r/CanadianConservative 9d ago

Opinion A commentary on polls

26 Upvotes

Hello friends,

The subreddit has been abuzz about polls, pollsters, aggregators, and speculation about them. Given that we are in election season, we are going to see a lot more of them. You need to know how to interpret them appropriately as well as understand how to differentiate between them.

We begin with top-line numbers which are the percentages we see at the top of the report/poll. It is these numbers that are usually reported and the numbers that are often used by aggregators. They are often the final product of the poll and in Canada are usually the sum of regional averages that have been broken down and weighed appropriately. They are often weighed for regional/geographic distribution so that they more accurately reflect the population. Speaking of weighing and averaging, regional/geographic breakdowns aren't the only demographics taken into consideration; pollsters try to ensure that other important socio/economic demographics and gender information is accurate to the Canadian average as well. Sample sizes are also important, as the smaller or larger a sample size is, the more or less weighing will need to be done.

Most pollsters and aggregators will include a breakdown of their results and methodologies in their reports.

So what are some important things to look out for when it comes time to reading and interpreting Canadian polls?

  • Regionals: If they are inaccurate, have small sample sizes, or seem off, it will impact the entire poll
  • House effect: Established pollsters will often have a bias toward one party
  • Accuracy: How right were they at predicting the results of previous elections?
  • Sample Sizes: How many people were actually polled?
  • Questions Asked: This one doesn't need an explanation other than saying that depending on how a question is worded it can yield different results. This is especially the case with contentious or controversial issues.

So in Canadian politics which regionals should we pay attention to?

  • Alberta: She's by far one of the most reliable to track. If the Tory numbers are off from the norm, we can usually take that poll with a grain of salt.
  • Québec: Highly volatile but only to a point. If the different pollsters have wildly different results or the results vary within too short of an interval, we know something is amiss. Underrepresentation of the BQ and overrepresentation of the NDP are often good tells for a wonky poll here.
  • Ontario: This is where we'll see more minute but gradual changes but usually we don't see it being a runaway for the LPC or CPC. If one of the two is too high, we can conclude there may be some doubt. The NDP is also at play here, if they are in a 3-way or too high, we also know there's something amiss maybe.

Between the 3 though, Alberta & Québec are the easiest to read to sus out wonky polls.

Please also take into consideration that every polling methodology has different means of questioning Canadians (phone, internet survey, etc) as well as different margins of error. Pay attention to these. The tighter the margin, the more confident the pollster is about it's accuracy.

Finally, I want to share a point on voter efficiency and the phenomenon known as the Shy Tory effect. Both are very important to take into consideration when reading and interpreting polls.

When it comes time to voter efficiency, the Liberals in Montréal and the BQ in general have the strongest voter efficiency, which translates to concentration of support in areas which then in turn to seats. This is why you can see the Conservatives leading or winning the plurality of the vote in top-line numbers but the LPC winning the most seats or the BQ taking +30-40 seats with 7-9% of the vote. It's because these votes are concentrated in certain locations and can also get just enough votes to win. What's more, the Conservatives often have very high numbers regionally that can pull the topline higher as well - example is the high leads in the prairies often mean that our topline numbers reflect the strength of our vote there and can over-estimate the national numbers.

As for the Shy-Tory effect, a lot of pollsters have a hard time accurately capturing the actual Tory voter numbers. Tories and soft-CPC voters are less willing to share their voting intentions, which means on election night sometimes the Tory vote would have been underestimated by as much as 3-5%.

Take these things into consideration whenever you read the polls and the aggregators. It is not all doom and gloom. Go deeper than looking at the topline.

Thank you!


r/CanadianConservative Apr 07 '23

Discussion A playbook for making change

23 Upvotes

Given the amount of posts/comments I see from people who want to see change in Canada, I decided I'd provide some information on ways you can actually make change.

Feel free to comment with additional suggestions.

