to break, as in previous years with overall markets drop we would see huge drop for bitcoin - but not this time, and this really never happened before. I personally expected at most that drop will be around 25% and not 50, but it just holds, it is really small wonder.

And actually in this specific case "one data point" might be enough because we are not talking about data points really, but about perceptions, which at least somewhat depend on past behavior. If people will see that bitcoin holds there is better chance they jump in, which will help it to hold and so on. So it very much might be that one noticeable event will change future patterns.

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u/BullyMcBullishson 3d ago

So you agree. It's not "comfortably decoupled itself" as OP says.

I'll give you another 1 day data point that could help the decouplimg argument.

The VIX cleared 40 and bitcoin holding 82k.

Again, I'm watching, but I'm not busting out the popcorn yet.

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u/alineali 3d ago

I do not agree that it "comfortably decoupled itself", but to me this is something to celebrate - I have never seen bitcoin holding so strong in such bad circumstances, so this is really good news. I'm not going to sell anytime soon, so I am interested in trends and underlying changes, which might help planning my future actions.

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u/BullyMcBullishson 2d ago

Day 2....

This weekend could be interesting.