r/CanadianConservative • u/nimobo • 3h ago
r/CanadianConservative • u/OttoVonDisraeli • 9d ago
Opinion A commentary on polls
Hello friends,
The subreddit has been abuzz about polls, pollsters, aggregators, and speculation about them. Given that we are in election season, we are going to see a lot more of them. You need to know how to interpret them appropriately as well as understand how to differentiate between them.
We begin with top-line numbers which are the percentages we see at the top of the report/poll. It is these numbers that are usually reported and the numbers that are often used by aggregators. They are often the final product of the poll and in Canada are usually the sum of regional averages that have been broken down and weighed appropriately. They are often weighed for regional/geographic distribution so that they more accurately reflect the population. Speaking of weighing and averaging, regional/geographic breakdowns aren't the only demographics taken into consideration; pollsters try to ensure that other important socio/economic demographics and gender information is accurate to the Canadian average as well. Sample sizes are also important, as the smaller or larger a sample size is, the more or less weighing will need to be done.
Most pollsters and aggregators will include a breakdown of their results and methodologies in their reports.
So what are some important things to look out for when it comes time to reading and interpreting Canadian polls?
- Regionals: If they are inaccurate, have small sample sizes, or seem off, it will impact the entire poll
- House effect: Established pollsters will often have a bias toward one party
- Accuracy: How right were they at predicting the results of previous elections?
- Sample Sizes: How many people were actually polled?
- Questions Asked: This one doesn't need an explanation other than saying that depending on how a question is worded it can yield different results. This is especially the case with contentious or controversial issues.
So in Canadian politics which regionals should we pay attention to?
- Alberta: She's by far one of the most reliable to track. If the Tory numbers are off from the norm, we can usually take that poll with a grain of salt.
- Québec: Highly volatile but only to a point. If the different pollsters have wildly different results or the results vary within too short of an interval, we know something is amiss. Underrepresentation of the BQ and overrepresentation of the NDP are often good tells for a wonky poll here.
- Ontario: This is where we'll see more minute but gradual changes but usually we don't see it being a runaway for the LPC or CPC. If one of the two is too high, we can conclude there may be some doubt. The NDP is also at play here, if they are in a 3-way or too high, we also know there's something amiss maybe.
Between the 3 though, Alberta & Québec are the easiest to read to sus out wonky polls.
Please also take into consideration that every polling methodology has different means of questioning Canadians (phone, internet survey, etc) as well as different margins of error. Pay attention to these. The tighter the margin, the more confident the pollster is about it's accuracy.
Finally, I want to share a point on voter efficiency and the phenomenon known as the Shy Tory effect. Both are very important to take into consideration when reading and interpreting polls.
When it comes time to voter efficiency, the Liberals in Montréal and the BQ in general have the strongest voter efficiency, which translates to concentration of support in areas which then in turn to seats. This is why you can see the Conservatives leading or winning the plurality of the vote in top-line numbers but the LPC winning the most seats or the BQ taking +30-40 seats with 7-9% of the vote. It's because these votes are concentrated in certain locations and can also get just enough votes to win. What's more, the Conservatives often have very high numbers regionally that can pull the topline higher as well - example is the high leads in the prairies often mean that our topline numbers reflect the strength of our vote there and can over-estimate the national numbers.
As for the Shy-Tory effect, a lot of pollsters have a hard time accurately capturing the actual Tory voter numbers. Tories and soft-CPC voters are less willing to share their voting intentions, which means on election night sometimes the Tory vote would have been underestimated by as much as 3-5%.
Take these things into consideration whenever you read the polls and the aggregators. It is not all doom and gloom. Go deeper than looking at the topline.
Thank you!
r/CanadianConservative • u/TheHeroRedditKneads • Apr 07 '23
Discussion A playbook for making change
Given the amount of posts/comments I see from people who want to see change in Canada, I decided I'd provide some information on ways you can actually make change.
Feel free to comment with additional suggestions.
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- Get involved with your local riding associations for both federal and provincial politics. You can generally email the contact us email for a political party and say you want to get involved with the riding association and they will put you in touch with those running it. This is a great way to meet like-minded people and actually contribute to making changes. Activities might include cold calling potential donors, fundraising events, door knocking, sign distribution, etc. If you want, you can even run within the riding association to become the MP/MPP or one of the other key positions like President or Financial Agent.
- Donate to the political parties and advocacy organizations you support. It really makes a difference. Money is a tool these parties use to promote their ideals, and they need resources. Bonus: You get tax deductions (for political donations) which reduce how much this actually costs you.
- Get involved in professional groups / union groups / parent associations / university or college groups / etc. These organizations typically have some sort of structure with elected positions, and items that can be voted on. Unfortunately, they tend to get dominated by the loudest 1% of people who typically lean far left and have nothing better to do so this becomes their life to satisfy their saviour complexes / hunger for power. A lot of people want regular people to run and get involved, but can't be bothered to do it themselves. For students, look at getting involved with your student unions and you'll get a crash course in dealing with extreme leftists.