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  1. Get involved with your local riding associations for both federal and provincial politics. You can generally email the contact us email for a political party and say you want to get involved with the riding association and they will put you in touch with those running it. This is a great way to meet like-minded people and actually contribute to making changes. Activities might include cold calling potential donors, fundraising events, door knocking, sign distribution, etc. If you want, you can even run within the riding association to become the MP/MPP or one of the other key positions like President or Financial Agent.
  2. Donate to the political parties and advocacy organizations you support. It really makes a difference. Money is a tool these parties use to promote their ideals, and they need resources. Bonus: You get tax deductions (for political donations) which reduce how much this actually costs you.
  3. Get involved in professional groups / union groups / parent associations / university or college groups / etc. These organizations typically have some sort of structure with elected positions, and items that can be voted on. Unfortunately, they tend to get dominated by the loudest 1% of people who typically lean far left and have nothing better to do so this becomes their life to satisfy their saviour complexes / hunger for power. A lot of people want regular people to run and get involved, but can't be bothered to do it themselves. For students, look at getting involved with your student unions and you'll get a crash course in dealing with extreme leftists.
  4. Vote! Especially in federal and provincial elections, but in other elections too. School board positions, trustees, municipal elections, student union elections, etc. Ensure far left extremists aren't getting voted into these positions where they can slowly corrupt everything.
  5. Opt-out of DEI activities as much as you can. If your employer, school, etc. asks you for your race/gender/etc. and there's an option for "prefer not to say" always choose that. If you're asked to add pronouns but it's not mandatory, don't. If your company holds optional training or events that promotes ideological concepts you disagree with, don't attend. If they have a DEI committee, consider joining and challenging their ideas (ex: if they have quotas for race, ask where they came up with the numbers, and what constitutes success, and how do they define race, and how do they avoid prejudice against other groups?). A lot of DEI activities are straight up anti-conservative, illogical, chase justice through injustice, and run by ideologically driven people, and they are typically completely unprepared for anyone actually challenging their ideas in a logical manner. Read up on Christopher Rufo's work on these subjects: https://christopherrufo.com/, especially on the ways the left plays language games to hide their true agenda.
  6. Learn the rules. For federal politics, you can visit https://elections.ca/. There are similar websites for the provinces as well (example: Ontario's site is https://www.elections.on.ca/en.html). You'd be surprised how few people actually understand how the administration of political groups works in Canada.
  7. Protest peacefully. When there are events held by conservative groups to protest, attend and support if you can. Just being there in person is enough, you don't have to go wild. Don't be turned off by the crazies that show up, that happens regardless of the protest and regardless of ideology. Be one of the sane ones who brings a reasonable message to the event simply by attending. Call out and disassociate from bad behaviour if possible (i.e. random Nazi guy at the trucker convoy protest).
  8. Vote with your wallet. If companies are supporting ideas you dislike, stop giving them your money. You can find alternatives for just about anything. Hit their bottom line to send a message.
  9. Vote with your feet. This one is much harder in practice, but if you live in a place that is beyond redemption, look at other cities/provinces where you can move to and make a change. Don't contribute to the tax base of a place that hates you if you can help it. Americans do this a lot because they have a lot more options much closer together, but it's still possible in Canada.

r/CanadianConservative 5h ago

Social Media Post Pierre Poilievre: "I believe that a dollar in the hands of the person who earned it is better spent than in the hands of the politician who taxed it."

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122 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 5h ago

Social Media Post Carney on housing and immigration: “We made mistakes and let in far too many people...We did not have capacity, housing or social services...Canadians did not get the education they deserved”...proceeds to ask us to vote for him and Sean Fraser anyways.

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59 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 4h ago

Social Media Post Hey Grandma and Grandpa, if you care about your grandkids, vote Conservative.

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40 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 6h ago

News Poilievre says he'll end early bail, house arrest for domestic crime offenders

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47 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 1h ago

Social Media Post Conservative Canadian Leader Pierre Poilievre was just asked bluntly by a Canadian journalist: "As Prime Minister, would you instruct [your military] to prepare war plans to defend us against the United States?"

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Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 3h ago

Discussion Hold Liberals Accountable to Their Own Rules

24 Upvotes

"Make the enemy live up to its own book of rules."

- Saul Alinsky, Rules for Radicals

A lot of Liberals, when confronted about Carney's decidedly below-average French, will ask you why you as an Anglophone Canadian even care. This is the same party that would talk about it nonstop if it was Pierre with these French skills. For the Liberal Party, being bilingual has been treated as an expectation the Prime Minister and leader of their party must have.

Not only this, but Carney's flip flop on the carbon tax, which they said last year was giving more back to Canadians, must be addressed. They smeared opponents of this policy as climate deniers. Now Carney has dropped it to 0 conveniently during the month of an election.

They told you a resume did not matter when Trudeau was in. Now, it's everything under Carney.

They say rich people need to pay their fair share, while their leader's company avoided paying billions in Canadian taxes.

They derided Pierre for not getting that security clearance, while saying nothing as Carney defended a candidate who wanted his Conservative opponent to be handed over to the Chinese Communist Party for a massive bounty.

They told you Trump was serious in wanting Canada to be the 51st state, but was using reverse psychology when praising Carney.

They told you Canada was a post-national state with no real heritage; that the Canadian flag was effectively a white supremacist symbol; that our founders were evil and deserve to have no statues, streets, or schools dedicated to their names. Now they, alongside a celebrity who's lived in Manhattan for years, want you to put your elbows up for them.

Never forget.


r/CanadianConservative 8h ago

Discussion Door knocking today in Toronto (St Paul’s)

55 Upvotes

Angry looking bald guy opens the door and says “go fuck yourself. You are misguided. I think you should go and suck trumps cock”

Why are liberal voters so angry?


r/CanadianConservative 6h ago

Discussion Was this a ban worthy comment?

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34 Upvotes

I thought r/onguardforthee was supposed to be an open, Canadian sub. No bigots allowed. It seems it's a bigot only sub, where everyone hates on Pierre, and any content aside from Liberal Love is banned.


r/CanadianConservative 1h ago

Discussion The liberals will overreact to every single thing the conservatives do and take articles misinformation at face value without reading them.

Upvotes

So I opened r/canada, and sorted by new to keep up on news that hasn't been posted here yet, and I saw an article about Pierre defending an MP who denies residential schools, and the article title was total clickbait but the libs on that sub didn't even read it and immediately started calling Pierre "pro genocide" and a "bigot" but if you actually the article (like me) you discover that he never defended the MP and what the MP said was nowhere near shat the title might it to be. One liberal user with a brain cell (hard to believe) actually posted in the comment section that it was clickbait but it got swallowed by all the comments saying if you vote conservative you're pro genocide and a bigot. In conclusion the libs are fucking stupid.


r/CanadianConservative 9h ago

Article John Ibbitson: Poilievre’s critics are dead wrong. We do, in fact, need to talk about family fertility

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68 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 2h ago

Social Media Post Peter Njenga, the Liberal candidate for Prince George-Peace River-Northern Rockies, previously compared himself to Hitler since they are both "short guys" who had to overcome fears.

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13 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 9h ago

Opinion LILLEY: Mark Carney avoids taxes but expects you to pay your 'fair share'

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48 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 3h ago

Polling April 4, 2025 - Poilievre's Conservatives statistically tied with Carney's Liberals

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15 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 5h ago

Social Media Post “Trudeau's contribution was not to build Canada but to destroy it, and I had to come in and save it. Together, we must reconstruct our grand alliance, of west and east, of English and French, New Canadians and old. We must commit to unity, to change, to growth and prosperity” - Brian Mulroney.

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21 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 11h ago

Article Mark Carney has helped Brookfield avoid $5.3 billion taxes since 2021 (Official NDP Website)

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57 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 5h ago

Social Media Post This Is What Liberal Boomers Are Like

16 Upvotes

https://x.com/CarymaRules/status/1908357744308215982?t=Z5QsbMVlnYPCI_alTaARyw&s=19

Liberals in this country. Especially 65+ are the country's most toxic and evil people.


r/CanadianConservative 7h ago

Social Media Post Same person 1 year apart. April 2024: Paying the carbon tax puts more money in your pocket! April 2025: Eliminating the carbon tax puts more money in your pocket!

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22 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 6h ago

Social Media Post EKOS has Liberal polling higher in Alberta than Quebec

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19 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 7h ago

Social Media Post Steven Guilbeault pretends threats to Canada's culture are coming from the US

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16 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 1h ago

Article Why Canada is on the cusp of a housing construction crisis. Immigration system bringing in wrong type of workers, warns industry

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Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 6h ago

Social Media Post CBC News is now all about actively attacking the political views of sports figures to prop up their preferred political narratives and domestic candidates

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12 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 19h ago

Video, podcast, etc. We're not gonna take it!

Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification

107 Upvotes

Will this be the new theme song for PP Rallies?


r/CanadianConservative 2h ago

News "Lockdown declared at Parliament Hill East Block: PPS"

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4 Upvotes

Wtf is going on?


r/CanadianConservative 4h ago

News Man accused of assaulting Saskatoon judge was wanted on earlier assault charge at time of attack

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6 Upvotes

r/CanadianConservative 1h ago

Discussion Do they even need to ask these questions?

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Upvotes

The Commie Broadcast Corporation Propaganda seem to always ask this worthless question. The reason and answer imo is simple or straightforward.OIL and Natural Resources.