- Vote! Especially in federal and provincial elections, but in other elections too. School board positions, trustees, municipal elections, student union elections, etc. Ensure far left extremists aren't getting voted into these positions where they can slowly corrupt everything.
- Opt-out of DEI activities as much as you can. If your employer, school, etc. asks you for your race/gender/etc. and there's an option for "prefer not to say" always choose that. If you're asked to add pronouns but it's not mandatory, don't. If your company holds optional training or events that promotes ideological concepts you disagree with, don't attend. If they have a DEI committee, consider joining and challenging their ideas (ex: if they have quotas for race, ask where they came up with the numbers, and what constitutes success, and how do they define race, and how do they avoid prejudice against other groups?). A lot of DEI activities are straight up anti-conservative, illogical, chase justice through injustice, and run by ideologically driven people, and they are typically completely unprepared for anyone actually challenging their ideas in a logical manner. Read up on Christopher Rufo's work on these subjects: https://christopherrufo.com/, especially on the ways the left plays language games to hide their true agenda.
- Learn the rules. For federal politics, you can visit https://elections.ca/. There are similar websites for the provinces as well (example: Ontario's site is https://www.elections.on.ca/en.html). You'd be surprised how few people actually understand how the administration of political groups works in Canada.
- Protest peacefully. When there are events held by conservative groups to protest, attend and support if you can. Just being there in person is enough, you don't have to go wild. Don't be turned off by the crazies that show up, that happens regardless of the protest and regardless of ideology. Be one of the sane ones who brings a reasonable message to the event simply by attending. Call out and disassociate from bad behaviour if possible (i.e. random Nazi guy at the trucker convoy protest).
- Vote with your wallet. If companies are supporting ideas you dislike, stop giving them your money. You can find alternatives for just about anything. Hit their bottom line to send a message.
- Vote with your feet. This one is much harder in practice, but if you live in a place that is beyond redemption, look at other cities/provinces where you can move to and make a change. Don't contribute to the tax base of a place that hates you if you can help it. Americans do this a lot because they have a lot more options much closer together, but it's still possible in Canada.
r/CanadianConservative • u/the_motoring_mollusk • 3h ago
Discussion Why aren't the scandals of the previous liberal government more talked about?
Why aren't the scandals of the previous Liberal government more talked about?
There are quite a few that come to mind — SNC-Lavalin, the green slush fund, the ArriveCAN scandal, and Randy Boissonnault, just to name a few. I'm probably missing others.
The ArriveCAN one in particular feels almost blatant.
An app projected to cost approximately $80,000 balloons to an estimated $59.5 million dollars. A two-person IT staffing firm, GC Strategies, received $19.1 million. They weren’t even the actual software developers — they were just a staffing firm.
And this wasn’t a one-off. GC Strategies had been awarded 34 government contracts since 2015, worth a total of $59.8 million.
Not directly related to this, but worth noting: the finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned hours before tabling the budget, after crushing the $40 billion deficit guardrail and pushing Canada’s fiscal deficit to $61.9 billion for 2023–2024.
Given Mark Carney’s financial background, you'd expect him to acknowledge the staggering mismanagement under the previous government, especially in the finance department. Instead, Chrystia Freeland was sworn in as Transport and Internal Trade Minister in Carney's cabinet.
It makes no sense why such an underperforming finance minister was given another critical cabinet role, especially by someone who should understand the scale of the financial debacle under her watch.
r/CanadianConservative • u/feb914 • 7h ago
Polling Liberal lead cut in half overnight in Nanos tracking (+11 to +6)
r/CanadianConservative • u/each_thread • 1h ago
Opinion Canada’s New Democratic Party has lost its way under Jagmeet Singh’s leadership
r/CanadianConservative • u/Few-Character7932 • 20m ago
Polling Young People Have Only Themselves To Blame
I don't like boomers and how they're ruining this country. I fall under 18 to 29 category. If only half of eligible voters in this age pool shows up to vote we can't complain about rising rent prices, unaffordable housing, lack of job opportunities and the fact that the feds don't care about us. We didn't bother to show up to vote.
If you know someone in your life between 18 to 29 that's complaining about Canada all the time, make sure they show up to vote.
r/CanadianConservative • u/nimobo • 1h ago
Social Media Post CTV with the latest polling update. “It is very fragile...The Conservatives are closing the gap...As things settle down with Trump, the playing field is almost level...1 in 5 Canadians will make their final decision, 72 hours before they vote”
r/CanadianConservative • u/nimobo • 2h ago
News Retired Toronto Police Executive Who Joined Chinese International School Flagged in Canada’s Election Interference Inquiry Replaces Paul Chiang as Liberal Candidate
r/CanadianConservative • u/nimobo • 14m ago
Social Media Post Justin Trudeau is out door knocking to help Carney win an election
r/CanadianConservative • u/yamiyo_ian • 1h ago
Discussion Why is neither the CPC or Liberals talking about immigration policy at the moment?
Smh I think it was the most important policy question the orangutan went nuts.
r/CanadianConservative • u/thisisnahamed • 9h ago
Polling Most Important Factors When Deciding to Vote by Age Group : Source (Canada_Sub)
Holy shit guys, this is a boomer election. They are convinced that TRUMP is the main issue concerning Canada. And they fail to recognize all the shortcomings of the last 10 years.
The only thing that is going to make a difference of election day is the age group of people voting; and this should make all of us nervous.
If Germany and US's election is an indication - then if young people get out and vote - then Pierre has a strong chance to get a majority.
r/CanadianConservative • u/Dry-Spring-5911 • 2h ago
Discussion Nanos poll went from +11 LPC to +6 in 1 day
Lol Nanos poll was showing 11 less for LPC on April 3rd and then on April 4th it’s +6 seems super suspicious
r/CanadianConservative • u/nimobo • 3h ago
News EXCLUSIVE: Calgary police won’t disclose citizenship status of semi-truck driver in fatal hit-and-run
r/CanadianConservative • u/nimobo • 12m ago
Social Media Post Does anyone recall a single CBC story about talking to your kids about living paycheque to paycheque after the lost decade of Liberals?
r/CanadianConservative • u/origutamos • 6h ago
News Liberals’ lead over Conservatives narrows to six points
r/CanadianConservative • u/origutamos • 6h ago
News Terrifying Vancouver Island home invasion caught on security camera
r/CanadianConservative • u/nimobo • 2h ago
News Peel police arrest 2nd person, lay more charges after $5 million worth of trailers and freight stolen
r/CanadianConservative • u/CadMan7873 • 18h ago
Discussion Went out canvassing today
West of Mississauga Ontario. Vibes are surprisingly good. Lots of young people locked for Consevatives. Hesitant about lawn signs because the moralistic lib fanatics are literally ripping them up/vandalizing property or targeting property. Pretty wild that in a 1st world country can’t have views that contrast the narratives of these buffoons.
Over 40-50% conservative. Would say the people locked liberal are boomer types.
Overall get out and vote, ignore polls ground work looks good. Election of our lives - if you’re able to volunteer you can have a good impact. Let’s do it !
r/CanadianConservative • u/resting16 • 14h ago
Video, podcast, etc. All they're asking for is a bright future — For a Change
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r/CanadianConservative • u/GD_Studio • 4h ago
Discussion How much do the debates really change things?
I'm asking because it didn't seem to change much in Ontario's election. I know provincial elections are different from federal, and there was low turnout, but how many people actually tune into the debates and change their minds about who they're voting for? How many people who don't pay attention to politics actually watch and have their minds changed?
I'm just curious about this, cause i want to be optimistic but I'm also trying to be realistic about the CPC's chances
r/CanadianConservative • u/wolfshark91 • 12h ago
Discussion First time Conservative supporter, 95% there, but I have anxiety... Tell me Im wrong or out to lunch with me speculations
As mentioned, likely voting conservative for the first time. Ive been following PP since his first viral youtube speech video back a couple years ago, back when the Trudeau hate was going strong. My worry is that I dont know enough about his platform, or his true intentions. Hes seemed to have revised some of his stances, definitely his messaging once the MAGA fallout came to fruition the last couple months. And so it brings doubt to what I think his ACTUAL intentions are. I have a couple hard lines, things that I believe are inherently part of being Canadian and proud to be. Healthcare for example, I know it sucks, I've lived through its failures. But none of those failures would push me towards privatization. I fear his, and the conservative view on healthcare could make healthcare less accessible and costly. His stance on cutting Federal programs, could greatly impact my line of work. Federally funded projects (mainly infrastructure) drive a huge part of the economy. Things like public transportation improvements, infrastructure improvements, have historically been the target of conservative funding cuts. Although I don't depend on them, when my father was still alive, he depended on services like ODSP, disability and social service programs. I've seen the importance of these programs, and it would be a huge disservice to my late father to support an agenda that would have significantly impacted his well being. If PP comes in as the same type of wrecking ball as trump towards the programs that make up our identity I would have a hard time supporting him. Please convince me Im misguided
r/CanadianConservative • u/joe4942 • 2h ago
Opinion The Future of Canadian Conservatism
r/CanadianConservative • u/nimobo • 3h ago
News Canadians with foreign spouses being refused Canadian visas, immigration lawyers say
r/CanadianConservative • u/Camp-Creature • 1h ago
Discussion Desiree Fixler explains the dark side of ESG and Net Zero (she was in the WEF with Carney)
Absolutely worth the time to watch. She still wants to believe in ESG / Net Zero but she found herself unable to ignore the fact that ESG was being set up for particular companies (the so-called climate cartel) to profit from ramping up fear and coercing companies to comply with ESG policies.
r/CanadianConservative • u/nimobo • 1d ago